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July 2, 2009
Housing Market - Where Are We?
Is this a +1 for the Bulls?
Quick Manhattan Snapshot: Market Pricing OUT Fear [Urban Digs]
Comments
Oh and this is obviously just his take on Manhattan only.
Posted by: 11217 at July 1, 2009 6:11 PM
Yes, but those charts are very interesting. Addirionally, they show the establishment of a trend, not just a one-time blip.
I think you should email this to Mr. B...the discussion and the charts are worthy of a separate post. Even I was surprised at the trend that looks to be in place.
Whuh???? What????? ANy intelligent comments today????
PS I got most of my trading done last night in the Asian markets so I'm pretty much at your disposal today. However, I won't be around for Friday & the rest of the weekend...out to one of the country homes.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 8:15 AM
Team Bear???? Understand what a trend looks like when you see one. This couldn't be any more obvious than the nose on your faces.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 9:54 AM
On the other hand:
- http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/nyregion/02real.html
Manhattan apartment prices fell sharply during the second quarter of 2009, as the limited number of deals struck during the darkest months of the economic downturn began to close, according to a series of market reports released Wednesday.
The number of closings fell more than 50 percent, and prices in some categories were reported down as much as 25 percent, compared with the same quarter in 2008. Sale prices were also down from those reported in the first quarter of 2009.
One report, by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property, put the average price of a Manhattan apartment in the second quarter at $1.26 million, a decline of 24 percent from the same period in 2008, and 16 percent below the previous quarter. It put the median sale price at $795,000, 19 percent below the figure in the first quarter of 2008.
Another report, by Prudential Douglas Elliman, found that the median sale price on the resale of existing apartments was down by 25.6 percent from a year earlier. The report, prepared by Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal firm, said that the number of sales was down 50.3 percent compared with the same period in 2008.
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 2, 2009 9:58 AM
I think there is quite a ways to go (measured in time, and possibly also price) before the NYC housing market correction is done.
Posted by: lechacal at July 2, 2009 10:01 AM
Dave, I think it's a little early to be calling a 'trend.' Sure, the short-term number of contracts signed are up and the inventory numbers are down (slightly). No reason to discount that.
But if you look at Urbandigs' commentary, as well as his own inventory numbers, he doesn't think this will be sustained. And contract signings alone don't account for dropping inventory. Using UD's own charts, there are still more properties being put on the market than being taken off through contract signings.
So, a number of properties are being pulled without being sold. I'd still count those as outstanding inventory.
Positive news? Yep. A trend you can depend on? I doubt it.
UD puts a lot of weight for May-June on increased 'confidence' on both the buy and sell sides. Today's job report (and subsequent drop in the markets) can't help but shake people's confidence in near-term recovery.
UD says it's way too early to call a bottom in Manhattan real estate. all things considered, I agree.
Posted by: JKB at July 2, 2009 10:02 AM
You are delusional
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/nyregion/02real.html
People are laid off left and right and you are stuck to your mantra
Posted by: MaplewoodGuy at July 2, 2009 10:19 AM
"Noah currently works as a Vice President with Halstead Property, LLC."
I'm sure that doesn't affect his analysis at all.
Posted by: greenwood at July 2, 2009 10:24 AM
What could have been an interesting discussion is already turning into name calling, which is a shame. An ad hominem attack is not a good substitute for intelligent thought.
My view is that the correction will not be done until NYC housing prices revert to some kind of historical affordability mean. There will presumably be the occasional wave of buyers trying to hit what they guess is the bottom of the market and therefore a buying opportunity, followed by further price declines, followed by more buying, and so on, until the historical mean is reached (or exceeded). I think the relevant wavelength is much longer than what is being pointed out in the blog 12217 has linked to.
Posted by: lechacal at July 2, 2009 10:28 AM
Just fyi, pulled this from the Dept of Labor that came out this morning:
"In May, 295 metropolitan areas reported over-the-year decreases in nonfarm payroll employment and 15 reported increases. The largest over-the-year employment decrease was recorded in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. (-254,700), followed by New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. (-232,900)..."
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.nr0.htm
Posted by: bridges at July 2, 2009 10:55 AM
Factory orders were +1.2% and expectations were for +0.9%.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 11:00 AM
Bridges,
Considering that New York and Los Angeles are the two largest cities in the country, that would make sense.
Posted by: 11217 at July 2, 2009 11:06 AM
"Factory orders were +1.2% and expectations were for +0.9%."
Great. I see some sun through them storm clouds, doesn't mean I'm going to the beach!
Posted by: JKB at July 2, 2009 11:06 AM
> My view is that the correction will not be done until NYC housing prices
> revert to some kind of historical affordability mean.
Agreed.
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 2, 2009 11:13 AM
From the AP:
"If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate would have been 16.5 percent in June, the highest on records dating to 1994."
"Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6.5 million jobs." [NB: That doesn't include the 110,000 jobs that need to be created every month just to keep up with the increase in people coming into the workforce. So add another 2 million to that figure.)
"The average work week in June fell to 33 hours, the lowest on records dating to 1964."
Posted by: greenwood at July 2, 2009 11:22 AM
From the DOL Commish' press release this morning:
"...Payroll employment declines continued to be widespread among the major industries. In June, there were large decreases in manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services. Together, these three sectors have accounted for nearly three-quarters of the jobs lost since the recession began.
Manufacturing employment fell by 136,000 in June, bringing job loss in this industry to 1.9 million since the start of the recession. Motor vehicle and parts employment declined by 27,000 over the month; since the start of the recession, the industry has lost 335,000 jobs, about one-third of its total.
Construction employment decreased by 79,000 in June. Job losses in the industry have totaled 1.3 million during this recession.
Employment in professional and business services dropped by 118,000 in June. Job losses occurred throughout the industry, including temporary help services (-38,000), services to buildings and dwellings (-17,000), and architectural and engineering services (-14,000). Since the start of the recession, professional and business services has lost 1.5 million jobs; temporary help services accounted for over half of this decline.
Posted by: bridges at July 2, 2009 11:25 AM
10,500 units of Manhattan inventory at the end of June and less than 200 contracts signed.... That's 52 months of inventory at current contracts signing levels.
Is this something for Team Bull to really cheer about?
Posted by: Colonel Steve Austin at July 2, 2009 11:59 AM
Colonel,
You seem to have a reading problem.
According to the chart I posted, there have been 91 contracts signed in the last day, 246 in the last 7 days and 1,152 in the last 30 days.
Posted by: 11217 at July 2, 2009 12:12 PM
From Yahoo:
"...The recession has taken a devastating toll on tax revenues and state finances. States had a cumulative $121 billion budget gap in crafting this year's budgets — and the gap would be even bigger without federal stimulus money, said Todd Haggerty, a research analyst at the National Conference of State Legislatures.
"You can't look to any one region that's performing better than the others," Haggerty said. "You can see Arizona and California in the west, Ohio and Illinois in the middle and Pennsylvania and North Carolina in the east..."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_state_budgets
Note especially the map embedded in the article...
Posted by: bridges at July 2, 2009 12:13 PM
Greenwood (11.22am): You're right.
And Bob Herbert in the Times the other day put the number of "under-employed" (those working less than full time but wanting full time work) at eight percent.
That means that close to 25% of the American workforce is un- or under-employed.
And New York is usually slower to pick up than the rest of the country.
A neighbor in my New York co-op just dropped his asking 10% below his first pitch, which was already 20% below the "peak." A "comp" in my building was asking 35% below "peak" when the co-op board required it be pulled from the market to preserve the building's value.
My thought: There's still time to ride the market's decline. If you have cash, hold onto it.
NOP
Posted by: NOP at July 2, 2009 12:18 PM
So a bottom in Brooklyn RE? Dave?
Posted by: Whuh at July 2, 2009 12:19 PM
Always darkest before the dawn, Whuh. Are you one of these people who thinks it'll take 20 years to get back to the peak once prices bottom???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 12:32 PM
You're wasting your time today Whuh. Dave's driving one of his "collectible" cars to one of his "residences" for the weekend.
Posted by: Meatball at July 2, 2009 12:48 PM
LOL, Meatball, I'm having a meatball sandwich right now!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 12:55 PM
So your theory, DIBS, is that suddenly the price declines are going to stop with prices now at Case-Schiller 2003 levels? What would be the impetus for the halt in the decline?
Posted by: sashae at July 2, 2009 12:57 PM
The rate of decline has slowed, sashae. That's all i was saying yesterday. First derivatives rising are positive news for the market.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 1:02 PM
Meatball....there's so much in there your eyes are brown. But welcome to the civilized discussion anyway.
Where you headed for the weekend?????
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 1:03 PM
No idea. I do know that the Naz peaked at 5000, or whatever absurd number, and on that very day some equities messiah was telling a client to Get in, get in, or forever regret it; stocks only go up; if he'd bought Cisco in 1998, etc., etc. And I don't believe we'll see 5000 in my lifetime.
I also think that every little deadcat's glimmer will bring you on here to gloat and whinge, no matter what.
I also think that the i-banks have been bailed out, and this is keeping the NYC economy afloat at the very high end. The irreplaceably nice houses will sell at small discounts for a bit. The who knows. What I do know is I'm totally uninterested at these prices, but that's just me.
Posted by: Whuh at July 2, 2009 1:03 PM
I remember when the NASDAQ bottomed in 2002 at 1,170 or so and people were saying it'd take 10 years to get back to 2,000.
It peaked at 4,700 and got back to 2,900 in 2007.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 1:11 PM
11217 did you read today's NYTimes article about continued declines in Manhattan prices? Should that be an +1 for team bear?
Remember Team Bear has been vindicated for over a year now with the massive price declines that continue all over new york.
Maybe your new argument is that the bottom is here but we are pretty sure you will be wrong in this estimation as well...no jobs means further declines dudette.
NB: we recently purchased a place here in Brooklyn at a massive discount but still know prices will keep falling.
DIBS your last post is telling of how pathetic the NASDAQ has performed but what were you trying to say?
The NASDAQ today is around 1800 which is pretty accurate of the predictions " people were saying it'd take 10 years to get back to 2,000".
Posted by: pierre de taille at July 2, 2009 1:34 PM
pierre...people were saying that in 2002 at the bottom and it reached 2,900 in 2007.
I never said the markets won't be volatile. But the 2002 doosayers, like the current environment seems full of, were wrong.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 1:40 PM
And, no, I don't believe the real estate market and the stock market move in lockstep.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 2, 2009 1:49 PM
NEWS FLASH:
Palladians coming to Bedford Stuyvesant with riches of the entire universe to buy up all the available real estate. They have run out of room on planet Xeno and are crazy about classic brownstones.
Crime is no problem for the Palladians - they have force fields. They are looking for unemployed hedge fund managers to work as handymen. Unemployment problem solved!
Posted by: DeadCatBounce at July 2, 2009 2:51 PM
David,
What kind of food is a meatball sandwich? Doesn't sound too healthful.
Well, we'll stay put for now I guess. I remember when what's-his-face (can't remember his name, but real nice guy...must be retired...or worse...at this point) at ML when I was there a good number of years ago before the NASDAQ went crazy, actually predicted the telecom/internet supergrowth...very few people believed him at that time.
Look, prices will go down more, there will be a big shake out/shake down...and we'll find ourselves picking up the pieces in 5 to 8 years.
I hope everyone who reads these pages is safe and sound and manages to survive the worst of this shake out.
Posted by: BrooklynGreene at July 2, 2009 7:37 PM
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