Register to leave a comment, or log in if you already have an account
Legion;
I just got around to reading your experiment above.
Poor example.
As you said, the multiple lines on the screen are due to a diffraction pattern. Diffraction is the bending of the light waves around the opening, and the resulting interference pattern that is set up. This pattern can be well-predicted by treating this issue with wave theory. It is not in the realm of probability.
Also, since this is a wave issue, one doesn’t speak of “photons”. Photons relates to the realm where light can be modelled as discrete packet of energy – almost mass-like. Not the situation here, we are talking above waves.
Discuss tomorrow, even though I won’t be around.
Finally, my first assignment with my present company was to sell a device that is called an “arayed waveguide grating” which works on exactly the phenomenon that you described above. It was used as a multiplexer to send multiple streams of light, at different wavelenths, down a single strand of optical fiber. This device was pivotal in meeting the internet bandwidth explosion of the dot-com era. If you google that phrase you will see a further explanation of how it works.
my baked ziti came out PERECT! it’s deheating right now, just took it out. no clue if it will taste good but it’s burnt PERFECTLT and i didnt have to worry about broiling. thanks Gem, i followed your advice!
hey benson, yeah, very fun discussion. It’s good to have someone who knows his stuff out there and does more than come in at the end and say it’s elementary (fuckin’ dibs, yeah I’m talkin’ about you).
And anything that entitles me to jameson shots is well worth the time!
no, cobble, im going to definitely make the dinner i planned. i just get frustrated, EASILY, because the simplest of life’s tasks turn (i.e. making dinner) into HUGE ordeals for me with ridiculous setbacks that seem to pop up like mushrooms on cowshit. and people wonder why the concept of the vinegar sandwich is my current day mantra?! somewhere along the way i never learned the easy tasks in life. anyway, im gonna take an adult show now with some real soap. watch me slip and fall and forget the number to 911 :-/
I also realized that your formulation was correct on my drive home. However, my 10.18 stands, in this way: we were talking about apples and oranges. I missed the point that you were calculating the probability of AT LEAST 2 people having the same birthday in a party of 20 (or whatever the number is). As you said, this is a cumulative probability (that could include 3 people having the same birthday, four etc.)
I was focusing on a different issue: in a random group of 20 people, what is the distribution of probabilities that ONLY two people have the same birthday. For this problem, my formulation above is correct. It is basically, the Poisson formulation, and the geiger counter example above holds. As I explained above, since the problem becomes deterministic once the number of party-goers goes over 366, one must use a form of the Poisson called “Student’s T” in which the measurement is truncated at a specified time, and considered to have happened then. This is the type of experiment we do in our labs when we can do a limited-time test, but have to predict the number of failures in a product’s lifetime.
Great discussion, Lech. The lawyer beats out the engineer who spent a good part of his career doing statistical modelling!!! You get two Jamesons when I see you.
BTW, to anyone who doubts the correctness of my previous statistical modelling: you would not be able to access web-sites in Europe if I was wrong then 🙂
Legion;
I just got around to reading your experiment above.
Poor example.
As you said, the multiple lines on the screen are due to a diffraction pattern. Diffraction is the bending of the light waves around the opening, and the resulting interference pattern that is set up. This pattern can be well-predicted by treating this issue with wave theory. It is not in the realm of probability.
Also, since this is a wave issue, one doesn’t speak of “photons”. Photons relates to the realm where light can be modelled as discrete packet of energy – almost mass-like. Not the situation here, we are talking above waves.
Discuss tomorrow, even though I won’t be around.
Finally, my first assignment with my present company was to sell a device that is called an “arayed waveguide grating” which works on exactly the phenomenon that you described above. It was used as a multiplexer to send multiple streams of light, at different wavelenths, down a single strand of optical fiber. This device was pivotal in meeting the internet bandwidth explosion of the dot-com era. If you google that phrase you will see a further explanation of how it works.
my baked ziti came out PERECT! it’s deheating right now, just took it out. no clue if it will taste good but it’s burnt PERFECTLT and i didnt have to worry about broiling. thanks Gem, i followed your advice!
*robv*
And of course legion, a shout out to you for having fun with us on this one.
was it real cheese or some imitation cheese food product?
I almost got fooled last time grocery shopping.
hey benson, yeah, very fun discussion. It’s good to have someone who knows his stuff out there and does more than come in at the end and say it’s elementary (fuckin’ dibs, yeah I’m talkin’ about you).
And anything that entitles me to jameson shots is well worth the time!
Have a great night.
and adult SHOWER now… just finished with the adult show..
*rob*
no, cobble, im going to definitely make the dinner i planned. i just get frustrated, EASILY, because the simplest of life’s tasks turn (i.e. making dinner) into HUGE ordeals for me with ridiculous setbacks that seem to pop up like mushrooms on cowshit. and people wonder why the concept of the vinegar sandwich is my current day mantra?! somewhere along the way i never learned the easy tasks in life. anyway, im gonna take an adult show now with some real soap. watch me slip and fall and forget the number to 911 :-/
*rob*
Lech;
You still out there?
I also realized that your formulation was correct on my drive home. However, my 10.18 stands, in this way: we were talking about apples and oranges. I missed the point that you were calculating the probability of AT LEAST 2 people having the same birthday in a party of 20 (or whatever the number is). As you said, this is a cumulative probability (that could include 3 people having the same birthday, four etc.)
I was focusing on a different issue: in a random group of 20 people, what is the distribution of probabilities that ONLY two people have the same birthday. For this problem, my formulation above is correct. It is basically, the Poisson formulation, and the geiger counter example above holds. As I explained above, since the problem becomes deterministic once the number of party-goers goes over 366, one must use a form of the Poisson called “Student’s T” in which the measurement is truncated at a specified time, and considered to have happened then. This is the type of experiment we do in our labs when we can do a limited-time test, but have to predict the number of failures in a product’s lifetime.
Great discussion, Lech. The lawyer beats out the engineer who spent a good part of his career doing statistical modelling!!! You get two Jamesons when I see you.
BTW, to anyone who doubts the correctness of my previous statistical modelling: you would not be able to access web-sites in Europe if I was wrong then 🙂
“just gulp down a 40 a call it a meal type nights.”
Great idea, Rob. NOT!