Co-op of the Day: 101 Lafayette Avenue, #17C

> “I and others are very interested in what buildings you’re following.”

Sorry, but you are going to have to do your own research.

Snark, from your handle I gather that you like to argue. But I’m not trying to argue with you. I only suggested from my own experience/observation and from listening to many other people who are better-informed than me, that studios and 1BRs will do better in this downturn *relative to larger apartments* – not that either type of apartment will do *well.* Everything’s getting hammered, there’s no doubt about that.

On the other hand, how much things get hammered is the question of the day. You’re basically suggesting 40% declines, which is pretty bearish. A 30% decline prices this apartment at about $250k. A 20% decline prices it at about $285k. It depends on just how bad you think things will get. Fact is, in 2010 rents will still be higher than they were in 1995. Fulton St will still have more restaurants and fewer prostitutes than it did in 1995. The Griffin’s board will still be a lot better than it was in 1995. Etc. It means this apartment won’t be seeing 1995 prices. Real estate trends are what they are, but the particular building and the particular neighborhood matter, a lot.

Anyway, even if we see 40% declines in this recession – certainly a possibility, I’m pretty bearish myself, I predicted all this back in 2004 – it’s a slow slide to that point, and we’re not at the bottom yet. So even if the price of this apartment goes to $220k, I bet the seller could unload it right now for more than that.

Finally: I and others are very interested in what buildings you’re following. I’d love to find one of these desirable $220k studios…

> “but you can’t downgrade below studios”

True. But more importantly – and more frequently – they are outgrown. People get married, have children, and suddenly that studio is untenable.

> the glut of larger apartments will cause prices of large condos
> to suffer more than prices of small co-ops.

I would agree with you if a large portion of those new condos weren’t in fact studios and one bedrooms. Take a look at the offerings of most of these buildings. Most of the apartments are small.

> Also note that mortgages are a nice hedge against inflation

True. But inflation will result in higher maintenance fees, so I would call that a wash.

I own a brownstone studio a block away from the Griffin. I have a fireplace, 13-foot ceilings, and a view of a beautiful garden, and I’m 50 feet from the park. I would rather leave NYC than live in Midtown, especially that depressing post-war solitary confinement box on 57th Street. With an ARM, I pay $1460 a month (and am thinking of refinancing now to lower it). Of course, my maintenance is much lower than this one’s.

This one may be on the higher end, especially with the maintenance, but there are no studios with beauty and character, anywhere in desirable NYC, for the prices some of you seem to want. $220? It doesn’t exist. We are still in NYC. The sales market will reflect the rental market, and the cost of renting your own place hasn’t dropped that much in prime ‘hoods (or has it?)

SnarkSlope, or anyone else, can you find some other pre-war studios in brownstone Brooklyn to compare this to? Because I never considered anything or anywhere else for my first place.