Jonathan Miller: No Market Bottom Yet
The housing market follows unemployment trends (unemployment and layoffs continue to trend higher), mortgage rates are likely to rise in the mid to long term (the Fed is facing challenges in keeping rates in check as US pumps out bonds to cover the debt), consumer confidence (remains low) and access to credit (banks are not…
B’klyn Jobless Rate: Highest Since 1992
-According to the statistics for June 2009, which just came out, the unemployment rate for Kings County is now 9.9 percent, while the jobless rate for New York City is 9.3 percent. The year-ago rate were 5.5 percent and 5.1 percent, by comparison.
Brooklyn Eagle, July 21, 2009.
‘Grrrr’ says the Bear…
JAE, what’s a bubble? There is a clear relationship between house prices and unemployment. Housing prices collapsed, the financial system collapsed, this in turn caused layoffs. They are related.
How can someone conjecture on the relationship between housing prices and unemployment? It’s a bubble. That’s like forecasting internet stock prices in 2000 by looking at gas prices.
We need this clown to tell us when the bottom is in?
“While we can all probably agree that the worst in housing market’s decline is behind us…”
We? YOU don’t even agree. Reread what you just wrote.
“…lets also agree to follow the economy more closely and be patient.”
Oxymoron.
“Housing will stabilize at some point in the future, just not right now.”
Pulitzer prize.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Or it could be the last to fall and the first to recover.
Seems to me that New York is reaching some kind of bottom now. But obviously higher interest rates will push prices lower. And if unemployment continues to increase, that’s not going to help sell houses.
I expect prices to continue falling for a year, then to stay flat for years.
If something happens where the US can’t borrow money anymore (maybe because it’s borrowing too much now), I would expect another financial world freeze up and prices to plummet more. That’s the “W-shaped recovery” you hear so much about. (No relation to George W.)
So: Slight recovery around 2010, plunge again, another uptick around 2015.
Alternatively, slight recovery around 2010, flat for years, uptick around 2014.
We’re already three years into this mess.
Yawn. This is about the national market. Unless someone has something to say about what is moving the New York market I’m not really interested. New York was last to fall and I expect will be last to recover.