wow, the lady of the house is going off on the butler today.

Posted by: antidope at November 20, 2009 4:06 PM in response to New Cafe for The Heights

i know a little about argentine real estate. i find the prices in prime areas of bbaa stubbornly high given the crisis they've lived through. further, unless you go to the closing with dollar bills, literally cash, then you won't get a deal done. people show up with duffels of cash. lovely city though.

Posted by: antidope at November 20, 2009 2:28 PM in response to Open House Picks

all except the first were bought with 3.5% dp fha loans, bho.

when fha goes belly up next year what will happen?

better wait for another 50% off.

Posted by: antidope at November 20, 2009 2:18 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

if sellers can wait til 2010 then they may have enough wherewithal to outlast the freefall. to get complete collapse you'd need another year or two of negative macroeconomic numbers, imo. i mean some people just don't change their tune. A+ for consistency.

otoh, some might even argue that prices have stabilized already and that we are seeing strong signals of a bottom forming. some also might argue the real freefall is not yet here. still others can imagine a real bounceback.

btw, i use that prior para to determine at any given point whether to buy a) gold, b) t bills, c) stocks, d) cdo's e) rmbs, f) alphabet soup, g) unimproved swampland in florida, h) condos in argentina, i) foreclosed homes in detroit or j) any effing asset class.

inside information (in most markets) is useful and illegal for a reason.

Posted by: antidope at November 20, 2009 2:14 PM in response to Open House Picks

i am surprised i never saw this girl at the park.

http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/tv/fiddle_stick_kid_Z9usJXsqsZuyWyyinUXCoJ

awesome talent.

Posted by: antidope at November 20, 2009 11:37 AM in response to Plans for J.J. Byrne Park in the Slope Unveiled

someone pls put this thread out of its misery.

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 3:11 PM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

hearty apologies to all those waiting for my formal acknowledgement of stevieb’s googling skills. it's a tough crowd that frowns on lunch breaks.

so you’ve now found 2 folks who made serious serious money and 3 more one hit wonders that called the crisis. congratulations and i hereby acknowledge you stevieb. you won the rhetorical question session. hear! hear!

but you know what? let’s do some math. take those folks and divide by the rest of the idiots long on real estate (approx 75 mio). that works out to 1 in 15 million or the same odds of winning the ny lotto if you buy 3 tickets.

virtually no one wins the lotto even though inevitably someone does.

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 1:13 PM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

DOB application approved 12/31/07.

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 12:31 PM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

k- looking at the records, the seller had plenty of equity and probably some cash/investments to fund the reno. seller probably lost some of that liquidity in the stock crash and by the time he went for a HEL s/he was SOL as banks were shutting them down. as PBK points out there may also have been other factors such as lost job or split up.

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 12:00 PM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

oh who cares. keep googling. my point is already made.

virtually no one was able to make money out of what people now see as the inevitable financial collapse of a generation.

but 75 million US homeowners are idiots.

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 11:46 AM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

read the rules.

i give you four.

you're doing some mighty fine googling.

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 11:39 AM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

you've gotten up to 2.

Eisman and Paulson (PP worked for JP so if you want to make a list of employees of Paulson & Co, then include the mailroom dude on your list too.)

i'll be waiting.

[tapping foot]

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 11:29 AM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

i hope the universal health bill includes mental health / therapy. some folks seem to have run out of money for pills early this month.

agree that buyers got in over their heads and lost their shirt. that can happen when folks take risks. buying real estate is always risky. it's an asset that can go up or down like all others.

i just have a hard time ascribing "idiot" to anyone who participated in the great real estate run up. obviously in hindsight, but i challenge anyone to name 5 *smart* people who saw this coming and made money on it. and seeing it coming for five years doesn't count because then you missed all appreciation even considering the current adjustment.

i'll be waiting for your answers. [no, i won't accept cyber handles]

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 11:11 AM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

there must be a reason these things are vents.

is it legal or even a good idea to seal them?

anyone know the code and reasoning?

Posted by: antidope at November 19, 2009 10:00 AM in response to Skylite heat loss

reluctantly i address our new troll, stevieb, probably the first (and hopefully last) person to claim the what as his personal savior. i mean, seriously? as per your 1200p post:

is someone with intimate knowledge of many of the hotd (ie s/he actually visits homes and claims to be in the market) really "more right than wrong" if they consistently underestimate the actual sales price by more than the casual observers who are shopping via internet listings only?

allow me to rephrase, does such a person qualify as a real estate expert if the collective monkeys on brownstoner (via the widget) consistently do better?

no. such person has a view and a goal, but is not accurately able to predict the current state of the market. such person is just one more monkey.

you've confused certainty with accuracy.

Posted by: antidope at November 17, 2009 2:26 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

of 21 hotd completed sales, 4 have been under widget.

Posted by: antidope at November 17, 2009 12:49 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

it's called talking your book. not particularly subtle, though not really effective, apparently.

113 garfield pl was HOTD twice, ergo the two widget prices. original widget was 15% off ask. second widget was 16% off new ask, itself down 7% from original ask.

given the sample size of widget pricing vis-a-vis the bs community's "expertness" i would note that every widget estimate comes in within a range of 15-25% off ask. And this holds in the handful of cases where same property is revisited. it does not seem to account for those wacky priced properties. see 65 ppw for example.

Posted by: antidope at November 17, 2009 12:41 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

five straight monthly c/s upticks. thawing market. tax credit extension. i think we'll make it your own metric by feb, maybe even jan. then all you'll have is your misplaced 10x, 3x straw men.

you'll be kicking yourself having missed the second mother of all rebounds. having already missed the mother of all equity rebounds.

nothing wrong with renting either cuz this is gonna be a dead cat bounce. there's safety in a litter box.

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 4:51 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

bho- that'd be february at the rate we're going now. but c/s won't report it til may. better start the search now if you want to set the bottom. ;)

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 3:27 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

[inside 216 prospect]
can you speak up? i can't hear you?
did you say i made a good purchase?
[opens window]
[quickly slams window down]

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 1:29 PM in response to Open House Picks

re 4th st
they could've rented it 5 months ago for 1 year and started marketing it again now.
looks like a 3 family used as a 2. higher tax bill?
that looks like a full width wood deck. i'd think that
would cause some *issue*. i don't think it's legal.

desperation clearly has not set in yet. small chops only.

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 1:01 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

yes. i noticed that this morning. good news.

also an indicator of construction loan availability -- market in defrost mode.

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 11:10 AM in response to Stalled 4th Avenue Site Sold; Work Resuming?

bho you've argued previously that th were 500-750k in ps ten years before this peak.

*** "A year ago, Mr. Thomas said, sales in Brooklyn Heights and the prime areas of Cobble Hill ranged from $1.3 million to $1.7 million. "By the end of 1997, we had marquis listings -- the best properties in the best locations -- listed as high as $5 million. The resulting impact in Park Slope is that houses that were trading in the $750,000 to $900,000 range are now listed from $900,000 to $1.3 million." ***

so much for your basic premise that housing tripled. looks like you've underpriced your starting point by up to 50%.

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 10:32 AM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

market is well into defrost mode.
this will be a custom single family, i don't see a rental here.
follow the construction loans...

Posted by: antidope at November 13, 2009 9:56 AM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

it is a long walk to a decent subway (not the F). but that's the price of centerslope park blocks. get your driver to shuttle you around.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 4:48 PM in response to House of the Day: 540 4th Street

sorry i missed the dustup.
agree with 420p. well said.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 4:44 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 40 Clarkson Avenue, #4F

[shoulder shrug]
it's there. maybe new york city dept of finance is upset with you for being so negative wrt their ever rising property assessments?
i guess you'll just have to accept my word or wait for your proof.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 2:14 PM in response to House of the Day: 540 4th Street

nothing, bd. just the regular readers interested in real estate are here. it'd feel off topic in the ot!

i don't think buyers pay close attention to $psf in townhouses, but property shark has this house at 18x40x3=2160 (outside dimensions) putting this at $764.

also, a note to all conspiracy theorists, the buyer is a lifelong professor; not sucking at the public trough.

per this house. love the limestone and location but agree w denton on cost to make it lovely. 10% off.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 1:47 PM in response to House of the Day: 540 4th Street

primary source, mm. acris.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 1:35 PM in response to House of the Day: 540 4th Street

113 Garfield Pl sold for $1.65 clearing original widget by 8% (4/13/09) and off original ask by 8%; vis-à-vis Revisited (7/1/09) it sold for 18% over widget and 1% off new ask.

Despite the comments.

Go re-read them.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 1:31 PM in response to House of the Day: 540 4th Street

interesting that the original developer will have a shot at earning back some of its lost equity.

i concur that the buyer of the mortgage likely bought at a steep discount. zeroed out the equity and large haircut to the loan.

methinks they will be (financially) able to offer first buyers opportunity to wait until bldg gets to minimum threshold or opt out if not done in time.

we will not see prices in the $300 psf zone, as some hope; there's no need for a firesale anymore.

creative destruction at work here.

Posted by: antidope at November 12, 2009 9:58 AM in response to Second Life For Be@Schermerhorn

your bottom price is likely wrong. this jonathan miller from 1997 (http://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1001383610FwKl). This might not have been the bottom but it certainly was before the boom really got going.

"Beginning three years ago, said Christopher Thomas, the William B. May Company's vice president for Brooklyn, "Prices in Brooklyn Heights started rising in response to Manhattan prices. And through last year, the rise in Brooklyn Heights prices prompted a rise in neighborhoods further into Brooklyn -- Cobble Hill, Carroll Gardens, Boerum Hill and Park Slope."

Comprehensive numbers for Brooklyn sales were not available because the borough has no central realty board. But, by another measure, the Case Schiller Weiss survey, the trend was apparent.

Case Schiller Weiss has devised an index to track price fluctuations. The survey is based on a table showing the average price of all single-family homes sold in ZIP-code areas, year by year. To determine price fluctuations in 1997, for example, the survey took the purchase price of each home sold in each ZIP-code area during the year just ended, compared it to the price the house brought when it was last sold, and then, using the annual index, adjusted the earlier purchase price to what it likely would have been had it sold in 1996.

Of the 36 ZIP code areas in Brooklyn, only one experienced price depreciation last year; 10 showed appreciation up to 2 percent, 24 appreciated 2 to 4 percent and one appreciated by 6 percent or more.

A year ago, Mr. Thomas said, sales in Brooklyn Heights and the prime areas of Cobble Hill ranged from $1.3 million to $1.7 million. "By the end of 1997, we had marquis listings -- the best properties in the best locations -- listed as high as $5 million. The resulting impact in Park Slope is that houses that were trading in the $750,000 to $900,000 range are now listed from $900,000 to $1.3 million."

Posted by: antidope at November 10, 2009 6:13 PM in response to House of the Day: 615 2nd Street Revisited

what year was the bottom for you?

Posted by: antidope at November 10, 2009 5:37 PM in response to House of the Day: 615 2nd Street Revisited

i think that is about right, bd. however, i'd like to know what the right number is. is there a historical median? will we settle above/below it? kind of like a discussion of p/e ratios in the equity market.

i feel pretty comfortable that bho's metrics are useful but that the stated medians are not...medians. perhaps they are close to the numbers at the bottom of the last cycle, but i have no idea if that is true and bho's never offered any evidence anyway. i think median incomes or precentile incomes are an important factor in upper end purchase of homes. but why 3x? why not 1x? or 6x? seems to me that it is a long term asset and should be expected to be paid off like an auto loan in 7-10 years. i also think that despite the current lack of jumbo financing liquidity we will ultimately settle in a world where it is available at more conservative ltvs and higher dps will be part of the story. there is still a lot of wealth in the world.

Posted by: antidope at November 10, 2009 4:46 PM in response to House of the Day: 615 2nd Street Revisited

cGar- he's not as ocd as some of us about tracking price v widget. that said, 65 ppw is an anomoly: ridiculously priced to start, unique location, noname/bad realtor, no fotos led everyone astray. it's a hazard of shopping for a home via the internet. 50% off ask is NOT equal to 50% off peak comps.

Posted by: antidope at November 10, 2009 3:38 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

4/28/09 hotd sold for 1.410; 3% below widget and 17% below ask.
4/22/09 hotd 65 ppw is 36% below widget and 52% off ask.

Posted by: antidope at November 10, 2009 3:10 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

those sales are not 2 years old. the 10% dp was made two years ago but buyers have made a calculation (or received an unseen concession from contract) that the purchase price today is better than walking from the dp.

i wouldn't call 1BBP a crappy spot, especially with the water and views and new park. agree the other side of the bldg has some serious issues and the bldg overall might have some occupancy related issues, but who really knows.

for those folks to close on those deals despite turmoil, i can only imagine that they are pretty spectacular four walls.

Posted by: antidope at November 10, 2009 12:23 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

adios.
infinite, thanks for putting me in the rubber room. ouch.

Posted by: antidope at November 9, 2009 4:45 PM in response to House of the Day: 430 10th Street Revisited

mean? pls. don't get me started.

as i recall, he was the jackal laughing at all the idiot buyers.

then he morphed into i make so much $$$ i will skin these (previous) idiot owners. (btw, he's waived his bank statements and 1040s around here multiple times.)

finally, humbled(?) into going long on real estate.

to top it off, he does it anonymously, which makes him open and forthright.

whatever.

Posted by: antidope at November 9, 2009 4:23 PM in response to House of the Day: 430 10th Street Revisited

now there's a real man's bear. that's it, stick to your guns.

Posted by: antidope at November 9, 2009 4:13 PM in response to House of the Day: 430 10th Street Revisited

Capn (Underpants) of Team Bear throws in the towel and buys the Toyota thinking it was a Benz (as described by ex-fellow bear). So much for your headwinds / tailwinds bs, eh? how many comps did you see at that peak price? i hope you saw more than one idiot buyer overpaying, otherwise your 26% discount might really only be 10-15%, especially if the comps weren't perfect (have you really seen them?). i can hear the jersey bloggers from hear hollering about the stupid idiot overpaying in hoboken. i thought that market was off 30% anyway? it's an endless cycle, really. but you've just become the latest victim.

thanks for the income and bank statement infor mfn. i have to say rob 315p was his best comment i have seen him/her/it make. but i'm sure your hoboken dinner party guests will enjoy such exchanges of 1040 info in the future.

goodluck in jersey. if you hadn't been such an a**hole in the past i might even mean it.

Posted by: antidope at November 9, 2009 4:03 PM in response to House of the Day: 430 10th Street Revisited

those are brooklyn slippers.
he keeps his expensive, clean shoes in the bentley.
duh.

Posted by: antidope at November 9, 2009 12:50 PM in response to Ratner Tight-Lipped on AY Details

i think it is very hard to comp apt even in the same complex unless you know the layouts/improvements.

smaller apts seem to have a larger $/psf. bc kitchen is larger p.c. of floorplan? is this typical moving down to 1br and studios?

otoh, the 675 sackett ppty that traded DOWN and missed 2 yrs of bull is an important data point.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 3:59 PM in response to Open House Picks

not bad mfourl. not bad.
nevertheless, i'd like some more of the kool-aid pls.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 3:25 PM in response to Open House Picks

ditto.

just do it.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 3:18 PM in response to 85 State's Roller Coaster Ride

i suggest that given your experience you have identified a previously overlooked niche in the market. you could probably build a multibillion dollar reno biz while operating with fair trade principles and wipe out the rest of the scoundrels who are actively colluding to fleece the tax-payer stuffed pockets of the stupid (rich) buyers.

the beauty of the business is that it is very low capital intensity. in other word, you've got no excuses. get on it before someone else figures it out.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 2:52 PM in response to 85 State's Roller Coaster Ride

Benson/Petebkln-

For kicks I signed up for access to SE for a month. Although all the data is available at ACRIS, SE is more convenient when looking for comps in any given bldg.

To support my 20% off condo pricing thesis:

675 Sackett St: peak $655 psf (#206); latest $527 (#404)-$591 (#301) psf is 10-20% off. also #404 traded for 1.120 in September 2005 and recently sold in August for 1.025. That’s 8% off but there was a lot of missing bull run in that number.

438 12th St.: peak $850-950 psf; latest $680-760 psf is 10-20% off

330-346 2nd St: peak $833 psf; latest $648 psf is 22% off
306-314 2nd St. and 305-309 3rd St: excluding the lower duplexes, which sell for a big discount to rest of bldg (sub-grade): peak $839 psf; latest $681 psf is 18% off. As Benson’s pointed out there is another unit in contract that will define a more current comp.

If you post some other condo addresses I can check for real comps…

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 2:39 PM in response to Open House Picks

tsix and rob are 'stoner's two pet cranks?

when was the last gut reno project you undertook? that's what i thought. never. your gut tells you a gut reno should be cheaper. ooookay. have you even priced a bathroom reno?

having missed the fotos, but judging by comments and 5000 sqft, i'd wager that 1.5 is correct plus/minus 300.

but at least tsix's posts are quasi-entertaining rages against the machine.

good for the cuny professor. developer took a risk (equals greed?) and lost. next.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 2:15 PM in response to 85 State's Roller Coaster Ride

Lost

My

Shirt

and winter's coming.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 11:42 AM in response to 85 State's Roller Coaster Ride

wholeheartedly disagree. among states it's competition to attract business, not a bailout. i thought u were in favor of competition.

Q: how are hedge fund returns stacking up on the trading front next to the us underwritten MOACT profits at the banks?

A: ??? i don't have data, but i'd wager on the side of "not as well" bc their cost of capital is much higher.

Posted by: antidope at November 6, 2009 10:53 AM in response to Friday Links