Open Thread

Can’t argue with any of that dona, except to say that if you’re going to make a bet like this, just make the bet. This is pure price speculation, not asset allocation. Limiting your potential losses also usually means limiting your potential gains.

Anyways I have stuff to do and can’t make an informed choice about how to do this today…. to be followed up with better information later.

Donatella, we should sock away $15 to buy Lech some cheap beer as we give him the “told ya so” under the guise of consoling him.

meant to say simpler (instead of similar)

Lech, I am looking at surrounding markets and I am looking at technical variables such as volumes and open interest, I am looking at momentum. I don’t think you are wrong to THINK about selling gold, you are looking for a top, which is perfectly reasonable given the rise we have seen. HOWEVER, you are selling into a market which has moved up, inched up in a solid, steady way with an increase of players. What you need to see is some shift in the bigger picture — maybe as Dibs points out a shift in the dollar (although the gold rally has been pretty currency impervious) or more importantly a shift in the larger macroeconomic picture — Perhaps you will see a pre-election extension of the rally in the S&P and that could be a catalyst for a sell off. You will not be helped by viewing the market in a “fundamental” sense, ala other commodities, i.e. mine production, demand for jewelry, etc. In the late ’90s we saw massive Central Bank selling of gold bullion. And in the past year and a half, aggressive buying by Central banks on dips. Central Banks are trying to diversify portfolios as are large institutional portfolios. You should let the market give you SOME clue first.

But if you want to sell, go ahead. Just think through how you want to do it to limit getting hurt until the tide shifts. I would recommend buying put spreads.

It’s not a matter of reliance on spellcheck when it’s a non-existent word! It’s just ignorance. Even the Times has a lot of them now & a reader on NewsRadio 88 the other day said eck-cetera – just as bad as “aks” for ask.