"I passed by here last Friday. If its two thirds rented out then about 85% of those renting must have some religious objection to using electric lights after nightfall based on what I saw." - dittoburg

67% rented at those starting asks is 100% bullshit until proven innocent.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 20, 2009 1:45 PM in response to Viridian Two-Thirds Rented

Per streeteasy,

1 recorded, 6 in contract, 1 active. Wake me when all are recorded.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 20, 2009 1:31 PM in response to 868 Metropolitan Sells Out in Less Than Two Months

"Imagine getting killed by a G-train. You'd have to be on the tracks for a long time."

That's not funny, dittoburg. So what if I laughed.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 20, 2009 1:25 PM in response to Friday Links

Knockoffs. Don't have to trek to Canal.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 20, 2009 1:20 PM in response to Huh? Benetton for Bed Stuy Stretch of Bedford Avenue

"Therefore, there's no Six Months Later post to run today!"

OH YES THERE IS!!!

Carroll Gardens ***SOLD FOR $1,125,000 ON 8/15/09***
396 Sackett Street
Brown Harris Stevens
Sunday 3-5
$2,375,000
GMAP P*Shark

Fort Greene ***SOLD FOR $499,999 ON 9/21/09***
112 Vanderbilt Avenue
Corcoran
Sunday 3-4:30
$995,000
GMAP P*Shark

South Slope ***SOLD FOR $475,560 ON 7/3/09***
320 15th Street
Warren Lewis
Sunday 3-4:30
$965,000
GMAP P*Shark

Bedford Stuyvesant ***SOLD FOR $325,695 ON 9/16/09***
747 Hancock Street
Brown Harris Stevens
Saturday 11-1
$699,000
GMAP P*Shark

Comment: Fire Sale! Half Off! RE only goes down!

JUST KIDDING. THE SALE INFORMATION ABOVE IS FICTIONAL. (in my wildest dreams, right haters?)

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 20, 2009 1:15 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Clinton Hill Coop 2BR's are fundamentally worth no more than $250K. No way this rents for $3,825/mo. A single guy/gal well into six figs, or a couple making 60k a piece, will have much better options for $459K going forward. You don't even get an additional bathroom.

FHA Ponzi sale.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 19, 2009 3:03 PM in response to Brooklyn Sales: Under a Million

"All of which may explain why the price was just reduced after only a month on the market..."

One month of a collapsing market. The photos have little to do with it.

The half-a-million-income crowd aint lookin' to live here and you aint collectin' twelve-and-a-half grand in rent here.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 19, 2009 2:51 PM in response to House of the Day: 540 Bergen Street

"Apples to oranges, BHO."

Maybe so on this one, slopefarm. But both fruits are generally off -20% +/-. Where NYCS goes...

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 19, 2009 11:50 AM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

-19% off the brownstone belt peak (arguably the seller's purchase price). Consistent with the NY Case-Shiller index as most sales discussed here. Where the index goes, Brownstone Brooklyn TM will follow.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 19, 2009 11:23 AM in response to 150 Bond Finally Sells—For a Loss

Now that's a hot photo!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 4:53 PM in response to Wednesday Blogwrap

Future
Hosed
Asshats

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 3:37 PM in response to A Few More Sales Trickle In at BellTel

"A guy named Vinnie does hip hop gear? Who woulda thunk it?"

Naughty By Nature. "Hip Hop hurraaay...hoeeee..."

"...someone tried to rob them at gunpoint and they whipped out their own gun to chase them off just to be busted for an unregistered firearm, D'oh!"

Don't matter. Their gangsta is now respected!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 3:33 PM in response to Streetlevel: Vinnie's Styles Opening New Store on Flatbush

B r o o k l y n

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 3:28 PM in response to Streetlevel: Vinnie's Styles Opening New Store on Flatbush

"I'm guessing BHO is the guy everyone avoids at any given party."

Like the plague. Good guess.

"I'm sure they never had a sign listing rentals and sales at a real estate company before the tough times."

Way out in the middle of the sidewalk? I'm sure too.

Okay, okay - you win. I paid no mind to the protruding construction barrier.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 1:31 PM in response to Brooklyn Food & Drink Round-Up

Wow! Look at that "RENTALS & SALES" sign. Must be tough out there.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 12:03 PM in response to Brooklyn Food & Drink Round-Up

"Crime is down."

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 18, 2009 10:00 AM in response to Shooting In Boerum Hill

Here's a comparable rental asking $1,895/mo (more spacious and better located). It's been sitting for 47 days.

http://tinyurl.com/yc3k7s5

Here's another one asking $1,540/mo (1.5 baths).

http://tinyurl.com/yckea4f

One more asking $999/mo.

http://tinyurl.com/y8ofmcq

Not good for the asking price above.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 17, 2009 2:14 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 1110 Caton Avenue, #6C

Could it fetch $2,250/mo in rent?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 17, 2009 1:31 PM in response to Co-op of the Day: 1110 Caton Avenue, #6C

"according to the sales agent"

Do they show these units when it rains?

"back in May that the NV had sold 17 out of its 40 units"

17 IN CONTRACT at that time, not closed-sold out. How many of that 85% are in contract now? Zero I hope. That's the only way we will get this price collapse out of the way.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 17, 2009 11:19 AM in response to NV Now 85% Sold

That's fucked up. Disclose your shit.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 17, 2009 10:21 AM in response to Corcoran Found Negligent in Park Slope Condo Sale

I stand corrected, lucybb. But, 925k/0.75 = $1,233,333. There's nowhere in Brooklyn you can pay only $1,233,333 for a brownstone and get $1,233,333/(10 x 12) = $10,278/mo in total rent and where your typical owner earns $1,233,333/3 = $411,111/mo in rental and/or job income. That price has to drop proportional to prevailing rents (downward moving target) and median household income (downward moving target). For South Slope, Clinton Hill or Prospect Lefferts Gardens, the areas $1,233,333 can afford, rents cap at about $1,500/mo/floor (and falling), and median homeowner household income tops out at about $250K/yr (very conservative!). That puts fundamental prices there in the range of $720K to $750K, a 40% drop and half off peak. But only a 25% further drop would wipe out your downpayment. Not overleveraged but very risky. Good luck.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 11:12 PM in response to Extension of Higher Conforming Loan Limits a Boost?

"But in some places real estate appreciates a lot faster than inflation. Isn't brownstone Brooklyn over the past 30 or so years one of those places, even excepting recent bubble?"

No, not before the recent bubble.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 4:07 PM in response to Checking In On the Red Hook Co-ops

"once prices drop, they'll go up again"

With historic average inflation for decades to come. Hence flat in real terms.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 3:35 PM in response to Extension of Higher Conforming Loan Limits a Boost?

Exhibit A:

"annual income of around 150k--to purchase a multifamily brownstone in Brooklyn with two rental apartments [as much as $954k with min 3% down], resulting in a much lower monthly nut than if we were trying to buy a 2 bedroom condo or coop"

Way over leveraged.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 3:32 PM in response to Extension of Higher Conforming Loan Limits a Boost?

"What is the raised ceiling for NYC 2- and 3-family houses...or are they not allowed the higher lending amounts?"

That latter. Kerboom!

"Anyway, what kind of boost do people think this is/will give to Brownstone Brooklyn's current sale prices?"

Oh, a big one. But not in the direction that many want.

"Honestly, does someone out there have any real analysis?"

Half off is as real as it gets, baby! $729K brownstone cap. The belt average is about twice that.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 2:59 PM in response to Extension of Higher Conforming Loan Limits a Boost?

"691 St. Johns just went for $815,000 in late September. Same block, similar house."

That's about right.

$696,104/0.85 (typical 15% widget undercut) = $819,000.

Charles Ponzi will take another victim.

Price/(10 x annual rent) = $7,917/mo
Price/(3 x annual income including rental) = $317,000/yr

Sure, people collect and earn this much in Crown Heights.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 2:52 PM in response to House of the Day: 685 St. Johns Place

Yeah, Nomi. Booms and busts create "noise" in data but over time, everything reverts back to mean. The mean for RE "commodities" is average historic inflation, 4%. That puts these two and three bedroom apartments, in 1972 dollars, at $89K and $120K, respectively. You know and I know that nobody was paying that much anywhere in Brooklyn, let alone Red Hook. Hell, those were brownstone prices.

There are factors such as the so-called "Giuliani Clean-up" and "Urbanization". But the levered up Ponzi paper equity still clogged up in prices more than cancels out these factors. Peak comps can run but they can't hide. Market fundamentals has the drop on them.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 1:15 PM in response to Checking In On the Red Hook Co-ops

"Why not compare with the price some guy down the hall paid in 1972?"

Do it. After inflation, it'd still be half off or less. When was the last time RE tripled over a decade?

"What's so legitimate about those pre-boom prices? Why aren't THEY too high?"

20% down, lower required debt:income ratio, 3 x income and 10 x annual rent. Nobody-turned-down credit deaded all of that.

How do these "market rate" prices make any sense? Where's the nearest subway?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 12:22 PM in response to Checking In On the Red Hook Co-ops

"In 5 years no one will remember who Madoff was."

You mean, Ponzi. Madoff is the new Ponzi. But, in consideration of what wasder said, they'll probably misspell it as 'MadeOff'.

But truth be told, no one has conducted (nor is conducting) a bigger scheme than that of the Washington/"Fed", from 'hot potato' MBS's to today's carry trade.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 12:14 PM in response to Open Thread

"no one like to pay twice as much as the guy down the hall for the same apartment"

This same frame of thought should be employed market-wide with the proverbial 'guy down the hall' being the one who paid half off years before the boom during better economic times.

Market rate versus affordable. What an oxymoron.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 12:01 PM in response to Checking In On the Red Hook Co-ops

Probably $400/wk (max unemployment check?) x 52 = $21K, rjm. FHA is just as easy as the funny money handed out during the boom. Debt:income ratio leverage way out of whack. You also get to use the $8K credit as part of the downpayment. This is why they are racking up mucho defaulto. The government's/elite's desperate plea to futilly prop up a RE Ponzi scheme that is mathematically destined to collapse. Not to save homeowners but to save the big banks, their buddies. Socialism for the rich and powerful. A massive swindle.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 11:06 AM in response to Extension of Higher Conforming Loan Limits a Boost?

"The extension of the higher conforming loan limit and the home buyer tax credit 'will help our market maintain its momentum,' he said."

The downward momentum? Yeah, I agree. Everything will crash to $729K (conforming loan limit?) and below.

Obama and the FEDs continue to extend and pretend. Why this if we're in "recovery"? Another day in the life of the Greater Depression.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 10:52 AM in response to Extension of Higher Conforming Loan Limits a Boost?

Why does Fairway fresh-squeezed OJ suck so miserably. My whole morning is fucked up.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 10:46 AM in response to Open Thread

"...'I think [the state] lowballs to deter people from fighting like we have'..."

Uh...I think this would make you want to stay and fight, not deter you.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 16, 2009 10:43 AM in response to Goldstein Offered Less Than What He Paid for Condo

What college town rivals Boston?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 3:58 PM in response to Development Watch: Avalon All Glassed Up

"bho- that'd be february at the rate we're going now."

Sorry, 'dope. It aint quite that linear. We're in false-glimmer-of-hope mode right now because YOY temporarily turned up, as it did last year, but will eventually turn back down to reality, as it did last year. Perhaps C-S is incorrectly calculating out the seasonal effects. You can extrapolate on this noisy curve all you want but we're years away from the bottom. Economy's on life support. Soon the Feds/Obama Admin will have no choice but to pull the plug.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 3:57 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

"Umm, yeah, come on over. I live on the 18th floor, 32 doors down from the elevator."

LMAO! Pic above looks like a rental inventory bar chart (a beauty). Oh wait, it is! (650 units, damn!)

Rental rates seem reasonable though. Could be lower considering the finishes, low celings and lack of charm. 10 x annual rent puts the 3BR/2BA at about half a mil, half off peak comps of more charming like-sized apartments.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 3:04 PM in response to Development Watch: Avalon All Glassed Up

I'll buy at the bottom (wife permitting), when Case-Shiller YOY gets back into the green. Enjoying beautiful, spacious rental in the mean time, between time.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 2:52 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

It's a beauty! Figuratively.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 2:44 PM in response to Development Watch: Avalon All Glassed Up

"Elliman did a SPECTACULAR job on the perspective distort on the building facade"

Yeah, brokers also do tricks like this to hide narrow facades (i.e. no exterior pic). They expect you to show up, slip on a banana peel and inadvertantly sign the sales contract. Ahh, the days of buying spec and no contingencies.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 2:39 PM in response to Open House Picks

Minard,

Buy when? Randomly?

What's your score? How many properties, when bought/sold, etc? I guess you bought in the late 80's, held, looked back from now and kept a nominal score without adjusting for grand total costs and inflation. You still may be ahead but you lucked out and rode the tidal credit wave of the 00's. Try repeating it now near peak comps. You will lose. This is a once-in-a-lifetime boom/bust.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 2:30 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

"For ne thing, VIX is 23, down from 80."

Tied to government/central bank manipulated equities. Little to do with what we're talking about and the sale of 435 Waverly.

Keep pumping while others are dumping.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 2:24 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

"ANd yet you didn't describe the scenario that gets us there as I asked."

Inflation. Repricing of risk. How the hell will they go to 3%?

***Bid half of peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 1:53 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

Public service, squaredrive. (and my agenda...Ssshhhhhh!)

"I have made a great deal of money on Brooklyn real estate and I have never thought like you."

When/What did you buy/sell? What's your timeline?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 1:49 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

Mortgage rates, DIBS. 10% is not far fetched at all.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 1:31 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

Minard,

Over time, RE slowly oscillates between overvalued and undervalued. The best buy is supposed to be cheaper than renting. If you want value, you have to look at rents. You can overpay all you want. The market has not bottomed yet. When it does, buying will be cheaper than renting (not just a carrying cost comparison but considering downpayment and resale as well - appreciation from purchase).

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 1:18 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

Future pool of buyers, DIBS. Fixed 10ish % rate.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 1:06 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

"Way under ask, still listed or off market six months from now." - BHO six months ago.

Okay, maybe not WAY under ask.

"Those are tiny cuts given the six month lingering time."

Hence, "Currently listed".

"I thought the broker told me they are renting it out for now - they've tried to sell for a while now, initially at over $2mil but no dice."

DIBS, MINAR, ET EL!!! I thought 10 x Annual Rent didn't matter?!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 12:58 PM in response to Open House Picks: Six Months Later

"...i guess you can always hope for the worst, right BHO?"

I know, squaredrive. It's fucked up how I equate value with higher crime. But value is my focus. Higher crime is just a realistic aside. No matter where crime goes, cheap EZ credit and the economy that resulted are a thing of the past and it will reflect in lower and lower comps as time passes. L-shaped crash. No recovery for years. Get used to a lower standard of living.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 12:48 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction

"Which makes them affordable."

Affordable to enter the market and get your asshole handed to you months or years later when you're forced to sell after interest rates and unemployment spikes? Yeah.

Not worth debating anymore, huh?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at November 13, 2009 12:40 PM in response to Big Turnout for 437 Waverly Auction