By Robert Pozarycki

It’s been nearly two years since New York City had any measurable snow. That all could change this weekend.

Forecasters say an approaching storm expected to arrive in the Big Apple late Saturday night and into Sunday has the potential to deliver quite a bit of snow to the city. Exactly how much of the white stuff is expected, however, remained quite uncertain Wednesday; the National Weather Service indicated the type and amount of precipitation won’t be known for at least 36 to 48 hours.

As with any winter storm, it all depends on the track. In this instance, according to forecasters, if the center of the low remains further south, New York will get more snow because of the cooler air drawn in from the north. However, if the low’s center moves further north, chances are the city will experience a mix of snow, sleet, and rain due to warmer air — thereby reducing the amount of snow expected.

The National Weather Service, in a 4 a.m. advisory on January 3, indicated that there is “increasing confidence on low pressure tracking toward the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday, and then southeast of the region Saturday evening into Sunday.” If the storm stays on that track, it means coastal areas of New York City will see more rain than snow, while interior sections north and west will get more snow.

clearing the sidewalks of snow
Fort Greene in 2022. Photo by Craig Hubert

Whatever precipitation falls, the National Weather Service reported, will be “moderate to heavy” at times, and accompanied by strong winds. If the event turns out more snowy than rainy, that could severely impact visibility on the streets, complicating travel.

While there are still many “ifs” about the impending storm as of Wednesday, the one certainty is that it has been a very, very long time since New York City has seen any significant snowfall.

The last time Central Park reported a snowfall of at least 1 inch was back on February 13, 2022, when 1.6 inches of the white stuff was reported. The ongoing snow drought is the longest since Central Park began keeping weather records in 1868.

With intermittent storms that left trace amounts of snow, the National Weather Service recorded just 2.3 inches of snowfall in the winter of 2022/23 — the lowest on record. It was also one of the warmest winters on record; January 2023 saw above-average temperatures every day of the month, another first for the city.

Nevertheless, AccuWeather believes New York is in for a far snowier winter this year, thanks to changing weather patterns from the re-emergence of El Niño in the Pacific, where waters are warmer than average.

As for this weekend’s potential snow/rain event in New York, no official weather advisories had been issued as of Wednesday morning.

Editor’s note: A version of this story originally ran in amNY. Click here to see the original story.

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