Bullish Words from One Brownstone Brooklyn Broker
We asked a broker we know and trust how things are going. Here was the response: It is extremely busy. Buyers are out in droves. A lot of them have their places sold already or in contract and are very motivated. Or else they are just extremely motivated based on interest rates, lame rental selection…
We asked a broker we know and trust how things are going. Here was the response:
It is extremely busy. Buyers are out in droves. A lot of them have their places sold already or in contract and are very motivated. Or else they are just extremely motivated based on interest rates, lame rental selection out there and lower prices to buy. Now we are seeing deals come together fast for a lot of listings and a fair number of places are having 6-15 people bidding on them within the first couple of weeks a property comes on the market. Location is a big selling point now. Prime in all the neighborhoods we serve moves very fast. It is interesting how things changes so suddenly after January 1. It will be interesting to see whether this will translate to more listings coming on the market when sellers start realizing things are moving briskly, or if inventory will still stay low, which could (gasp…) raise prices down the road. ‘Never enough inventory’ is a constant mantra brokers and buyers are saying for prime properties.
Interesting, no?
Yeah, there was a piece on CNBC this morning about the Manhattan market “Fighting Back”.
We can have these ‘rah rah’ sessions all day but how can the market sustain a real, sustainable rebound without dealing with the bad debt (preforeclosures, submerged HELOC’s, bad commercial loans, etc) that is secretly attached to bank balance sheets (including those of the big 4)? Then you have soverign debt (hello Greece – unresolved!). Then you have talks of US credit getting downgraded.
That report on 105 repos at Lehman has put bank balance sheets on blast. The whole rally from the March lows was based on Congress legalizing mark-to-model accounting (rather than mark-to-market which would have instantly detonated Citi and many others). That’s how Enron blew up. That’s how Lehman blew up. Fraud (whether sanctioned by our laws or not – universal fraud). Deception.
The banking system is insolvent. Today’s buyers, though purchasing for 20% or so “discounts” from peak, are going to get hurt. Serious downside. The government is borrowing and spending to patch a 10% hole in GDP. Interestingly, a -10% change in GDP is called a depression.
Then you have soverign debt (hello Greece – unresolved!). Then you have talks of US AAA credit getting downgraded. And total outstanding debt (therefore money supply) is contracting. This is deflationary despite all the “printing”.
Looney today, bombshell tomorrow (as in the near future). You’ll see.
I’ve been asking this for months to no avail: How have NYC pre-foreclosures changed since the market peak? You know, the ones that banks can’t manipulate. When you’re 60 or so days behind, it’s an automatic default.
Brownie, can you similarly get a bear on here tomorrow (a real bear) – perhaps an investor/developer? That would also be interesting.
***Bid half off peak comps***
And besides Dave, Merrill doesn’t hire people with permanent fecal plugs. So, I’m out… Maybe Goldman does though.
Somehow this pic encourages me…
http://jasonkarpf.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/lloyd_blankfein.jpg
Wow, DeLapp your comment gives me hope re: putting our prewar 1BR in Prospect Heights on the market in a few months…
As much as it pains me to agree with Pete about anything, I have to agree with him here. I’d add Brooklyn Heights to his list though. Very little inventory. I also agree with Gem – I’m seeing properties go for over ask after a bidding skirmish (if not an all out war), and I’m also seeing properties go at or very close to ask, though I’ll add that these properties are, IMO, well-priced to begin with.
I know only anecdotal but two friends are in the process of closing in ditmas park for pre-war one bedrooms. Both were bidding vs others. Only about 5% below ask for both and both apts need work.
It is mid-march….and if sellers were waiting for so-called ‘spring selling season’ to list, I don’t see it.
Really not much out there in area where I check
(CarrollGard, CobbleHill,BoerumHill).
LOL, joe.
I hear Merrill Lynch is looking for a new strategist.
——————–
Not enough room for more than one know-it-all on this site for you??
Probably a good time to sell, rent for a few years, and buy back at higher interest rates and lower prices.
Posted by: joeingowanus at March 16, 2010 9:38 AM
I hear Merrill Lynch is looking for a new strategist. If you are certain about all those things coming out the way you predict, you can make a lot of money for yourself and your clients.