Corcoran's 4Q Data Sending Mixed Messages
Corcoran has released its 4th quarter market report for Brooklyn and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. There’s lots to comb through, but here’s how Corcoran’s head honcho in Brooklyn distilled the data: The residential real estate market in Brooklyn proved to have a very strong quarter. The typical seasonal dip in sales at…
Corcoran has released its 4th quarter market report for Brooklyn and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. There’s lots to comb through, but here’s how Corcoran’s head honcho in Brooklyn distilled the data:
The residential real estate market in Brooklyn proved to have a very strong quarter. The typical seasonal dip in sales at the end of the year did not occur. Not only were sales even with Third Quarter 2010, sales were much stronger compared to a year ago. Pricing was lower than both last year and last quarter, but this was due to a surge of sales in the one-bedroom market particularly in new development properties. The median price of a Brooklyn apartment that closed during Fourth Quarter 2010 was $410,670, a 3% decrease from a year ago and an 11% decrease from Third Quarter 2010. Average price per square foot, at $549, was down 6% from a year ago but held even with last quarter. New development sales accounted for roughly 41% of all apartment transactions, up significantly from both last year and last quarter when they made up 33% of the market. While single-family townhouse median price increased 3% from last quarter, it was down 35% from a year ago. In contrast, multi-family townhouses increased 10% in median price from last quarter and were up 37% from a year ago.
The most interesting numbers to us? The increases in townhouse prices in Brooklyn Heights and BoCoCa. Check them out on the jump. (You can click on either of the images to enlarge.)
“Invisible” – sorry you don’t find our Brooklyn reports useful and went so far as describe them as schlocky (my spell checker approves of the spelling amazingly enough). While some of the market areas see overlap of properties because they can fall into different categories it is not meant to offend your sensibilities or appreciation of nuance. However in our report series we try to provide a view by property type and by location. ie 1-3 Family vs. Northwest Brooklyn, slicing the market into different groups. For example your criticism of the luxury or top 10% of the market in all due respect misses the point of a market report. Of course it doesn’t present the nuance of Gowanus vs Cobble Hill within the luxury segment. It’s not supposed to. The upper end of the market often behaves differently than the remainder of the market usually because of the conforming vs jumbo mortgage differences so we parse it out. However I hear you and will try to improve, but from your detailed comments, you seem to be expecting an appraisal or a feasibility study.
Maly this is not only corcoran sales data. Don’t know where you are getting this.
Donald I have been hashing out Miller Samuel reports since they first came out. Maybe schlocky was harsh, but generally there reports are fairly useless. I understand their data constraints. Their inventory commentary is appreciated as well as weeding out data that appears to be non arms-length transactions. The analysis usually worthless. Good elevator memos though.
If you can read this report and confidently tell me they have explained the relationship of data movements between “Luxury”, “Northwest”, “Brownstone” which presumably share some of the same comps, then let me know. If you look at the brownstone category explanation: volatile, median price down, average price up, price per square foot down, but up versus last year, volume up, square footage same. seriously that’s what you get.
Now – we all know that a $700k “browntone” in gowanus across form the train tracks has a different demand than a $4 million Cobble Hill or North Slope one. But then there’s the Luxury Breakout. Any differences similarities, differences, how many were brownstones? Its just poor analysis which is too bad because they probably have the best data.
I would not agree that Miller Samuel analysis is “schlocky.”
They are an independent appraisal firm that helps Elliman produce their reports. Their interpretation of the data (which is their own) should be without bias.
Jonathan Miller is one of the most respected analysts in the industry.
Corcoran’s format is clearer, but it’s only based on its own data, so the outlook is narrower.
this report seems halfway intelligent compared to the Miller Samuel schlock.
i can look at a map and see where and what on a square foot basis no less.
yes, tell me that “townhouse performance varied widely depending on Zone” and change was due to mix shift with less zone 2 and 4.
yes, tell me the new development numbers are skewed by 1brs at be@schemmerhorn
finally, someone speaks intelligence. someone actually tries to make sense of this odd borough.
now, is the data correct – can’t be certain – but advantage corcoran.
“The residential real estate market in Brooklyn proved to have a very strong quarter.”
Every data leads me to believe that the market is going down the hill. I don’t understand what Corcoran is talking about.
“The most interesting numbers to us? The increases in townhouse prices in Brooklyn Heights and BoCoCa. Check them out on the jump.”
Unlike Prudential data, Corcoran data is extremely volatile because it is based on fewer number of transactions. Not very reliable.