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June 2, 2009
Recession At An End?
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. recession that began in December 2007 may have ended in May, said John Ryding, using the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index as a guide.
Readings greater than 41.2 on a sustained basis are usually
consistent with economic expansions, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based purchasers’ group. The CHART OF THE DAY shows
May’s reading of 42.8 surpassing the horizontal red line at the 41.2 mark. The vertical lines show the end of previous recessions and beginning of expansions.
The ISM gauge “is the greenest shoot yet in the recession-
drawing-to-a-close thesis,” Ryding, chief economist at RDQ
Economics LLC in New York, said in a note to clients yesterday.
“The ISM report is a very important indicator of the cyclical
state of the economy and it tentatively suggests that May is a
plausible candidate for the recession trough.”
What’s more, two of the most forward-looking components of
the ISM index are also flashing recovery, Ryding said. The
orders index climbed to 51.1, above the 50 breakeven level for
the first time since the month before the recession started. In
addition, the measure of supplier deliveries, a component of the
Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators, gained
almost five points.
Comments
Gee Dave, you're becoming the anti-What. Are things really so rosy? FWIW, I hope you're right, as much as I hoped he was wrong.
Posted by: Bob Marvin at June 2, 2009 9:24 AM
Bob...I'm hoping Mr. B can get the chart up. It's VERY compelling.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 2, 2009 9:27 AM
"Recession At An End?"
Uh...yeah...duh. The depression has begun.
A dollar for every false glimmer of post-Lehman hope would have bought the whole block of Bainbridge between Stuyvesant and Lewis.
Come on down the aisle, DIBS. Join Team Bear. Dump SH and CC. But we're gonna stomp your ass in like the Crips. Grrrrr!
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 2, 2009 10:14 AM
BHO can never accept the facts, understand them or know how to interpret them. These are the type of people who should never get a mortgage.
The move in the market over the past three weeks has paid for my facade work four-fold. PULL YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE SAND.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 2, 2009 10:36 AM
Hahahahahaha!! What a joke! Really? Really? Not over by a long shot and to suggest otherwise should be criminal, a fraud, and gross negligence. We have experienced the first few volleys of financial WMD's and there are many more volleys to play out in the future when those debts come due. It is what it is. I see improving signs on a "permanent" level 2Q 2011. Until then, we will have many small upticks followed by a large down tick, then many small upticks then a big downtick... all the way to 2011.
Posted by: CookieCutterBrownstone at June 2, 2009 1:42 PM
Or, you could be wrong, CCB. Currently you are wrong and missing out. If you are too late or too early its the same as being wrong.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 2, 2009 2:25 PM
Probably. But I think more economic shocks are yet to come, and then the economy will plunge again. A similar pattern happened at the beginning of the Great Depression, also. As for real estate prices, I think they will stop falling at the end of this year, and then flatline for at least three more years.
Posted by: mopar at June 2, 2009 3:01 PM
"A similar pattern happened at the beginning of the Great Depression" Not sure why so many people cling to this analogy when everything was different back then.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 2, 2009 3:29 PM
I'll believe in what Bernie Maddoff says before I believe anything dave says. Dave... has an agenda for trying to keep home prices inflated because he doesn't want to lose on his purchase a be considered a fool.
Posted by: hannible at June 2, 2009 5:10 PM
I think if we were to poll everyone here, hannible, you'd get the fool award. If you think I can keep home prices inflated you're worse than a fool.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 2, 2009 6:40 PM
Funny, I was in Union Square today, the restaurants were PACKED.
I'm w DIBS, the worst is over. Ignore that at your peril. Also note existing home sales today.
Posted by: denton at June 2, 2009 6:45 PM
Oh home sales are up but that does not say home prices are up. do you know a forclosed home purchased for a few thousand dollars is considered a sale. So let them go up but at forclosed prices.
Posted by: hannible at June 2, 2009 7:45 PM
walk around lower manhattan, below 14th... it looks like a ghost town in the day, only enlivening at night when the wealthy come down to party
Posted by: eman1234 at June 2, 2009 8:23 PM
"The move in the market over the past three weeks has paid for my facade work four-fold. PULL YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE SAND."
Mental illness. PULL YOUR ASS OUT OF BED-STUY.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 2, 2009 11:14 PM
"'A similar pattern happened at the beginning of the Great Depression' Not sure why so many people cling to this analogy when everything was different back then."
Different. The single most dangerous word in asset bubbles. This is why time after time we get head faked into falling for more bubbles and losing our shirts.
"do you know a forclosed home purchased for a few thousand dollars is considered a sale"
ROTFLMMFAO!
You're outnumbered, DIBS. Denton is hanging on your nutsack so he(she?) doesn't get counted.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 2, 2009 11:24 PM
"A similar pattern happened at the beginning of the Great Depression" Not sure why so many people cling to this analogy when everything was different back then."
Oh I'm just throwing that out there as an example of what has happened in the past. Not saying we're doomed to repeat it.
Posted by: mopar at June 3, 2009 12:21 AM
"walk around lower manhattan, below 14th... it looks like a ghost town in the day, only enlivening at night when the wealthy come down to party"
Yes, everyone has moved to Williamsburg. Have you been there recently?
Posted by: mopar at June 3, 2009 12:24 AM
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