Forte Condo Belly Up?

Anybody know what those 1920s houses on Maple Street go for?

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 16, 2009 1:19 PM in response to Brooklyn Sales: Under a Million

DIBS = Desperately Imagining a Bottom in real estate Soon.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 16, 2009 11:38 AM in response to Brooklyn Sales: Under a Million

According to Bloomberg online NY now has the largest overhang of subprime mortgages in the country.
I don't see how it is remotely possible that NYC real estate will come back faster that it has in other down cycles, as DIBS is desperately hoping. In any case, there will be plenty of time to get in at the bottom because real estate changes trend very slowly.
By the way, the stock market has experiened a very nice...

Dead Cat Bounce
(take some profits off the table NOW)

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 16, 2009 10:51 AM in response to Elliman: Brooklyn Market Improved in 2nd Quarter But...

I saw this building. The broker told me there was an accepted offer.

Huge renovation job and absolutely nothing worthwhile saving in the interior.

Not prime Fort Greene, but still a good location.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 9, 2009 1:28 PM in response to House of the Day: 180 Adelphi Street

MARKET DOWN 7% from recent highs. If stock market is going to lead the economy when it's going up, how about when it's going down?

China may be in a great economic position right now, but they are a fascist dictatorship, a major polluter, and have imperialist asperations.

The US stupidly put China in the cat bird seat, and eventually will have to deal with the negative implications of our short sightedness.

Dibs, how come you hate workers in this country, but love them when they run China?

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 9, 2009 10:13 AM in response to Open Thread

Corcoran loweing prices GAME OVER!
A few more big down days in the stock market and Ill start to prepare for the inevitable...
Dead Cat Bounce

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 8, 2009 1:44 PM in response to House of the Day: 448 6th Street Revisited

NEWS FLASH:
Palladians coming to Bedford Stuyvesant with riches of the entire universe to buy up all the available real estate. They have run out of room on planet Xeno and are crazy about classic brownstones.
Crime is no problem for the Palladians - they have force fields. They are looking for unemployed hedge fund managers to work as handymen. Unemployment problem solved!

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 2, 2009 2:51 PM in response to Housing Market - Where Are We?

Game Over!

Dibs, you remind me of the clown economist Larry Kudlow who continually ranted about the "Bush economic miracle". Just substitute the words "Bushwick" for Bush.

Even you have changed the debate from "everything is great" to "Where is the bottom?".

The facts are in! NYC is not immune! Admit you were wrong and move on.

One ray of hope: Even the Real Estate Brokers seem to be admitting there is a problem. The path out of this will be:

a. A rise in GDP (Nowhere in sight - a rise is different from not going down as fast).
b. An actual improvement in the employment numbers
c. A slow and painful levelling off of NYC real estate prices that reflect the actual utility value of housing.

Before all that happens, I'm on the lookout for the inevitable...

Dead Cat Bounce

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 2, 2009 10:19 AM in response to Open Thread

I actually felt sorry for DIBS yesterday.
Today the debate between Team Bull and Team Bear came to an end.
Unemployment data and Manhattan price declines tell the whole story, at least for the near term: GAME OVER.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 2, 2009 9:48 AM in response to Open Thread

Actually I did notice then when DIBS is posting, the what is silent. They can't be the same person because DIBS lives in BS and the what lives in Lodi, NJ.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 1, 2009 11:12 AM in response to Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake

Joe the Bummer:
I like theory number three out of the two.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 1, 2009 11:01 AM in response to Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake

DIBS -
there are problems with every so called leading indicator, so I agree with you about that.

However, since you are in love with the idea that the stock market is an indicator of rising home prices, you should consider that the stock market has been rising on thin volume. And worse yet, down days have seen much heavier trading than up days. In other words, an ever smaller pool of greater fools has been accounting for the rise in prices. Sounds a lot like the former housing boom.

There is always the possibility of a ...

Dead Cat Bounce

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 1, 2009 10:53 AM in response to Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake

DIBS is at it again.
Even those who believe that the stock market is a leading indicator of economic activity recognize that there is at best a loose corelation. A favorite aphorism is "the stock market forecast 5 out of the last 3 recessions."
if you would take the time to do the analysis yourself you would see that there are enormous problems with the stock market predictor theory. The most obvious one is that the sample size is miniscule.
On the otherhand, there is a huge body of evidence connecting employment data with home values. In order to believe that home prices in NYC are going up you must also believe that employment at the high end is either about to rebound imminently, or has already turned up. That is magical thinking.
I'm still looking for any sign of a ...

Dead Cat Bounce
P.S. DIBS why don't you do a little homework instead of blathering back the common garbage?

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 1, 2009 10:37 AM in response to Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake

I bid $220.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at June 30, 2009 10:16 AM in response to 215 Gates Sells...For the Fifth Time in Five Years

Mortgage Brokers can be helpful but they are in business to get paid, and that money ultimately comes from you, no matter what they say.
In the two mortgages I have had, I found the best deal by shopping the lenders myself. It took a lot of work, and some of the lenders were major jerks. I just said "next" when I ran into an arrogant SOB, and I did considerably better than deals I found with mortgage brokers. It costs you nothing except time to see what is out there.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at June 25, 2009 9:05 AM in response to Benefits of a Mortgage Broker?

OK DIBS, you explain the math on this house to me, and I'll explain the URE to you.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at June 23, 2009 12:16 PM in response to 329 Adelphi Visit

Actually, I do know what's involved.

What price would you pay. At $700,000 by your own math, you are losing money. Sure it's got potential, but the right number is so ridiculously far from ask that it's not worth dealing with. If you have a different analysis, go ahead and explain. Everything works at SOME price.

The URE has been underperforming because that is what it is supposed to do in a down market. I've made money on both sides of URE and the TBT. That's why you have to know the difference between a new bull market and a ...

-Dead Cat Bounce

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at June 23, 2009 10:41 AM in response to 329 Adelphi Visit

DIBS -
you say you manage a hedge fund? How do you do that without a basic knowledge of arithmetic?

$900,000 to purchase, plus $500,000 to renovate, plus the opportunity cost on 1.4 M over a year (say $70,000) plus the cost of your time at minimumum wage (say $30,000), plus compensation for the risk and aggravation equals at minimum 1.5M for a house that by your inflated reckoning is worth 1.2M and you are underwater at least $300,000 dollars. Significant wealth destruction.

Do you work for Niederhoffer?

If you want to gamble recklessly on a RE comeback you can do so far more efficiently and with at least the ability to hedge by going long the URE.

This deal doesn't even deserve to be called a ...

Dead Cat Bounce

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at June 23, 2009 10:19 AM in response to 329 Adelphi Visit

I knew DIBS was all talk. If he really believed the optimistic nonsense he's been blathering about he'd hop on this money pit and turn it into a museum quality showpiece. The reality is, yould be throwing good money after bad in a declining market. Even DIBS is not THAT crazy - although when his own money is not on the line, he sure sounds it. Remember... The optimists thought they were seeing green shoots, but it was just a...
Dead Cat Bounce.

Posted by: DeadCatBounce at June 23, 2009 9:29 AM in response to 329 Adelphi Visit