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While prices were only flat to down across various categories in Manhattan in the fourth quarter of 2008, the graffiti was on the wall in the form of declining volume and much longer times on market. The worst is yet to come; there is a blood bath coming, said Matthew Haines, a founder of the real estate site Propertyshark.com who prepared the Corcoran report. Corcoran reported a 30 percent decline in the number of sales from the fourth quarter a year ago, while Prudential Douglas Elliman came up with an estimate of 25 percent. Price data was not as gloomy: The average co-op price was $1.1 million, 8 percent lower than the third quarter but 3 percent higher than a year ago. Looking at prices of properties currently in contract, however, paints a different picture: Jonathan Miller said that these numbers fell a whopping 20 percent between August and December of last year. While real estate pros have a hard time agreeing on what the future holds for sales, they probably all concur with one comment made by Corcoran honcho Pam Liebman: A lot of brokers are making friends with lawyers and doctors and all those people who were left behind in the heyday of Wall Street, three months ago.
Striking Declines Seen in Manhattan Real Estate Market [NY Times]
Reality Hits Home in Manhattan [NY Post]
City’s Housing Market Hammered [NY Daily News}


What's Your Take? Leave a Comment

  1. Line that struck me: “The worst is yet to come: there is a blood bath coming” said Matthew Haines, a founder of the real estate site Propertyshark.com who prepared the Corcoran report.

    Given the credit/mortgage problems, I imagine brokers will also get very chummy with the few cash buyers left out there.

  2. “Price data was not as gloomy”

    Not supposed to be. Price drops lag behind drops in number of sales. It’s a classic pattern in RE. I don’t know how many doom/gloom articles it’s gonna take for buyers/sellers/brokers to realize that prices are very likely to drop in the range of -25 to -50 percent from the peak.

    ***Bid half off peak comps***