Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now…
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now our second data point shows an equally bearish disposition: 93 2nd Street, which generated a predicted selling price of $914,379, just closed for $1,086,312; in our defense, we said at the time that “We could see it getting pretty close to” the asking price of $1,125,000. Interesting, eh?
House of the Day: 93 2nd Street [Brownstoner]
It’s not a seller’s market. It’s not a buyer’s market. It’s a sucker’s market.
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 11:01 AM
This is about the stupidest thing you’ve said.
Is it a market bottom, yes or no? If no, then these people overpaid. They may need housing now; they may have fallen in love with their particular pile; they may have money to burn. But those are separate questions. Unless you’re willing to call the bottom here, then they overpaid, period.
Who thought this would all play out in four or five quarters? This is a fun parlor game, but really, do you think this is the end of economic hardship, service cuts, and credit complications? I know one good swallow makes your month, Dave, but one swallow doth not a summer make.
DIBS is right. I sold my house in ’06, and I’m ready to own my own home again. I’ve made offers on a couple of properties I like (outbid on one, awaiting counter on the other). I don’t consider myself a member of Team Bull or Team Bear. Like lechacal, I believe market prices will continue to go down for some time. Nonetheless, when I find a property I really like, at a price that works for me, I’m ready to pull the trigger now rather than wait for the possibility that the price of THAT property MAY go down another 10%. Sales like 2nd Street are about the wants and needs of the buyer and seller involved in THAT transaction, NOT about what the overall market is doing.
Smudge: the prompt in the widget says “your appraisal”, not “guess what it sells for”. True.
Plus if you took all the bids on any property, only one would usually be the highest – the sale price. All the other bids will be below the sale price. The sale price is the highest bid so I’m not sure comparing it to this widget this is any kind of an indicator at all of the real estate market. Sure ain’t Case Schiller.
Since I’m not savvy about finances or real estate, when I was looking I only considered places w/in my price range & then made decisions based on how much I liked the house & what kind of condition it was in.
I imagine that other buyers do a similar thing.
It took 3 years but I’ve been happy here for 25.
I agree with Dibs
we can all argue about the housing market and what we might think a particular house is worth on a given street, but he’s right – there are MANY buyers out there who have money and are buying with emotion and their needs in hand. I don’t call that stupid at all. Sure, we would all love a discount on things we buy, but if the item is worth it emotionally, we will buy it. The buyers still got a deal as they didn’t pay asking – so there you go!
I’ll admit that this house went for more than I expected.
I still think they overpaid, and the value will decline over the next few years.
But what do I know?
“For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street…which sold for…a shade less than the asking price…but…more than widget voters predicted…”
It’s not a seller’s market. It’s not a buyer’s market. It’s a sucker’s market.
One more notch. The bottom must be in.
***Bid 3X peak comps***
I love the logic of some of the team bear extremists. If a price is low, that is proof of the market heading down fast. If a price is unexpectedly high, it’s just proof the market still has a way to go. Team bear has set up a perfectly insulated argument that is internally consistent and impervious to facts. Right or wrong, they always know what to say.
No one’s arguing statistical significance, brick. But the data point may be interesting enough to watch to see if it holds.
If I ever need to sell, I will take some comfort in the fact that the rantings and ravings on this site don’t actually seem to drag down the price. If you want to buy a HOTD, you offer the widget price at your peril.