Brokers Find a Silver Lining in Autumn Data
Real estate analysts and brokers are still looking for a silver lining—a sign that the profitability of the boom years hasn’t completely vanished—and they are currently looking at inventory data as a sign of hope. The week after Labor Day is a common milestone for the real estate business: the summer season has ended, vacationers…
Real estate analysts and brokers are still looking for a silver lining—a sign that the profitability of the boom years hasn’t completely vanished—and they are currently looking at inventory data as a sign of hope. The week after Labor Day is a common milestone for the real estate business: the summer season has ended, vacationers are returning, and usually there is a small increase in the number of listings. This year, the number of post-Labor-Day listings on the market in Manhattan were similar to last year’s, reports The New York Times. Even though prices are still dropping, companies like Miller Samuel and StreetEasy say this could mean that transaction activity and inventory are stabilizing, which might indicate an end to the downward spiral. As for prices, the median asking price after Labor Day in 2007 was $1,050,000; it was $1,100,000 in 2008; and it dropped to $860,750 this year. Or, breaking it down, studios went from $525,000 in 2007 to $429,000 in 2008 to $399,000 in 2009; one-bedrooms went from $785,000 to $775,000 to $675,000; and two-bedrooms went from $1,412,500 to $1,599,500 to $1,250,000. Hall Willkie, the president of Brown Harris Stevens, gave the Times a less broker-centric view of the numbers: In many ways, it’s going to be a healthier market … It will be more affordable to more people, which is more sustainable. A lot of money was made during the boom years, but I don’t know if it’s such a great world when people with good jobs and a good income can’t buy a home.
Looking for the Bottom [Brownstoner]
The Look of Autumn [NY Times]
e are in a dead market and will be in a dead housing market for a very long time. Buyers do not want to buy at over inflated prices and sellers don’t want to sell short, It would make them feel very stupid for overpaying for something they should have not do so for. If sellers don’t lower their asking prices double didget iflation will eat away at their asking price over time.
Buyer’s Market or Seller’s Market?
Despite reading in the Times that prices are down it seems to me that the decline in sale price hasn’t really effected the Clinton Hill / Ft Greene market as drastically. I recently put a bid on a condo that went into competition and sold for 25k over asking price. At a second place, the sellers are holding out for a price that is 50k over what they paid for their home in 2008. Aside from brand new luxury Condos which, I am uninterested in, there seems to be a lack of inventory and asking prices are not, “bottom of the market”. In the 400k to 550k range, you’d think there would be more opportunity for 2 bedrooms. I was hoping to get a steal in a buyer’s market but find myself competing over scraps at prices above my means.
So, what kind of market are we in?
so… are there going to be more places on the market? do people really think it’s safe to start showing them? are unemployed people finally running out of buffer cash and are trust funds finally running dry? are people finally ditching NY now that unemployment is stubbornly over 10.3%? are women “playing the pregnant card” and convincing their hubbies to move to bigger places in the burbs? do sellers feel that there is a window to sell now?
it’s kind of a moving target for sellers I think — if they all list once it looks “safe to list”, they’ll crush the market.
statement’s not ridiculous…people who own rather than rent have more vested in neighborhood…..building’s that r owner occupied are better maintained than those that r subsidized….concept really isn’t that hard to get a hold of….Larrry Summers himself once said that no one washes a rented car…
quote:
ownership, over the long term, is better than renting from both a quality of life and economic perspective.
um, not for everyone. how can you make such a ridiculous blanket statement?
*rob*
With asking prices down more than 22% from the peak, the next quesiton is: where is the bid-ask spread? I would think that has to be at least the same or greater. Leads me to believe prices are 25-30% down in the broader market (probably less for Brownstone Brooklyn).
Will reiterate my unscientific SWAG’s on the Brooklyn market:
Brownstones: quality homes only off 10-15%, mainly due to low inventory
Co-ops: down 20%, less for the most sought after places (like the frequently referenced Paul Giamatti building)
New Condos: down 35-40% off peak. Probably sitting at 2006 prices (one hell of a run-up from 2006-2008)
inventory figures are not reliable. full disclosure, I didn’t read the article, but no one knows how many apartments are really for sale in the city, and you certainly won’t find that number by adding up broker listings. Is this another times article where they put up a picture of a sweet looking couple getting ready to buy their dream pad, and then quote 5 brokers on the state of the market?
“It will be more affordable to more people, which is more sustainable… I don’t know if it’s such a great world when people with good jobs and a good income can’t buy a home.â€
I don’t think I like it when a Realtor agrees with me. I’m a little scared. Hold me.
Too early to say market is in normal fall mode. Fall off to a slow start, market is not woken up from August yet, wait til after holidays, check back in mid-October. Too early to tell….