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Money moves first into places where it’s easy to move. It moves more slowly where it is harder to transact. It’s like friction. Or liquid finding the same level in two vessels, one of which has a large opening for water to pour into and the other a small one.
If it’s something that’s on the tip of a trader’s tongue when you say “commodity” and it’s something that is traded in an easily accessible liquid market, I’m guessing it’s too late.
Just think of stuff that will cost more when inflation takes off. Then ask yourself if the cost has already gone up. Ask yourself if it’s easy to buy, and therefore an easy play for your average dumb trader.
Money moves first into places where it’s easy to move. It moves more slowly where it is harder to transact. It’s like friction. Or liquid finding the same level in two vessels, one of which has a large opening for water to pour into and the other a small one.
I’m looking at mostly cash prices.
Although lumber (2 x 4s STD & BRT Hemlock Fir Pac NW) are well off their 2004 highs, they bottomed (nh) in March, 2009 at $191 and are now $301.
Stop looking at futures markets DIBS. If you are doing this on a Bloomberg screen you’re doing it wrong.
If it’s something that’s on the tip of a trader’s tongue when you say “commodity” and it’s something that is traded in an easily accessible liquid market, I’m guessing it’s too late.
Just think of stuff that will cost more when inflation takes off. Then ask yourself if the cost has already gone up. Ask yourself if it’s easy to buy, and therefore an easy play for your average dumb trader.
Pepper Ready at Mumbai have sored from 10,600 Rupees in November to 12,100 currently.
“Which commodities remain less “discovered?”
I have thought of timber. I’m sure there are others. If it’s something you read about a lot in the press it’s too late.
Tamarind futures at Jaipur are now at 5,400 Rupees, up from 2,500 a year ago.
Which commodities remain less “discovered?” Copra futures???? Even they have soared.