Brownstoner Anniversary: Handicapping the 'Hoods

Before taking off for Christmas in 2004, we asked readers which neighborhoods they thought would appreciate the most and the least in 2005. To our surprise and delight, there were more than 100 comments waiting for us when we returned (some of them appear to have been lost).

A few choice reader comments:

there are some who still have not caught on to brooklyn yet- either they don’t have the mindset of the early adopters, but are mere followers, etc. (one good friend said to me once: i can’t live in brooklyn– what would the partners think? that’s where the secretaries live!!)

And:

I would short Bed-Stuy and go long Park Slope. I think the spectacular run-up in Bed-Stuy prices is at risk of retreating. I say that because speculative frenzies are often accompanied by pauses or retreats. From everything I am reading and hearing, things have gone insane in that nabe.

We did another post counting up the results.

The clear winners, with several long votes and no short votes, were Fort Greene, Clinton Hill, and Crown Heights. Nearby Bed Stuy had its share of supporters but it also had a number of readers who thought it had gotten ahead of itself and was due for a correction. Not surprisingly, the blue chip nabes–likened by one reader to U.S. Treasury bonds–were Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope. The general consensus was that these were safe longterm bets, but unlikely to be the biggest movers in either direction. Williamsburg and Red Hook were the only two hoods to receive multiple shorts and no longs. Ouch.

And earlier that month, we answered a reader’s question about whether or not to buy at the Lorimer stop in Williamsburg. We think the advice still holds.

As we’ve said before, we think Brooklyn is still at the beginning of a long-term upswing—maybe 5 years into a 50 year cycle—though that certainly doesn’t mean we couldn’t see short term corrections of 15% or 20% as that long-term trend plays out. Given how hot Williamsburg has been, we think you need to feel comfortable that you can stay put at least 5 to 7 years. If you’re thinking about living there for a couple of years and flipping for a neat profit, we’d advise against it.

We also noted that the Bedford stop was likely to become overcrowded and you’d have a better chance of finding a seat on the train at Lorimer.

Question: To Lorimer or Not to Lorimer [Brownstoner]
Hibernation Time at Brownstoner HQ [Brownstoner]
2005 Long/Short Neighborhood Bets Tallied [Brownstoner]