Only because my wife has the desert eagle cocked at my temple, was'. I have to compromise and become an asshat. Damn nesting instincts. Got a spare wetsuit?

Oh well, Bed Stuy is mine when this shit bottoms out.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:47 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Nice bedtime story, ROTW. I still have a flyer from 1998 that shows brownstones (RENOVATED!!!) in Park Slope, Fort Greene, Boreum Hill, etc. going for 1/2 a mil. One day I'll post it on this forum.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:40 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

That was probably the first time I even typed "Long Island" on this blog, was'.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:31 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

"I'm lovin' your comically inept attempt to sound street DOW."

Damn! Okay, you've exposed me. I'm certified cornball.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:29 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Naw, was. The credits at the end say...

http://longislandbubble.com/

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:26 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

The Walk [away from mortgage]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=103iyJFFg2A

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:21 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Naw, I'm a change it to "25 to 50 percent DROP". Stocks are done. Brownstones are next up at bat and I'm Mariano Rivera.

I'm lovin' this shit.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:17 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Van Halen anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:03 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Remove the asking price and state "MAKE OFFER".

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 5:28 PM in response to Advice for a Freaked Out Apartment Seller

Guys,

May I change my handle?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 4:08 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

"Most of my posts are useful. All of them are intelligent, witty and on topic."

Toot toooooooooot!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 4:05 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

Thanks, DIBS. Finally something useful.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 2:40 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

"I have already started buying actual gold..."

How? How do you store it?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 2:08 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

"Suicide prevention.."

LOL

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 12:41 PM in response to Thursday Links

"Who'd have thought DOW8000 was too optimisitc a moniker?"

Me. I knew housing created the floor in 2003. Nasdaq's demise was supposed to take us lower. But I thought, ahhh, another bubble (alternative fuels?) would restart the cycle. Uh oh! Where's that next bubble?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 9:53 AM in response to Thursday Links

I don't think 40 stories is intrusive for a waterfront. Beats no man's land.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 9:38 AM in response to 40 Stories on the Greenpoint Waterfront?

Underhill.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 11:37 PM in response to Are people scared of Washington Ave?

"bad for local property values"

Perspective.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 4:15 PM in response to Saying No to House of D

I say yes. It's a Brooklyn landmark. How dare you? D-Block!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 4:14 PM in response to Saying No to House of D

Tip of the iceberg. Going forward, opportunities like this will come a dime a dozen. So rents will drop significantly until sale prices do. Developers/bagholders will rent out and hope for a recovery and then dump and cut losses when reality sets in. Good time to be a renter or a buyer.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 3:38 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"Or both."

2nd runner up.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 2:29 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"$5,500, quite a bit less than it would cost to carry a purchase of a $1,590,000"

How much less? Would somebody please do the math. I'm lazy (or incompetent).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 2:11 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"then it's not a good deal. price is completely set by supply and demand - there is no abstract value to real estate."

QOTD

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 2:09 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"Just look at where the foreclosures are happening..."

The boom started from the good areas and worked its way to the bad ones. The bust will do the reverse. It's a boomerang.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 18, 2008 5:12 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Good things come to those who wait. RE is slow. We're just coming off the top. It's not the stock market. You expect 25% price drops within 24 hours? 30 days? 1 quarter? Keep the cameras rolling. We're nowhere near the end of the shoot. When the bear finally says "it's a wrap" (2 years, 3 years, 5 years from now???), play it back in fast motion and indeed you will see a catastrophic crash (all 'hoods).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 18, 2008 5:11 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Joist,

Your reference was funny.

What I said next should have went on it's own line. I wanted to know the % units sold so far.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 10:15 PM in response to Streetlevel: Novo's Retail Tenant Appears

"I would ask the broker to tell me what she thinks the price would be without those tenants, and in that location."

That, my friend, would be a damn good question.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 3:36 PM in response to HOTD: 306 Washington Avenue, Two Price Cuts Later

See me @ 11:16, PropJoe. Correcting my casting error (Departed).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 3:06 PM in response to Brooklyn Is the New Hollywood

"'institutional' vibe"

That's funny. How 'bout some residential tenants? What's the score now?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 3:02 PM in response to Streetlevel: Novo's Retail Tenant Appears

And rents are dropping too. There was an article about Manhattan being a renter's market now (but we got Hollywood now so I don't know about Brooklyn). I'll link it later unless someone else can. There's nothing like a vacant delivery.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 2:15 PM in response to HOTD: 306 Washington Avenue, Two Price Cuts Later

"I challenge anyone to find a brownstone with this much original detail where you can live in a 1400 sqft owners duplex with a giant yard for a purchase price of $1.9 Million and income of $4200."

Give me a few months.

"...undervalued rents that will continue to go up every year or 2 years when tenants renew, and watch my income grow every year..."

It's a pipe dream. Rent stabilized tenants never move. That's why they're there now. That's why this place isn't moving neither.

You're very HOT though! I know the face and bod that comes with that name.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 2:09 PM in response to HOTD: 306 Washington Avenue, Two Price Cuts Later

Excuse me, Baldwin and Damon.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 12:53 PM in response to Brooklyn Is the New Hollywood

Williamsburg Bridge as GWB (American Gangster). Brooklyn Armory in Bed Stuy as Boston warehouse (Departed. Also Bronx Golf Center near Co-op City, scene with Baldwin and DiCaprio).

Hollyhood!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 11:16 AM in response to Brooklyn Is the New Hollywood

I have a better strategy. Swallow reality and accept your highest qualified bid.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 10:07 AM in response to Wanna Unload Your Property? Sell It Yourself

Apple vs Orange

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 10:05 AM in response to Park Slope Can't Measure Up to Marine Park

"Don't you mean to say that they may drop up to 50% over the short run and then go up but never up to the 2008 real dollar equivalent?"

No, not never, BrooklynGreene. Just not before we die.

"But it seems to me looking at the graphs comparing Brooklyn to other areas of the country, we simply did not have as much of an increase in prices so we should see less of a collapse, no? I’d love your take, Dow."

Yes, I definitely expect less of a collapse for the reason you state. I was in Northern California recently and someone told me of 70% nominal decreases in some of the outlying areas. Even in L.A. they're seeing 40% nominal drops. Yet still, no bottom in sight. For Brooklyn and all of NYC, I expect only a 25 to 50 percent nominal hit.

But BG, we're flirting with an economic depression. Home prices can drop so low that they become irrelevant because canned food becomes more important. The 60's, 70's and 80's offer no insight. I don't think the consensus realizes how bad it is out there. I don't think I realize it.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 15, 2008 2:18 AM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"The value of rare property...will not simply oscillate on either side of its historic inflation adjusted mean."

Why not, Aussie? The following graph "based on sale prices of standard existing houses, not new construction" shows just that.

http://tinyurl.com/g9vf4

That graph undoubtably includes rare property. Brownstones increased in value at the same rate as everything else. So, yes, you pay a premium for an antique. But that was already priced in before the bubble was blown.

"Over time there are more people with money and less rare properties and the curve is a steady rise."

I agree with that because just like the Mona Lisa, an original Picasso or an original Keith Herring, brownstones will become more and more rare over time. But not fast enough for us to see 2007 prices in 2007 dollars before we check out. It'll take a lot more time before they become Picassos. All the brownstones in Bed Stuy would have to be renovated before that happens. We saw 200% nominal increases because of cheap/easy credit, not rarity. Whatever rarity existed was already priced in before the boom.

"Look at West Village brownstones. In 1995 they were worth more than their inflation adjusted value in 1975 and in 1975 worth more than in 1955. They became progressively more desirable and rarer."

Those real increases paled in comparison to those of the recent past which were driven by cheap/easy credit unprecedented since the roaring 20's. When will we see this funny money again? 2090?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 15, 2008 1:56 AM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Nothing, boroughbred. But 10% would be welcome compared to what usually happens. But overruns were there during the market frenzy and they'll be there when the market finishes tanking. So really, they cancel out. Contract change orders are the name of the game for contractors.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 5:01 PM in response to The Future of Construction Costs?

No way my screen name affects the stock market, FLH. It's simply a derivation of the understanding that the economy was driven by home price appreciation which was fueled by cheap easy credit that started in 2003 when the DJIA was at 8,000 and the S&P 500 at almost 800.

Yeah, I cheered yesterday. I'm all bear. The lower the DOW goes, the more my prediction about home prices will hit bullseye or better (for us if my wife and I stay employed). I have no idea where it'll go from here and I'm not gonna even try to call it.

Good luck.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:56 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Just a typo, FLH. Point remains.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:22 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"I bought a house in PLG a year ago..."

[no comment]

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:20 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"but I would be careful of huge price cuts as these are the companies that disapear"

I agree. It has to be a comprehensive, accross-the-board industry price cut. Renovations and builds are better off postponed.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:12 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"...there are only so many brownstones and victorian era homes around in Brooklyn and certainly only so many of them that are on top of Prospect Park, the Brooklyn Botanic Garden and the Brooklyn Museum."

You're referring to a number. That number is rising due to foreclosures, relocations and probably divorces (inverse relationship with recessions). The other number, qualified buyers who can pay 2008 prices, is dropping due to layoffs, stock market hits, cruncy credit, lower appraisals and sub-700 credit scores.

"...highly unlikely that Lincoln Rd will be flipped for a handsome profit in the next few years...10 years from now they will be sitting on a property that is considered much more prime then than it is now."

Possibly, and hopefully, but probably for considerably less than $1.75M in 2008 dollars.

25 to 50 percent down from peak comps...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:06 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Japanese Economy for America.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 2:19 PM in response to Streetlevel: Japanese Restaurant for Smith Street

"To the extent that the owners are planning on being there for the long haul, I think it will prove to be a good investment."

Think again. Once in a lifetime boom/bust. We'll see subsequent booms before we die but not like that of the recent past. We will never see 2008 prices in 2008 dollars again before Judgement Day. Unless of course you're talking about an emotional investment.

25 to 50 percent down from peak comps...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 2:18 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Not trying to be silly, BG. I'm being realistic. Yup, alllllllllll the way down by 4th.

No, Bolder. No. You gotta look south and west to see where Park Slope becomes not so nice. 4th Ave has yet to arrive (fringy winjy). 1.5 is a pre-crisis price. Compared to now, things were looking very up in May or June. Then, we were still arguing about the recession call. Now, we're arguing about the depression call.

25 to 50 percent down from peak comps...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 2:12 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"...1.5m for it is a lot less than the cost of new construction."

Not even close. Sshhhhwwwwww for the seller (right before Black October). Damn damn damn for the buyer. That would have been two brownstones had they sat on that cash and waited. Same goes for Lincoln road - could have been two victorians for the price of one.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 1:10 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"Gas prices have not 'plummeted'..."

I just bought gas for $2.50 at the BQE entrance near Flushing. I don't pay much attention to gas prices 'cause I only drive on the weekends but that's gotta be be a 40% hit. You're not serious.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 12:15 PM in response to The Future of Construction Costs?

"some outdoor space is better than none."

I agree. Someday I'm gonna fall out of my window while trying to see who's ringing my doorbell.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:43 AM in response to 375 and 377 Baltic All Filled Up

"...there is a floor comprised of on-going obligations such as leased office space and equipment that at some point caps the reduction in management fees and material costs."

Yeah, but that floor is sinking too. There's only one economy.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:41 AM in response to The Future of Construction Costs?

Why not, FtGreeneCorey? We have to hear Ratner's quote. We know where he stands. What's wrong with a fair balance?

This piece is nothing but PR for either side. Pure speculation.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:37 AM in response to Barclays Maintains Ties to Atlantic Yards

Yeah, forget mortgage class for borrowers. Stage props (not as in property).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:25 AM in response to Horror Show Friday

"They offered to rent as soon as apts were ready - smart move."

Absolutely. I'd be pushing 2-year leases right now if I was a developer facing competition from mounting inventory.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:23 AM in response to 375 and 377 Baltic All Filled Up

"There was a miscommunication."

By design? I don't trust any of the numbers that Oro or Forte puts out with respect to % sold.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:21 AM in response to 375 and 377 Baltic All Filled Up

Sounds nice but what is the number? What exactly is the discount (range)? Why does it have to be burried somewhere (rhetorical, I already know why)? I'll bet the number is low enough to favor the developer no matter what happens. They have a bottom line that they are not yet willing to give up.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:16 AM in response to More Creative Financing: Price Chopper Insurance

Common sense: Like the developments themselves, there'll be a glut of available contractors and materials that will compete downwards in price. Construction/renovation costs will plummet.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:07 AM in response to The Future of Construction Costs?

Oh I've seen these guys in Clinton Hill years ago. But it was like 2 am.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 11:02 AM in response to Raccoons Take Clinton Hill

Finally. What a mess for the last 10 years.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 10:57 AM in response to LIRR Station All Dressed Up

Throw crack accross the street.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 11:04 PM in response to How do I get rid of Crachheads in front of my apartment

"3C must have been totally unrenovated."

How much does it cost to renovate one of these apartments, $100K?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 4:20 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 360 Clinton Avenue One Bedroom

"The continuous price chopping of townhouses and brownstones has not resulted in any contracts signed among the major Brooklyn firms..."

Price sanding. A chop is 25 to 50 percent. The highest qualified bid shall set you free.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 4:14 PM in response to Closing Bell: Rough Market Makes Strange Bedfellows

Depression drill. Gotta get ready.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 2:38 PM in response to Long Line Around BAM?

"Categories: Fire" [@ header]

I can't get enough of your category names, What. You're a wild dude.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 1:32 PM in response to Hedge-Fund Assets Shrink by $100 Billion! That's why everything has gotten cheaper. No more Hedge Funds driving up prices!

The buyer, Miss Muffet. Economic stimulus price.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 1:22 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 360 Clinton Avenue One Bedroom

Respect to the seller for calling the extra room for what it is. $485K is a philanthropic price.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 1:00 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 360 Clinton Avenue One Bedroom

Million dollar question: When was that first contract signed?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 12:40 PM in response to Price Cuts at Nzinga Townhouses

"DIBS, now you're really letting your "i'm a contemptuous elitist" flag fly."

An elitist in Bed Stuy. Now that's an oxymoron.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 10:41 AM in response to H&M Setting Up Shop in Downtown BK

Nice, was'. Good luck.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 10:11 AM in response to The Wasdies--best of my renovation

Old Navy's survivin'. Quality not much better.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 10:00 AM in response to H&M Setting Up Shop in Downtown BK

The focus should be restoration. Don't change it. Just clean it up and enhance it. I don't have time to read the report.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 9:58 AM in response to The Future of Coney Island

Ikea and H&M. Go Swedlyn!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 13, 2008 9:55 AM in response to H&M Setting Up Shop in Downtown BK

"You've clearly never been there [Jackson Heights] to suggest otherwise."

I bought and serviced a Volkswagen from Koepel. Park Slope? Hardly.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 5:30 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"A rising tide floats all boats and sinking one lowers them all also."

Cute but too simple. Some of us were prudent, have saved cash and will be fortunate enough to hold on to our jobs or get new ones. Also, when RE rebounds it does so very slowly. Much slower than the job market. Remember, tighter lending standards are back and here to stay. Prices are likely to go down and stay flat for a while. Plenty of time to get in the market (or get back, or buy an additional property) whether you suffer in the intirim or not.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 5:26 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Oh come on, 11217. DoBro is the bomb diggity and we are at the top of an unprecedented run-up in prices that will likely be mirrored in the downturn (at least that's the way I see it). Why not pursue an opportunity of significantly lower prices? Who the hell wants to live in Jackson Heights of all places? Even the outskirts of Brooklyn are not favored by most on this blog. Brooowwwnnnstoner.com!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 5:17 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"DOW..it's incredibly poor taste to throw up someone else's quote in this thread once the QOTD has already been awarded."

Not if it hasn't been deleted. It's just a comment. Fall back, Dave.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 5:10 PM in response to Quote of the Day

I'm confused, MM. What exactly do we disagree about? The What said "greed and delusion". You seem to agree that both were at stake. Delusion would be what you refer to as ignorance.

Fool me twice, shame on me. 99% of all screwed buyers have been jerked before by not understanding what they signed.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 4:43 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

I voted for fsrq's...

"A real buyers market comes when sellers shift from resisting selling at a declined market price - because they believe a higher price will come sooner rather then latter to a situation where sellers are willing to take ANY market price because they believe that the future market price will likely be even lower."

...but the above is a good selection. Although I know some doctors with little or no debt who consider themselves priced out of the 'hoods they've always felt entitled to.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 4:26 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"QOTD from fsrq."

I second. It's not too late, Brownstoner!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 3:11 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

"You cant compare areas of FLA to NYC."

I didn't. If I did, please reread and quote me. I merely entertained fsrq's Florida example when he/she tried to negate my point that we'll never see a RE boom/bust like this before we die. FL in the 70's/80's paled in comparison to FL in the 1930's. What FL is experiencing now is more comparable to the 1930's. Of course New York is more expensive but that difference from FL was already priced in before the bubble got started.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 3:06 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

"Dow - you ignore the Florida RE boom of the late 70's early 80's."

Doesn't compare to what's in store for FL now (what was drop from the peak, -50% or less?). Have to turn to the 1930's boom/bust (more than -50% drop).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 2:09 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

"fsrq and DOW8000SP800 - neither of you have any facts"

Facts:

http://tinyurl.com/g9vf4 (Price History Graph)
http://njrereport.com/80sbubble.htm (80's Bubble)
Population is flat at approximately 8 mil
Negative savings rate not seen since Great Depression
Unemployment about 10 percent and rising
Big five I-banks no more
Bailouts approaching $5T
Unprecedented intervention
etc...etc...etc...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 2:05 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

sebb vs what...

This is gonna be on fire.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 1:07 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Not Florida RE, fsrg. When I say one's lifetime I'm counting from when they are old enough to own. You had to be 30 or 40 (average) to have owned in 1930. By 2003, you were "well out of daisys to push up". We'll never see these prices in real terms before we die. We'll see bubble prices but not like the recent past.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 1:03 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

"WRONG!!! It's called greed and delusion! This has nothing to do with finance."

The What is absolutely correct. The spiking bar for required credit scores cancels out the need for personal finance education. You are officially educated when you reach 700 and some change. Finance meant nothing when banks became brokers with Wall St and "hot-potatoe'd" mortgage debt to unsuspecting investors. Guess who's back: Traditional Lending Standards. Tighty tighty.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 12:50 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

I agree with everything fsrg at November 12, 2008 11:30 AM said except for...

"...unless they are prepared to wait 10yrs minimum for prices to come back to anything like the recent past (just like what happened in '93-'03)"

Again, this is a once in a lifetime boom/bust (legendary housing bubble). You will never see 2008 prices again in 2008 dollars during your lifetime. The "in it for the long haul" argument is dead. If you did not sell before Black October, you will catch an "L". There are exceptions but this is the rule (yes, Brownstone Brooklyn TM too).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 12:33 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

"While many potential sellers may panic at this prospect, I'm not quite sure why unless they unwisely used their home as an ATM, or bought with an intention to flip fast. The vast majority of owners who have owned for more than 3-5 years should do fine."

I will be prudent (thus maintain my prediction of a borough-wide 25 to 50 percent price decline) and assume that the majority of sellers have a HELOC around their neck that has contributed (or will contribute) to their "depth below the water surface". If not technically, then effectively, as they have probably allocated paper wealth to, or borrowed money from, elsewhere. Hence the panic.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 12, 2008 12:09 PM in response to Has the Buyers' Market Come to Brooklyn? Duh.

Deets on One Brooklyn Bridge Park?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 11, 2008 2:08 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

"How low does the stock market have to go for you Obama supporters to second guess your golden boy?"

Not low at all. Obama nor anyone else can stop what's coming. Only the allowance of the market to find it's own bottom will stop the hemhoraging. He was clearly the best choice for a leader to "find an empty field" to steer this "burning plane" into.

"Fear of his promised eminent tax increases on high earners and business is driving the market to hell."

My handle was golden before Obama was elected.

"If you Obama supporters lose half your retirement savings or more..."

N/A

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 11, 2008 1:24 PM in response to Fear of Obama drives Stock Market Down!

"dow, one thing I wonder about in your calculations... do you think we are in for a massive reflation that will lead to temporary inflation?"

Absolutely. Hyperinflation. I think gold will kick ass because 1500 is the REAL all time high (although it seems hyperinflation would move that number higher). I expect other commodities to do well too. Tangentially related, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that GM is too big to fail - they will bounce back (bail out or not) and shares will soar. I think I'm gonna gamble on them.

"If so, those 30yr fixed mortgages will be a good deal indeed as everyone's income spikes up but payments remain the same."

Not a better deal than more money down on a cheaper house. I don't think hyperinflation will take incomes or home prices with it. It'll be food and energy.

"...every time you go to point out what idiots people are and lump everyone together a group who supposedly worked in concert to intentionally drive real estate prices higher, remember that every household has a story and a set of circumstances that are unique to them"

Didn't say their was a conspiracy. Just said that everyone who bought participated in the run-up, consciously or not. You complicate things, wasder. Housing bubble inflates - prices get away from their intrinsic value. Housing bubble deflates - prices fall through their intrinsic value and become undervalued. Happens everytime. You choose when to buy. Ownership is a privledge not a necessity. At bubble peaks, it costs more than renting (cash down, interest, maintenance, etc.). There's other things you can do with the difference than spend it on real estate at that stage of the cycle.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 11, 2008 1:04 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

So what's it gonna be Pit? Now I gotta go out. Maybe you'll see me at Bogota.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 6:14 PM in response to can anyone suggest a decently priced, but good restaurant in park slope?

"...what should I have done DOW?"

I recall you saying that you bought 25 to 50 percent below comps. If that's the case and you're not living payment to payment, then you did the right thing. If you paid more, then you should have rented, saved and waited. If that temporarily took you out of Clinton Hill or Brooklyn because of space value, then so it would have been. To triple your living space and make your payments go down, you leveraged. You borrowed money and relied on rental income. If this works out for you, congratulations. If not, it'll probably be because you borrowed too much and/or your tenants were laid off and/or the rental market then belongs to renters (which I predict will happen - too many condos built and not sold, too many former Wall Streeters leaving NYC for jobs elsewhere). Good luck either way. You don't need to be a statistic for my prediction to be on the money. Just answering your question.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 6:05 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

"How, DOW, did the readers of this site make the rules of NYC real estate?"

They fall for the hype and overpay. Participation.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 2:30 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

"We all live in NYC and none of us made the "rules" of real estate."

Yeah, we did. Now we're gonna unmake them. Reverse bidding wars. Sellers line up.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 2:02 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

"Friends of yours and your wife's will be hurt and it is hard to imagine that you won't care."

I cared when I tried to warn them. I was ridiculed. Aint got nothing but laughter now. But seriously, you're right, I don't enjoy the suffering of those close to me. But I don't feel too bad neither. They were warned. As for strangers, ah ha ha.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 1:52 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

Ah ha ha ha!!! I'm laughing too. I don't care who gets hurt. The writing has BEEN on the wall for years. Prices need to come down already. Enough is enough. It's our (those who didn't fall for RE only goes up) turn to laugh. And you know what? It's mad funny. It's hilarious. Ah ha ha ha!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 1:26 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

The whole world was in Vegas these last several years. Now it's Sunday afternoon and everybody's lining up at Western Union, cell phone in hand.

What a numbers racket.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 1:05 PM in response to The Asshat Weekend Edition.

Oh, my bad.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 11:59 AM in response to Say Hello to More Hello Living

Bogota (obviously Colombian). Mean skirt steak.

Sotto Vocci (Italian). Homemade fettuccini with mushrooms and chicken. Slammin.

Press 95. Very good paninis, nice sit-down environment.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 11:28 AM in response to can anyone suggest a decently priced, but good restaurant in park slope?

450 for a 1BR on that side of Wash is not 2007ish?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 11:19 AM in response to Say Hello to More Hello Living

"or they could just actaully enforce fines that exist on the books but which they ignore.

(littering, dog poop)."

They should, especially littering.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 10, 2008 11:06 AM in response to East River Bridges May Not Be Free For Long

Cancellation watch.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 2:34 PM in response to Development Watch: 277 19th Street

34' width huh? I jumped the gun. Just generally out of whack with everything else. Damn that's wide!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 2:32 PM in response to Open House Picks

Evidence of dropping rents. Pre-crisis they would have flown off the shelf.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:53 PM in response to Rental Reductions at One Brooklyn Bridge Park

These will make good flips at bottom market prices. They're worth something and comps will, no doubt, undershoot below that worth.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:46 PM in response to Horror Show Friday

"Dow they was always out of whack!"

Especially CG. I guess they mistook the BQE for Atlantic Ave.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:42 PM in response to Open House Picks

Nice throwback, Prodigal Son. The sentiment gets worse daily. Destination: -25 to -50 percent (nominally) from the peak (all 'hoods).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:37 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"Maybe they don't need to sell and are just looking for the stupid buyer to come along."

QOTD

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:34 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"A going out of business sale?"

Yup. The MARB (courtesy of What) is officially OOB.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:32 PM in response to Open House Picks

Carrol Gardens and Bed Stuy prices way out of whack?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 7, 2008 1:29 PM in response to Open House Picks

Stat makes sense. Crime appears to have recently spiked so not yet reflected. At any rate, the past is irrelevant with respect to crime. We all know it'll get worse going forward. I need to stop "sleeping" on these streets. They're always watching you.

Wasder - You engaged me in one of What's forums about whether I still wanted to buy in Brooklyn because of crime. Good question. That's why I tell my wife I want to wait before we buy, deal or no deal. So much easier to get out of a rental than a deed. It's my expectation that rents will take a significant hit as mortgage apps are turned down, jobs are lost and sales listings are converted to rentals. I'm looking to negotiate on a two-year lease for a luxury condo. This would give us plenty of time to feel out which neighborhoods remain safe enough or comfortable enough for my wife and kid, through this recession, to buy in. Or, maybe two years is not enough (depression). Either way, lower prices are not the only reason to wait it out.

What - At which intersection/block did that happen? Heard a lot of "clapping" last night as history was made.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 5, 2008 12:40 PM in response to Hynes: Crime in Brooklyn Down in '08

Powerful. Thanks.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 5, 2008 12:01 PM in response to Fun With Maps

"Any reason you feel this will not be the case going forward?" - ITM @ 3:44.

No, not at all. Overall, historic home values will outperform all others because they're like antiques. However, that outperformance does not mean they will escape -25 to -50 percent price drops from their recent peaks. Condos, coops and new homes will do worse.

This is a once in a life time boom and bust. You will be shell shocked.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 4, 2008 4:58 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Garbage
Of
The
Day

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 4, 2008 4:40 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"Brownstones in the historical and landmark districts of Brooklyn will always hold their value."

Yup. Their intrinsic values that is. Problem is they're way down there somewhere, like half comps.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 4, 2008 1:17 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

San Fran Bay Area, wasder. Home prices are getting killed out their. 70% drops in the rural areas people are telling me. I'm loving every minute of it. Nothing but bad news during my absence though. Gun fire, foreclosure in prime Prospect Heights, sales falling off a cliff. 'hell's going on?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 3, 2008 2:23 PM in response to The foundation of fraud.

Love the photo/analogy. The most powerful tool in business is deceipt. How's that bailout working out?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 3, 2008 2:10 PM in response to The foundation of fraud.

Miss Muffett says it all. Bid what you can afford on any listing you desire that is priced up to two times that amount. Over the next couple of years, that ratio will approach 1. But 2 is where we are today.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 3, 2008 2:01 PM in response to Condo of the Day: One Main Street, #3A

More permits are proportional to more price drops. Supply up, demand down. Love it.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 3, 2008 1:30 PM in response to Brooklyn Building Boom Healthier in 2008 than 2007

"...August or September might mark the peak in the rate of year-over-year price decline."

Not even close. dittoburg says it all at 1:38. That long ass two month lag knows absolutely nothing about my handle.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 28, 2008 1:55 PM in response to Case Shiller's Silver Lining?

"Oh nooooo! Look who they let in the front door! From Long Beach to Brooklyn..." - Nate Dogg, Mos Def, Pharoh Monch

Youtube it. Nice soundtrack for this thread.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 24, 2008 10:52 AM in response to Oh no.. World markets collapse..

Never mind the markets today.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 24, 2008 10:46 AM in response to Friday Links

Since Bloomberg is economic God, he should be comptroller. William Thompson for mayor.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 24, 2008 10:44 AM in response to Where To Now, Yassky and de Blasio?

Worldwide condo glut.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 24, 2008 10:41 AM in response to Washington Avenue Condo Glut?

"You want 40% off . Move to Vegas not here not now."

Paying anything more, here and now, IS VEGAS!!! Unfortunately, what happened on Wall St. will not be staying on Wall St. Sebb and flow back to reality.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 23, 2008 4:14 PM in response to Condos of the Day: 473 Clinton Avenue

That's true, BH76. It would be ideal if the BR's were on the floor above the parlor. I'm totally disregarding price here. (They should just start listing highest bids instead of these wishing prices.)

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 23, 2008 1:37 PM in response to Condos of the Day: 473 Clinton Avenue

The lower duplex layout is very ideal. The kitchen is in the middle, maximizing living room space. The master bedroom has his/her sinks and faces the more peaceful back yard side of the building.

But I'm LMMFAO at these Johnny-come-lately developers who think they can come here and charge 600+ for a studio and more than a big one for each of the duplexes and take us seriously. Pre-credit crisis, you could get a fixer-upper with rental income for less than any of those duplexes in the same area. Now...

I remember when that same building was defunct. Aint no renovation there worth 500K to 750K. Where's the value? That's not the best part of Clinton Ave. You don't want to be THAT close to the train.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 23, 2008 1:24 PM in response to Condos of the Day: 473 Clinton Avenue

"only yesterday or the day before, someone was twitting (stupidly) DOW 8000 for his handle"

I responded too. Check it out. It's the Biggest Sales tread.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 4:36 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

"DOW8000SP800 : the dow is at 9200 and going higher I guess you have to change your name."

Too much trouble. When it drops to 7000 and below, I'll have to change it again. I can't be bothered. I'll stay at the optimistic 8000.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 3:02 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Miss Muffet is right. Anybody in any 'hood could be underwater. Examples abound: Hamptons, Ed McMahon, etc.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:55 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

"most properties at this price level are purchased by people with the means to own them outright"

Or major cash down like 50% or better. UWS sellers.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:54 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

Recover from what, -5 percent? Prices have to fall in order to recover. Remember, this was a once in a lifetime boom/bust. A real recovery will happen after you die of old age and the new generation forgets all about The Greater Depression.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:52 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

Is your comp limestone, Miss Muffet (no photos in the link)? 3rd St is very synogoguey. I just see someone, some wealthy family, likening such a purchase to buying a Bently. Who cares what it's REALLY worth. This is an exceptional brownstone on an exceptional block. The rule is that all comps will be affected but I say this one goes near ask.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:49 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

"Who buys something that expensive with the intention of selling so quickly?"

Oh come on, wasder. Greed has no bounds. It discriminates no number.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:42 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

When an owner has that much time on their hands, FatLenny. Lehman or equivalent. I smell blood. Bid a mil. (Ssshhh! I told you to keep it down!)

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:39 PM in response to Condo of the Day: 30 Main Street Loft

Not a bad Obama image. Not bad at all.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:23 PM in response to Wednesday Links

"New York market slated to be among first to bounce back, report says."

Would you like to buy the Brooklyn Bridge from me?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:18 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

Not feeling those walls.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:09 PM in response to Crown Heights 1BR Goes for 15% Below Ask

What's wrong with boxy? You prefer the caboose layout that brownstones offer (the biggest drawback IMHO).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 2:04 PM in response to Condo of the Day: 30 Main Street Loft

Yup, a mil and a half. That's what I guessed. There's something about Dumbo and that's a fly ass crib. But FSBO reeks of desperation. A bid of 1M might stick (Ssshhhh! I think I hear the owner lurking in this thread).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 1:56 PM in response to Condo of the Day: 30 Main Street Loft

It's 3rd St. 2.6 was a deal. It'll fly for 3.2.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 22, 2008 1:49 PM in response to House of the Day: 532 3rd Street

Comps are equivalent to stock prices. Whether you buy with cash or on margin is immaterial. You still stand to lose in a falling market. Syrain Jews did not become wealthy by overpaying for real estate.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 1:31 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

sebb, please read some RE history. The period for the boom/bust cycle is typically 20 years. Significant price drops lag by years after the market turns (slow-motion train wreck). I don't want you to get hurt, baby.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 1:23 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Killer width and locale. I predicted between 5 and 6 before I saw the 7.3 figure. Bzzzzz!!! Sticker shock!

Nice fish net though. Gotta start somewhere. Definitely off limits to HOBOKENROCKS.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 1:15 PM in response to House of the Day: 22 Remsen Street

But weathering the storm will mean ABSORBING losses. Absorbing losses still means TAKING losses. That will absolutely affect Gravesend comps in some negative fasion.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 1:11 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Good news. I'll be vulturing for bargain 2-year leases on one of these luxury puppies as this trend spreads to Fort Greene and Clinton Hill.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 12:59 PM in response to Tough Times at Outer-Burg Scarano and Karl

"a great deal of wealth not dependent on banking, the stock market etc. etc."

No such thing. One economic pie (global, national, regional, local, you name it) from which we fight over slices.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 12:53 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Nice locations for those Park Slope closings. Parking spot for the co-op (sweet!).

From comments in the 566 10th Street Open House Pick link back in May:

"NYTIMES MAY 16, 2008
The Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., delivered a guardedly optimistic message to business leaders on Friday, saying that the economy was moving toward a rebound after months of malaise.

'We are still working through housing and capital markets issues, and expect to be doing so for some time,' he said in remarks at a Washington Post conference. 'We also expect to see a faster pace of economic growth before the end of the year.'

..." - guest at May 16, 2008 2:51 PM

Then there was The What...

"Ok, is this from a guy this is worth 500 million? Oh I see, he has his finger on the financial pulse of America. I think this guy used to run Goldman Sachs, the company that just reported a 500 million lost this quarter. Ok I see, the good ole truth comes from this Administration. Like the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq." - guest (The What) at May 16, 2008 3:15 PM

Fast forward to today - the end of the year is near. Faster economic growth? After bank failures/takeovers, the disappearance/conversion of the big five IB's as we knew them (poof!), a $1T bailout and more on the way and a DOW loss of 40%, I totally believe Paulson, Bernanke and the mainstream media (including Warren Buffet), that THEY control, when they say the credit markets are recovering.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 21, 2008 12:43 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Re: 'Basement Prices for Boro Homes' [NY Daily News]

Absurd. These are not basement prices. The bottom is years in the making.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 17, 2008 1:08 PM in response to Friday Links

They got my elderly inlaw and her neighbor in Bed Stuy. Beware.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 17, 2008 12:52 PM in response to Energy Scammers Plaguing Brooklyn?

"At the same time this statement ("Everybody just partying away, oblivious about what's to come") is just not true."

You're right, wasder. I was a little over-the-top. The fact that you guys (You, Dave, Biff and others) are regulars on What's threads says something. You know (or you're at least worried about it) we're in a deep and darkening recession that might turn into a Greater Depression. I guess I was just poking fun. Like calling you underwasder. I don't REALLY wish harm on you.

Why'd you have to soften me up? Now I'm not compelled to go at you anymore.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 16, 2008 3:36 PM in response to End of the World (Or Maybe Not) Party

"But really, don't you (or What) have anything else going on in your life? Or do you really reduce everything to stock and real estate values?"

I can't speak for The What. I have a lot going on (great marriage, beautiful baby daughter, satisfying career, God's blessings, etc.). I used to be oblivious to the markets yet drawn to the allure of brownstones. But when I started shopping for a brownstone in Bed Stuy back in 2004, it didn't take me long to realize that we were in a bubble (standoffish brokers, bidding wars, shifty offer acceptances, etc.). Having took an L in Nasdaq 2000, I vowed not to participate. I could have made money but hindsight is 20/20. I expected the bubble to burst in '05 or '06. I was wondering where the hell people were getting all this money from to bid so high on all these listings. So I did a little digging and came accross a few doom and gloom blogs (thehousingbubbleblog, stock-market-crash.net, etc.) that spelled everything out for me. It was all a pyramid/ponzi/number's racket mathematically destined to fail like all other bubbles throughout history. I refused to participate. I was hellbent, and still am, on saving, waiting and striking during the fire sale.

I like true crime. I especially like true white-collar crime like scams, swindles and mutant asset bubbles. The psychology of crowds, sheep herd behavior and greed is extremely fascinating to me. It's like those MLM rallys. So that's why I became so obsessed with the markets, their history and their fraud. We never learn.

But the same can be said about you. Do you have a life outside of brownstoner? You're always here. I have a 9 to 5 and can only comment during breaks or at home where I have another 9 to 5 (raisin' the lil' crumbsnatcher, time-consuming like a 9 to 5 even with the working wife).

I'll continue to rant (now laugh because Armeggeddon is closer and closer) about the markets and RE prices until I finally purchase a brownstone for what I think it's worth, not what the Jones's are paying for them (or if I can no longer hold off wifey). Then we can talk about crown moldings, wainscotting, etc and the nabes they define. But you read a off-market comment from me every now and then. I comment about the restaurants of the days.

So you like that video, huh? Biff's get-together is very reminiscent of the end of that clip. Everybody just partying away, oblivious about what's to come. Like What says, "they don't see that bat approaching their dome piece", or something to that effect. Not saying people shouldn't get together to celebrate life day to day, but the mockery of this "End Of The World" reality (not the end per se but definitely the end of our comfortable standard of living for quite some time) invites my teasing.

Have fun tonight! I have an awards dinner to attend but I might sneak by afterwards to spy on ya'll. Describe yourselves, all of you.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 16, 2008 2:56 PM in response to End of the World (Or Maybe Not) Party

"$320,000 seems pretty reasonable"

1BR in Brooklyn's Co-op City. No way. Instant loss.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 16, 2008 1:32 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 201 Clinton Avenue

A preview of the End Of The World Party (scroll midway past Jesse Livermore's suicide).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hzN6HFqMQk&feature=related

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 16, 2008 1:25 PM in response to End of the World (Or Maybe Not) Party

Wow! They spent money to lose money. Imagine how fast and for how much it would have went if they "did the right thing" which was "do nothing".

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 16, 2008 1:19 PM in response to 45 Third Place Not Moving

Ooooohhh look! A preview of the End Of The World Party (scroll midway past Jesse Livermore's suicide).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hzN6HFqMQk&feature=related

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 16, 2008 12:28 AM in response to The real end of the world party...

Luau!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 4:28 PM in response to Closing Bell: Mmmmmmm, Pig Roast

True, zinka. It's the wife.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 2:23 PM in response to Price Cuts at the Oro

I disagree, StuyMom. Let the truth be free. It's not good news, is it?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 2:21 PM in response to Human Remains on Fort Greene Park

"Forte, Toren or Oro"

Price aside, Toren. From what I recall, the master bedrooms are insulated from all others. Ideal privacy for healthy marriages. The valet parking caps it off. And it's an SOM (a BMW of a development).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 1:38 PM in response to Price Cuts at the Oro

"I would want a neighborhood for that kind of money"

That's what's up.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 1:34 PM in response to Price Cuts at the Oro

"Someone please explain."

Contrary to it's title, the bailout is nothing more than protection money. We were successfully extorted by foreign countries who hold our bad debt that THEY, THEYYYYYYY, had placed bets on. It can be implied that we were threatened with economic warfare. Deception (the "bailout") works every time.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 1:26 PM in response to Jumbo Mortgages: How You Lookin'?

Even a far cry from Myrtle. Kinda sucks that there are some decent brownstones so close to the elevated BQE. Imagine the spike in value if some kind of Brooklyn Heights modification was done to the BQE and the Navy Yard furthered it's reinvention. Of course that's at least a 25 year foresight.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 1:10 PM in response to Foreclosures of the Week

A hang?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 11:15 AM in response to Nets' Move to BK Not a Slam Dunk

"Forte has gone rental"

The jig is up. There's gonna be a lot of cheap luxury apartments to choose from over the coming years (especially with 2-year lease negotiations). A nice way to wait out the implosion.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 10:57 AM in response to Price Cuts at the Oro

"think this will be enough to get it moving?"

No, and neither do you. Sandpaper will not get it done. They need to adjust to the New World Order.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 15, 2008 10:49 AM in response to Price Cuts at the Oro

ROTMFFLMMFAO!!!

Brilliant.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 5:18 PM in response to Did someone say "Newark Nets"?

sebb vs what. What a face off that would be.

sebb - I dare you to venture over into what's latest forum and start something.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 5:16 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

...oh, yet unborn. Oh well...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 3:56 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

"...the new baby coming down the pike forced my hand this summer..."

Did he/she come out at a high velocity? Poor wife. Ouch!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 3:55 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

If you got a deal (25 to 50 percent below comps), wasder, that's one thing. I was more responding to "if you paid anywhere close to top market value".

But hey, if you have money leftover to spare, you can still profit from this crash we're in. Resales are dead and will be for some time. The next time we get appreciation it will probably be in line with long term inflation, hence really flat. There will be money to be made in rental properties though. Brownstones, condos and large buildings.

That's the thing. Owners who are in it for the long haul and can remain solvent should be bearish on the market, not bullish. They can bottom feed on additional holdings at the fire sale.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 2:26 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

"DOW8000SP800 :You really need to look at what the Feds did today and have been doing if you think they will let the economy fail you are mistaken this is the USA not Argentina.

I looked. They're buying banks with our W2 forms. What they've been doing is implementing bailout after bailout to no avail. Nationalizing our banks after persistently denying a housing bubble, contagion and recession does nothing to immediately restore confidence and trust.

You need to read that piece I linked you. But it is different this time. It's worse.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 2:11 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

...Oh man, wasder. I didn't mean to jinks you. I'm just saying that this was a once-in-a-lifetime boom/bust. Subsequent booms/busts for the rest of our generation will not compare. Never say never but you get my point.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 1:58 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

"...you will have to wait quite some time to see prices rebound to that level."

You'll die first. Don't forget to adjust for deflation.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 1:56 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

Sebb: Did you read this?

http://njrereport.com/80sbubble.htm

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 1:23 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

I hear ya, new2hood. The entitlement is mystifying.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 12:24 PM in response to Tuesday Links

"You need to look further out to see any significant price drops."

There are no significant price drops yet, anywhere. We're just getting started. The home price effects of this deepening and darkening recession will lag by years. You'll see.

Nowhere is immune.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 12:20 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

I agree that inventory is tight, sebb. But, price movement lags economic health. The collapse is not a one-week or one-month or one-quarter event. It is a process on its own schedule. Defaults, unemployment, divorces (rampant tendency during recessions) and relocations are on a long term rise. Pressured and forced sales will dump properties and increase inventory significantly over time.

Taking snapshots is useless. Keep the cameras rolling.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 12:13 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

I'm "crazy". These transactions and prices will not fall on a dime but they are unsustainable.

First, RE lags. It took a few years for the easy credit policy to inflate the housing bubble. It will take a few years for easy credit contraction to fully deflate prices.

Second, rather than some other sector(s) of the economy driving home price appreciation, it was the other way around. Home price appreciation drove all other sectors. Take that away, what's left?

Last, fear mirrors greed and history repeats. Price bottoms are always preceded by the consensus that "real estate is a bad investment". Then the market overshoots towards the downside. We're far from that stage.

I'm "crazy".

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 12:04 PM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales: Closing Time at One BBP

...fixer-upper brownstone that is.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 11:39 AM in response to Is it me or is this priced a little high?

A lot high. That gets you a fixer-upper on that same block. And then you have to factor in the delayed but inevitable price collapse of all NYC property (over the next few years). Don't be fooled by yesterday's sucker's rally on Wall St. If you're not looking for a bottom-of-the-market price, bid $1M and you'll probably get some action (if you're pre-approved/committed).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 11:39 AM in response to Is it me or is this priced a little high?

"...would you ever consider a house w this history?"

Yes but priced accordingly. Have a reputable structural engineer assess the situation and estimate the cost for repair. It's a buyer's market so double that estimate and deduct from the price you would pay without the damage. The cost of an engineer is a drop in the bucket compared to overlooking the overall cost.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 14, 2008 6:01 AM in response to question for the 'house doctors'

"Termites perhaps?"

Water infiltration.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 1:33 PM in response to The last hurrah..

s h a l l
e a t
b a d
b u y

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 1:27 PM in response to Dead Cat Bounce or the Bottom?

...oh, Mish.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 10:47 AM in response to The last hurrah..

Man, where do you get these cartoons from? Off the chain.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 10:46 AM in response to The last hurrah..

Boing...boing...splat!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 10:27 AM in response to Dead Cat Bounce or the Bottom?

I say go for it. I have the same ambitions.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 10, 2008 3:45 PM in response to considering open floor plan for our place

"PDT, maybe the buyers would have saved a little if they had waited, but you overlook the fact that getting a mortgage in today's environment is a heck of a lot tougher now than it was even six months ago and it was tough then."

You overlook the likelihood that prices will adjust to that reality and thus cancel out that factor completely.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 10, 2008 2:33 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

A la Russia and Iceland, pierre. By mid-day?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 10, 2008 10:42 AM in response to Quote of the Day

1929 Redux

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 10, 2008 10:34 AM in response to Dow Status Check

Your handle and target nabe don't seem to go together, HOBOKENROCKS. You seem like a spunky guy. Why wealthy but boring Brooklyn Heights? You seem more like a Fort Greene kinda guy.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 10, 2008 10:20 AM in response to Banks Putting the Squeeze on Jumbo Loan Borrowers

Re: Dire Straits Diary [NY Post]

I guess in New York they're up but I hear elsewhere that car repo's are down because dealers have a better shot at banking on a payment turn-around than reselling for a bigger loss (or reselling at all). Interesting.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 10, 2008 10:12 AM in response to Friday Links

Yo' What, you are retarded for filing these threads under 'Alarm'. When I clicked on that shit and saw all those other threads literally regarding alarm and security systems and then saw your doom/gloom threads among them, I damn near fell out of my chair. You are the George Carlin of this RE shit. For real!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 5:45 PM in response to Don't worry be happy...

"[Insert acronym here.]"

ROTFLMMFAO.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 5:35 PM in response to Dow Closes Down 679 Points

I think the NYSE will be padlocked tomorrow.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 5:31 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"The question is: as a prospective buyer, how do you know when the market's bottomed?"

The answer is: When the year over year change of the New York S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index http://tinyurl.com/3x5p34 approaches zero. That is, when it permanently goes from "the red" (negative) to "the green" (positive). The converse is true for the top.

I tested this theory for the last top (9/88) and last bottom (4/91). The YOY through zero lagged by only 5 months in the former case and by only 9 months in the latter case. Not bad for the very slow speed of real estate price changes.

And for those of you who think this index is irrelevant to Brownstone Brooklyn TM, it was 72.29 (Trough) on 4/91 and 215.83 (Peak) on 6/06. That's a 200% increase. A tripling if you will. Sound familiar?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 5:21 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"QOMD?
quote of my day?"

Yeah.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 3:05 PM in response to Average Prices Up in BK, Inventory Down

lechacal at October 9, 2008 1:40 PM = QOMD

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 2:14 PM in response to Average Prices Up in BK, Inventory Down

I figured a gross comp of 2.5, 11217. But the risk factor I cited (see yesterday's QOTD) would be about a 20% ding.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 2:06 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 50 Sterling Place

IMO, single floor-throughs do not make good browndos and brown-ops. Larger buildings, old or new, offer far more superior layouts.

If you're going to condo or co-op your brownstone, go duplex over duplex. That's where the advantage is.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 1:50 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 50 Sterling Place

"What do you think this will ultimately sell for?"

No more than $500K if bought soon (1/4 of a full brownstone comp of $2M which includes a co-op risk factor). $350K if it lingers (what a bath that would be).

Nice location but not a true 2-BR. 7'2 x 12'8 aint slicin' it. More like 1.5-BR.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 1:41 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 50 Sterling Place

"along with Fort Greene's Forté"

I knew the lack of lights turned on at night spelled trouble. Rents are about to take a nosedive.

Asking sale prices mean nothing right now. The lowball rules the day. Rents will suffer a similar fate.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 11:30 AM in response to Rent-to-Own on the Rise

"We thought prices were starting to come down..."

You thought right. Don't fall for the spin.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 9, 2008 11:13 AM in response to Average Prices Up in BK, Inventory Down

"Particularly vulnerable are the small, three-and-four unit coops"

Read browndos and brown-ops. Better do mark-to-market accounting on your fellow share-holders.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 4:52 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"Defaults like this happened all over the City in the 1930's"

Quote of the quote of the day. 1930's = The Great Depression. A true story very much in vogue right now.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 4:47 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"Wow, I am amazed that brownstones are selling for over a million in Clinton Hill just two blocks away."

That was during the dream. BEEP...BEEP...BEEP...!!! (stop pressing snooze, buyers)

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 4:41 PM in response to A Brownstone for $272,000?

"I doubt seriously that houses of this size in Stuy Heights are going to go anywhere near this low"

In absolute terms, no. This low fell from a high that was nowhere near those of Stuy Heights.

In percentage terms, yes. The average Bed Stuy peak for a brownstone this size (only 3 stories) was probably $500K. Comps like the one above would make it half off. Four-story Stuy Heights brownstones will go from about $1.5M (Clinton Hill prices) to $750K. Again, half off.

One boom, one bust. No decoupling.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 4:38 PM in response to A Brownstone for $272,000?

Can somebody please fix the needle? Nowhere is immune, wasder. Nowhere will be spared. Bed Stuy proper, Stuy Heights, you name it, everything will go down in tandem (percentage-wise, give or take a few negligible points). They sure as hell went up in tandem. The difference between hoods was already priced in before the boom took off (of course SH will remain more expensive than BSP). We are going back to 2003 or worse (never sleep on the overshoot).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 3:08 PM in response to A Brownstone for $272,000?

Did that Two Trees gut on St. James go into contract?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 2:42 PM in response to Wednesday Links

How 'bout a Part Duece for the sales contract?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 2:06 PM in response to You Break, You Pay (the Lease, the Rent)

Seller's just ahead of all others. This is where Bed Stuy prices are headed, back to 2003. The DOW's almost there. Housing lags. Wall St's on sabbatical.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 2:04 PM in response to A Brownstone for $272,000?

...Blood!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 9:54 AM in response to Attendence Falls at Brooklyn Open Houses

Asking prices are dead. Low balls, credit scores and solvencies are the new mantra.

What's that smell?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 9:54 AM in response to Attendence Falls at Brooklyn Open Houses

Nice renderings. I wish we did get those Autumn reds. This is gonna be hot.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 8, 2008 9:46 AM in response to The French Win Grand Army Plaza People's Prize

Wow! This growing trend is becoming a complete mess. But it's the opposite of sellers playing their dirty tricks during the good ole days when higher bids came in at the 11th hour. The chickens are home. It's a low-ballers market. You got the drop on them, so it appears. Lawyers, speak up!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 7, 2008 1:47 PM in response to Re-Negotiate a Contract?

...Case-Shiller YOY that is.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 6, 2008 2:40 PM in response to Price Cuts at Be@Schermerhorn

"Brooklyn Bargains?"

Nope. Brooklyn reality. Price cut[ting]. It's dynamic, baby! Keep the cameras rolling.

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