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*rob*
I believe that the reason astrology seems to be a good fit with individual circumstances is that it understands the principles exhibited in the birthday paradox we’ve been going on about.
Given a certain number of persons and a certain number of predictive outcomes, the chances that an individual will identify with at least one is quite likely.
If you get into deeper theories of probability theory, there is something to be said about a connection between a micro-determination (such as tarrot cards) and the macro-dynamic (the universe). The so called butterfly effect.
lech
**IMPORTANT**
sometimes it helps to understand why something is wrong to see why something else is right.
In my hasty calculations in which I determined the probability at 1 in 12, I neglected to factor in the variable change.
In this case the basic assumption in the question:
What are the chances that two persons out of a group of 30 will share the same birthday?
I now realize that I was solving the problem :
What are the chances that someone will share the same birthday as the first individual in a series of 30.
Much different.
oh, and tonight i splurged on myself, and bought me 2 bars of man soap at the supermarket. for the last few months ive been using free samples of lady and gay soap from Sabon, and while i did enjoy my bubbles baths with those, i dont think they were getting me as clean as they should! anyway, it was worth the money to purchase soap for men, as i smell nice right now and don’t geel grimey, nor do i smell like a vegan french whore.
*rob*
um, legion, you give props to everyone else, but please give them to me for stating the importance of astrology! the planets and the stars and the sun! i havent even read my susan miller 2011 prediction yet, it’s SOOOOOOO long, maybe ill do it tonight. if anyone wants to read a good year long overview of their life (she’s been correct for the last 11 years ive been reading hers) google susan miller 2011 astrology. she’s the woman!!
*rob*
*rob*
I bought tomatos today and they were 2.99 a pound.
That has exponentially increased the probability that I will be planting some tomato plants this spring!
lech and arkady,
the essence of this math problem seems to be this,
as you determine the probability of a postitive outcome
(in this case, that two individuals share the same birthday)
you must also take into account the accumulating probabilities of the opposite outcome (that two individuals won’t share the same birthday)
and factor that into the equation.
In this case, it seems several posters had the right idea,
arkady in pointing out the importance of the negative result,
cmu in the statistical threshold of 57 achieving 99% probability
and etson on noting the importance of “variable condition” or “variable chance” in calculating the outcome.
what is the “event” tho. im truly confused. if it’s people who are in a group who have the same birthday and it’s more than normal, is that out of the norm? there are two people out of about 30 who also share the same birthday (fyi, also aquarians but they have a diff birthday, but the same day). maybe it’s just the nature of the job industry tho, so there are other outside factors? there are other aquarians too, but not sharing the same exact birthday. there are no leos btw. say what you want about astrology, but it’s just as legit as pure math i guess.
*rob*
also every math class i had in grammer and high school always overlooked, or just never got around to any of the stuff on probability (i guess it was such a small part of state tests it didnt seem all that important). so i think when i trying to learn the more advanced concepts about it, it was a bit stumpy since i never learned the basics (other than the OBVIOUS basics). i wonder if this has any correlation with my discartographia? doubtful, but who knows.
*rob*
So basically it’s the probability of the event having not occurred that matters.
Arkady was right.
i have the utmost respect for people who can talk math like it’s second nature. obviously i cannot do it. i capped out right before calculus. anything higher would have been impossible.
*rob*
i was great at math in school, but probability always gave me the biggest headaches for some reason… even basic probability. i stupidly took this class freshman year of college called math for the liberal arts to get rid of the one math requirement, not realizing the quant stats in psychology would have eventually counting, and the whole glass was weird problems/games based on probability. it hurt my brain. luckily it hurt everyone elses brain more than mine, but still..
*rob*