Open House Picks: Six Months Later

“Hmm, I’m not sure I would characterize a widely published and respected economist as making predictions “out of his ass”. And you still haven’t answered my question about commercial RE and your 2010 predictions.”

Will all due respect – being widely published does not make a prognosticator’s predictions good. Widely respected economists have created models that were the basis of winning a nobel prize and who’s same models caused the fall of long term capital management. Very few economists predicted anything like the turn in the markets last year, yet people are still reading what they have to say without asking how they did in the past. It is handy and reassuring to have expert opinion to rely on, the problem is that coming up with a measurement of its accuracy.

On the subject of experts I recommend “Fooled By Randomness” by Nassim Taleb. The chapter where he looks at probability as it’s used in the medical world is worth the book.

Also, the idea that the future will resemble the recent past is questionable, even though the past is used as the framework for such predictions. Personally, I try not to predict the future. It is much safer to try to predict the past.

you’re missing the joke bho. you see the trees but not the forest. per your 318p, you’re purposefully misreading my comment to fit your hobgoblin mind. same ole strategy, chef. [yawn.]

I agree with you ‘dope about extensions. I think they will try and contrarian traders will score. But ultimately, since in the last thirty years we’ve had little ammo for real GDP other than credit, debt issuance will collapse and we revisit the 30’s. Renewed strength didn’t come then until a war was started. In fact, I think war is the only way we escape a repeat of the Great Depression. But damn, everybody’s got a nuke or two.

***Bid half off peak comps***

BHO, mkt bottoming out is something I’m waiting to see before I buy anything but the other more important item is I aint going to buy something if I feel it’s too pricy vs my savings and income. In the past, I might’ve been tempted to buy something beyond my financial comfort cause the “real estate is can’t miss juicy investmt” propaganda was prevalent & strong. Today, I value financial comfort over the urge to have to buy a place – ie there’s no such thing as “HAVE to buy” and nothing wrong with renting.

so regardless of prices has, has not, etc bottomed out, I still find prices today way too high for my financial comfort – maybe I need to come to terms I’m really not making enough to live in a house in NYC