ACE Supermarket.... my lifeline for tonic water and limes.

Posted by: lechacal at November 21, 2008 12:26 PM in response to Looking to Buy a Parking Spot

I am currently parked on Berkeley between 6th and 7th, I think in a Tuesday spot. I'll sell you my spot for ten bucks.

Posted by: lechacal at November 21, 2008 12:25 PM in response to Looking to Buy a Parking Spot

They are too busy collecting $405 a week and calling their realtor to talk to you.

Posted by: lechacal at November 18, 2008 11:37 AM in response to making friends with people in luxury condos

Where on Earth is Marine Park?

Posted by: lechacal at November 17, 2008 9:39 AM in response to Park Slope Can't Measure Up to Marine Park

The air is going to get sucked out of the entire NY market in the next 12 months. Prices have just started falling and are not even close to bottoming. Even properties with a compelling long-term story (such as Toren) are a major risk in the next couple of years. If you are really doing this for investment, then wait. If you just want a place to live, then decide where you want to live and buy there, and accept that you are probably making a terrible "investment."

This will be a long slide to the bottom. There will be a lot of people like yourself who think that a few percentage point drop means it's time to buy. In a few years almost all of these people will be wishing they had more patience.

Posted by: lechacal at November 16, 2008 11:50 AM in response to Williamsburg Edge v. Toren (Downtown brooklyn)

The air is going to get sucked out of the entire NY market in the next 12 months. Prices have just started falling and are not even close to bottoming. Even properties with a compelling long-term story (such as Toren) are a major risk in the next couple of years. If you are really doing this for investment, then wait. If you just want a place to live, then decide where you want to live and buy there, and accept that you are probably making a terrible "investment."

This will be a long slide to the bottom. There will be a lot of people like yourself who think that a few percentage point drop means it's time to buy. In a few years almost all of these people will be wishing they had more patience.

Posted by: lechacal at November 16, 2008 11:50 AM in response to Williamsburg Edge v. Toren (Downtown brooklyn)

Sebb?

Posted by: lechacal at November 16, 2008 9:34 AM in response to Williamsburg Edge v. Toren (Downtown brooklyn)

That's for damn sure Biff. The comment about Rockefellers etc. made my head hurt a little bit (like when you realize you have to explain something terribly basic to a child).

Posted by: lechacal at November 14, 2008 10:33 AM in response to Is anyone following the biggest robbery of the American public??

Pitbull, a lot of the names on that list are from emerging markets and won't be on the list next year. Next year's list will include more U.S. and European names and fewer Indians and Russians. Two in particular were nowhere near this list until a huge spike in the share price of their Indian company. I can't remember exactly how much they have lost, but they are just nowhere near this list any more.

Posted by: lechacal at November 14, 2008 9:43 AM in response to Is anyone following the biggest robbery of the American public??

derwood, please go back to worrying about Area 51 or the CIA or whatever it is you people usually do. Leave crisis management to the grownups.

Posted by: lechacal at November 14, 2008 8:49 AM in response to Is anyone following the biggest robbery of the American public??

Just brainstorming here:

-- Try some electric fence. The little hard-to-see strands.

-- Strew some tacks all over the stoop. Again, the harder to see the better.

-- Play Alvin and the Chipmunks really loud.

-- A little ultraviolence can go a long way.

-- Do the thing they did in E.T. with Reeses Pieces, but with little crack rocks heading to the East River.

-- Paint your stoop hot pink.

-- Sell your place to them (hook them up with a no-doc pay option ARM) and move to the Slope.

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 4:11 PM in response to How do I get rid of Crachheads in front of my apartment

Bright lights. Problem solved the day you put them up. Unless of course they are daytime crackheads, in which case start washing your stoop frequently so it's always wet.

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 1:27 PM in response to How do I get rid of Crachheads in front of my apartment

derwood, TARP is evolving. At one stage outright purchases of troubled assets were perceived as the best solution. I think the best way to articulate yesterday's change (focus on purchases of bank capital rather than purchases of troubled assets) is that capital purchases leave much less opportunity for mischief by non-governmental market participants. A lot of people have been trying to figure out how to get rich on direct asset purchases since TARP was announced. People in DIBS' industry in particular. In my humble opinion Paulson did the right thing by shifting focus.

Second guessing these decisions with hindsight is astonishingly presumptuous. Consider what the world would be like if Paulson had done nothing at all.

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 12:23 PM in response to what the....

One of the burdens of accepting Paulson's job (in addition to the massive pay cut he took) is that he has to be the public face of the crisis, and he will inevitably be blamed by poorly informed members of a frightened public (like cobblehiller). Paulson didn't create this crisis. He is doing an incredible job at keeping the ship from sinking. And yet he has to accept uninformed sniping from mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging members of the voting public.

You should be thankful that a man of his caliber was willing to take the job. God forbid we end up in a crisis someday when people of this caliber have stopped accepting cabinet-level appointments. Don't forget how horribly wrong the FEMA hurricaine response was when "brownie" was in charge. If a leader like Hank were in that position things would have ended very differently.

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 11:12 AM in response to what the....

Standing ovation for slopefarm.

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 10:47 AM in response to what the....

derwood, you are not giving the impression that you understand how decisions of this magnitude are made. Hank Paulson's job is not, for the most part, to decide what he thinks is best and tell people to act accordingly. That kind of job exists only at relatively low levels. Hank's job is to be a focal point for a number of powerful and competing interests in the middle of a massive crisis and somehow manage to keep the ship together enough so it doesn't sink. He is astonishingly good at this job.

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 10:46 AM in response to what the....

I have worked with him (although to be frank that just means I have been in conference rooms with groups that included him and maybe shook his hand a couple of times - I very much doubt he remembers me). He is incredibly cool under pressure. I can't think of a single human being who could keep his shit together while trying to do his job right now. Do you have any concept of the pressures that are being applied to him behind the scenes? This man is one very cool cat. Without Hank Paulson and Tim Geitner in their current positions things would be much worse than they currently are.

Perhaps What is angry that Hank is keeping his treasured armageddon at bay?

Posted by: lechacal at November 13, 2008 10:09 AM in response to what the....

"A real buyers market comes when sellers shift from resisting selling at a declined market price - because they believe a higher price will come sooner rather then latter to a situation where sellers are willing to take ANY market price because they believe that the future market price will likely be even lower."

QOTD from fsrq. Very astute. I agree that we are not in a buyer's market yet.

In the next six to twelve months, inventory is going to slowly increase in prime Brooklyn until there is a glut of unsold inventory, including some real high-end stuff. Then we will be in a buyer's market. Until then I hold on to my cash and wait.

Posted by: lechacal at November 12, 2008 2:42 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Is this a real question? The obvious answer has already been given. Ask for a reduction, and if your landlord says no, move out.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 9:57 PM in response to Asking for rent reduction?

One of my many personality flaws is that I treat everyone who isn't as smart as I am like an idiot. And I'm exceptionally smart.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 2:49 PM in response to Citigroup Puts the Kibosh on Foreclosures

pmmtenement, I accept that disclosure on these products has been inadequate. But I have little sympathy for those who didn't suspect that the too-good-to-be-true rate was in fact too good to be true. There was a lot of press during the boom about these toxic products and how much payments were going to jump for people signing on to them. It would have taken about two minutes on Google for any of these people to get a basic sense of the trouble they were getting themselves into.

FatLenny, I didn't say that mortgage restructuring constitutes socialism. I merely pointed out that, like socialism, it starts with a good idea that ends up hurting everyone.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 2:20 PM in response to Citigroup Puts the Kibosh on Foreclosures

Also, haz, bear in mind that these days a mortgage "workout" usually doesn't mean loan foregiveness in the traditional sense. It means some idiot who can't do math or understand basic financial instruments (probably like Mopar's friend in California) has their option ARM loan turned into a more traditional product that they are more likely to be able to actually afford.

You did the right thing. Trust me, you are much better off than almost all of these people who are getting workouts.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 12:03 PM in response to Citigroup Puts the Kibosh on Foreclosures

haz, don't you worry, prices are going to keep coming down and you will be able to buy. Congratulations on your fiscal health. Prices are not going to be back to peak levels for many, many years.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 11:54 AM in response to Citigroup Puts the Kibosh on Foreclosures

Mortgage rates are low because banks have collateral. If you don't pay, they can take away your house. The rates for unsecured lending, where the bank has no collateral, are much higher. Credit cards are a good example. So you can either accept the lower rate and accept that the bank gets to foreclose if you don't pay, or you can borrow at a much higher rate (in which case the bank still might be able to take your house, it's just a lot harder for them to do so).

Banks are facing a conundrum. They are all better off at the moment doing workouts en masse rather than flooding the market with foreclosures (which would just depress the value of their collateral). That's good business. But the problem is that the borrowing public and their less-than-sharp elected representatives will view this as precedent and expect banks to give everyone with a sob story a break. This could slowly turn secured mortgage lending turning into unsecured lending as a practical matter, which means bank will no longer lend at rates that have a built-in assumption that they can foreclose when someone doesn't pay. They will lend at higher rates that assume either that it is much more difficult or impossible to foreclose.

Step one sounds like compassionate and well meaning social policy, but the law of unintended consequences takes over and everyone gets screwed. Kind of like socialism.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 10:40 AM in response to Citigroup Puts the Kibosh on Foreclosures

This will make mortgages more expensive in the long run.

Posted by: lechacal at November 11, 2008 9:54 AM in response to Citigroup Puts the Kibosh on Foreclosures

Start inviting all of your friends with kids over at 5:30 am every weekend. Let the kids run around and scream and bang on his walls. Do this on a Saturday morning and a Sunday morning. After the kids leave on Sunday, knock on his door and ask him if he is ready to negotiate.

Posted by: lechacal at November 10, 2008 12:13 PM in response to Noise Issues

Hey now, lawyers are middle class in this city.

Posted by: lechacal at November 6, 2008 5:49 PM in response to studio apartment for rent

I'm sure there are a bunch of hipsters on Craigslist who need a roommate. Otherwise you are pretty much S.O.L.

I always get a little nostalgic when I see the new arrivals talking about how little they are planning to spend on an apartment. No one ever shoots too high when they move to New York. It's always some naively low figure based on however much grad students pay in podunk college town with some padding that the new arrival thinks will do the trick in the big city. And how wrong they always are.

I remember arriving in Fort Greene in 2001, fresh out of law school, throwing around some figure that sounded high to me at the time but in hindsight probably just sounded comical to the locals. I ended up rented my first place for $1530 a month on Carlton Ave. It felt like a lot of money at the time.

Posted by: lechacal at November 6, 2008 4:47 PM in response to studio apartment for rent

And of course the place on Berkeley between 5th and 6th (across the street from the playground), and the place on the corner of 7th Ave and either 2nd or 3rd (the one owned by the crazy old lady).

Posted by: lechacal at November 6, 2008 11:38 AM in response to Prime Park Slope Real Estate Still Vacant

Cynthia McKinney is a paranoid fruitcake. I have said much stronger things about her that I won't repeat here out of respect for the general sense of decorum on this site. My views are shared by many others who were in the financial district on September 11, 2001.

Posted by: lechacal at November 5, 2008 8:37 PM in response to Paint The White House Black!

Well said, Montrose, or to put it another way, someone who looks black to the average midwesterner is black for purposes of most debates on racial identity. I have a couple of friends who I recently learned are "black" (I have known them for years and had no idea). They have been treated as white for all purposes except their successful applications to Harvard and Yale, respectively. Lots of ink has been spilled about the fact that a little bit of black usually makes someone black, but it takes an awful lot of white to make someone white.

In any event, if I saw Obama walking down the street in the Slope I guess I would probably think "black yuppie." Knowing that his mother is white I honestly don't think of him as black. It's too bad we don't have a good word for mixed race. I'm sure one will be invented soon enough, given that its relevance will only increase over time.

Posted by: lechacal at November 5, 2008 1:36 PM in response to If There Is Anyone Out There...

I should follow up my post by recognizing that there are various good arguments for referring to Barack Obama as black rather than coming up with a more complicated term for his mixed ethnicity. My post was meant to be a legitimate question (and one that I recognize has some perfectly good answers) rather than an indictment of anyone who refers to Barack Obama as black.

..and I really don't mean to suck the oxygen out of the room with this. Carry on with the enthusiasm.

Posted by: lechacal at November 5, 2008 12:16 PM in response to If There Is Anyone Out There...

Congratulations to Senator Obama. The enthusiasm and optimism I see today have been missing from the world for many years. There have been many touching posts on this site in the past two days (particularly Montrose Morris's post yesterday).

Now to complain about something that has been bothering me for months. Obama is just as white as he is black (or "African American", a presumptuous and often inaccurate bunch of doublespeak). If he were just elected president of Kenya, would he be referred to as their newly elected white president? Some members of my own extended family are 50/50, and I would never refer to them as black (their own parents prefer "Vermont maple syrup", but that's just an inside family joke).

Posted by: lechacal at November 5, 2008 11:57 AM in response to If There Is Anyone Out There...

That's my polling place. Just walked by half an hour ago, and the line went all the way down Berkeley (long block), across 5th Ave (short block) and back up Lincoln out of view. I had given myself 45 minutes to vote, but no way it was going to happen. I guess I'll leave work this afternoon and give it another shot. Pretty hard to do your civic

Posted by: lechacal at November 4, 2008 9:21 AM in response to Long Lines, Everywhere

...and of course there is a FSBO on Park Place near 7th Ave...

I agree with Wasder. Brownstones make terrible conversions unless there are at least 2 floors per unit.

Posted by: lechacal at November 3, 2008 9:03 PM in response to Brownstone Apt Layouts - Park Slope

The New York market is not the national market. The national market has undergone a very healthy purge. The purge in New York is just beginning. New York will continue to decline while the national market is on its way back up.

Posted by: lechacal at October 29, 2008 9:41 AM in response to Housing Slump Almost Over

Me too. Very annoying!

Posted by: lechacal at October 29, 2008 1:00 AM in response to Adobe Flash Popup

Let me be the first to offer my heartfelt congratulations.

Posted by: lechacal at October 29, 2008 12:58 AM in response to Where is Wasder?

billyboomer, I found your post interesting because I am in active search mode and go to open houses pretty regularly. I have been to enough to see some pretty consistent and annoying behavior by the lookers. Particularly common are the people who make sneering comments about a property that are clearly meant to be heard by the realtor, as if that is going to make the price drop or convince someone to accept a lowball offer. I actually have sort of a "looker code" for myself. I am always very respectful and never make sneering comments. I recognize that realtors wants frank and open feedback from the lookers, and I always offer that when I have the chance. If I think the price is higher than market (regardless of my view of the direction of the market), I say so. If there is something in particular that takes a property out of consideration for me, I will tell the realtor very frankly what it is (and not in a haggling kind of way).

At the end of the day, my decision is binary. I either bid or I don't. And after looking quite a lot of properties in the past 6 months or so I have bid on exactly zero (though I have come close a couple of times). There is simply no point in walking around open houses and trying to make realtors and/or owners feel bad. Market prices will come down, and then I'll buy. In the meantime I have nothing but time and patience.

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 11:29 PM in response to Condo of the Day: 145 Park Place, #2B

ParkPlaceOwner, good for you for coming on to this site and offering your rebuttal. Bravo.

As I mentioned earlier, I happen to have a very personal dislike for this building, but obviously others have different views. For what it's worth, you do not live on a "quiet tree lined street." You live between Flatbush Avenue and a stretch of Park Place that hardly qualifies as a quiet tree lines street by virtue of its proximity to the 7th Ave/Park Place/Flatbush cluster.

I have absolutely no personal stake in your success or failure here. So good for you if you get your asking price. But my frank opinion -- as someone who is very familiar with a lot of current listings in the Slope -- is that you reached much too high with your asking price.

Most owners think their property is worth more than it is. It is the nature of ownership. A good realtor will temper those expectations with sober advice about what the market will actually bear. My humble view is that you never got that sober advice.

To be very clear, 2007 and the first half of 2008 were the top of the market. We have hit the top and are falling, and in my view will be falling for some time to come (I sold last year and started renting, so my money is right where my mouth is on this). You took the tippity-top of the market price for your apartment and then added some. When all is said and done, I think you will find yourself accepting a price at a discount to the top of the market (i.e., something in the neighborhood of what you initially paid for the apartment).

Again, I don't know you at all and have no personal stake in your success or failure, so if you can do better than I predict than good for you. But you might want to be prepared for an adjustment to your expectations.

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 8:32 PM in response to Condo of the Day: 145 Park Place, #2B

I personally dislike this building enormously. I know others feel differently. The entrance on Park Place feels cold and isolated, and I really don't like being that close to (on top of) Flatbush. The apartments feel too angular and steel. It has all of the negatives I associate with modernism without any of the openness and flow that sometimes comes with buildings of that ilk.

That being said, I know some people like the building just fine. And it does have great subway access. But regardless of your feelings on the building, this place is simply not worth a single red cent more than these people paid in 2007. Top price for this place? $695,960. Full stop. Maybe some idiot will pay more, who knows. But I would be surprised.

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 2:35 PM in response to Condo of the Day: 145 Park Place, #2B

For his benefit you might want to delete the rest of the comments on the same subject.

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 11:49 AM in response to The Obama Escape Clause

Up to you Prodigal Son. You just issued a direct threat against the life of a presidential candidate. At best you are just being painfully stupid. Those sorts of things are taken extremely seriously, and rightfully so. The last four words of your post are about the dumbest thing I have seen someone post in a long time. You are now officially below sebb and the What on the intellectual totem pole.

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 11:27 AM in response to The Obama Escape Clause

Brownstoner, you need to delete Prodigal Son's post immediately. If you don't the secret service will ask you to do so.

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 10:50 AM in response to The Obama Escape Clause

I am surprised at the staying power of irresponsible mortgage products during the crisis. A couple of observations, and Adam Dahill and Sunny Hong are of course welcome to offer a rebuttal on behalf of the mortgage brokers and mortgage bankers, respectively:

1. Any payment option product should be taken out to the back alley and shot. They are toxic waste the moment they are written.

2. If you can't afford a 20% down payment, don't buy. Don't try to think of some creative way to borrow even more money so you can absolutely leverage yourself to the maximum to buy the property. It means you can't afford it, and you shouldn't buy it. Keep renting and save. If you don't have the earning power and fiscal discipline to save a 20% down payment, you probably don't have the fiscal discipline to borrow a ton of money to buy a home.

3. Non-amortizing mortgages are irresponsible. If you don't pay down principal, you are basically a renter who takes market risk. Most people who think they have enough fiscal discipline to use interest-only products don't. For most humans, discipline needs to be imposed from the outside (in this case, in the form of mandatory repayment of principal).

Posted by: lechacal at October 28, 2008 10:24 AM in response to Mortgages More Elusive for Some Minorities

...of course I should point out that as between Sebb and The What only one of them has proven correct about anything he has said at this point.

Posted by: lechacal at October 27, 2008 2:16 PM in response to The Housing Crisis Has Arrived

Sebb cracks me up. He's basically the anti-What. They both have about the same critical thinking skills and the same penchant for cut-and-paste arguments, but their views are on exactly oppsite ends of the spectrum. It's like matter and anti-matter.

What we really need to to get Sebb in a fight with the What. How hilarious would that be?

Posted by: lechacal at October 27, 2008 2:13 PM in response to The Housing Crisis Has Arrived

I second what 11217 said.

Posted by: lechacal at October 27, 2008 11:58 AM in response to The Clermont Reborn As Rentals

Brownstoner, humility is a virtue and all, but please put yourself on the damn list.

Posted by: lechacal at October 27, 2008 10:55 AM in response to Top 50: The Final Wrap

I get the sense that most of you don't recognize the cartoon. Where is the sense of culture? This is from the South Park World of Warcraft episode, where the boys go online to battle the greatest ever World of Warcraft player (pictured above), who does nothing but sit in front of his computer all day and play World of Warcraft.

Posted by: lechacal at October 24, 2008 4:02 PM in response to The What - Revealed!

Yourself, brownstoner, but better for you to have omitted yourself and let us point out the omission.

Posted by: lechacal at October 24, 2008 2:47 PM in response to Top 50: Who'd We Leave Out?

...and yet no attempt to discredit the authenticity of the photo, which was taken this morning by his own camcorder (which was hacked by an out-of-work MIT grad).

Posted by: lechacal at October 24, 2008 11:55 AM in response to The What - Revealed!

http://www.worldofwar.net/gallery/data/500/southpark.jpg

Remind you all of anyone?

Posted by: lechacal at October 24, 2008 10:23 AM in response to Oh no.. World markets collapse..

My last post to Hoboken probably came out wrong. I don't mean to suggest that price trends don't matter. That would just be stupid. I was trying to articulate that charting gives people a false sense of comfort that some sort of scientific order exists in a market ruled by human emotion. Doubly true in today's market (and I don't use "today" in the broader sense).

Posted by: lechacal at October 24, 2008 9:50 AM in response to Oh no.. World markets collapse..

....rewind....

"Hoboken, chicken bones and tea leaves mean nothing in this market."

....pause....

Posted by: lechacal at October 24, 2008 9:39 AM in response to Oh no.. World markets collapse..

...rewind...

"Hoboken, charting is silly. If you are making decisions based on charts that are based on a history of relative normalcy, you have no real idea what the future will bring. Charting brings a false sense of control. Right now you shouldn't trust things like technical support levels any further than you can throw a piano."

....pause....

Posted by: lechacal at October 23, 2008 5:10 PM in response to The prefect financial storm has hit land..

I agree, the brothel is better. Those two blocks make a real difference in my mind. Sterling and 7th just feels cold to me. Lincoln and 7th is a lot nicer.

I have not bid 20% below asking. I guess I meant drop asking prices by 20% and then I'll bid somewhere south of that. At current prices it's just clear to me that I have a fundamental disagreement with them over price, so no sense in pursuing it. I almost bid on a place on 8th Ave a few weeks ago, but then decided not to. I now have my eye on a place on PPW. I doubt I will pull the trigger on any of these places though. There is just zero incentive to move. Prices are going down. At this point it's almost an absolute that I can buy cheaper a year from now, and probably even cheaper a year after that. Why would I make a huge leveraged purchase in this falling market, even if I think I might be getting a deal?

Posted by: lechacal at October 23, 2008 2:22 PM in response to Checking in on The Vermeil

The Vermeil is the perfect example of the kind of places that will take a huge hit in the next couple of years. Browntones and the like will be affected to a lesser extent. New construction condos with this kind of pricing are a huge risk for buyers in this kind of market. I have looked at the Vermeil a couple of times and like what they have, but asking prices would have to come down AT LEAST 20% for me to bite. I feel sorry for anyone who has bought at the Vermeil anywhere near asking prices.

Posted by: lechacal at October 23, 2008 12:16 PM in response to Checking in on The Vermeil

Sebb, your childlike demeanor is almost endearing. Have a great weekend. Peace out.

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 3:51 PM in response to Another Third Quarter Market Report

DarkStar, you should sign back in as sebb. It will be easier to keep track of you that way.

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 2:58 PM in response to Here's To Our Future

FatLenny: Perhaps it will be. Happy to buy at an even lower price. If you are worried about where stocks are going to be in the next few weeks, you are probably missing the point.

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 2:29 PM in response to Another Third Quarter Market Report

Sebb, now you are saying two completely different things. You are putting money in the stock market (good decision, but doubt you have the capital with as much stress as you seem to be experiencing about housing prices) and buying homes in Brooklyn (I doubt it - you are clearly already pretty spooked about the one you own, but in any event that's a bad make-believe decision).

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 1:51 PM in response to Another Third Quarter Market Report

Reading Sebb's posts, I get the sense that he really thinks that whoever wins a shouting match between housing bulls and housing bears will have the power to move the market accordingly. It's almost like he is afraid that if he doesn't come here every day and fight as hard as he can for his viewpoint his property will lose value. Sebb, the market doesn't hear you. The market will do what it does. You placed your bets. Now you can sit back and observe and offer your views, but the cheerleading is awkward and transparent. Do you honestly think you are going to change the way a single person approaches a real estate decision? Really?

To the subject at hand, a Corcoran report is not worth the paper it is printed on. Unless it is government or independent (non-industry) data, you might as well be reading Enron's 2000 annual report.

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 1:17 PM in response to Another Third Quarter Market Report

You all left way too early. I couldn't escape from work until almost 10, and by the time I got there I couldn't find anyone.

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 12:00 PM in response to Here's To Our Future

Well then I totally saw you when I walked in, but didn't see any name tags (the bouncer guys said look for name tags). Oh well. I was the tall guy in a suit and tie with a shaved/baldish head.

Posted by: lechacal at October 17, 2008 10:07 AM in response to Where Was Everyone?

Damn. Theoretically stuck in South America for the rest of the week. If I come back I have a thing that will go until at least 9:30 or 10, but would try after that to make it. So I'm about 25% and that's a late-night 25%. I hope I make it and enough peole are still there.

Posted by: lechacal at October 14, 2008 9:20 PM in response to Mission Accomplished

Wasder for Boro President. Move over Marty!

Posted by: lechacal at October 10, 2008 11:10 AM in response to Dow Status Check

Sebb: People can do whatever they want. I am just telling people what I have chosen to do with my own money. You chose differently, and that's fine. If you think buying Brooklyn real estate at current prices is a good idea, then...well....good for you I guess. No point in having an angry exchange about it. Time will be an impartial judge.

Posted by: lechacal at October 10, 2008 10:58 AM in response to Dow Status Check

The unbelievable pessimism all around me gives me confidence that now is the time to buy. Maybe it goes down more. Another 20%? OK, that's fine. But with valuations where they are, stocks are getting cheap even by pre-hedge fund world standards.

If you are afraid of what is going to happen to the stock market in the next couple of weeks, you are either a short-term investor or you are missing the point.

And before someone points out the obvious correlary to the real estate market, I will offer the rebuttal that I also sold equities in 2007 and moved into cash. Just because I am a long-term investor doesn't mean I don't move out of the market when I see a bubble on a macro level.

Posted by: lechacal at October 10, 2008 10:34 AM in response to Dow Status Check

I have money and I am putting it (gradually) into stocks. It is less risky to buy stocks for the long-term right now than it ever has been in my lifetime.

A leveraged purchase of real estate in New York City at current prices? Massively risky. An unlevered long-term bet on equities at current prices? Not very risky.

Posted by: lechacal at October 10, 2008 10:18 AM in response to Dow Status Check

HOBOKEN: I agree with market bottom today. Funny, I just walked past the NYSE and there wasn't much excitement beyond a couple of news crews. I briefly thought the circuit breakers had tripped but apparently I'm wrong.

Posted by: lechacal at October 10, 2008 10:12 AM in response to Banks Putting the Squeeze on Jumbo Loan Borrowers

It pains me that the bloody What and DOW8000 have been so accurate in their predictions. It's like having all of the nonsense the village idiot mumbles every day suddenly come true. DOW8000 isn't quite as offensive as the What, but still, I am having the sinking feeling one must get when one realizes that the obnoxious co-worker with tourette's is going to be the new boss because, no matter how offensive he is, he happens to have been right. Sigh.

Posted by: lechacal at October 9, 2008 6:12 PM in response to Dow Closes Down 679 Points

What is happening right now is no different from what was happening in other U.S. markets starting in 2005. New York is three years late for various reasons. Buyers and sellers were in a standoff nationally for a while as well.

Just remember this: Resist the first five or six urges to "jump on a deal before the market turns around." Don't buy until everyone is exhausted with the declining market. You will be rewarded for your patience. There will be false starts to a turnaround, the first of which will be when the equity markets recover. The sebbs of the world will say that the stock market is up, so better buy right now. They will be wrong. People will slowly realize that the recovery in the stock market has very little to do with the price of real estate in Brooklyn and the market will go back into decline. Then there will be another false start in the New York market when the national housing market turns around. Don't buy. Keep waiting. When New York prices keep going down even after the stock market and national market have recovered, sellers will finally capitulate. That won't happen for at least another two years, maybe more. Your patience will be rewarded.

Posted by: lechacal at October 9, 2008 1:40 PM in response to Average Prices Up in BK, Inventory Down

Thanks for sharing this! It sounds like you have a very sensible approach to ownership.

Posted by: lechacal at October 9, 2008 12:46 PM in response to Interiors: Expanding the Space But Not the Debt

My view is that brownstone condo conversions will see the biggest price drops in the next few years.

Posted by: lechacal at October 9, 2008 12:43 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 50 Sterling Place

Asking prices are currently irrelevant.

As I have pointed out many times, the top of any asset bubble is typically characterized by decreasing supply and barely increasing prices. Prices start to decline, and some sellers hold out thinking things will get better. They don't. Prices decrease some more, and the weakest sellers give in. Inventory increases, sales volume increases and prices decrease. The cycle continues until everyone who thought that holding out was a good idea kicks themselves for not selling at a mere 15% discount when they had the chance. Sellers capitulate. The market bottoms.

This will take several years to happen here. If anyone wants to start reading the posts that the sebbs of the world will be posting over the various stages of price declines, I can pretty much cut and paste from any other bubble collapses over the years. Every bubble is different in some way, but the psychology is always the same. The process is painfully predictable.

Posted by: lechacal at October 9, 2008 12:13 PM in response to Average Prices Up in BK, Inventory Down

Need spousal permission too (not polite to just nick of the the bar to drink with strangers and leave the wife at home with a couple of kids without at least offering something in exchange).

Posted by: lechacal at October 8, 2008 11:11 AM in response to End of the World (Or Maybe Not) Party

I have about three conflicting things going on that day (including possible needing to be out of the country) but otherwise will try my damndest to be there.

Posted by: lechacal at October 8, 2008 11:05 AM in response to End of the World (Or Maybe Not) Party

11217, please, at least have the courage to defend a real viewpoint. Don't do the "conservatives are stupid" routine. It makes you sound, well, unintelligent.

I guess it's now even worth trying to stem the inevitable tide on this thread now. Why doesn't everyone go ahead and watch the debate and come back and post your uninformed drivel. I'll be here at work actually doing something about the financial crisis.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 9:06 PM in response to Quote of the Day

IronBalls, please spare us the political commentary. Good for you for resisting the urge towards statism in times of crisis. Now all you need is some experience and wisdom to back up your views.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 8:59 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Sure. I'll check under the mattress.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 6:34 PM in response to Quote of the Day

The fridge isn't where your first wife kept me.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 6:15 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Yes Adam, French as in le chacal.

Sam, there was absolutely no gloating in my post (maybe you think I was gloating about comparative returns, but that's like saying "you should have seen the other guy"). FatLenny asked, I answered. I am pointing out that I am willing to stand by my views as to the long-term prospects of the equity markets vs. NYC real estate. Clearly I have losses in equities. I was just pointing out that an unlevered equity portfolio is less risky than real estate ownership in the current market.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 6:02 PM in response to Quote of the Day

I should add that of course I didn't lose a penny on the down payment money that I didn't cycle back into the market last year (which as I said is sitting in CDs).

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 4:56 PM in response to Quote of the Day

FatLenny: Overall (excluding the cash I have set aside for down payment) my equity portfolio is down about 10% in the past few trading days. It may go down more, which is fine. If it does, I will buy more.

My cash is sitting in CDs earning a boring 4% or so.

Bear in mind that my equity holdings are unlevered, so my 10% drop is equivalent to a 2% drop in real estate for someone who put 20% down. What happens when real estate goes down 10%? The levered buyer loses 50% of his equity. I sure as hell ain't down anywhere near 50%.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 4:55 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Polemicist: Huh?

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 3:52 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"I am much more bearish on the financial markets and the national real estate market than on NYC market."

Of course you are. You are human. You become bearish after a big drop in prices, which is the exact opposite of the right reaction. You will presumably be more bearish on NYC real estate than financial markets in a couple of years after the dow is back up and NYC real estate is in the crapper.

Some of my smartest friends have the same difficulty distinguishing hindsight from foresight.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 3:47 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Wasder: Guesstimate? Mid-2010.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 1:47 PM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

sam, where did you get the idea that someone's credit rating will suffer if they exercise their contractual right to walk away and pay liquidated damages (i.e., the deposit)? And where did you get the idea there will be any lawyer's fees involved (other than talking to your lawyer and confirming that the contract works as I just guessed)?

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 11:34 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

Aussie, I respectfully disagree. I am of the view that national real estate is close to a bottom and will stabilize in the next year or so. I am also of the view that the New York market, for many reasons, has been very slow to correct, but will do so. My bets have been laid as follows:

1. Real estate will stabilize on a national level.

2. Credit and equity markets will recover. Those who have been buying equity at current levels will do very well.

3. The New York market has just begun dropping sharply. It will take as long as the national market to find a bottom, but will do so several years later.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 11:22 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

But wasder, what I was suggesting is that there is no $38k on the table. It has boiled off into space. It's gone. This isn't a question of walking away from the 10% that was put down. That already disappeared. It's a question about whether to chase it with another 10%.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 11:02 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

If the contract says that the buyer gives up the deposit if he walks, then that's the bargain the parties made. The buyer walks, he gives up his deposit. It's what the seller agreed to. If the contract says the buyer has to buy regardless, then that's the bargain they made. But I imagine the contract provides for the former. Sellers need to read and understand the contracts they sign. There is no fuzzy sense of fairness here. There are, however, words on paper that the parties agreed to and judges who will enforce those words.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 10:45 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

And yes, I am aware that I posed three questions rather than two.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 10:26 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

I answered before I saw your post that you will put down another 10% at closing. This completely changes my advice.

Unless you are planning to be in this place truly long term, run, do not walk, run from this closing. Start saving again and you will live to buy again without being trapped underwater and wondering when you will be right side up again.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 10:25 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

You have probably already lost your deposit. Either you walk away and lose it cleanly or you close and have zero equity on day one. That basically makes you a renter with a tax deduction. Either way your down payment is gone.

Which means your decision boils down to two very simple quesitons:

1. How long (realistically) will you be at this apartment?

2. How much will your total after tax cost of owning be if you close (including maintentance, insurance, improvement, etc., plus closing costs spread over the amount of time you will live there)?

3. What does it cost to rent an equivalent apartment?

If you are going to be in this place for less than, say, seven years, and if it is cheaper to rent, then just rent. If for any reason you decide to move before you are currently planning to (which happens to a lot of people) it will be easier to walk away from a lease than a mortgage.

Posted by: lechacal at October 7, 2008 10:21 AM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

This is like reading a menu for a restaurant that hasn't gottena food delivery for weeks.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 2:30 PM in response to JUMBO FIXED vs ARMs

Snark, you funny.

I'll take those tulip bulbs in exchange for some Cisco and JDSU stock I bought in 1999. Or the oil and gas participation interest I bought back in July. Or the $1.2 million 3-bedroom park slope condo conversion I bought in 2007.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 1:03 PM in response to Price Cuts at Be@Schermerhorn

Wasder, good for you. I'm glad it's working out for you.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 11:28 AM in response to The great experiment 2008

This is a real estate board, so I will attempt to make the first relevant comment in this thread.

Look at what is happening in the financial markets. People are afraid that there is no botttom, that stocks will just keep going down. The negative sentiment is overwhelming. Buyers are few, sellers are many. People are terrified that if they buy today it will still be a ways before the bottom. Everyone is waiting for stability before buying.

In 2-3 years, this will be happening in New York real estate.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 10:22 AM in response to Stocks decline worldwide!!! Global crash alert!!!

HOBOKEN: If you are actually looking to book a quick profit, I would sell right now and cut your losses. You might get lucky, you might not. But you are basically putting your money on red.

If you are a long-term investor, this is probably the best buying opportunity in my lifetime. But I am using money that I don't need for another 20 years or so.

Beware losing your shirt to charts and "support levels" and such.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 10:17 AM in response to Stocks decline worldwide!!! Global crash alert!!!

DIBS: I think one of my kids P00WED this morning.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 10:10 AM in response to Stocks decline worldwide!!! Global crash alert!!!

I am continuing to buy stocks. I have set aside a down payment for the place I expect to buy in the next couple of years in bank accounts. Of the rest, I am now almost 100% back in the market (after being all cash until a few months ago).

I love discount shopping!

Don't get me wrong - the market could go down another 10% from here. And if it does, I know exactly what I am doing with my next paycheck.

Posted by: lechacal at October 6, 2008 9:48 AM in response to Stocks decline worldwide!!! Global crash alert!!!

HOBOKEN: Look up from your charts. Charting sometimes makes sense under more normal market conditions. If you keep trusting your money to charts you are going to either lose your shirt or lose out big on the rebound.

I smell capitulation. Tear up your charts and get a good whiff of it.

Posted by: lechacal at October 4, 2008 10:58 AM in response to No Bailout!

Sebb, did you just call Miss Muffett loose?

Posted by: lechacal at October 3, 2008 3:21 PM in response to Open House Picks

sebb: Please follow these instructions:

1. Place your right hand, palm facing backwards and thumb to the right, on the left side of your throat.

2. Place your left hand, palm facing backwards and thumb to the left, on the right side of your throat.

3. Squeeze.

Posted by: lechacal at October 3, 2008 3:15 PM in response to Open House Picks

Why is it this thread keeps getting sexual? Gay bars, champagne whores, "getting Biff's back." It it a full moon or something?

Anyway, it sounds like these people are getting mad props for good design and general coolness. Good for them. We need more groovy people in the real estate world. Do they have any sales or is it just rentals? It sounds like I should check this place out, but I'm looking to buy only.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 11:23 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

The Jackal family likes the block very much.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 9:48 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

For all of those who are on this block, were you at the block party Sunday?

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 9:35 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

I don't think I could pick Cathy Griffin out of a lineup. Or Judy Garland for that matter (isn't she a really old actress?) I could pick out Cher, but that's like saying you can tell horses apart from humans.

No idea what the cool kids do these days (disco balls or not). The last time I went out dancing I think they were playing Ace of Base and someone was wearing Hammer Pants.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 5:10 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

sebb: Ease up there, old buddy. I just pointed out that no one knows who you are. The point is that this is an anonymous message board. There is no pride here, unless you have some issues with separating your Internet personality from real life. Relax man.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 5:01 PM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

Biff, I emailed you earlier about the End of the World thing, but now I'm wondering if a disco ball is suddenly going to drop from the ceiling while everyone starts dancing to The Village People (11217, that's what all gay people do, right)?

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 4:52 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

Who wants to quit their jobs and go in an a little neighborhood bar?

Mostly kidding.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 3:39 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

Clover Club has tasty drinks, but a little to high-end for me. You are totally right - we need a bar. No, 11217, not a gay bar. All would be welcome of course, I just don't want to feel self-conscious about being a straight fashion mistake when I sit down for a drink.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 3:23 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

I live on this block. I can't really think of anything else I would rather have there. We pretty much have everything else we need close by. Might as well look at real estate porn (listings in the window) when I walk by.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 2:48 PM in response to Streetlevel: New Realty Office on 7th Avenue?

I am surprised to hear that you can get the escrow back. Are you quite sure you see eye-to-eye with the sellers (and their lawyer) on that point?

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 2:41 PM in response to Close? Or Walk Away?

You can get your escrow back? Seriously? RUN, do not walk, RUN from this closing.

Unless you got a truly phenomenal deal, that is.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 2:26 PM in response to Close? Or Walk Away?

sebb, the market doesn't hear you. What you say here is not going to affect the value of your property. There is no reason to be anything but honest here. None of us even has any idea who you are.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 1:09 PM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

11217: That's a classic and completely irrelevant argument. I can rent a home. I don't need to buy in order to have a roof over my head. DOW brough up David Lereah (one of my favorite real estate cheerleaders), who used to say that all the time. He wrote a really fantastic book in 2005, the title of which was exactly as follows:

"Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them"

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0385514344/ref=sib_dp_pop_fc?ie=UTF8&p=S001#reader-link

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 12:11 PM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

I mean $40,000 of course.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 11:58 AM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

"You renters who are saying, well, I've just made 100k and hope to make another 100k by sitting on the sidelines: What if you're wrong? What if credit loosens and a wave of frustrated buyers flood the streets?"

If that defines the risk I am taking, then I am happy to take it.

Buying real estate is so much riskier than people have thought over the past 10 years. Rising prices are like a novocaine shot directly to the risk receptors. Same happens with stocks. Here's something to illustrate the point: buying stocks right now is really not very risky at all. Prices are low. Sure, they might go down another 10%, but it is MUCH less risky to buy now than it was a year ago. No matter how many bubbles there are, and no matter how many crashes, humans expect a market's future to look like its immediate past.

In fact, I would say that buying real estate in Brooklyn right now is much, much riskier than buying into an S&P 500 index fund. This is particularly true on the assumption that the latter is not a leveraged bet like the former. Put $200k down on a $1m place that loses 20% in value and you are completely wiped out. Put $200k in the stock market and watch it go down another 20% and you have lost $20,000.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 11:56 AM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

serpentor: Depends on a lot of things, like when you signed, what the neighborhood is, whether you bargained well, etc. But assuming your purchase is not unique (which it probably isn't), my advice would be as follows:

Multiply the price you are about to pay by 20%. Take that number and subtract from it the amount of your deposit. If the resulting number is positive, walk away and start saving again. You will live to buy another day. If it is negative, close.

It will hurt either way. There is no easy answer.

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 11:29 AM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

Sebb: Happy renter here. As you know, I sold last year and started renting. I have probably already gotten a discount of $100,000 on whatever property I will eventually buy. Why on Earth would I be bitter about making an extra $8,333 a month (completely tax free)? And in the meantime I have been sending much less cash out the door on my rent than I would on a mortgage for a comparable apartment.

I would guess I will shave another $200,000 of the price of my future home in the next 18 months or so.

le (happy renter) chacal

Posted by: lechacal at October 1, 2008 10:47 AM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

Everything is negotiable if the law doesn't provide an answer. For the most part, this boils down to how your rent compares to market. Can the landlord actually get $1850 from someone else? Will you have to pay $1850 if you move into a comparable place? If so, you might be in a pretty weak bargaining position.

If you have been a quiet, thoughtful tenant who pays rent on time and doesn't complain all the time, the landlord will probably give something up to keep you. Don't be shy about pointing out what a good tenant you are if it's true. Landlords are scared of ending up with nighmare tenants, and if you're good they will want to keep you.

In the end, don't threaten to walk unless you are prepared to do so. Price what it would cost to move, make sure you can do it, and then tell the landlord you are going to walk. Then the negotiation begins.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 8:09 PM in response to Standard rent increase??

11217, cultural revival is a really fantastic point. You're spot on about the relationship between dark times and culture.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 2:59 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

"My brother has a very high position on WS and I have been with a lot of his friends."

So you're that kind of sister, are you?

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 2:53 PM in response to A Letter From The Inside

"i find it hard to believe that a significant portion of people who were smart enough to get the high-paying financial jobs (or related positions with similarly high percentage of compensation traditionally as bonus) are really that stupid about their personal finances to be "living on credit card debt."

Oh lordy lordy. I can only assume you don't have a lot of Wall Street friends. I have quite a few friends and acquaintances in their late 20s and early 30s who fit the profile perfectly. Some of them are Harvard/Yale. Some are Yale/Harvard. A few are even state school kids like I am. Some work in law, some in banking. Not a single one of them has managed to pay off his student loans, notwithstanding annual compensation into the 7 figures. Where does it go? To list just a few things:

- anything expensive that attracts that sort of woman (like table service at Manhattan see-and-be-seen bars)
- weekends in Vegas
- strippers
- surprisingly dandyish and expensive clothing for straight men
- sports betting

You wouldn't think a million dollars a year can actually disappear on those things, but it does.

They finally settle down with some expensive girl who went to Mount Holyoke or Smith and start popping out kids. Then the list changes (now it's BMWs and vacation houses and whatever else the wife needs to compete with her supposed friends), but the basic premise is the same. They are living poor, spending every penny on the illusion of wealth.

Not everyone is like this, but I think you would be shocked at how many people fit this profile.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 2:10 PM in response to A Letter From The Inside

SnarkSlope: What is unusual about the current situation is that a very high income group of people is getting hit the hardest. I would not call them "multi-millionaires" as you did, because in my experience the net worth of many investment bankers, traders, etc. is often surpisingly small. The desire to live above one's means affects the rich even more than the middle class. I spend a lot of time around 7 and 8 figure earners, and their spending habits shock me. Someone recently brought up Bonfire of the Vanities, which has a good illustration of how high earners feel compelled to choose the appearance of wealth over actual wealth.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 11:18 AM in response to A Letter From The Inside

Oh for Chrissake people, the world is not ending. Not by a long shot. This is a crisis of confidence, and confidence will return as soon as fear is again replaced by greed. I thought the drop in the market yesterday was great -- I am a buyer of stocks, not a seller, and I love buying things on sale. I will start to be a seller in 20 years or so.

We are ripping off the band-aid, which is exactly what Japan didn't do 20ish years ago. This means lots of pain and dislocation now, but a healthy financial system much faster than the 15 years it took the Japanese.

NYC will be hit harder than other places. NYC real estate will, in my opinion, take a gigantic bath. Particularly in Manhattan. But the world is not ending.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 10:25 AM in response to A Letter From The Inside

What a cute little letter.

Here are some excerpts from a Washington Mutual press release dated about 9 months ago:

"The substantial infusion of new capital, dividend reduction, significant expense reductions, and the major change in our home loans business all combine to further fortify WaMu's strong capital and liquidity position.......Solid revenues and continued focus on expense control.......Net interest income remains strong...Solid quarterly results"

I won't bother to pull up any of the many other examples of reassuring letters from leaders of companies that are in big trouble and are making a pitch for confidence.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 9:51 AM in response to A Letter From The Inside

Everyone is going to be fine. Wasder, you in particular are going to be fine, because you clearly understand your position very well and don't lie to yourself to feel better. Brooklyn real estate will take a big fat bath, which is bad for anyone who wants to sell in the next few years but will be good for anyone who wants to buy in the next few years.

Posted by: lechacal at September 29, 2008 4:34 PM in response to The end of the America's Banking system.

I just took a walk down Broad Street, past the NYSE and down Wall Street. I saw one guy in a suit heading to the subway who had clearly been crying. Maybe he has to go home and tell his family some bad news. I could see so much stress on the faces of anyone in a suit. The tourists have no idea what is going on.

I will repeat what I have said many times. The stock market is relatively unimportant. What really matters are the credit markets. And as of this moment, there are no credit markets. It's not that they are down. They just don't exist.

Posted by: lechacal at September 29, 2008 2:42 PM in response to The end of the America's Banking system.

Well, now it's nice weather. Go Mets. Going to go check out the block party. Peace out.

Montrose, even you can be needled into an occasional all caps post with exclamation points. Happens to the best of us I guess. Your posts really do tend to be quite well written.

Posted by: lechacal at September 28, 2008 1:35 PM in response to Open House Picks

Montrose, don't be a one of these: http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/02/24/75-threatening-to-move-to-canada/

You are clearly an intelligent and articulate human being. Don't ruin it with this sort of nonsense.

Posted by: lechacal at September 28, 2008 11:37 AM in response to Open House Picks

le chacal means the jackal in French. That makes me Mr. Jackal. Sorry you misinterpreted my reference to Mrs. Jackal, whom I adore to the ends of the Earth (just like the little jackals) even if we are voting for different people.

Montrose, come on, are you really going to use the tired old "I'm moving to Canada if a Republican wins" routine? Until now I have been very impressed by the thought you put into your posts (probably the best written on this site). You just dropped down quite a few notches with that comment.

Posted by: lechacal at September 28, 2008 11:33 AM in response to Open House Picks

Anyone else going to the Berkeley Place block party today?

Posted by: lechacal at September 28, 2008 9:37 AM in response to Open House Picks

Yeah, 150 grains of lead.

Posted by: lechacal at September 27, 2008 11:23 PM in response to Non-toxic product to keep recycling area vermin free

Miss Muffett, I don't think there is very much at stake in this presidential race. In fact, I think there is very little at stake. There was much, much more at stake in the 2004 election. For the record, I voted for John Kerry.

In the middle of a crisis, the critical choice of leadership has already been made.

It's Saturday night and I'm sitting here working my ass off on matters very directly relating to the current crisis. I would be happy to defend my choice another time. Honestly. But explaining why I don't find Palin particularly offensive would take a lot of time, because it is not easy to do for this audience (see my post about being in the minority).

Posted by: lechacal at September 27, 2008 10:21 PM in response to Open House Picks

As it turns out, I did watch the debate. There is only one television in the house, and Mrs. Jackal absolutely insisted. Mrs. Jackal, an Obama supporter, spent a fair amount of energy making noises meant to make it clear to the rest of the audience (i.e., me) that she really really really likes Obama and really really really doesn't like McCain.

In conservative areas of the country, liberals constantly have to explain and defend their positions, while conservatives (who are already in the majority and therefore generally presumed to be right by any random group of people) instead resort to bullying and name-calling to enforce the majority opinion. The opposite is very much true in places like Park Slope. Most conservatives I know here are remarkably level-headed and well spoken about their views. Most liberals I know (that is, most of my friends and family) resort to playground bullying and name-calling rather than offering anything in the way of intelligent debate. It's fairly basic human nature I guess -- if you're already in the majority, the most efficient way to win is just to bully the minority -- but it still makes me sad to see otherwise intelligent people degrade into name-calling children every four years.

So yes, Pierre, I am just too scared to watch the debate. And there is a good chance that I will vote for the "fundamentalist nutjobs" McSame and the Disasta from Alaska. I guess that makes me a Southern Nascar fan.

lechacal

Posted by: lechacal at September 27, 2008 8:36 AM in response to Open House Picks

Well I certainly didn't mean to, and in any event McCain is not "my man" even if there is a better than even odds chance that I will vote for him. I guess I was pointing out the futility of debating any of these things with people who resort to name calling. I generally don't consider people who consider "fundamentalist nutjob" to be an argument worthy of the time and energy it takes to actually talk about politics.

And I'm not going to bother watching the debates tonight. Watching two perfectly intelligent human beings dumb down complicated ideas into sound bites makes my skin crawl. I would gladly sit in a room with a group of calm, intelligent Democrats and Republicans (you know, people who don't resort to exclamation points or ad hominem attacks) to discuss the election. I have absolutely no interest in hearing the version that will be on TV tonight. I have too much respect for both men to watch them play party clown to the masses.

Posted by: lechacal at September 26, 2008 5:54 PM in response to Open House Picks

I have always wondered why people consider a play on a political candidate's name to be an appropriate substitute for intelligent debate. I note that this behavior seems to be mostly (but not exclusively) limited to people on the left, which is odd, because they also like to hold themselves out as the more intellectually side of the political house. I am always a bit mystified when otherwise intelligent people engage in this sort of behavior.

Person: "Oh, so you're voting for McSame and the Disasta from Alaska?"

Me: (realizing that it is probably pointless to attempt meaningful debate) "Um..........yes."

Posted by: lechacal at September 26, 2008 5:30 PM in response to Open House Picks

No, I definitely would not pay asking for this place. I might offer a million, but that's projecting the price I think this place will go for in a couple of years.

I have basically decided it's not productive for me to try to fight the market. I'll just rent and wait as prices go down, which they are doing. I have plenty of cash and can pounce on the right property very quickly when the time comes.

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 8:28 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 86 Prospect Park West 3 BR

I have probably seen every single 3-bed in the Slope that has been on the market in the past 6 months, and I say tell you there is no way there isn't something wrong with this comp. As everyone knows I think prices are headed down (possibly sharply), but for a current asking price to be at this level suggests some real weakness with the property. Even all of the cookie-cutter 3-beds on 2nd street between 4th and 5th (take your pick - there are lots on the market) are all asking over $1 million (not that they'll get it, but they are all asking).

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 6:13 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 86 Prospect Park West 3 BR

No floor plan, no details. Can't tell enough about the property. Too small to be comp.

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 5:27 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 86 Prospect Park West 3 BR

ka8000, I have to call bullshit on your post. Please tell us which 3-bedroom apartments that are better than this have gone for under $1 million in the past year. I have been in the market for the same thing in the same period. This is an anonymous board, so go ahead and give us addresses.

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 3:11 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 86 Prospect Park West 3 BR

Concur. $1.1 million is fair value. Less and the buyer is getting a bad deal. More and the seller is getting shafted.

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 1:33 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 86 Prospect Park West 3 BR

I also am surprised. I doubt the developer will give accurate information on whether they are covering mansion tax, closing fees, lawyers fees, etc, making additional improvements or giving other incentives to get deals done at "asking price."

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 12:40 PM in response to Checking In: On Prospect Park

Insert my usual reaction to asking prices here.

Posted by: lechacal at September 25, 2008 11:45 AM in response to Checking In: On Prospect Park

Is the Observer letting high school students write articles now? I can't believe they actually printed that garbage. There isn't even a good argument that I can debate. It's just a bunch of poorly considered drivel.

Posted by: lechacal at September 24, 2008 11:47 AM in response to Mad Men Moving to Wall Street Digs?

This debate is academic. If the bailout is not passed we are a few days from financial meltdown.

After it is passed, you can all continue to debate its many perverse consequences.

Posted by: lechacal at September 23, 2008 3:25 PM in response to Pop Quiz: Including Homeowners in the Bailout?

No wasder, nothing that principled. Large groups of people aren't really capable of principled thought.

From where I sit (currently, in my office near Wall Street, where I have been almost nonstop for the past week, right smack dab in the middle of all of this), I can offer my belief that the general public, and even the vast majority of those who consider themselves informed, have no idea how quickly the current financial situation could turn into a panic. Or it could boil away like it never happened. I have never seen a situation so volatile on such a large scale. But volatility works both ways. This could get very bad very quickly, or it could go away very quickly.

And if this gets very bad quickly, God help us all.

Posted by: lechacal at September 23, 2008 12:21 AM in response to What Lies Beneath?

I take that back. 25% chance, not 40%. Like the housing crash, it would not start in New York but it would eventually find its way here.

To be clear, I do not think this is likely. 25% means 3 to 1 odds of it not happening.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2008 8:51 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

In my view there is an approximately 40% of widespread civil unrest in the next two weeks.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2008 8:37 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

Thanks wasder. Nice to have a fan.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2008 5:38 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

sebb, this isn't a cheerleading contest. This is a place where people can come debate the ins and outs and what-have-yous of Brooklyn real estate. Just because someone is a owner doesn't mean they believe the market will go up. Even owner in Brooklyn could get on this site and cheerlead and it won't make a lick of difference. Why don't you tell us what you really think about the market rather than being worried about who is cheerleading for what. You're an owner. OK. Are you worried? Are you feeling trapped by the market? Let it out. You're among complete strangers.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2008 4:19 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

sebb, your views on economics mystify me. NYC has just suffered a massive loss of wealth and is in the process of suffering huge job losses. NYC still hasn't purged its real estate market and is about to do so.

I appreciate that you are probably a homeowner, but writing these sorts of things on this board isn't going to make it happen.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2008 9:51 AM in response to What Lies Beneath?

There is so much ink that has been spilled on this topic on this board. There is no point in trying to repeat it all here. The general consensus is that there is a bubble, the bubble is in the process of bursing and prices are heading down. I certainly wouldn't buy at current prices, and if I owned I would probably sell ASAP (in fact I did sell last year and now rent), and I wouldn't quibble over price cuts.

As annoying as the What is, his predictions are coming strangely true. Expect this week to be more astonishing than last week.

Posted by: lechacal at September 21, 2008 6:22 PM in response to Can someone explain sellers' prices to me?

bpmbpm: If you don't like the price, don't pay it. Rent. This place (or places like it) will be cheaper in the next couple of years.

traditionalmod: Actually, I don't think recent comps are particularly relevant. Prices are falling. Recents comps are a cap, not a floor.

There is a binary decision to be made. Either buy or don't. Either sell or don't. It's that simple. If a seller won't come to your price, then don't buy. Rent. Soon enough, sellers will increasingly have to come to prices that right now they would consider insulting. In the meantime, there is nothing to do but thank them very politely for their time.

Emotion shouldn't be part of the process. That goes for sellers too, although you should expect to see some pretty emotional sellers in the next couple of years.

Posted by: lechacal at September 21, 2008 3:09 PM in response to Can someone explain sellers' prices to me?

bpmbpm: If you don't like the price, don't pay it. Rent. This place (or places like it) will be cheaper in the next couple of years.

traditionalmod: Actually, I don't think recent comps are particularly relevant. Prices are falling. Recents comps are a cap, not a floor.

There is a binary decision to be made. Either buy or don't. Either sell or don't. It's that simple. If a seller won't come to your price, then don't sell. Rent. Soon enough, sellers will increasingly have to come to prices that right now they would consider insulting. In the meantime, there is nothing to do but thank them very politely for their time.

Emotion shouldn't be part of the process. That goes for sellers too, although you should expect to see some pretty emotional sellers in the next couple of years.

Posted by: lechacal at September 21, 2008 3:08 PM in response to Can someone explain sellers' prices to me?

It's all in your head.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 11:20 PM in response to Where is Prospect Height

Funny thing is, I have dealt with this broker before and I think he is a nice and reasonable guy. He had a really nice brick house listing on Union between 4th and 5th in late 2006 at what was frankly a pretty reasonable price. I also note that he took over this listing from another broker, and I think it was already at this price. I think the seller is clearly being the idiot here and not the broker.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 5:24 PM in response to NOT A THREE BEDROOM

Frankly, wasder, you sound like you are going to be just fine.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 4:53 PM in response to SELL vs RENT?

Ketchup is not a vegetable. Q.E.D.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 4:36 PM in response to NOT A THREE BEDROOM

My view on Fort Greene is based on how much property there has appreciated as compared to other neighborhoods. A "harder they fall" sort of argument. Maybe the prices there will be stickier than I think. I would also point out that I lived in Fort Greene in 2001-2002 (before a lot of the run-up, although not all of it) and think the proximity the the projects (at least for part of Fort Greene) is an issue.

I feel more certain about my predictions as to condos vs. brownstones and houses than I do about my neighborhood-by-neighborhood predictions.

I feel most certain about my prediction that Manhattan real estate is in for a serious beating. I think this will have a real effect on Brooklyn (the two are very much linked despite what some claim), although I wouldn't be surprised if Brooklyn prices fare better than Manhattan prices.

I just invested $13,000 in an S&P 500 index fund, priced as of the close of market today.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 4:33 PM in response to SELL vs RENT?

Wasder, I would respond that (1) it really depends on what kind of property you are talking about and (2) the more local my view, the less scientific. I feel very confident about my predictions when I can address Manhattan as a whole, or even NYC as a whole, but when it comes to guessing what might happen to, say, Boerum Hill, or Fort Greene within a block of Dekalb, I'm basically guessing as to how these neighborhoods will track the broader trend (the broader trend being what I am comfortable predicting). Having said all of that, I think I can say the following with respect to brownstone Brooklyn:

1. People who have purchased new condos (whether new developments or conversions) in the past year or two stand to lose the most.

2. People who have bought single family residences of whatever kind (brownstones or houses) will do just fine if they didn't buy a "triple mint recent reno" job and put some of their own sweat equity into it.

3. People who did buy someone else's "triple mint" reno job and paid for it will have a lot of difficulty getting that value back out over the coming years, but won't do as badly as poeple who have bought new or converted condos.

4. The Slope will lose value, but not as much as Prospect Heights or Fort Greene. I have no idea what will happen to other neighborhoods.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 3:50 PM in response to SELL vs RENT?

Duly noted. I can't force them to list as a 2-bedroom, even if I can't see any civilized way to use that room as a bedroom (and I note that pic #6 is the room we are talking about - clearly the seller doesn't use it as a bedroom either). You are right at the end of the day my gripe is really with price. They can call this a 3-bedroom all they want, and I can't force them to do otherwise. But they should price it as a 2-bedroom with a living room and a small separate dining room, which is what I think it really is. This place is worth $750,000 (and, as of the past few days, falling).

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 2:26 PM in response to NOT A THREE BEDROOM

I'm not very focused on the stock market, which I think has much less relevance than it used to. The credit markets, which in my view are much, much more important, are in complete meltdown.

Everything will be fine. Eventually. But right now I am surrounded by a lot of senior veterans of a lot of Wall Street crashes and they are shell shocked by what is happening. And I tend to deal with people at a pretty high level. The general consensus is that this storm will have a few more big hits before it passes. I really can't underestimate the effect all of this is going to have in NYC. I am throwing away all of my predictions about the direction of NYC real estate (which is my pet topic for various reasons) and replacing them with much gloomier ones.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 2:22 PM in response to SELL vs RENT?

arches, if you genuinely believe that you need to go to an open house at this place and report back. Consider someone actually sleeping in this room while normal human interaction goes on in the living room and the kitchen. I swear on all that is or may some day be holy, this is not a bedroom.

Posted by: lechacal at September 17, 2008 1:47 PM in response to NOT A THREE BEDROOM

Hey man, go for it.

Speaking of The What, I have to say it's a little eerie how accurate his doomsday clock has turned out to be. The destruction of wealth and income in NYC over the past week has been staggering. And from where I sit (on the inside of a lot of what's going on) I can tell you it's not over. Even without assuming a complete meltdown of the finance industry I used to feel pretty confident about my predictions. Now I just feel genuinely sorr