Mixed 2Q Results for Brooklyn Market
Douglas Elliman released its 2nd Quarter market report for Brooklyn this morning and the results are, well, mixed. (The Wall Street Journal’s take on them is quite rosy though.) All the big numbers—like average and median sales prices and number of transactions—were up compared to a year earlier but did not compare so favorably against…
Douglas Elliman released its 2nd Quarter market report for Brooklyn this morning and the results are, well, mixed. (The Wall Street Journal’s take on them is quite rosy though.) All the big numbers—like average and median sales prices and number of transactions—were up compared to a year earlier but did not compare so favorably against the first quarter of this year. From the summary sent out via email:
-Median sales price increased 5% to $463,000 from $441,090 in the prior year quarter but slipped 0.6% from $466,000 in the prior quarter.
-Average sales price increased 10.1% to $545,110 from $495,120 in the prior year quarter and increased 2.5% from $532,061 in the prior quarter.
-Number of sales increased 16.2% to 1,660 from 1,428 sales in the prior year quarter but fell 10.8% from 1,861 units in prior quarter.
About what you would have expected?
chrishavens,
Exerpts of ‘Warburg Realty Mid Year 2010 Market Review’ by Frederick Peters, President, and my commentary…
http://www.warburgrealty.com/blog/
“The early months of 2010 were replete with cognitive dissonance: buyers simply could not believe that they had missed ‘the bottom’ and that failure to act decisively once again left them empty handed just as it had three years earlier!”
We’ve hit bottom? Does it even matter? Is there ever a bad time to buy? Does Fred put his commissions in a fund to offset possible (inevitable IMO) buyer losses?
“The smaller apartment market, which had suffered less during the recession, rebounded less dramatically.”
DURING the recession? You mean it’s over? With a structural government deficit of 11% of GDP! Oh yeah, it is over! We’re in a depression now. But that’s not quite what he was implying, was it?
“The jobless nature of our recovery…”
So he endorses the jobless reGOVery garbage. At least to the buyer community, the one that keeps those commissions flowing.
“…with the market a little slower, real opportunities exist for buyers.”
Opportunity for what? To lose your shirt while the real economy collapses around you. Yeah, that’s a real opportunity!
“We don’t see an upcoming loss in value, but the froth will be gone. Buyers, if you think this is a moment to flee to the sidelines, reconsider! This is 2010’s moment of opportunity.”
When will this guy EVER tell the buying community about an upcoming loss in value or when to flee to the sidelines?
Look, I’m sure he’s a fine fella and I respect his gangster when it comes to herding and slaughtering the sheep to keep those commissions flowing. But his advise to buyers is fundamentally conflicted by definition. Like a used car salesman. Would you feel better if I called him a new car salesman? I’m blowing real talk, not smoke.
DIBS – I’ve got two more years! Mrs. BHO is very happy these days. We’re sprawled out in a very spacious apartment, paying more than before but still half the cost to own one (not that we want an apartment), saving hundreds of thousands of dollars! Prenup not necessary for now, God willing.
That was awesome, bryanx @ 2:38!
***Bid half off peak comps***
1. temporarily re-inflate bubble.
2. insert needle.
3. back to 1.
“Wait’ll the shadow gets unleashed! ”
Been waiting for this for over 2 years now!!!
Mrs. BHO must be getting pretty ticked by now, all couped up in an aprtment. I hope she got a prenup.
Fred Peters is not used car salesmen, Bid. One of the finest folks around. Tells the truth. You just blowing smoke. Do you talk to tenants, buyer and brokers every day? do you show space? do you sell or buy? what do you do
I found it interesting that “Brownstone market share was 4.4% of Brooklyn sales”
And that the median price of Brownstones rose 12.2% over prior year.
So they dropped in price about 25% immediately following Lehman collapse and have since come back 12%.
Exactly what I’m seeing in Park Slope…prices are basically down about 15% from the peak.
“About what you would have expected?”
Exactly what happened, brownstoner. Temporary relief with stimulus “shot in arm” followed by impending doom. Rate of sales and prices down. But sales have to peak before we hit bottom. When the mood shifts after reGOVery TM gets publicly and officially recognized as a failure, look out below!
“Some interesting data when you delve into the numbers”
Yeah, DIBS, a clue by four that Brooklyn is collapsing would be interesting to a permabull like you. YOY follows QOQ which follows MOM. f” < zero. Fewer days on market because asking prices (thus comps) are FALLING again, “double dipping” if you will. Rate of change in 1-3 fam sales rising but rate of change in prices falling because sellers are taking their lumps. All this with tight listed inventory. Wait’ll the shadow gets unleashed! S&P showed that NY Metro shadow inventory skyrocketed +200% from ’07 to ’08. We have the highest level of said inventory than any other metro area, 5 years worth. And that does not count the distressed properties that haven’t yet been sent default judgements.
“stats are too easy to interpret for any position you want to take.”
Then show us your bullish position, Pete. Rate of change is down accross the categories. Not getting worse? You’ve lost me.
“The numbers in the WSJ article don’t seem to support its thesis.”
Very good, mopar. That’s why brownstoner called them “rosy”.
“see Fred Peters Warburg Realty blog”
Right, chrishavens. Give your faith to the used car salesman.
“However, as always we will follow manhattan.”
Yup. Right into the abyss.
***Bid half off peak comps***
The brownstone brooklyn data is seriously lumpy. Unless you can drill down and start excluding outliers, or specific events, its not even worth analyzing. Problematic is comping to some of the thinnest quarters.
“We’re at a point now where, for the most part, things are not getting worse,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., co-producer of the Elliman report.
When you step back, look at Manhattan, look at the volume, look at the prices there, look at the volume in Brooklyn, clearly things were positive. If you were in the market you saw that start really humming in 4Q2009.
I don’t however think that that huge pent-up bull rush isn’t something that is going to be sustained, but should flatten out. Nothing that should prevent anyone from pulling the trigger though.
However, as always we will follow manhattan.
see Fred Peters Warburg Realty blog, he has same take on the market’s ‘arc’ strong first, weaker 2nd quarter the obvious things is space being slowly absorbed
condo shortage in BK in 30-40 months, emmis
The numbers in the WSJ article don’t seem to support its thesis.