YIMBY Predictions: Flatbush Will Gentrify, No Bust Until "End of Decade"
No real estate bust will occur until “the end of the decade,” according to YIMBY. “We don’t expect to see a slowdown in gentrification…For better or for worse, we see 2015 shaping up a lot like 2014 but on steroids, with the current cycle having a few more years to run before petering out and turning…
No real estate bust will occur until “the end of the decade,” according to YIMBY. “We don’t expect to see a slowdown in gentrification…For better or for worse, we see 2015 shaping up a lot like 2014 but on steroids, with the current cycle having a few more years to run before petering out and turning to bust towards the end of the decade.”
We disagree; if there is a national real estate crash — perhaps brought on by the flameout of a large REIT — Brooklyn will crash too; if interest rates rise significantly, prices will decline. Those somewhat unpredictable events will be counterbalanced by demand in Brooklyn, which will continue. So absent a real-estate market implosion or rising interest rates, we believe, Brooklyn prices will keep on climbing, just like they have in Manhattan. Eventually, though, growth may slow.
Overall, YIMBY predicted recent trends will continue:
But we do expect to see trends that started over the past few years continue, as the city’s prime core, gentrifying fringe, and outer ring of immigrant growth and white flight all press forward in the face of minimal new supply.
In specific neighborhoods, YIMBY said:
To the south, we expect to see Flatbush, Sunset Park, and Kensington emerge as fast-gentrifying neighborhoods — Flatbush as the new Prospect Lefferts Gardens, Sunset Park as the new South Slope and Greenwood Heights, and Kensington as the new Windsor Terrace. Tension over growth should be most pronounced in Flatbush, where zoning is loosest — while we expect Hello Living’s 23-story tower at 1580 Nostrand, practically in East Flatbush, to have the same stellar design and affordable prices as Eli Karp’s other projects, we also see it riling up the left-leaning elements of Flatbush proper, much as 626 Flatbush Avenue did in Prospect Lefferts Gardens.
What do you think?
YIMBY’s Predictions for 2015 in New York City Real Estate [NYY]
Boost predicted? Gimme a break.
Boldly** predicted?
Even if there is a nationwide crash, with a huge shortage in NYC things will still be strong. It seems like the city is a beneficiary of a larger movement of middle class, upper middle class, and upper class, away from suburban life and back to urban neighborhoods. The reversal of white flight. This is a movement that evolves over decades, rather than the year to year fluctuations of the market.
1580 Nostrand is only 30 minutes from Wall Street. I read some speculation that Financial district commuters were driving up interest in the 2/3/4/5 neighborhoods.
I predict the McDonalds on Parkside and Ocean is not long for this world.
Also you will see a restaurant row gradually develop along Nostrand Ave from Eastern Parkway all the way down to Church.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see development along Coney Island ave from the park down to Newkirk. Seems like a natural place for condos a la 4th ave.
I also think the Sunset Park rail yards along Greenwood cemetery could be built over and developed, although that might be more like a decade away.
If things get really tight you could see development over all the big freeways carved out by Robert Moses. Bloomberg wanted to build over Cobble Hill. One could do the same thing over the prospect expressway in Windsor Terrace.
Definitely w/Flatbush, but I’m not sure how far out we can expect large rental/condo construction to continue. If the target market is young professional Manhattan commuters, 1580 Nostrand is 45 minutes from Times Square. If you were getting a deal buying a house, you could rationalize that, but for a condo? People will do it of course, but it’ll be tough to continue the leapfrogging gentrification of prices much farther.
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Sure, there’s lots of longtime apartment buildings farther out, but many of their residents aren’t “yuppies” searching for a deal that allows commuting to Midtown.
I bought out in Flatbush, the premise was simple: I can take the 2/5 (west and east sides of manhattan) and get to midtown just as fast as I could if I lived in the middle of Crown heights. My wife and I spent an entire day going back and forth timing trains to make sure the travel time was similar. One goes east at Franklin the other goes south. We got a much nicer house than anything we saw in Crown heights or Bedstuy, yard, and 2 car garage for about 100k less than I could in Crown Heights and about 200k less than Bedstuy.
Fwiw, there are two areas I found this weekend that are being developed for condos, and the homes near my own continue to get sold at a higher prices. When we bought getting 500k was a lot for a sfh, today similar sfh’s are closing at +650k. All of that drives condo prices up. One aspect of gentrification that is commonly overlooked is the increased amount of square feet the buyers seek out. Where a family of 5 used to live – two people move in, or where there was a 3 family house it gets converted into a sfh. That drives up the ppsf in all types of real estate condos included.