Whither The Market in 2011?
The Times tried its best this weekend to look into the housing crystal ball, talking to a handful of real estate world bold-face names. Corcoran chief Pam Liebman thinks the forecast hinges on payouts at the banks. If the bonuses are big as we go into 2011, we’ll have the wind behind us. If the…
The Times tried its best this weekend to look into the housing crystal ball, talking to a handful of real estate world bold-face names. Corcoran chief Pam Liebman thinks the forecast hinges on payouts at the banks. If the bonuses are big as we go into 2011, we’ll have the wind behind us. If the bonuses are down, the wind is at our face and it’s a tougher climb. Elliman’s Dottie Herman sees the market moving sideways. Brown Harris Stevens’ Hal Wilkie is seeing some encouraging signs of life at the high end of the market. Jonathan Miller, though, isn’t as bullish: the federal tax credit’s expired, mortgage rates are creeping up slightly and unemployment is still high. What do you think?
A Mixed Forecast for the Housing Market [NY Times]
The big real estate price correction is only 50% complete. We are currently experiencing a short pause — similar to a belch between swigs of beer.
Prices are still laughably high considering average mortgage payments are so much higher than market rents on similar properties.
Some semblance of rent to mortgage payment parity (aka sanity) must return for true market stabilization to take hold.
Otherwise, why the hell buy? It’s much cheaper to rent, and there’s no risk of losing your life savings as the housing market Titanic keeps sinking.
“But the commute would be more convenient that trying to post on this goddam site.” – LOL -good one.
“moving sideways”? sorry but that seems like nonsense-speak to me. I assume this means either “stabilize” or “stagnate” depending on your half-empty/half-full point of view.
it’s true that (lack of) inventory has an impact here, but it’s also true that the readily available inventory of alternatives to buying is also much higher here, much more attractive and much more patronized than around the country. what seems very out of whack to me here is affordability. are there really enough Wall Streeters around to sustain housing prices that do not seem to relate to real incomes?
I think bronxville is outta my price range. But the commute would be more convenient that trying to post on this goddam site.
Ditto, you sound like a dude who should live in Bronxville
You mean I won’t have to move to Pelham?
I think the general sideways movement of prices is probably the most likely turn of events, which as many people have pointed out, is a downturn in essence if inflation kicks in and the sideways period lasts long enough. Like we have seen, there are very localized variations to the overall market. Certain neighborhoods will buck the trend and certain neighborhoods will do worse.
to me, this is good news.
I think that nobody really knows.