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“There’s been a Chinese RE bubble since 1993. Betting it’ll get pricked soon is not a bet that I will take.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 24, 2009 12:33 PM”
The point of bubbles is that, once they go beyond a reasonable/rational valuation, they continue growing unabated. If something was fairly/under-valued and then becomes 100% over-valued then it must have gone through the point where it was 50% over-valued (otherwise we would never have bubbles).
My point is that something needs to happen to pop those bubbles and bring things down – either a proactive event (eg Lehmans going under) or lack of momentum (eg no more qualified buyers).
My bet is that the chinese RE bubble bursts in the next 12 months. I don’t know what factor is going to cause it but I think there are enough potential things that could happen that one, or a combination of them, will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
bxgrl,
the argument is that with rising sea levels, equatorial water would increase away from the solid ice caps. The water would slow the earth’s rotation as analagous to an ice skater stretching out their arms while doing a spin. Your argument that the earth’s spin is slowing may be true but this is already factored in, the Earth’s slowing rotation as a function of time is understood. What we are talking about is a detectable and quite prominent slowing that would be expected on the graphs if water levels were indeed rising throughout the planet. That spike in the graph has not been detected.
as far as the coastal areas of flooding, one place in particular which is pointed to by global warming proponents is the areas surrounding Hong Kong, the climatologists who were making the study understood this to be an area of subsidence but still included the data to support their claim to rising sea levels.
do a google search and check this out for yourself. there is a great deal of politics behind this global warming, too much for comfort.
I recently saw one respected meterologist on television speaking to the issue of global warming and I have to say he is quite convincing, against the idea. The guy’s name is Bastardi and he’s always on the weather channel about hurricanes. He was showing a graph on how one would expect the strength of hurricanes to increase with global warming. In fact, over the past 10 years, he argues, the sum of global hurricane strength has decreased.
I’m not saying I am the expert in this, but there is enough expert testimony out there by well regarded scientists to punch large holes in the global warming theory, at least with respect to it being a man-made phenomenon.
bxgrl,
the argument is that with rising sea levels, equatorial water would increase away from the solid ice caps. The water would slow the earth’s rotation as analagous to an ice skater stretching out their arms while doing a spin. Your argument that the earth’s spin is slowing may be true but this is already factored in, the Earth’s slowing rotation as a function of time is understood. What we are talking about is a detectable and quite prominent slowing that would be expected on the graphs if water levels were indeed rising throughout the planet. That spike in the graph has not been detected.
as far as the coastal areas of flooding, one place in particular which is pointed to by global warming proponents is the areas surrounding Hong Kong, the climatologists who were making the study understood this to be an area of subsidence but still included the data to support their claim to rising sea levels.
do a google search and check this out for yourself. there is a great deal of politics behind this global warming, too much for comfort.
I recently saw one respected meterologist on television speaking to the issue of global warming and I have to say he is quite convincing, against the idea. The guy’s name is Bastardi and he’s always on the weather channel about hurricanes. He was showing a graph on how one would expect the strength of hurricanes to increase with global warming. In fact, over the past 10 years, he argues, the sum of global hurricane strength has decreased.
I’m not saying I am the expert in this, but there is enough expert testimony out there by well regarded scientists to punch large holes in the global warming theory, at least with respect to it being a man-made phenomenon.
“There’s been a Chinese RE bubble since 1993. Betting it’ll get pricked soon is not a bet that I will take.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 24, 2009 12:33 PM”
The point of bubbles is that, once they go beyond a reasonable/rational valuation, they continue growing unabated. If something was fairly/under-valued and then becomes 100% over-valued then it must have gone through the point where it was 50% over-valued (otherwise we would never have bubbles).
My point is that something needs to happen to pop those bubbles and bring things down – either a proactive event (eg Lehmans going under) or lack of momentum (eg no more qualified buyers).
My bet is that the chinese RE bubble bursts in the next 12 months. I don’t know what factor is going to cause it but I think there are enough potential things that could happen that one, or a combination of them, will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
“about to be pricked”
Who’s about to be pricked?
bxgrl,
the argument is that with rising sea levels, equatorial water would increase away from the solid ice caps. The water would slow the earth’s rotation as analagous to an ice skater stretching out their arms while doing a spin. Your argument that the earth’s spin is slowing may be true but this is already factored in, the Earth’s slowing rotation as a function of time is understood. What we are talking about is a detectable and quite prominent slowing that would be expected on the graphs if water levels were indeed rising throughout the planet. That spike in the graph has not been detected.
as far as the coastal areas of flooding, one place in particular which is pointed to by global warming proponents is the areas surrounding Hong Kong, the climatologists who were making the study understood this to be an area of subsidence but still included the data to support their claim to rising sea levels.
do a google search and check this out for yourself. there is a great deal of politics behind this global warming, too much for comfort.
I recently saw one respected meterologist on television speaking to the issue of global warming and I have to say he is quite convincing, against the idea. The guy’s name is Bastardi and he’s always on the weather channel about hurricanes. He was showing a graph on how one would expect the strength of hurricanes to increase with global warming. In fact, over the past 10 years, he argues, the sum of global hurricane strength has decreased.
I’m not saying I am the expert in this, but there is enough expert testimony out there by well regarded scientists to punch large holes in the global warming theory, at least with respect to it being a man-made phenomenon.
There’s been a Chinese RE bubble since 1993. Betting it’ll get pricked soon is not a bet that I will take.
I like the Hong Kong office market a lot more…Hongkong Land is the best play and it has a 3.2% yield. HKHGF
Denton, there IS a chinese RE bubble – about to be pricked
Google email service disrupted. Check your email.
“You can steam your sheets.”
Um, my sex life isn’t that active.
Is there a machine I can use that will do the trick.
HR, you shorting? I keep hearing about a Chinese RE bubble.
bxgrl,
the argument is that with rising sea levels, equatorial water would increase away from the solid ice caps. The water would slow the earth’s rotation as analagous to an ice skater stretching out their arms while doing a spin. Your argument that the earth’s spin is slowing may be true but this is already factored in, the Earth’s slowing rotation as a function of time is understood. What we are talking about is a detectable and quite prominent slowing that would be expected on the graphs if water levels were indeed rising throughout the planet. That spike in the graph has not been detected.
as far as the coastal areas of flooding, one place in particular which is pointed to by global warming proponents is the areas surrounding Hong Kong, the climatologists who were making the study understood this to be an area of subsidence but still included the data to support their claim to rising sea levels.
do a google search and check this out for yourself. there is a great deal of politics behind this global warming, too much for comfort.
I recently saw one respected meterologist on television speaking to the issue of global warming and I have to say he is quite convincing, against the idea. The guy’s name is Bastardi and he’s always on the weather channel about hurricanes. He was showing a graph on how one would expect the strength of hurricanes to increase with global warming. In fact, over the past 10 years, he argues, the sum of global hurricane strength has decreased.
I’m not saying I am the expert in this, but there is enough expert testimony out there by well regarded scientists to punch large holes in the global warming theory, at least with respect to it being a man-made phenomenon.