AY Financial Projections: We Got 'Em
Well, it looks like the ESDC has in fact coughed up the financial projections for the Atlantic Yards project. We haven’t had time to go through them too closely, but at first glance they do not paint as profitable a picture as many opponents suspect, generating a mediocre IRR of 9.6 percent. The biggest thing…
Well, it looks like the ESDC has in fact coughed up the financial projections for the Atlantic Yards project. We haven’t had time to go through them too closely, but at first glance they do not paint as profitable a picture as many opponents suspect, generating a mediocre IRR of 9.6 percent. The biggest thing that jumps out at us is that they show that FRC is planning to sell off most of the pieces of the project in 2015. Either that, or they just needed to estimate a terminal value and that seemed as good a year as any. We’re sure others far more qualified to analyze this stuff will be able to offer more insightful analysis. We’ve provided links to the three documents below. Have fun.
1) AY Cash Flows Returns
2) Combined IRR
3) Nets Arena Cash Flows
Earlier coverage and discussion:
ESDC Forced to Cough Up Financial Docs on AY [Brownstoner]
And Norman Oder’s response…
ESDC-released Documents Lack Vital Information [AY Report]
Photo by threecee
“”The govt. stepped in” smacks of the conspiracy theories beloved in the anti-development camp.”
Ratner claimed metrotech would bring new jobs and attract companies when none came – except ones given huge tax breaks thus taxing infrastructure and not brining in new revenue, the government stepped in to fill the empty office space
same at ratner’s failed atlantic mall – the retailers moved out and he was left with empty space so he called in some favors and had government offices move to….a shopping mall.
Ratner is a horrible, incompetent developer – he’s got friends in high places that’s his only ‘asset’
Why are government offices cited as “proof” that a development is flagging. The govt. needs office space just as much as private enterprises, so why should it be viewed as inferior or a last resort? “The govt. stepped in” smacks of the conspiracy theories beloved in the anti-development camp.
Anon at 4:56:
“However, the MAJORITY doesn’t have problem with the sacrifices that must be made (albiet with just compensation) for the benefit of the public good. Same thing happened when ED was employed to get the Empire State Building, the World Trade Center, Rockefeller Center and Lincoln Center built. People lost their homes and local NIMBY activist protested and eventually lost because the “big picture” dictated that these projects get built despite the seizing of personal property.”
You’ve made this claim before, I think, that the Empire State Building was built using eminent domain. This is absolutely untrue. I’m pretty sure Lincoln Center used eminent domain, but are you sure about the World Trade Center? And in any case, I don’t think the WTC is a particularly good example for your cause, since that complex was reviled for many years and failed to achieve full occupancy without the government stepping in and renting offices. And now that it’s gone, the street grid is being restored, whereas AY is going backward in this respect by demapping streets. Street demapping was also done for Metrotech, with predictably terrible results — ie the complete absence of vibrant streetlife around that complex.
As for the “MAJORITY” being in favor of AY, there’s simply no way to know that. Given that all of the locally elected officials representing the vicinity have asked for major changes in the project, I’d say that it appears that those who represent the MAJORITY are not in favor of AY as currently designed.
The part where wrong = right Anon 8:17.
“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” (Edmund Burke)
Has anyone seen DDDB’s press release? Using posts from an anonymous message board seems pretty desperate to me.
Why not use all of that money yielded from DDDB fundraisers to hire a genuine analyst?
I’d be more for the project if the Dallas Mavericks were moving in
To the people who say the government, representing the people, have the power to allow the project, then how about follow the city’s law with regard to land use and go through the ULURP and zoning processes. If this were the case I would feel much more comfortable with the government representing my interests and spending my money. That is what is so horrific about this process, is the total failure of government to impose any standards on the developer.
Totally agree with “aesthetics and scale” above. How much more does it cost to build something that is in keeping with the rest of the neighborhood’s aesthetic. Lately I’ve spent some time in D.C. , which is going through a condo boom and new construction in and around their historic districts look great and add tremendous visual appeal. Why add insult to injury?
BTW, the book club at Brownstone Books is discussing The Power Broker on March 21st. Anyone who hasn’t read the book should go to the store (in Bed-Stuy) and pick it up. Can anyone say “urban removal?”
David, of the 400m+ in equity that FCR is required to put into the AY project, at least 300m is being contributed by the City, State and MTA. It could also end up being more than that, since Bloomberg has admitted to giving FCR the equivalent of a blank check for the project.
The Broken Angel was formerly a nine unit multi-family building, which means that rather than using the 421a program, we will be applying for a J51 tax abatement. 4/6 and 8 Downing Street currently pay under $3,000 a year in taxes. Even with a J51 tax abatement in place, the completed property will generate more than ten times that in property taxes for the city.
Guess what the kicker is David? I won’t have to displace any residents from property that they own, and I won’t have to circumvent established public process to create a PUBLIC BENEFIT by increasing the tax rolls of the propery significantly while also making a profit.