BTW Crime is not surging at all - it might in the future - no one knows actually - but currently crime is more or less flat, on track to have 520 Homicides - while up 6% from last year, down from 2006 and one of the lowest ever - other crimes down from last year.

Posted by: fsrg at November 21, 2008 10:20 AM in response to Not Enough Cash for the HOD

Thank God someone had some sense, the idea of the city paying a HALF A BILLION DOLLARS to fix up a jail that heretofore wasnt even needed - was INSANE!
Now someone has to make the next intelligent decision - either open it soon as-is or sell the damn thing while it still has some decent value on the market. Warehousing empty jail space in your 3rd largest Downtown district makes no sense in a fiscal crisis.

Posted by: fsrg at November 21, 2008 10:17 AM in response to Not Enough Cash for the HOD

This will be hugely successful....As almost all national chains find (Target, Marriott, Lowes, Home Depot, Costco, Applebees, Ikea, etc....) Brooklyn is a vastly underserved market.
Despite the economy, a city of 2.5M can easily support 2 "authentic" steakhouses. Sure alot of people will be unemployed but there is still going to be lawyers, wiseguys, lottery winners, politicians, actors, athletes and plenty of others who want to go out for a Steak and cant get into Lugars and prefer to not go into Manhattan.

Posted by: fsrg at November 21, 2008 10:09 AM in response to Downtown Brooklyn Now Has a Morton's To Call Its Own

Deflation=lower rents too

Posted by: fsrg at November 20, 2008 11:59 AM in response to Price Cuts at the Satori

Come on 11217 be real - the 1st one while a bargin on many levels has 1 Bathroom and a tiny 3rdBR - how can you compare this to a suburban house???? and the second one is not in 321, costs 30% more then the 900k we were discussing, has a maintainance of 1400K a mo (hardly making up for the low taxes) and isnt even in 321.

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 6:08 PM in response to Life During Recession Time: Schools

Maybe a 2br - which is hardly family sized or comparable to a suburban house of any size - but please show me legitimate 3brs in PS321...not saying you wont be able to get one in the future - but not now (at least anything desirable) and when you will that suburban house will have fallen even more

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 5:19 PM in response to Life During Recession Time: Schools

bkny - not sure on your math - but even still - you'd be hard pressed to find a family sized apartment OR house zoned for a good/excellent public school in Brooklyn for 900K nad since you have to pay tuition for EACH child and property taxes for only one house - sorry suburbs are going to be cheaper then virtually anything comparable her in Brooklyn. Glad youre staying - but the economics favor the suburbs.

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 4:52 PM in response to Life During Recession Time: Schools

I am all for putting prisoners here - in fact stack them one on top of another for all I care BUT

I am adamantly opposed to spending another HALF A BILLION dollars on expanding the facility (after spending 70M only a few years ago - and then not using it) - there is no shortage of jail space currently so I fail to see why HALF A BILLION is needed. Not to mention that the geniuses didnt link the jail to the new courthouse so NO MATTER WHAT - prisoners still have to be bussed to Brooklyn Courtrooms.

Jail=sure BUT more $ for recently refurbished jail = NO F'ing WAY

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 4:43 PM in response to Saying No to House of D

11217 - sorry but I really do not think that population data from 100yrs ago and prior is at all relevant (the suburbs werent even truly developed back then) - unfortunately the period 1970-1980 are probably the nearest comparison - btw where do these stats come from anyway?

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 11:41 AM in response to Life During Recession Time: Schools

11217 - you better review your population stats again - we went through a very long period of declining population here in NYC - the increase only was in the last decade or so - and frankly since this coincided with an economic boom - not sure how relevant that is.

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 11:31 AM in response to Life During Recession Time: Schools

11217 - Easy - sell your house in NYC (at a 20% loss to last years high)- buy a bigger, more luxurious house in the suburbs that was always less than NYC and now down around 35-40%. Pay more in property tax, less in income tax and pocket the 100s of thousands of capital gains on the move.

Not saying its going to be a trend, BUT - historically upper middle class people who could not afford private school and who felt that they did not have a viable public school option did MOVE and it is certainly a likely scenario for some.

Posted by: fsrg at November 19, 2008 11:21 AM in response to Life During Recession Time: Schools

Bergen Paint and Tile closed this store awhile ago, and they own their properties so I do not think it was high rent. The farmingdale location is not new, it wasnt a move but a consolidation. They also owned property on 2nd St where they built The Heritage (and I am sure they retained a piece of that profit - or loss)

Posted by: fsrg at November 13, 2008 2:57 PM in response to Streetlevel: Bye-Bye Bergen Tile

BTW - to illustrate my point about the psychology within pricing even better - go back only a few months because I vividly recall arguing with some genius here that was saying oil would never again fall below $100 a barrel, that this time "was different"...guess what - oil is NOW at $57 a barrel and the "analysts" are fighting on who can lower their price targets quicker.

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 1:55 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Dow - you ignore the Florida RE boom of the late 70's early 80's.

wine lover - you ignore that the "demand" is based on perceptions - including perceptions of which way the housing market is going. i.e. people aint coming to buy if they think prices are falling.

Houses are not financial instruments, they have no inherent value besides the shelter they provide, they pay no dividend, and have no retained earnings. Once you get past a roof, running water, a kitchen and heat - the "value" of all the rest is purely what people value these extras (location, layout, finishes, etc...) at. Peoples desire (demand) is then mitigated by income and cost of capital.

In many places houses actually cost less than their replacement cost.

Ultimately wine lover the point is...."facts" play only a small roll in pricing.

One psychological "fact" that does play into all this however is that the psycology has historically worked the same in both directions - that is on the way up people convince themselves that "this time is different" and prices rise to unimaginable levels AND on the downside people convince themselves again that "this time is different" and prices fall to extremely low levels. And while both "levels" are correct for their time - so far (at least in the last 500yrs or so) this time is never that "different", so the trick is to avoid being burned by the swings in mass psycology so you can have a nice place to live - which is the point after all.

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 1:48 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Dow - 10yrs I agree might be a bit short - which is why I said "minimum"; but the mass psycology that creates these bubble/bursts, do seem to reset relatively quickly. It seems like when the 'leading generation' moves into retirement, the younger generations are able to then convince themselves that "this time is different" -
Granted this bubble was larger and bigger then many in the past but other huge speculative bubbles have returned in one lifetime (examples include - Florida RE, Stocks (a few times), Gold, and Oil to name a few).

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 12:44 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

THAL - since prices have appreciated far in excess of 100% over the last 5+yrs, please explain to me why it would be impossible for prices to decline 50%?

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 12:33 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Really Dave - why? - tell me - I guess I am dumb

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 11:32 AM in response to A Mediterranean Makover

No it isnt a buyers market - because most sellers havent come to appreciate what is going to happen yet.....and are therefore unwilling to sell at the 'true market' - which is down 20% at least from the high.

A real buyers market comes when sellers shift from resisting selling at a declined market price - because they believe a higher price will come sooner rather then latter to a situation where sellers are willing to take ANY market price because they believe that the future market price will likely be even lower.
Sellers in Brooklyn are still operating under the 1st premise....they are in for an awakening unless they are prepared to wait 10yrs minimum for prices to come back to anything like the recent past (just like what happened in '93-'03)

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 11:30 AM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Ok most people hate it (and its not my taste either) BUT the real question is WHY do you hate it - do you hate it b/c it doesnt "fit in" with the neighbors; do you hate it b/c it is just ugly (anywhere); do you hate it b/c of the color, etc.....

Personally I think it is fine - it isnt a historical area and while the design isnt all that great (anywhere) having every building be the "same" is kinda boring - but it might just "not fit in" a bit too much - especially for an otherwise mediocre design

Posted by: fsrg at November 12, 2008 11:22 AM in response to A Mediterranean Makover

"... i dont see how obama fixes up this economy"

Well he likely can't (which isnt necessarily his fault anyway) and certainly not quickly - but how about actually letting the guy get into office and proposing some real legislation before you declare him a failure - he is your president - and therefore criticizing him before he even does anything sounds like putting party ahead of country - not very patriotic if you ask me.

Posted by: fsrg at November 11, 2008 5:30 PM in response to Flying the Flag in the Slope

"He's too illiterate on economics to understand that by raising taxes on businesses and high earners to fund tax cuts for the masses, especially during a recession, he'll decimate the economy."

- you mean like during the Clinton years??

But either way - it still is an improvement since Bush is just completely "illiterate"

Posted by: fsrg at November 11, 2008 2:47 PM in response to Flying the Flag in the Slope

Ironballs - I guess the Obama honeymoon is over as far as your concerned!

Whatever happened to standing behind your president? isn't that patriotic anymore??? - I'm not talking about supporting policies you dont like or blindly pledging obedience - but the guy hasnt done or said virtually anything (has only said that he would consider a auto bailout with conditions) since being elected and you have already written off the next 4yrs. Way to give a guy a chance!

Posted by: fsrg at November 11, 2008 1:29 PM in response to Flying the Flag in the Slope

MM-."I will continue to insist that it is possible, I've seen it, to build new homes that are contextural, attractive, and affordable. Those criteria shouldn't have to be mutually exclusive."

Please cite where - I'm curious what you consider attractive and how you determined it to be well built.

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 2:46 PM in response to Horror Show Friday

it will nickel and dime the owner to death with cracks here and there, this falling off of that, etc, etc, etc.

Sounds like a Brownstone!

again, show me a development of similar housing stock where "crappy modern construction" expenses caused the unit prices to move proportionally lower (or rise significantly less) then the 'non-crappy' housing in its immediate vicinity.

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 12:57 PM in response to Horror Show Friday

MM - Since the past can sometimes predict the future.....please cite a SINGLE completed residential structure that "failed" within the last 50 years due to anything other than disaster (natural or otherwise), or horrific maintenance neglect......

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 12:44 PM in response to Horror Show Friday

"Should it be acceptable? Should we sit back and condone this?"

This is still (barely) a free country - I truly do not think it is the Government's role to legislate architectural designs. Zoning, setbacks, etc....fine but beyond preservation I do not think Gov't has a role here.

"We’ve taken a back seat to Europe, Asia and now the Middle East in building standards. Have you seen what was being built over there?"

Have you been to the places of which you speak (and I mean beyond the tourist areas)???

Western Europe's equivalent neighborhoods have an architecture only a Stalinist could love - (Brooklyn's Supreme Ct. building would be a masterpiece) - try seeing the outer areas of Paris, Rome, Florence, London, etc.....

and Asia and the ME generally do not even have equivalent neighborhoods - its either luxury or slum.

Again for 50K two of these buildings can be made pleasant- please get outraged over something important like war, poverty or strollers - mid-level housing with plain architecture is hardly an outrage.

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 12:37 PM in response to Horror Show Friday

I know I'll regret this but.....

Why would crime be any more "unreported" now vs. last year at this time (or any other period).

If anything you have to assume that crime is more under-reported during periods of high crime, since victims will likely figure that less can be done.

Therefore, even if you assume that NYPD crime stats are only 25% of the total number of crimes really taking place in each category - since there is no more incentive now to not-report or mis-label (by NYPD) crimes then at any other period during the last 15 years - their is ZERO evidence anywhere (and from any reliable source) that shows crime increasing - (albeit their has been a slight increase in homicides this year but still at amazingly low numbers - and its tough to fudge homicide statistics)

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 12:27 PM in response to Borough Hall Attack

MM - you know little about construction if you think that these buildings can not easily stand for 100 years or more. While Brownstones have their charm, the idea that a non-rehabbed brownstone isnt generally a money pit of leaks, utility bills (due to poor insulation and lousy systems), lousy plumbing and insufficient electric is just naive.

Brownstones are still standing, not because of any great construction but because they have been rehabilitated and maintained - not because they are inherently well built.

And assuming these houses receive even a modicum of maintenance and improvements they can stand indefinitely - and there are thousands of similar housing units built all over the city and surrounding burbs in the 1960's that are already almost 1/2 way there.

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 12:17 PM in response to Horror Show Friday

alsawo - "There have been a number of muggings around that area in the past few weeks too, and while I don't have the facts in front of me...."

Isnt that the point???? There are ALWAYS muggings and robberies....2.5M people live in Brooklyn....the only relevance is if they are in FACT happening more frequently - which you (or Brownstomner) apparently do not have the facts to support (and which the NYPD statistic seem to refute)

I am not saying that occasionally you don't have a crime of such violence or with an interesting storyline to make it noteworthy, but this post just appears to be motivated to introduce fear.

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 11:58 AM in response to Borough Hall Attack

"I hope what comes out of all this is for developers / architects / planners / designers / builders / contractors to realize that people aren’t going to settle for this kind of architecture; and that there is a more concentrated effort in pre-planning aesthetically viable structures that create a positive visual impact on a neighborhood."

Are you joking??? People will more then happily "settle" for this architecture - our city is filled with such utilitarian designs dating back to the 60's (have you been to Quees, So Brooklyn, and NE Bronx???) and even some older housing sock has been refurbished in a similar manner (Vinyl siding Williamsburg).

Besides sell me the two on the left for 300K (about 5x the potential RR) I'll put in another 50K (bigger windows on the one and some creative landscaping and woodwork on the other) and in 10 years they'll blend in so much no one will even have an opinion.

These properties arent selling (like all RE) because they are priced above the market (a market which puts little premium on aesthetics on a sq ft basis).

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 11:53 AM in response to Horror Show Friday

The reason they will or wont sell has little to do with their aesthetics and much more to do with their price and location. That being said - except for the one in Bushwick - I fail to see whats so horrible about the other two. The one in PLG is actually attractive, but for the utility meters - which can easily be hidden. And while the one in Bed Stuy has ridiculously small windows, it is otherwise fine.

Trust me in 100 years (assuming civilization survives) both the PLG and Bed Stuy house will be admired for their turn-of-the 21st century character. And before someone says it - yes they will all be standing in 100 years.
Just remember 100 years ago people mocked Brownstones as cookie-cutter mcmansions, lacking 'real' design and only for those with 'new money'

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 11:06 AM in response to Horror Show Friday

Why is this being reported like this??????

An assault (with injuries) is hardly a major incident, especially if no shooting was involved. Even in Brooklyn Heights assaults can happen. But by every measure crime is down to record levels in Brooklyn and yet lately even anecdotal crime reports are being highlighted here....hmmm what's the agenda????

Could it be that the local blogesphere wants to promote the notion that the downturn in the economy is leading to an increase in street crime (ala 1970's???).

While everyone has their own "Warriors" fantasy ["You see what you get when you mess with the Orphans, you see what you get!!!!"]

it would be nice if your reporting actually reflected reality, rather then trying to prove some impossibly simplistic theory last seriously taught in the late 80's in liberal arts colleges across America (ie. poverty=crime).

If you want to report on crime - how about including some facts and statistics????

Posted by: fsrg at November 7, 2008 10:54 AM in response to Borough Hall Attack

Shahn - no one asked you to comment about your variance - nor does the BSA rules (including the ones you posted) preclude you from discussing the status of the project (or the variance itself for that matter).

As to what I am talking about is that despite your insistence to the contrary - developing projects in NYC is infinitely complicated and extremly risky with a large potential for downside - and while including a good architectural design can be profitable, it is not necessarily so, nor is it necessarily consistent with keeping sales prices low.

But the issue is that you posted countless and arrogantly on all your experience and how developers (with the help of the city and buyers) were essentially a bunch of slime out to make a few extra pennies when according to you - beautiful architecture, community elements (and other feel good stuff) were so easily added (or preserved). Then you spent months proclaiming how crazy the DOB was for giving the owner of Broken Angel a hard time for having a death trap on top of his building.

So here we are 2 years and a bursted bubble later and you don't even have a variance yet. Therefore under virtually any scenario (excpet maybe another 100% bubble RE reforming) you can NOT make money on this project (how much have you lost already by simply tying up your $, RE taxes, etc...?) - and yet you say NOTHING has happened to change your mind about development - are you related George W. Bush?

Posted by: fsrg at November 6, 2008 11:03 AM in response to Thursday Links

Come on Shahn - just admit failure - The BSA doesnt have a "quiet period" and you can say whatever you want - besides you have been working on this for 2 years and you dont even have the go ahead yet - there is no denying you are losing money hand over fist.

Now I normally wouldnt gloat on someone elses failure but despite being humbled of late (and therefore quiet) - I have not forgotten all you past arrogance, proclaiming the city, developers and condo buyers all a bunch of cheap heathens who could EASILY develop contextual (i.e. low), architecturally significant developments with minimal effort and virtually no loss in profit.

While I am glad your experience with the real world has caused you to STFU, it wouldnt kill you to admit that you were wrong and things that seem so easy to type on a blog comment board are much more complicated to execute in the real world.

Posted by: fsrg at November 6, 2008 10:13 AM in response to Thursday Links

Oh Bankers how dumb are thee.....

Spend hundreds of millions successfully building a brand, then spend billions more buying up that brand, then smartly decide to retain the brand due to it being wildly recognized and successful. Then (due to a small trademark dispute), decide to drop the name and replace it with a virtually unknown name, with no advertising or public roll out or explanation - just at the time that bank failure (and therefore brand confidence is paramount) is a real concern to bank customers....Brilliant

Posted by: fsrg at November 6, 2008 10:04 AM in response to Changing of the Banking Guard on Montague

Although there were some amazing lines (like the one directed towards those that didnt vote for him) - I actually thought his speech was one of his weaker ones (still far better then just about anyone else though) - too much 'thanking' and the whole 'yes we can' tag line section seemed disjointed. However given that he just finished the longest marathon in the history of man - it is understandable.

Overall I am happiest for the country - the 1st black president is of course wonderful - but ultimately the part that is the best - is that our democracy works (thank god) - no matter what you political persuasion, you have to recognize that after 8 yrs with a horrendous president (on virtually all measures) it is only appropriate (and in many ways necessary) that the country change directions. The fact that we as a nation did this - bodes well for the vibrancy of our democracy.

Posted by: fsrg at November 5, 2008 1:57 PM in response to If There Is Anyone Out There...

You people are very impatient - as BH76 said - these things take decades to be fully realized.

The current buildings will beget residence who demand improvements - like landscaping - which will go a long long way to making 4th Avenue (And its current buildings) far more attractive and livable. As the foot traffic increases - retail will come in - (where else will you be able to get large contiguous space, near the subway and car traffic in Brownstone Brooklyn).
The retail and increased foot traffic will get more building in the next cycle and then the varied (and yes some ugly) architecture will look a lot nice and more interesting and finally end in 4th Ave being an appreciated (if not exactly coveted) address.

I do believe however the current developers did themselves a financial disservice by not putting in Retail right away.

Posted by: fsrg at November 5, 2008 1:47 PM in response to Fourth Avenue: Gentrification or Ghettoization?

Efflorescence can be a sign of poor construction/lousy materials BUT can also occur when the brick has been exposed to water PRIOR to being installed and therefore is quite common in much new construction (including well built) - however if the condition persists (few years) then it is likely a symptom of a larger problem.

Posted by: fsrg at October 30, 2008 1:03 PM in response to Two Units Left at 364 St. Marks

We're talking the 1990s, not the 1890s. I'm sure a rather large percentage of us are still alive.

-and what of all the people that reached voting age, who moved here, who became citizens over the last 15 years.

Think about this - how would you feel if the 1993 referendum instituted term-limits AND made a "term" 30 years - would you still be arguing that this 15 year old vote should be so honored - as Rudy Guliani would only be half way into his 1st term

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 5:20 PM in response to Tish and BdB Suing Over Term Limits

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 24, 2008 5:03 PM

Mayoral Control of the schools - Which has achieved what specifically?

Impressive increases in student test scores - against the prevailing trends that existed here and continue in other municipalities

massive crime reduction - Sadly, we have to thank Rudy for that.

No - you have to credit Bloomberg with the ADDITIONAL crime reduction - especially give 9/11.

2nd Ave subway construction - Which will probably stop again any day now. The money would probably have been better spent on improving the existing lines.

So what (and likely not true) - it is funded and in progress under Bloomberg - he gets credit until other facts develop.

massive increase in number of available housing units - With no corresponding increase in schools or other infrastructure.

Not true - school construction has enjoyed increased funding under Bloomberg and again so what - it is an accomplishment no matter.

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 5:15 PM in response to Tish and BdB Suing Over Term Limits

ENY - of course term-limits are anti-democratic - if you can not see this basic reality then you are blind.

Yes a referendum might be better - BUT - remember the people who voted in the 90's are not today's electorate; and a special election (necessary now) would have little turnout.

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 5:08 PM in response to Tish and BdB Suing Over Term Limits

Slopenik:

Mayoral Control of the schools, massive crime reduction, lower debt burden for NYC, 3-1-1, 2nd Ave subway construction, massive increase in number of available housing units, shall I go on????

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 4:56 PM in response to Tish and BdB Suing Over Term Limits

slopenik - you're Guiliani example is not relevant. Rudy did not want to run again, he wanted to extend his term - with NO ELECTION for 3 mo. That is entirely different.

Again - is it unseemly - probably - but:

why should the electorate of the 90's (many of whom are dead or moved) dictate the electoral choices of today's electorate (which includes many new members). And while a referendum today might be a less obnoxious way of dealing with this - it isnt practical to keep having referendums, the referendums are corrupted by $ and extremely low turnout (as was the Billionaire sponsored '93 and '96 referendums).

So my point is - yes this action is self-dealing - but it is no more anti-democratic then the term-limit referendums were in the 1st place. Elections should decide who is in office not legal processes instituted by people long ago.

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 4:52 PM in response to Tish and BdB Suing Over Term Limits

Landmark does not equal - a very nice old building

Landmark means possessing special architectural, historical or cultural value. While it might be a nice building there is nothing about it that makes it architecturally, historically or culturally special (or unique).

Certainly there was a much greater case that the EDS building (2 CC) was architecturally (and potentially culturally) unique.

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 3:46 PM in response to Ward's Bakery, Not 2 Columbus Circle, the Real Loss

Please stop with this anti-democracy nonsense......

Why should we hold the popular vote of a decade+ old electorate as sacrosanct, when the nature of the vote itself state - that the popular will of people (in the future) should be ignored and instead replaced with a legal process (term limits)

IOW - Why should the people voting today have their choices limited by voters in the past and 2. If the voters in the past didnt think the electorate was so smart (i.e. unable to vote out the incumbents) why should we hold their (historical) desires as so binding?

I am not saying there is nothing ethically ambiguous about the TL extension; but these calls saying it is the end of democracy are so so over the top.

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 3:36 PM in response to Tish and BdB Suing Over Term Limits

"The demise of manufacturing in the city is historical, long-standing and probably irreversible...."

True but here is the problem when talking about the Gowanus areas - the costs associated with making this area livable for people will likely not be fully bore by the developers (see how Toll isnt expected to clean the canal for example) - therefore while the ROI for residential may seem exponentially higher then for (light) manufacturing/distribution - the real costs for residential conversion are expected to be subsidized by government and insurance (flood, liability, etc...)

While this subsidy might make sense in a situation where the area was truly "dead" like Polemicist states - the reality is that this area is far from dead and has/had a very active light manufacturing/distribution business. The reality is that any disuse of property in the area is generally due to LL waiting to see if they can use their property for the more lucrative SUBSIDIZED residential development.

In order to make a valid determination if the change is economically beneficial, you have to add in the 'hidden' costs which may include public funds for cleanup and pollution remediation, infrastructure upgrades, and additional costs/risks (spread to all) due to flood risk. Finally it would likely be fairer if you could calculate the monetary and environmental cost (if any) resulting from the displacement of these light manufacturing/distribution businesses to outside the center city. (one simple example is the added expense of moving the concrete factory further away from Downtown Manhattan (where it is used).

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 12:01 PM in response to CB6 Okays Toll Brothers' Spot Rezoning

Never going to happen......

Posted by: fsrg at October 24, 2008 10:24 AM in response to CB6 Okays Toll Brothers' Spot Rezoning

Never going to happen....the location is simply too difficult to build on profitably

Posted by: fsrg at October 23, 2008 2:11 PM in response to Whole Foods Can't Do It Alone (In Gowanus)

I kinda thought (hoped) that Obamas agenda was to bring "reason" back into Government and move away from the dogma and incompetence we have been enjoying

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 4:46 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

Dave - with Direct TV (Sat) and (soon) FIOS, Time Warner Cable is hardly a monopoly anymore. nor are the other retailers I mentioned - and I will add that virtually every Insurance Co (Health) is a private enterprise as well - and all of the above seems worse run then virtually every Govt agency I have dealt with. Just sayin....

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 4:35 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

Ironballs - I didnt ask you if you thought McCain would die - I just asked you what would happen to your (moderate republican) analysis if Palin became president - certainly you must consider the POSSIBILITY that the guy could die or become disabled as President (BTW - his father died at 70 and his Grandfather at 61)

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 4:31 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

"When's the last time you walked into a government agency like the Department of Buildings that wasn't the most mismanaged wasteful circus you ever saw?"

The most wasteful mismanaged circus I have ever seen is at the Time Warner 'Customer Service' Center in Brooklyn - compared to that PRIVATE ENTERPRISE, most Government agencies work like a well-oiled machine.

On a related note - arent Rite Aid, Circuit City, and Macys (brooklyn) - private enterprises as well?????

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 4:18 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

no ditto I am not "hung-up" on a single definition of "redistribution", since that is the only definition. I am hung-up on how we as a nation can support an $11 Trillion dollar debt, $500+ Billion dollar deficit, 2 wars and a rapidly aging population.

Based on these issues, which have no immediate chance of being rectified, I am willing to pay more taxes - but if my $ was simply being used (more than it is) to give out to others - (i.e. redistributed) then I wouldn't.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 4:07 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

dittoburg - wealth redistribution generally refers to taking $ from one group and DISTRIBUTING it to another...what you describe is simply variable tax rates.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 3:45 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

CMU - other than taxes what on earth does you country/community ask you to do?
I may not want you on a jury (and so you'll be released after 1 or 2 days) but you being eligible allows for a broader pool (and potentially better jury)

Further I never said that you wouldnt get a 'fair trial"; I am just saying that if everyone had your attitude (and unfortunately too many do) the trier of fact in your potential case will likely be dumber, less interested and likely more biased. Not only will that stink if you were a crime victim, but it will suck even more if your business needs to settle a dispute in court, especially if the case requires some brain power to figure out.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 3:41 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

City/State taxes are (sort of-AMT and all) deductible - so that offsets some of the increase and we already have the highest marginal tax rate - so whats the difference.

The point is simple - unless someone proposes to 1. drastically reduce the military and end both wars or 2. Drastiaclly cut back on Social Security and Medicare benefits (or age eligibility) - taxes are not going to be lowered and SOMEONE has to pay. - 71% of the budget is Defense, SS/Medicare and interest.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 3:34 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

ditto - no I asked it. Where is the redistribution part of Obama's tax plan that old Ironballs is referring. I see the increased collection part, just not any additional redistribution, but maybe I missed it.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 3:28 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

Balls - how does your 3:14pm analysis hold up if McCain doesnt make it through his term (death or disability) and Palin becomes president?

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 3:25 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

billyboomer - I'm voting for Obama so you can f-off yourself - but......

the increased tax liability is likely to be much higher - more like $15,000 on my 300,000 salary b/c (while unclear) it does appear that Obama supports lifting the salary cap on Social Security Taxes (6.2%)

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 3:22 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

Snark - thanks for your well reasoned, detailed and informative answer

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 2:45 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

I know I shouldn't but...

Ironballs (ignoring Obama's word choice for a sec) - can you tell me what about allowing (non-rich) people to keep more of the money they earn while asking (rich) people to contribute more of the money they earn is "spreading the wealth"?

Progressive taxation=yes
Redistribution= please explain?

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 2:44 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

snark - don't you think it is a bit ironic (if not hypocritical) to argue against overturning term-limit restrictions on the grounds that such action would be against the democratic choice of (a past) electorate - when the measure being overturned is one that essentially limits democratic choice in the 1st place?

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 2:40 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

cmu - please be sure to save your 12:51 post to read in the future, especially if you should find yourself a$$ raped and then testifying against your attacker in front a jury of uneducated, disinterested ne'er-do-wells because all the qualified citizens felt that a few days (the majority of cases) every 6 YEARS was too much of a self-sacrifice to maintain a civil society

- OH and ditto the above if one day you as a self-employed person finds the need to avail yourself of our civil justice system because someone won't pay, discriminated against you, broke a contract or simply runs you over with their car and you can no longer work.....

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 1:08 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

oh also people who cant spell

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 12:26 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

what else would constitute a "douche?"

Lots of things but off the top of my head....

Adults who buy clothes and accessories as a reflection their politics - i.e. the Birkenstock wearing, Saab SUV driving schmucks

People who stop a cab on a one-way street and only THEN start looking for their money (and backup traffic) as thought they didnt notice the large meter telling them WELL IN ADVANCE how much cash they will need to pay.

People who make up lame excuses (as thought they are so busy) to get out of the SINGLE civic duty our country asks you to perform - jury duty

I can think of many more but that should get you started.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 12:24 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

I'm not obsessed with signs - I just think that people who put these political signs up are douches......

Just like I do not care (as I walk down your block or drive behind you) what your political views are....why do you care what I think of your signs?

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 12:09 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

SnarkSlope - yeah I guess another referendum would be 'better' process - but since it would have to be a special election and very few would vote, I'm not sure that it would be that much more 'legitimate' anyway.

I do find it interesting that people supporting NYC term limits seem to feel that the peoples choice (vote) is so sacrosanct, when you consider that the vote in question is one designed to REPLACE voting (choice) with a legal processes.....

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 12:06 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

daveinbedstuy - who CARES who you support - I didnt ask and I dont care and why are you so intent on telling everyone????

Do you also have a "I Support the Troops" metallic ribbon on your car? or a "Give Peace a Chance" bumper sticker?

These 'signs' are totally empty gestures that DO NOTHING and simply are a cry for attention by the idiots who engage in them. Instead of wasting your time with signs - try voting, paying your taxes, sitting for jury duty and quietly give to a worthwhile charity.

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 12:00 PM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

snarkslope - Who is "we"??

why should the voters of a previous generation determine who may run for office in later generations?

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 11:53 AM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

"FSRQ, I'm one of those douches you speak of. I don't advertise my political views because I think I'm going to sway opinion. I do it to stick it to the right." - rh

Doesn't that explanation make you a douche?????

and that ignores the fact that generally in places like NYC, your sign simply leads any thinking right-leaning person to conclude you are a moronic sheep who likes to engage in empty gestures (i.e. you are sticking it to no one).

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 11:46 AM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

I do not get the anti-tax/anti-Govt crowd this time around.

Of course I do not want to pay more in taxes (and I will) and of course we have to try to arrange the tax burden in such a way as to limit its anti-growth effects as much as possible but we are FIGHTING TWO WARS and are trying to SAVE THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. These things cost money and since all these expensive projects are designed to 'save' our society, those that benefit the most from our society have to (and have the most incentive to ) pay. Its simple.

Think about an extreme example - if our society truly collapsed - alot of rich guys would be kicked out of their homes and have their wives taken by some uneducated violent monster under the threat (or use)of force;

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 11:37 AM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

People who put political signs on their lawns, doors, cars, windows, etc... are douches

Do you think that people are going to vote for your candidate because you have a sign on your car?

Posted by: fsrg at October 22, 2008 9:37 AM in response to A McCain Outpost in Blue Park Slope

Oh yeah really moving along.....at this rate 2011 should be a safe move-in date.

Posted by: fsrg at October 21, 2008 11:26 AM in response to Checking In On 166 Montague Street

Whats the big deal - the old house was setback, ugly and had horrible stairs - and now the new house is attractive, setback and has even uglier stairs - seems to me it is ultimately a 'dime or 10 pennies'

Posted by: fsrg at October 16, 2008 11:23 AM in response to The Charming Paint Peeler Reincarnated

Btw - notwithstanding the very hot chair - since when did clutter count for design - the inside looks like it was designed by the Collyer Brothers and the outside is totally stark and uncomfortable and actually looks horrible for entertaining -

Posted by: fsrg at October 15, 2008 11:28 AM in response to NY Mag Tackles Home Design

Love that hanging chair - saw it in a movie once around 1979......

Posted by: fsrg at October 15, 2008 11:24 AM in response to NY Mag Tackles Home Design

Polemicist - the reason people moved to the cities was a massive farm crisis (dust bowl) - I do not know that is going to be happening again - I also pray that we do not see the deflation that the depression saw.

Additionally, the majority of Bronx developers/ll who built during the early 30's - went bankrupt - look it up = fact

I will be bullish on rental housing when 1. It can be shown that the NYC economy can support 8m people with a depressed Wall St and 2. When rental housing can be bought or built at a price that is sustainable by realistic and sustainable rent rolls

Posted by: fsrg at October 14, 2008 1:38 PM in response to 111 Lawrence Rising

Walking around NYC, I always wondered who built ___X_____ building in 1931,2,3 during the height of the depression. Looks like another generation 75yrs from now will be wondering the same thing about todays buildings.

Posted by: fsrg at October 14, 2008 12:17 PM in response to 111 Lawrence Rising

sebb you are in a fantasy - prices have already dropped over 10% and the true effect of the market chaos hasnt even begun to be felt.

NYC is essentially a 2 industry town - Wall St and Media - and one of those industries has been decimated -

the idea that nyc RE will only be minimally effected is naive to say the least.

Posted by: fsrg at October 13, 2008 12:23 PM in response to Dead Cat Bounce or the Bottom?

Fools rally at this point - Treasury plan is all over the place, no one knows exactly what will be and unintended consequences not even being contemplated (sort of like how Freddie and Fannie were forced into receivership by dumb treasury plan).

Market is rallying because now the whole world is looking to reinflate banks/markets - but the devil is ultimately in the details - of which no one has a clue. Expect uncertainty to creep back in and wipe away most gains at this point.

Posted by: fsrg at October 13, 2008 11:34 AM in response to Dead Cat Bounce or the Bottom?

This is pure panic selling and mass redemptions - it has ZERO to do with such reasoned analysis as to what an Obama administration will look like next year.

Frankly you can just as easily say that the sell-off reflects the fear of what will happen in this country if the "Bradley effect" makes McCain president. - of course that is as speculative and baseless and Ironballs post.

Posted by: fsrg at October 10, 2008 2:16 PM in response to Dow Status Check

Benson you may be right but expect a dividend cut - you aint collecting 6% if things do not dramatically change

Posted by: fsrg at October 10, 2008 10:58 AM in response to Dow Status Check

So sadly funny - as Bush talks it seems to cause market to fall

Posted by: fsrg at October 10, 2008 10:28 AM in response to Dow Status Check

Bankers are such sheep.....

The issue isnt how much you lend, its who you lend to and what you lend against......

Stupid on the way up and stupid on the way down.....its always the same.

Posted by: fsrg at October 10, 2008 10:24 AM in response to Banks Putting the Squeeze on Jumbo Loan Borrowers

of course a location can be cursed - in the sense that...due to things like traffic patterns, visibility, layout, and tons of other intangible factors...it doesnt work for a restaurant, or whatever.
Many times this can be overcome with amazing food, redesign, luck or a change in the outside factors but sometimes not.

I dont think anyone is using the term 'cursed; to indicate a mythical force preventing a restaurant from surviving - just that the location seems much more difficult than most to sustain a restaurant.

Posted by: fsrg at October 8, 2008 4:01 PM in response to BBQ Extinguished at Lookout Hill

How about a Asian Massage place - we need that!

Posted by: fsrg at October 8, 2008 3:46 PM in response to BBQ Extinguished at Lookout Hill

I suspect the quality isnt too great but Balluchi's is opening at 5th and 2nd - so I dont think we'd get another Indian restaurant.

Posted by: fsrg at October 8, 2008 3:02 PM in response to BBQ Extinguished at Lookout Hill

over there - 5th ave needs a large drug store, a fish monger, a good florist, a dry cleaner (yes I know hat spot was once a dry cleaner - so what), or a pizza parlor (slices)

Posted by: fsrg at October 8, 2008 2:50 PM in response to BBQ Extinguished at Lookout Hill

Food was horrible and the location is cursed - open a fish store and be done with it.

Posted by: fsrg at October 8, 2008 2:11 PM in response to BBQ Extinguished at Lookout Hill

Problem with these articles is they are purely anecdotal - small store owners almost always complain that business stinks (at worst it helps negotiating a new lease). And some stores do lousy business because the store (and not the economy) stinks.

It would be much more interesting (and informative) if these articles were based on sales tax receipts - guess that FOIA request would be too much work for a journalist.

Posted by: fsrg at October 7, 2008 1:16 PM in response to Brooklyn's Main Streets Feel the Pain

This is why you generally have to decide if you want to buy (vs rent) figuring in ZERO price appreciation at the eventual sale.
No one (ever) knows what is going to happen and therefore it is intellegent to determine if buying makes sense on a cash flow basis (not based on SPECULATIVE capital gains).

Now given the cycle your in, I'd figure a price depreciation over the near term 1-5yrs (certainly a safer assumption than figuring a price appreciation) - so if your going to be in the place less than 5yrs you have to sit down and make a prediction (guess) on how much the place is going to fall in value - use 'early 90's data (the closest analogy in NYC) -if you predict the value is going to fall by less than 32G than you should go through with it, if you predict the value will fall by more then you have to determine how much "psychic" benefit you will get from living there. If it doesnt exceed your predicted loss then leave your deposit on the table.

Two other things 1. Your (rational) guess as to price movements is probably as good as anyones - no one has an f'in clue no matter what they say. 2. Once you decide - enjoy where ever you live and dont spend time researching your decision to see if you would have 'made money' the other way - a home is a place to live - NOT AN INVESTMENT

Posted by: fsrg at October 7, 2008 1:03 PM in response to Front Page Forum: Walk Away from Downpayment?

Looks lame?
Overpriced?

Is there anything that the people on Brownstoner wont complain about? apparently not.

A (local) business, upgrades the look of his restaurant (and basically keeps prices the same btw), and makes it more pedestrian friendly (opening it up to the street)

and all the curmudgeons here can do is complain about the name and non-existent price increases.

Let me predict a possible future.....annoying brownstoners boycott the place because it looks too clean and shiny and doesnt 'respect' its gowanus location and the other long time patrons, feel uncomfortable by the new decor and decamp to another dingy diner on 3rd ave. Place goes out of business....3mo later - amazing corner location attracts Dunkin Donuts .... Brownstoners complain of suburbanization and demand that a local merchant/restaurateur open up!

Lets hope that motel guests in gowanus and more rationale thinking people ignore the stupid views reflected here.

Posted by: fsrg at October 7, 2008 12:48 PM in response to New Look and Name for New College Restaurant

I cant get the Buffet interview to play, but no matter - just look at Japan and the US during the Great Depression - DEFLATION not inflation was the issueand you will be hearing much more about it as the economy slows.

Just check out oil - its already flirting to go below $90.

I expect will see below $75 a barrel by the end of the year unless we have unusual weather.

Posted by: fsrg at October 2, 2008 3:15 PM in response to Buyers Cooling to Brooklyn

Boerum Hill I agree but also back then those areas (7th, Montague, etc) were essentially islands; it wasnt that 5th Ave wasnt gentrified - it was that it was unsafe to be there (and b4 all the posts start - I am talking about relative safety). The same for many neighborhoods in NYC (inc in Manhattan) - neighborhoods had definitive lines that you were reluctant to cross - now areas blend much more together and there isnt so much of a dividing lines between nice areas and 'no mans land'

Posted by: fsrg at October 2, 2008 2:17 PM in response to Brooklyn Manhattan's St. Paul, Not Compton

Well maybe not - its a small photo but if she lost the ridiculous hat and turned back the hands of time 20 years - it looks like she could have "worked that angle"

Posted by: fsrg at October 2, 2008 2:11 PM in response to Inside Third & Bond: Week 56

Why do I get the feeling that back in 1984 she was the " woman with cleavage and a short skirt"

Posted by: fsrg at October 2, 2008 1:37 PM in response to Inside Third & Bond: Week 56

I'd love to see that quote - got a cite -

and while you can certainly take Buffet's word over mine - you find virtually no economists who believe that we are facing inflation and certainly not inflation in HOUSING

Yes the Govt will be printing money like crazy but it wont cause inflation until businesses regain pricing power, which will not occur until their is some economic recovery - and that is looking fairly far into the future...then you're right we may face tons of inflation - but again not likely for even longer in housing.

Posted by: fsrg at October 2, 2008 11:19 AM in response to Buyers Cooling to Brooklyn

sam - I think you got it backwards - we are experiencing massive de-leveraging, and are facing a tremendous recession if not depression - the issue is DE-flation, not inflation.

Posted by: fsrg at October 2, 2008 10:31 AM in response to Buyers Cooling to Brooklyn

How can the city justify almost a HALF A BILLION DOLLARS to "fix" a totally unused and recently rebuilt facility!!!

With the interest on this $440M (22M @ 5%) you could practically pay every violent felon in this city $1000 a year to simply move to New Jersey.

THIS IS INSANE

Posted by: fsrg at October 1, 2008 4:44 PM in response to Plans for HOD Go Forward

Polemicist...come on you are sounding like "The What" now....I agree that the U.S. is in for some bad times (frankly since the U.S. is the 'housing market' that the rest of the world is leveraged on...they're screwed too)

but we have a 14Trillion dollar a year GDP - which over 20% is pure industrial production, we are the 3rd largest producer of oil in the world (9M barrels a day!); we are the 2nd largest producer of natural gas in the world; we are one of the worlds largest producers of agricultural products; we export approximately 1.1 Trillion dollars of goods annually, we have a growing (mostly) literate population and one of the most advanced infrastructures in the world.

In the worst worst worst case scenario absent total war or horrific natural disaster, this country could (but unlikely) have brief periods of economic chaos (as in CC stop working, bank failures, riots, etc...) and even more persistent periods of relative deprivation (as in gas/electric shortages, reduced health care, etc...) but the idea that the U.S. is totally bankrupt, and will have to resort to a barter economy is loony, in fact the idea that the U.S. will cease to be one of the most powerful economies on earth in any of our lifetimes is almost laughable.

Posted by: fsrg at October 1, 2008 4:34 PM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

When we can no longer afford or are able borrow to buy oil - the price of oil will easily fall back to its 1998 level.....$11 a barrel

as for billyboomer - you might not lower your price but if you have to move you will and if your smart you want to lower your price and sell now, rather then waiting till you find yourself dumping along with everyone else who thought prices couldnt fall so much

Posted by: fsrg at October 1, 2008 3:35 PM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

I am totally in favor of the BHOD re-opening, makes total sense and I never understood why it was closed BUT

I AM TOTALLY APPALLED

that they are going to sink almost HALF A BILLION DOLLARS to do this. (and thats the budget - you know its going to be closer to 1B) - and thats after they sank SIXTY MILLION in 2003 - and then didnt even use it.

It is an absolute disgrace, if it costs that much to fix the existing site - then build the damn thing over by the MDCC or on Rikers Island with other such facilities.

And please dont tell me that it is to save transport money because with the interest on just 10% of the budgect you could afford to transport each prisoner to court by limousine.
Besides the new courthouse isnt even connected to this facility so prisoners WILL STILL HAVE TO BE BUSSED.

This is corruption of the worst kind - I guarantee wholesale graft worse than the School Construction Authority.

I can't even believe that someone even has the balls to suggest sinking 1/2 a billion dollars into this.....

Posted by: fsrg at October 1, 2008 3:15 PM in response to Plans for HOD Go Forward

The bubble may have popped but the deflation hasn't even started.

Most of almost any market is psychology, and it is bad and going to get worse. And guess what it really wont matter all that much if you are in a "crappy" new condo; a "fancy" old Coop, or a beautifully restored Victorian brownstone - all are in the same market, all are affected by the same psychology , all have suffered price appreciation totally unjustified by sustainable economic conditions and ALL are coming way way down.

Trust me in 18mo->2yrs very few people will be criticizing renters for "throwing their money away"

It is entirely likely that NYC will will the same price deprecations as felt in places like Fla and CA - yes NYC has a much more "limited" supply and more inherent demand but NYC has also just lost its major industry for the foreseeable future.

Posted by: fsrg at October 1, 2008 3:03 PM in response to Has the Bubble Finally Burst?

Johnny, your tax dollars haven't paid for one cent of the parcel (certainly no yet) and despite the comments by Shahn @1:17 - the millions of people who would be effected by the plan have been heard from through their representatives - since your representatives are the numerous executive and legislative bodies that approved it - as well as the judicial officers appointed by the same.

Not one single politician has been elected or unelected on a platform consistent with opposition to AY.

As to the $2B subsidy to Ratner - this is another lie - over 2/3 of that 'subsidy' was tax abatement for taxes that otherwise would have been paid on the AY development - guess what - there is no AY development and so for approx 1.5B - having or not having AY has ZERO effect on State or local budgets or deficits - cause empty land and pits don't generate taxes.

Again - you won - congrats - enjoy your hole.

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 1:39 PM in response to Atlantic Yards Suffers a Setback

Shahn - who are you kidding - your Broken Angel completion party won't be happening for years, and when and if it does (and you still are involved) - it will be a total money loser and other than not tearing down the entire shell - will be indistinguishable from any other condo project in this city; despite all your pontificating about preservation, community, and partnering with the resident 'artist'.

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 1:32 PM in response to Atlantic Yards Suffers a Setback

MM- smaller developers, nor is the Government able to afford or justify to pay for the $300M cover so that any developer could build anything there - nor is a site adjacent to the largest transportation hub (by lines) in the country appropriate for 'small scale' development - no matter how much the people who live next door to the site may want that to be the reality

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 1:22 PM in response to Atlantic Yards Suffers a Setback

Bxgrl - you act as though 'the community' has a singular vision for what should have been built at AY - or (and maybe more importantly) what is APPROPRIATE for the site.
While what's best for YOU certainly is a consideration, it should be a tiny one when you consider that YOU don't own the site, have never owned the site and that what gets develops effects MILLIONS of people in the Boro, City and Region.

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 1:06 PM in response to Atlantic Yards Suffers a Setback

Shahn could you please STFU - you will be dead before any development takes place at AY site; and other than being another member of the annoying NIMBY crowd you input will be meaningless, because you know nothing about real estate or development as your failed Broken Angel project demonstrates.

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 12:33 PM in response to Atlantic Yards Suffers a Setback

Congratulations NIMBY's you "won" - no way AY gets done in this generation....
Hope you enjoy the eyesore - because you'll be looking at it for at least a decade or two more.

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 11:38 AM in response to Atlantic Yards Suffers a Setback

Wow!!! who predicted this 2 YEARS ago....why it was ME!

Posted by: fsrg at September 29, 2008 11:35 AM in response to Curtains for Whole Foods?

Have no fear Joe Sitt nor anyone else will be getting funding for a project like this...

Posted by: fsrg at September 26, 2008 12:40 PM in response to Not Just BJs for Red Hook, But a Whole Mall

setancre - the likely reason that Hedge Funds and Private Equity are not buying - has little to do with a limited prospect to make money. The reason is that the potential return is too small to justify the capital commitment. In the past private $ would increase the potential return through borrowing - but alas that is no longer possible.

Money can be made on these assets but only the Governemtn could possibly have the capital and patience to see it through.

Benson - what is your suggestion - not criticizing but the country does not have alot of choices here, are you prepared to have the credit markets completely shut down and live with the consequences - if not then what?

Posted by: fsrg at September 26, 2008 12:33 PM in response to WaMu Bailout a Bonus Bonanza for Brooklyn Bigwig

I have installed 4 Aiphone systems and they are terrific, cheap and reliable...
one feature that you should look into with the Aiphone system is that they allow you to add cameras from a surveillance system, so that tenants can hit a key within their apartment and not only see the front door, but then scroll through to view other cameras live - add security and a convenience to check out usage in common areas like roof decks and laundry rooms.

Posted by: fsrg at September 25, 2008 12:28 PM in response to Inside Third & Bond: Week 55

The lack of convenient land within the Northeast in which to 'sprawl' into, is the single factor that may save NYC from entering a horrible period like that from 1970-1990.

Posted by: fsrg at September 23, 2008 10:23 AM in response to The End of White Flight?

Yeah I am sure that the melt down of our countries financial institutions (wall st) - which is anticipated to wreck havoc on the entire planet will only be a small blip here in Brooklyn even though we are only 1mi from the epicenter, have thousands of people directly employed within the industry, rent a large portion of our office buildings to these very companies and where a huge portion of our city and state tax revenues are derived from said industry......

Posted by: fsrg at September 23, 2008 10:18 AM in response to Brooklyn's Financial Class and the Condo Boom

Santa it might be - if you keep your job - do you work for the Government? - b/c tax revenues will be down ALOT and they will have to cutback; or Do you work for a retail store - sales will likely be down with same result;etc, etc, etc, etc

11217 - the 70K a year analyst on Wall Street might have been interested, or the 50K Graphic Artist who did alot of work in marketing (with budgets now down) might have been; or the chef (whose restaurant cant survive) might have been a buyer, or maybe the public defender whose (formerly rich) father might have spotted the downpayment in the past would be interested.

etc, etc, etc, etc

and Dow - economic activity/success is not weight-training - sure creative destruction can be a good thing in the long term - but long-term in this case could be several generations - are you prepared to wait for your Grandchildren to reap the benefits (its a possibility you have to acknowledge)

- renewable energy is all well and good but I doubt too many financiers. lawyers, accountants, (main intellectual capital in NYC right now) etc.... have much to contribute in terms of the engineering.
Those people (should be) good at steering investment into these hopefully lucrative (and beneficial) endeavors, and creating the laws and systems required to manage them. However, if there is no $ to invest, or if our financial infrastructure is so decimated, then this investment either wont happen, or wont happen here.

You want more renewable energy, or less wealth disparity, or less homogenization of neighborhoods - or whatever - policy changes can/could have brought that about but virtually all these goals are infinitly more difficult in periods of economic hardship.

So unless you are just so overjoyed by your schadenfreude, the current situation is bad all around and for virtually everyone in NYC.

Posted by: fsrg at September 22, 2008 2:43 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

11217 - that is all a great sentiment and hopeful

but I can not think of a single industry except movie production that is not significantly tied to the overall NYC/US/Global economy genrally and "wall st" more specifically here in NYC (Movies seem to do well in economic downturns). Can you name some others?

As to making NYC into the place it "used to be" - NYC has been seriously tied to wall st's fortunes for the better part of a century and in fact the industries that used to diversify our employment picture, have been leaving NYC, the NE and the USA for decades.

Again, everyone wants things to 'work out' but we should at least be honest about the problems.

Posted by: fsrg at September 22, 2008 1:49 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

I dont know but in my experience many many of those artists and creative professionals who live in Brooklyn (and elsewhere in NYC) are one way or another tied to the overall city economy and a downturn will make Brooklyn just as unaffordable for them even if sale/rental prices come down.

Who buys the art produced by the artists, who employs these creative professionals? I think vast numbers of people coming under these titles either work directly for, or as independent contractors, for the companies and individuals who can be expected to be hurting over the next few years (at least).

Additionally - I am not so sure that your mallification argument holds up either - the boutiques, unique restaurants and specialty shops that we all love so much generally have (much) higher price points that your typical chain type store/restaurant - if people are hurting, Costco and Home Depot make very nice substitutes to the local (expensive) hardware store or specialty butcher.

It is always nice to try and find a silver lining (and cheaper RE is one) but I just dont see a widespread economic downturn benefiting anyone (long or short term).

Posted by: fsrg at September 22, 2008 1:29 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

shillstoner - I agree with your assessment until you allege that all this is good for Brooklyn.
I don't care who has been "priced out" - the loss of huge amounts of income, and asset values as well as increased unemployment has NEVER been a benefit to any community anywhere.

Posted by: fsrg at September 22, 2008 12:39 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

Ozymandius - you are kind of arguing both ends at the same time.

Banks/Fin Inst. will not issue new mortgages as long as they hold assets on their books that they are unable to value. The result of which is continued deterioration of housing.
So while the "bailout" plan wont directly impact housing, its effect most definitely will.

As to the bailout in general - it is a horror show but nothing like the horror that we are facing - by many accounts last week we were 48hrs away from - non-functioning credit cards & ATMS; Bank runs, panics and potentially riots and violence.

And while I am seriously in favor of higher taxes on ultra-high earners (since we are now seeing that 'rugged individualism' doesnt really exist - and those that benefit the most by "society" should pay the most to maintain it) BUT putting salary caps, demanding equity stakes in private companies and these other 'disincentives' will effectively destroy the potential of the Federal Govt from actually profiting in the long run on this plan. The quicker that Financial Inst. can get these toxic debts off their books and start making new $ (albeit at a much slower rate - since less leverage) - the better.
Additionally, you want these institutions to WANT to dump these assets at the cheapest possible price, and as quickly as possible - so that when the true value of these assets become clear (based on cash flow and collateral) - the Govt may sell at a profit. If the Govt makes Companies decide to try and "ride it out themselves" - then you are looking at prolonging the credit crunch AND increasing the cost to the Govt to buy the assets in the 1st place (why sell them cheap if the result is that I am going to hinder my earnings as well as that of my shareholders).

The smart move is fund the new RTC - buy cheap and tax high earners.

Posted by: fsrg at September 22, 2008 12:31 PM in response to What Lies Beneath?

No one knows - but if I had to bet - I'd say allot closer to 40% than 10%.

Just like everyone was surprised how far "up" prices went - it is likely everyone will be surprised how far "down" prices go - it is a pendulum and it is swinging back fast and hard.

Posted by: fsrg at September 22, 2008 10:32 AM in response to What Lies Beneath?

amt230 - The reason why drivers and pedestrians constantly blame cyclists for saftey issues - is because not only do far more (%-wise) cyclists disobey the rules and ride recklessly but also b/c the cities cyclists so often display a hostility/chip-on-the-shoulder attitude about their behavior. I suspect it is part of the bike culture (and also it DOES take a certain amount of hubris to ride on city streets with cars), as well as an enviromental anti-car feeling as well. However, this attitude IMHO leads to a reckless attitude that must be addressed by cyclists (public education, enforcement, etc....) if they want to be taken as a serious transportation alternative.
Anyone who witnesses the arrogance and recklessness of cyclists on the Brooklyn Bridge - as well as in Prospect and Central Park - has to admit that cyclists need to address their community (and fast)

Posted by: fsrg at September 12, 2008 12:46 PM in response to Warnings to Cyclists Near the Bridge

Park Sloper - I agree that psycology place a huge part in all this BUT - the thing that I can't figure out is - where will future mortgages come from to support the housing market:

The current plan (universally accepted apparently) is to shrink Fannie and Freddie - well since they provide the vast vast majority of conventional loans, who is going to take their place - clearly investment banks arent going to be jumping into this market for a long long time - nor can they compete with the cost of borrowing that even a smaller Fannie and Freddie will be able to offer.

The Government now controls the housing market 100% - either they open the spigots and re-inflate everything (at the expense of the treasury) or we are in for a long long long period of falling and stagnate home prices.(and do not ignore the demographic reality of an aging population - which will further put pressure on housing prices)

Posted by: fsrg at September 12, 2008 12:05 PM in response to Housing Crisis Will End on June 30, 2009

The Bridge is a disaster waiting to happen - the bikers think they own the bridge and ride at alarming speed, inches from pedestrians - many of who are tourists - who dont always realize the importance of not straying into the bike lane.

I have said this before - I will have zero sympathy for the 'biking community' until they start to respect the rules and safety of others. Sure they are often the victims of aggressive and stupid automobile drivers - but the arrogance with which they conduct themselves undermines the call for a more bike friendly culture.

Posted by: fsrg at September 12, 2008 10:26 AM in response to Warnings to Cyclists Near the Bridge

I have seen turnover of 20% in the 1st 18mo of ownership in more than 1 building, simply through normal moves and demanding that people pay the rent (quick dispose notices, etc...). After that tends to be about 5-10% a year based on normal moves, deaths, evictions, etc...

Yes Sam you are right, there are professional deadbeats (again why I say stay away from programs like Sec-8) who will go to court every time, make stuff up and continue living rent-free; but far more will give up much sooner when they realize you will pursue the case, not sign dumb stips and make them come to court over and over.

But yes - it requires patience, a digital camera (to prove repairs are not needed or completed) and meticulous paperwork.

But you are wrong that the majority of tenants in RS/RC buildings are slimeballs out to get over on the LL - most are hard working people who want a decent place to live and are rightly happy to take advantage of a law that makes it difficult to raise rents - however if you follow the law and pick the right opportunities there is plenty of upside in RS/RC housing - and you can be a human being at the same time.

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 3:51 PM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

It is nearly impossible to make any $ for a long time if the multiple is over 10x (historically 7x or lower is what you really wanted) - but frankly that isnt the most important factor - the most important factor is current rents. If you find a decent building with room rents of less than $265 a room (assuming an ultimate market rate of around $350 a room), you can generally make money pretty quick (3-5yrs). Stay away from buildings with more than 15% Sec-8 or other welfare programs (they never move, dont work and will destroy your building fast).

Also you want buildings with lots of 3rm apartments (i.e. 1BR) - believe it or not, they will be the easiest to rent and command the highest room rents.

And as I said before you need tons of capital (it will cost $15-20G to renovate an apartment properly, plus you'll need hundreds of thousands more for things like pointing, new elevators, new intercoms etc... - all things you can collect MCIs for and J-51s)

Personally I wouldn't buy anything now (unless it is a real deal) because one thing Sam said is true - lots and lots of people have entered the market (including hedge funds in recent years) - who have no idea what they are doing (these things are labor intensive investments) and with the price of oil so high this winter (plus water and taxes also up) I predict there will be alot of selling coming over the next few years - which will bring cap rates and GRM to a more legitimate (non-speculative) place.

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 2:02 PM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

Sam - glad you feel that way - Alot of money has been made betting against that exact sentiment over the years. (without bribery, physical threats or intimidation or otherwise acting like a criminal).

But then again I dont generally know about the hardened tenancy of Brooklyn - I generally deal with the soft, push-overs that live in the Bronx.

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 1:38 PM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

Good Services to me = reliable heat and hot water; clean (and attractive) environment, quick and efficient repairs and maintenance and a general consideration for safety (ie. decent security, snow removal lighting, etc...)

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 1:09 PM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

Benson - I am not ignoring any costs (including time) - nor am I advocating FOR RS/RC (I do favor a vacancy decontrol however).

All I am saying is that you can make alot of money in RS/RC buildings if you buy right (i.e. low rents) and have the capital to take advantage of the law to get MCI increases.

Yes, problem tenants can make your life miserable, delay things, and cost real $ - but with persistence and good records (and $) you will eventually defeat these obstructions.

And yes the bureaucracy favors the tenant, so it makes everything that much harder.

And yes RC/RS is price controls and results in most of the problems of such (shortages etc...)

But as to the strict point of whether you can make $ owning such property without being a cruel slumlord - sorry but the answer is YES.

You buy the building as a multiple of the RR - so if the rents are low (compared to market) and you have the capital to invest, you can use the laws provisions to make tons of buildingwide (and vacancy) improvements and you will (eventually) collect the investment back in terms of higher rents. And that includes higher rents on "improvements" that you could never collect for from non-R/S tenants - like a new roof, boiler, pointing, etc.....

The other advantage of RS/RC buildings (one which is foolishly being threatened by our assinie politicians) is that unlike market-rate tenants - every year (or 2) the "Government" mandates a rent increase (usually between 2-5%) - while it isnt a mandatory increase, tenants view it as such - which makes cash flow increases much more 'bankable' then in a market-rate building.

Look - I am no fan of RS/RC - it is stupid in so many ways - but you can make money at it (without being an a$$hole) and if you don't believe me - good - just makes for more opportunity out there.

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 1:05 PM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

Sam you are criticizing a number of things at once - NYC housing court determines the consequences (or lack there of) for failing to pay rent - and you are right - it is a joke. That being said - this has nothing to do with Rent Stabilization Laws.

And while I agree that the 'reward' for making tenants happy (i.e. providing good services and a nice building) is mitigated by the inability to raise rent, there is most definitely a benefit in keeping tenants happy - happy tenants pay quicker, treat your building better, and attract better (and higher paying) tenants for vacancies.

As for tenants not wanting improvements - so what - as long as you follow the law (albeit often time arbitrary and silly one) you can collect all the Capital Improvements from the existing tenancy whether they want it or not. You do not need tenants approval for buildingwide MCIs.

Look I am no fan of RC/RS - but it also provides certain opportunities - it aint easy - but there is plenty of money to be made in (some) RS/RC housing, while providing tenants a great place to live.

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 12:27 PM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

Not really true Sam - all you need is alot of capital and good management.

If you seriously renovate every vacancy (and thereby get much more rent); and put in significant buildingwide Major Capital Improvements (which raises existing tenants rent)

You don't have to be cruel or ruthless, all you really need to do is evict those tenants who do not pay and demand timely payment of rent from everyone else and you can quickly (3-5 yrs) turn a RS building into a very profitable investment.

Although I do acknowledge at 10.4x RR purchase price - such a senario is very very difficult

Posted by: fsrg at September 11, 2008 11:43 AM in response to Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Sale for $35.3 Million

Yes "lets hope" that the economic conditions continue to worsen and we get to have a hole in the ground and fallow land at one of the largest intersections in our boro for another 3 decades.

In fact lets hope we enter a new depression so that metrotech ends up being empty and has to be imploded.

Actually lets pray for a new 'dark ages' so that Bruce Ratner never makes another dollar.

No no lets pray for the end of the world so that Bruce Ratner and his offspring, relatives and associates are wiped from the earth along with all record of their existence.....

Posted by: fsrg at September 10, 2008 10:28 AM in response to Plans to Break Ground on Yards, But What About Phase II?

ell442 - have you ever been hit as a pedestrian by a bicyclist going at full speed....the consequences can be life threatening

Posted by: fsrg at September 9, 2008 12:35 PM in response to Brooklyn's Dangerous Intersections

daveinbedstuy- "Bubbles and downturns aside...."

Sorry Dave, but you can't put them aside, they exist now and always...renting and owning both have benefits and risks - one is not automatically better or worse.

Posted by: fsrg at September 9, 2008 12:31 PM in response to Now That's Luxury Real Estate

Lisa - please do not fall into that mindless trap of referring to rent as 'throwing away $'....

Most home ownership costs such as Interest (after deduction), taxes, maintenance, and the present value of the downpayment are 'thrown-away' exactly like rent - so unless the value of your home increases in value (which by now I hope you realize is not guaranteed) rent can result in less $ 'thrown-away' then a mortgage/ownership. Just ask the millions across the country with underwater loans - whether they are glad they arent 'throwing $ away' on rent.

Posted by: fsrg at September 9, 2008 11:28 AM in response to Now That's Luxury Real Estate

Absolute tragedy.....seriously can not imagine the horror of being that father.

I also can not imagine allowing my 8 yr old child (with me or not) to ride his bicycle on Adams, Livingston or virtually any other street in downtown brooklyn (except maybe some in BH).

I also think that for the most part (and having nothing to do with this article or tragedy) that the vast majority of bike riders in this city are a bunch of self-entitled, arrogant pricks, who love to complain (rightly) about the recklessness and insensitivity of the average driver but fail to see the same behavior in their own ranks.

-Stop lights are mandatory for bikers and automobiles
-Sidewalks are for people
-(while I am sympathetic that too many people are oblivious to the bike lane on the Brooklyn Bridge) It is not appropriate to drive 30 miles an hour when you are inches from pedestrians (this is the equivalent of putting a bike lane on a lane of the NJ Turnpike) and when pedestrians occasionally HAVE to step into the bike lane due to the narrow pathway. - And when a SINGLE bike rider actually stops at the MANDATORY x-walk at the bridge entrances - maybe I wont think you are all a$$holes for screaming at pedestrians who dare stray 'over the line'

In NYC Biker=Self-Righteous f^cks! (true most auto drivers are just f^cks)

Posted by: fsrg at September 9, 2008 11:18 AM in response to Brooklyn's Dangerous Intersections

Lets see... Toll Brothers who are having massive problems as the housing market tanks (and it will here too) - wants to build a 500 unit development adjacent too and atop one of the largest toxic waste sites in the country and one which raw (human) sewage is still pumped.

Who will finance such a project (it will have to be the Govt)
Who will insure such a project (the lawyers are already getting their index numbers for every cancer, birth defect or unexplained illness that occurs here)

While I'd like to see it built - this is pure folly....

Posted by: fsrg at September 9, 2008 10:24 AM in response to The Next Unveiling of Toll Brothers' Gowanus

Frankly I am not surprised by Ed Towns complete lack of knowledge, but I don't care how dumb or ignorant he is - it still will never force me to pull the lever for a candidate with a SERIOUS and prolonged history of violence (mostly against women) for the UNITED STATES CONGRESS - as Kevin Powers has - research it - it is quite scary.

While a large percentage of our representatives are an embarrassment, I still have to much respect for the ideals that these institutions are supposed to represent, that I don't know how any paper (even one as fugasy at the BP) could endorse a guy like Powell

Here is my endorsement - leave the row BLANK

Posted by: fsrg at September 8, 2008 10:45 AM in response to Time to Vote, People

As with prior bailouts (LTC, RTC) - I predict the Gov't will make a fortune on this one as well.

That being said - the whole necessity of the thing demonstrates the complete and total failure of the Bush Administration over the last 8 years.

Posted by: fsrg at September 8, 2008 10:39 AM in response to Government Rescues Fannie and Freddie

Biff....they were

Posted by: fsrg at September 3, 2008 1:57 PM in response to Condo Growth Imperils Schools

You're right my math is way f'ed up. (I went to a NY school in the modern era)
Although the idea that parental involvement was a driving factor in public schools in the 50's and before is still largely a fantasy.

Sorry about the math

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