"Fellas--I didn't say we weren't in for a world of hurt I just said the actual arc of NYC in this graphic looks downright reasonable compared to Miami or Phoenix."

Look both ways before crossing the street.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at April 1, 2009 10:15 AM in response to Case-Shiller Continues to Tank

I agree wholeheartedly with BHO.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at April 1, 2009 10:11 AM in response to Case-Shiller Continues to Tank

I'm right here, pierre. Click me and peep my history.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at March 13, 2009 12:21 AM in response to House of the Day: 557 7th Street

"DOW/25 to 50: What's up with the new moniker? I suppose it is the fact that your first name goal has been "accomplished?" "

Yeah, DOW was getting boring now that it has arrived. 25 to 50 (% off brownstones and apartments) is my new call.

Whoops, logged in incorrectly. Gotta get used to this new handle.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 26, 2008 10:34 AM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

"Are you actually in the market for a house? I guess you made some money shorting."

Yup, in the market for a browstone. Nope, didn't short (dangerous game). My DOW 8000 was more of a prediction for the housing market. I wasn't in the markets until now. Huge long term opportunities in stocks. Just have to pick the right ones.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 26, 2008 10:28 AM in response to Last Week's Biggest Sales

Only because my wife has the desert eagle cocked at my temple, was'. I have to compromise and become an asshat. Damn nesting instincts. Got a spare wetsuit?

Oh well, Bed Stuy is mine when this shit bottoms out.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:47 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Nice bedtime story, ROTW. I still have a flyer from 1998 that shows brownstones (RENOVATED!!!) in Park Slope, Fort Greene, Boreum Hill, etc. going for 1/2 a mil. One day I'll post it on this forum.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:40 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

That was probably the first time I even typed "Long Island" on this blog, was'.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:31 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

"I'm lovin' your comically inept attempt to sound street DOW."

Damn! Okay, you've exposed me. I'm certified cornball.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:29 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Naw, was. The credits at the end say...

http://longislandbubble.com/

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:26 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

The Walk [away from mortgage]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=103iyJFFg2A

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:21 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Naw, I'm a change it to "25 to 50 percent DROP". Stocks are done. Brownstones are next up at bat and I'm Mariano Rivera.

I'm lovin' this shit.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:17 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Van Halen anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 21, 2008 12:03 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.

Remove the asking price and state "MAKE OFFER".

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 5:28 PM in response to Advice for a Freaked Out Apartment Seller

Guys,

May I change my handle?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 4:08 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

"Most of my posts are useful. All of them are intelligent, witty and on topic."

Toot toooooooooot!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 4:05 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

Thanks, DIBS. Finally something useful.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 2:40 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

"I have already started buying actual gold..."

How? How do you store it?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 2:08 PM in response to Who Says There's No Credit!

"Suicide prevention.."

LOL

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 12:41 PM in response to Thursday Links

"Who'd have thought DOW8000 was too optimisitc a moniker?"

Me. I knew housing created the floor in 2003. Nasdaq's demise was supposed to take us lower. But I thought, ahhh, another bubble (alternative fuels?) would restart the cycle. Uh oh! Where's that next bubble?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 9:53 AM in response to Thursday Links

I don't think 40 stories is intrusive for a waterfront. Beats no man's land.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 20, 2008 9:38 AM in response to 40 Stories on the Greenpoint Waterfront?

Underhill.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 11:37 PM in response to Are people scared of Washington Ave?

"bad for local property values"

Perspective.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 4:15 PM in response to Saying No to House of D

I say yes. It's a Brooklyn landmark. How dare you? D-Block!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 4:14 PM in response to Saying No to House of D

Tip of the iceberg. Going forward, opportunities like this will come a dime a dozen. So rents will drop significantly until sale prices do. Developers/bagholders will rent out and hope for a recovery and then dump and cut losses when reality sets in. Good time to be a renter or a buyer.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 3:38 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"Or both."

2nd runner up.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 2:29 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"$5,500, quite a bit less than it would cost to carry a purchase of a $1,590,000"

How much less? Would somebody please do the math. I'm lazy (or incompetent).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 2:11 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"then it's not a good deal. price is completely set by supply and demand - there is no abstract value to real estate."

QOTD

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 19, 2008 2:09 PM in response to Rental of the Day: 383 Carlton Avenue

"Just look at where the foreclosures are happening..."

The boom started from the good areas and worked its way to the bad ones. The bust will do the reverse. It's a boomerang.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 18, 2008 5:12 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Good things come to those who wait. RE is slow. We're just coming off the top. It's not the stock market. You expect 25% price drops within 24 hours? 30 days? 1 quarter? Keep the cameras rolling. We're nowhere near the end of the shoot. When the bear finally says "it's a wrap" (2 years, 3 years, 5 years from now???), play it back in fast motion and indeed you will see a catastrophic crash (all 'hoods).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 18, 2008 5:11 PM in response to Quote of the Day

Joist,

Your reference was funny.

What I said next should have went on it's own line. I wanted to know the % units sold so far.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 10:15 PM in response to Streetlevel: Novo's Retail Tenant Appears

"I would ask the broker to tell me what she thinks the price would be without those tenants, and in that location."

That, my friend, would be a damn good question.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 3:36 PM in response to HOTD: 306 Washington Avenue, Two Price Cuts Later

See me @ 11:16, PropJoe. Correcting my casting error (Departed).

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 3:06 PM in response to Brooklyn Is the New Hollywood

"'institutional' vibe"

That's funny. How 'bout some residential tenants? What's the score now?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 3:02 PM in response to Streetlevel: Novo's Retail Tenant Appears

And rents are dropping too. There was an article about Manhattan being a renter's market now (but we got Hollywood now so I don't know about Brooklyn). I'll link it later unless someone else can. There's nothing like a vacant delivery.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 2:15 PM in response to HOTD: 306 Washington Avenue, Two Price Cuts Later

"I challenge anyone to find a brownstone with this much original detail where you can live in a 1400 sqft owners duplex with a giant yard for a purchase price of $1.9 Million and income of $4200."

Give me a few months.

"...undervalued rents that will continue to go up every year or 2 years when tenants renew, and watch my income grow every year..."

It's a pipe dream. Rent stabilized tenants never move. That's why they're there now. That's why this place isn't moving neither.

You're very HOT though! I know the face and bod that comes with that name.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 2:09 PM in response to HOTD: 306 Washington Avenue, Two Price Cuts Later

Excuse me, Baldwin and Damon.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 12:53 PM in response to Brooklyn Is the New Hollywood

Williamsburg Bridge as GWB (American Gangster). Brooklyn Armory in Bed Stuy as Boston warehouse (Departed. Also Bronx Golf Center near Co-op City, scene with Baldwin and DiCaprio).

Hollyhood!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 11:16 AM in response to Brooklyn Is the New Hollywood

I have a better strategy. Swallow reality and accept your highest qualified bid.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 10:07 AM in response to Wanna Unload Your Property? Sell It Yourself

Apple vs Orange

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 17, 2008 10:05 AM in response to Park Slope Can't Measure Up to Marine Park

"Don't you mean to say that they may drop up to 50% over the short run and then go up but never up to the 2008 real dollar equivalent?"

No, not never, BrooklynGreene. Just not before we die.

"But it seems to me looking at the graphs comparing Brooklyn to other areas of the country, we simply did not have as much of an increase in prices so we should see less of a collapse, no? I’d love your take, Dow."

Yes, I definitely expect less of a collapse for the reason you state. I was in Northern California recently and someone told me of 70% nominal decreases in some of the outlying areas. Even in L.A. they're seeing 40% nominal drops. Yet still, no bottom in sight. For Brooklyn and all of NYC, I expect only a 25 to 50 percent nominal hit.

But BG, we're flirting with an economic depression. Home prices can drop so low that they become irrelevant because canned food becomes more important. The 60's, 70's and 80's offer no insight. I don't think the consensus realizes how bad it is out there. I don't think I realize it.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 15, 2008 2:18 AM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"The value of rare property...will not simply oscillate on either side of its historic inflation adjusted mean."

Why not, Aussie? The following graph "based on sale prices of standard existing houses, not new construction" shows just that.

http://tinyurl.com/g9vf4

That graph undoubtably includes rare property. Brownstones increased in value at the same rate as everything else. So, yes, you pay a premium for an antique. But that was already priced in before the bubble was blown.

"Over time there are more people with money and less rare properties and the curve is a steady rise."

I agree with that because just like the Mona Lisa, an original Picasso or an original Keith Herring, brownstones will become more and more rare over time. But not fast enough for us to see 2007 prices in 2007 dollars before we check out. It'll take a lot more time before they become Picassos. All the brownstones in Bed Stuy would have to be renovated before that happens. We saw 200% nominal increases because of cheap/easy credit, not rarity. Whatever rarity existed was already priced in before the boom.

"Look at West Village brownstones. In 1995 they were worth more than their inflation adjusted value in 1975 and in 1975 worth more than in 1955. They became progressively more desirable and rarer."

Those real increases paled in comparison to those of the recent past which were driven by cheap/easy credit unprecedented since the roaring 20's. When will we see this funny money again? 2090?

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 15, 2008 1:56 AM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Nothing, boroughbred. But 10% would be welcome compared to what usually happens. But overruns were there during the market frenzy and they'll be there when the market finishes tanking. So really, they cancel out. Contract change orders are the name of the game for contractors.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 5:01 PM in response to The Future of Construction Costs?

No way my screen name affects the stock market, FLH. It's simply a derivation of the understanding that the economy was driven by home price appreciation which was fueled by cheap easy credit that started in 2003 when the DJIA was at 8,000 and the S&P 500 at almost 800.

Yeah, I cheered yesterday. I'm all bear. The lower the DOW goes, the more my prediction about home prices will hit bullseye or better (for us if my wife and I stay employed). I have no idea where it'll go from here and I'm not gonna even try to call it.

Good luck.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:56 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Just a typo, FLH. Point remains.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:22 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"I bought a house in PLG a year ago..."

[no comment]

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:20 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"but I would be careful of huge price cuts as these are the companies that disapear"

I agree. It has to be a comprehensive, accross-the-board industry price cut. Renovations and builds are better off postponed.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:12 PM in response to Quote of the Day

"...there are only so many brownstones and victorian era homes around in Brooklyn and certainly only so many of them that are on top of Prospect Park, the Brooklyn Botanic Garden and the Brooklyn Museum."

You're referring to a number. That number is rising due to foreclosures, relocations and probably divorces (inverse relationship with recessions). The other number, qualified buyers who can pay 2008 prices, is dropping due to layoffs, stock market hits, cruncy credit, lower appraisals and sub-700 credit scores.

"...highly unlikely that Lincoln Rd will be flipped for a handsome profit in the next few years...10 years from now they will be sitting on a property that is considered much more prime then than it is now."

Possibly, and hopefully, but probably for considerably less than $1.75M in 2008 dollars.

25 to 50 percent down from peak comps...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 4:06 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Japanese Economy for America.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 2:19 PM in response to Streetlevel: Japanese Restaurant for Smith Street

"To the extent that the owners are planning on being there for the long haul, I think it will prove to be a good investment."

Think again. Once in a lifetime boom/bust. We'll see subsequent booms before we die but not like that of the recent past. We will never see 2008 prices in 2008 dollars again before Judgement Day. Unless of course you're talking about an emotional investment.

25 to 50 percent down from peak comps...

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 14, 2008 2:18 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Alternative energy sources are, I think,
and there is that direction which will deduce the world from crisis.
The epoch of oil and gas monopolies will end.
______________________________
http://www.etrader.ie
http://www.accesswaste.com

Posted by: terry3111 at September 22, 2009 4:28 AM in response to This is what a crash looks like.