Quote of the Day
Asking prices are currently irrelevant. As I have pointed out many times, the top of any asset bubble is typically characterized by decreasing supply and barely increasing prices. Prices start to decline, and some sellers hold out thinking things will get better. They don’t. Prices decrease some more, and the weakest sellers give in. Inventory…
Asking prices are currently irrelevant. As I have pointed out many times, the top of any asset bubble is typically characterized by decreasing supply and barely increasing prices. Prices start to decline, and some sellers hold out thinking things will get better. They don’t. Prices decrease some more, and the weakest sellers give in. Inventory increases, sales volume increases and prices decrease. The cycle continues until everyone who thought that holding out was a good idea kicks themselves for not selling at a mere 15% discount when they had the chance. Sellers capitulate. The market bottoms.
— by lechacal in Average Prices Up in BK, Inventory Down
A la Russia and Iceland, pierre. By mid-day?
What a colossal pile of horse s**t. (Any post that starts out,”As I have pointed out many times” usually is.
If you were one-millionth as smart as you claim you are, you would be drinking Critstal right now instead of pathetically posting incomprehensible economic theories (mostly cut-and-pasted from other internet blogs) here.
Hey DOW what do you mean “I think the NYSE will be padlocked tomorrow”? Do you mean they will stop trading a la Russian Stock exchange from several days ago? Or do you mean this in terms of increased physical security?
I like this analysis
http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53115#post53115
I think the NYSE will be padlocked tomorrow.
“The question is: as a prospective buyer, how do you know when the market’s bottomed?”
The answer is: When the year over year change of the New York S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index http://tinyurl.com/3x5p34 approaches zero. That is, when it permanently goes from “the red” (negative) to “the green” (positive). The converse is true for the top.
I tested this theory for the last top (9/88) and last bottom (4/91). The YOY through zero lagged by only 5 months in the former case and by only 9 months in the latter case. Not bad for the very slow speed of real estate price changes.
And for those of you who think this index is irrelevant to Brownstone Brooklyn TM, it was 72.29 (Trough) on 4/91 and 215.83 (Peak) on 6/06. That’s a 200% increase. A tripling if you will. Sound familiar?
I think the American economy just drove off a cliff. I never thought I would see the Dow at 8600 again.
I think it is meaningless to talk about real estate prices. There is no market right now and there will not be again until things shake out.
How the hell much farther do we have to go before the market has priced in all of the negative outlooks and expectations? I don’t pretend to be any expert on the equity market but to see these devaluations across the board regardless of industry, balance sheet, p/e ratios, etc. is unbelievable.
DOW8000 is going to be changing his name to DOW7500 or DOW5600 in the next month, I betcha.