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  1. “BHO…you’re right, nobody is bullish. In fact, most retail investors are VERY bearish and therein lies the opportunity.” – DIBS

    Opportunity if you have access to a supercomputer. Until the next “flash crash” that is.

    “BHO: Although I too am a bear on NYC housing prices, we are definitely at an inflection point right now. By the end of this year, if it is not obvious that prices are heading lower it will be time to admit that NYC has somehow avoided the worst of the downturn.
    I can tell you that there is the lowest inventory of houses for sale that I have ever seen. The only things on the market are for one reason or another, unbuyable.”

    Can’t double dip without an inflection point, DCB. We had a rally from the March lows (only fractional for housing) not because of fundamentals but because of Wash/Fed blowing their loads to no avail for the real economy. Now they’re going to crash the bond market. Not good for Brooklyn housing to say the least. Listed inventory might be low for now but how come prices haven’t spiked? And why do so many properties still have lis pendens filed after so many months and years (unlisted but inevitable inventory)? Why are properties unbuyable? I thought this was a renovation blog! Yeah, some not delivered vacant but not all. You gotta focus on the fundamentals. NYC property prices are historically stable at 10x annual rent (falling target) and 3x median income (falling target) but they’re still trading at 16x and 5x, respectively. And, you stated yourself that you’re still a bear. You KNOW this thing is about to unravel. It might even survive through New Year to my shock but it HAS to and WILL come down. All Ponzi schemes collapse by mathemtical necessity. That’s all this is!

    “houses reguarlary go for at or above ask”

    Falling ask, ishtar.

    “Housing prices remaining flat for a long period of time is essentially the same as a decline”

    Not during deflation, ishtar! That would be a winner for housing like cash under a mattress, a store of value. But it aint gonna happen. Deflation crashes durable asset prices. Nominally and really.

    ***Bid half off peak comps***

  2. Yes, Seward’s folly was Alaska. And not so sure anymore it wasn’t folly. Seems like Alaska keeps producing politicians who rail against fed govt while Alaska takes more per capita from feds than any other state. There’s gratitude for ya. They should think about whether they want US coming to Alaska’s defense next time Putin rears his head. 😉

    Now, back to those parrots.

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