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October 23, 2008
The prefect financial storm has hit land..
For years people took great risk to become part of the Mutant Asset Bubble and now everything is falling apart. We are on the eve of the biggest financial collapse in American history.
Comments
the eve?
Posted by: CobbleHilller at October 23, 2008 8:07 AM
"the eve?"
Good Morning Cobblehiller, I'm still drinking my coffee ; ^ }. I say "the eve' because baby you haven't seen nothing yet! These day are a walk in the park compared to whats down the road!
All asset class have been taken to the woodshed. The Asshats thought they was going to escape gravity but that black hole is sucking everything down with it.
We are in a 3 week crash alert! 2000- 3000 coming off the dow and a market halt!
RIP Mutant Asset Bubble..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Cobblehiller you starting to sound like me.. LMAO!
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 8:15 AM
That is a different Cobblehiller What. The original cobblehiller doesn't capitalize or use three LLLs in hiller.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 9:18 AM
Good morning What, now take it easy with the coffee - you tend toward being a little excitable as it is!
[Hmmm, should I be hoarding coffee along with the marcaroni, mornings aren't much fun for me with out it...]
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 9:20 AM
All I can say is I hope you are wrong. So this would put the big crash just after the election. What, I know you don't vote, but does anyone else have an opinion about the correlation between who wins the White House and the DOW?
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 9:20 AM
"What, I know you don't vote, but does anyone else have an opinion about the correlation between who wins the White House and the DOW?"
It doesn't matter wasder. This whole thing is fucked fucked fucked for all of us (yeah me included). Obama is your next President and GOD help him. This may be the most important administration is the last 50 years.
People took every fucking thing for a joke but no one is laughing anymore!
Thee What
Someday this war is gonna end.
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 9:29 AM
Sorry for butting in so late in the life of What (not having followed the historical trail of predictions), but who exactly is the What's anger aimed at? Just curious, it would give me better perspective on the discussions, although I enjoy them regardless.
Posted by: cornetor at October 23, 2008 9:39 AM
cornetor: One word: Asshats.
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 9:44 AM
The What's anger is aimed at everyone who is doing better than he is. He used to bitch about overpriced real estate, until the Dow started tanking and he figured he could hit a wider target if he'd bitch about that. Now, he's relegated to the Forum section of Brownstoner because he hasn't said anything about real estate in a while, and just rehashes everything he reads here online.
Posted by: DarkStar at October 23, 2008 10:32 AM
"The What's anger is aimed at everyone who is doing better than he is."
Oh like these people..
Goldman Sachs May Slash 3,200 Jobs as Turmoil
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adwYoYnTqRNo&refer=home
"Banks worldwide are shelving deals and cutting jobs as the unprecedented turmoil in credit markets spreads and spurs concern the global economy may fall into a recession"
"He used to bitch about overpriced real estate, until the Dow started tanking and he figured he could hit a wider target if he'd bitch about that."
They are interconnected Asshat!
"Now, he's relegated to the Forum section of Brownstoner because he hasn't said anything about real estate in a while, and just rehashes everything he reads here online."
Ok I will explain this one more time. The Mutant Real Estate Bubble has burst! Talking and writing about Real Estate is so 2007. Now we are in a new phase of the meltdown called The Mutant Asset Bubble! Hey Darkshit why you are the only one trying to refute the reality that IT'S OVER!
We are facing a world wide bust! A global depression and I guess that your "investments" are going down the drain....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Hey Darkshit why don't you and you homeboy sebb sword fight each other, you fucking loser!
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 10:51 AM
im fairly certain that even if the shit really does hit the fan hardcore, that a lot of brooklyn communities will actually come together and do what human beings have been doing since the dawn of time.. surviving. not to sound all hippy dippy or anything, but come a day where i can't afford a meal i am sure there will be someone willing to share theirs in return for something i can provide. that's just how life is. giving yourself an ulcer worrying about this shit right now does nothing but make you weaker when times do actually get rough.
-rob
Posted by: PitbullNYC at October 23, 2008 11:14 AM
I hate to say it but my current charts are predicting big time meltdown. I hope I am wrong for many people will get hurt.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 11:41 AM
The What, I appreciate the photograph and links to specific stories but can someone please give me some rationale, quantifiable argument of the meltdown?
HOBOKENROCKS: I'd love to see your numbers.
I've been saving my money and holding out for prices to drop on homes and continuing to live in a crappy cheap rental - so I'd love to see some relief (but not a meltdown), but I am an analytical type who still can't be convinced of the model that supports your argument.
Posted by: Delilah at October 23, 2008 11:49 AM
On October 10th we hit a low. Soon after we had a 25 percent rally. Since then we have tried to break the top of the 25 percent rally. We have been unable to do so and the 1040 sp 500 level looks like the top. If it is we will test the lows of 830 and possibly break right thru them and down.... Hopefully we test and jump up but down is the path of least resistance. Get ready for the ride.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 11:49 AM
Rob -- Should the day come you can't afford a meal, you are welcome to my house to eat some of the rice & beans and Mac & Cheese we're hoarding.
And you can come by for coffee cobblehiller.
Rich or poor, eventually we're going to have to take care of each other.
Posted by: I_haz_TWO_toilets at October 23, 2008 11:51 AM
Yes, its a recession but not a calamity.
Posted by: Delilah at October 23, 2008 11:51 AM
look at a chart of the spx, which is sp 500 and you will see that after the lows of october 10th we made a quick 25 percent rally which has been the high of this current upward trend in the stock market. Yes I say upward trend because we are off the loWS. Now we have to test this low of 830's on the sp 500. But the upward trend looks bad, it has made lower highs since the 25 percent rally. When you get lower highs on the upward trend of this bear market you usually have not hit lows.. I hope I am wrong.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 11:56 AM
Bless your sweet heart I Haz, I'm gonna need it if I lose my damn freelance job.
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 12:13 PM
Whatless, you are still avoiding the simple fact that your original rant was about the Brooklyn real estate bubble bursting. That has still not happened. After two years of national real estate turmoil, we're doing pretty damn well, thank you. You moved on a few months ago to ranting about the "Mutant Asset Bubble" when BK real estate did not drop like a stone like you predicted. Quit riding MSNBCs coattails and admit you called it wrong. You've been trying to hitch a ride on a wave that was already rising.
Posted by: DarkStar at October 23, 2008 12:16 PM
Brookly real estate prices will get hit. It usually takes about a 6-12 months from the low of the stock market to get to the low of the real estate market. That is what happened in 1987.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 12:24 PM
Hoboken, try telling that to people in Arizona that bought their homes in 2005. Real Estate is localized, while the stock market is national and international.
Posted by: DarkStar at October 23, 2008 12:29 PM
True enought but capitulation only occurs when even the best properties get hit. We have yet to get to the capitulation faze of this down turn. Brooklyn and Manhattan will be hit last but it will be a bad hit. Take a look at gold, it is one of the last assets to get hit, and now its taking the hit. Down 30 percent from highs and down at least 20 percent in the last month.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 12:33 PM
True enought but capitulation only occurs when even the best properties get hit. We have yet to get to the capitulation faze of this down turn. Brooklyn and Manhattan will be hit last but it will be a bad hit. Take a look at gold, it is one of the last assets to get hit, and now its taking the hit. Down 30 percent from highs and down at least 20 percent in the last month.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 12:34 PM
True enought but capitulation only occurs when even the best properties get hit. We have yet to get to the capitulation faze of this down turn. Brooklyn and Manhattan will be hit last but it will be a bad hit. Take a look at gold, it is one of the last assets to get hit, and now its taking the hit. Down 30 percent from highs and down at least 20 percent in the last month.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 12:34 PM
ooops ooops , sorry
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 12:40 PM
Oy, try a little patience with the post button Hoboken, please.
Can you please speak english Hoboken, not all of us are "in the biz". Some of us are artsy-fartsy types.
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 12:40 PM
Hobokenrocks, thanks for the clarification. Still, its not a guarantee that prices will drop. I think we will see people holding off from buying though over the next several months because of the fear, which may have an impact anyway.
Posted by: Delilah at October 23, 2008 1:33 PM
"(yeah me included)"
This is an interesting admission What and a welcome one. If you realize that we are all interconnected in this mess maybe you will feel more charitable towards the people who are in a similar boat to yourself. I don't know the percentage of people on this board who had a hand in the creation of the MREB but I don't think its too high.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 1:41 PM
I haz--love that spirit. We will all have to look out for each other. Hope you can come to the next shindig.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 1:41 PM
"This is an interesting admission What and a welcome one. If you realize that we are all interconnected in this mess maybe you will feel more charitable towards the people who are in a similar boat to yourself. "
WAIT A FUCKING MINUTE!! The reason I said that I'm in the same boat is because there was innocent bystanders in this Mutant Asset Bubble and there will be more in the aftermath!
People who had nothing to do with the MAB had to Lose their apartments because fucking Josh and Megan from Ohio wanted Mommy to pay double the rent to live in "edgy" neighborhood. Or the explosion in fucking inflation from pumping hot money into the system! That Assfuck Alan Greenspream is testilying in front of CONgrees now saying "We did not know the long term effects of low interest rates". Give me a fucking break! Then families had to put up with High Gas, Condo construction,Higher taxes and cutback of services and to top it all off lying fucking leadership!!!
Wader you are a fucking delusional fucking Asshat and stop trying this "friendship shit with me, in matter of fact you just blew my fucking stack and I hope you lose everything and have to suffer with the "rest of us".
Darkshit: I know you are the last of the Asshats. You are going to look real fucking stupid...
The What (no more fucking friendly shit!!!!!!!!!!)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 2:19 PM
Real estate is NOT localized any more, as the current economic crisis shows. Fly-by-night mortgage lenders looking to make a quick buck lent to people they KNEW could not pay. The lenders didn't care, because the lenders would roll up all the mortgages and sell them as a group to another bank so the debt would be on their books. Then everyone defaulted, and the losses spread to insurance, etc., etc., then throughout the entire banking system (banks that have not yet failed are rumored to be on the brink, such as Citibank, where I am a depositor), then the entire credit market, then throughout the stock market, and is now spreading through every industry (retail, construction, auto, etc.) and the globe and the result will be many layoffs.
Either it will stop there and this will just be a very bad global recession/depression for five or ten years but life will go on as we know it OR the U.S. government, now trillions of dollars in debt, will be unable to pay back its loans and/or other governments will lose faith in our ability to pay back our loans and the result will be (maybe) that we don't get any more loans, at which point the US will be bankrupt and then you will see police and military unable to function and a total breakdown of law and order such as happened in the former Soviet Union and there will not be peace and love and sharing in Brooklyn but rather a lot of what The What has already so colorfully described from the safety of his reinforced bunker.
Actually, states such as California are already deep in the hole and I heard NY was already cutting back on police. (Not sure if that's true.)
Looking on the bright side, however, things in my neighborhood of Bushwick can't get any worse than they already were in 1977.
P.S. This is all the effect of the deregulation of the banking and credit card industries. The U.S. is the world's irresponsible teenager, spending money it doesn't have so manufacturing in China can grow.
Posted by: mopar at October 23, 2008 2:23 PM
"...neighborhood of Bushwick can't get any worse than they already were in 1977."
mopar, were you actually here in the 70s?
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 2:37 PM
Hoboken, your shit about capitulation and the best properties is almost as big of a stretch as the real estate gloom and doom that The Whatless has been spouting. Even in California, where median housing prices are down 30%, there are communites where housing prices have still increased in price in the single digits this year.
Posted by: DarkStar at October 23, 2008 2:40 PM
"Wader you are a fucking delusional fucking Asshat and stop trying this "friendship shit with me, in matter of fact you just blew my fucking stack and I hope you lose everything and have to suffer with the "rest of us"."
Ah there is the What we all know and "love." How is this my fault again? And why aren't you and I in the same boat? We both own a house we live in, within blocks of each other. We both have a lot at stake in the health of Clinton Hill as a neighborhood where regular people with regular income levels can afford to live. We both are appalled at the fact that people with absolutely no connection to the mess on Wall Street (certainly this includes me) will be adversely affected by the collapse of this house of cards. So do let me know What, how is this my fault and how am I different to you?
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 2:47 PM
Ah, the What and wasder show! Just in time to brighten the last few minutes of my online day!
(no more fucking friendly shit!!!!!!!!!!)
:(
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 3:20 PM
"Josh and Megan from Ohio"
Ah hah!
"The What" is "DieHipster" or is merely stealing his material.
See comment #8 here:
http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/23/how_come_the_l_gets_all_the_good_crap.php#reader_comments
Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 23, 2008 3:25 PM
""The What" is "DieHipster" or is merely stealing his material."
No I'm Dieasshat..
Please if you get a chance please watch the congressional hearing bullshit on c-span.
I'm just fed up with all the bullshit. Fuck evryone!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 3:33 PM
I wish I could watch C-Span at work, but they actually block video here. What are the asshats doing today?
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 3:36 PM
Hoboken, I would see the price of gold declining as a indicator that fear is falling and there is more faith in other investments.
Cobblehiller, from his posts on BS I'd say Hoboken approaches the markets from the aspect of technical analysis. That is, from studying charts and graphs that from past behavior is alleged to predict future behavior. That's different from say analyzing companies' prospects to indicate that they may or may not be undervalued. While technical analysis is sometimes controversial, everyone pays at least some attention to it. (If you've ever looked at a stock chart for various periods of time you too are guilty)
A short Wiki here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis
Hoboken, not trying to put words in your mouth, but seems fair.
Posted by: denton at October 23, 2008 3:47 PM
Hey cobblehiller--glad I could help brighten your day. Trying to figure out how I fit into What's Rogue's Gallery but whenever I ask him a reasonable question I get no answers. Will keep trying.
Snarkslope--great find. What did you lift this or is it actually you?
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 3:47 PM
Ah, very helpful, thank you denton, I'm, hmm, shall we say, somewhat technically challenged! [Uhm, will you think less of me if I tell you I have never studied a stock chart in my life?!]
Oh, but you do fit in to the Rogue's gallery just fine wasder - it just may not be the 'role' you'd hoped for!
Darn it, I have to leave now - catch you characters later!
Good work Snark!...tell bf not to worry, I will just admire you online!
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 3:57 PM
cobblehiller---what position in the rogue's gallery do you see me in?
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 4:13 PM
Cobblehiller, I was living in the SF Bay Area in the 1977, where real estate prices skyrocketed immediately after California passed Prop 13 and froze property taxes in 1978. But I have heard a great deal (and seen the photos) about the arson, blackout, and looting in Bushwick in the '60s and '70s. Whole blocks were reduced to rubble.
Wasder, we're both gentrifiers.
Posted by: mopar at October 23, 2008 4:41 PM
Mopar--I guess I am a gentrifier. Hard to say in a way because I was born here in Brooklyn. Not in Clinton Hill mind you so in that way I suppose I am a gentrifier, but still I am a native New Yorker and somebody who has lived all over Brooklyn over the years. Feels like its a stretch to call me a gentrifier, though that word has been so stretched and modified in meaning over the years that it means different things to different people. I am not against the concept of gentrification so long as it is not a Trojan horse for hardcore class warfare. The What is a homeowner in Clinton Hill/Bed Stuy. Unless you subscribe to a notion of race-based exclusivity in these neighborhoods, What is as much a gentrifier as I am.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 4:51 PM
HOBOKEN: The gold movement has me shaken -- not a good sign. I have been away from market watching (as my losess can attest) and have done nothing with any of my IRAs. However, I believe you are right. I have a feeling (a what--like premonition) that the turbulance will be short-lived and we will go into a sub-9000 DOW for some time (year or longer). I am thinking about getting out of everything on the short up-ticks now and go to cash. Buy in again down the road. I am thinking about when PEs of 8-13 were good! Where would the market be then?
That said, I think we will be in a real estate market that is 20-50% off 2008 prices within 18 months (it will take that long for the new units to come on and people to stop buying); and it will take 4-5 years to get back to where it is. Just like the last one...
Posted by: BH76 at October 23, 2008 4:58 PM
...rewind...
"Hoboken, charting is silly. If you are making decisions based on charts that are based on a history of relative normalcy, you have no real idea what the future will bring. Charting brings a false sense of control. Right now you shouldn't trust things like technical support levels any further than you can throw a piano."
....pause....
Posted by: lechacal at October 23, 2008 5:10 PM
"josh and megan" haha i love how The What tries to use the whitest/preppiest names imagineable in his gentrification rants. Although i have to laugh being that i live in brooklyn with my significant other who moved here from Ohio.
Posted by: bktycoon at October 23, 2008 5:27 PM
oops strike that last comment, i realized i actually have a buddy named Josh who just so happens to not be white. choose better ones next time WHAT
Posted by: bktycoon at October 23, 2008 5:33 PM
wasder:
"diehipster" posts regularly on curbed.com. I happened to check out Curbed today and found the "Josh and Megan" bit in comment #8 on this thread:
http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/23/how_come_the_l_gets_all_the_good_crap.php#reader_comments
Then I spotted the "Josh and Megan from Ohio" reference on this post by "The What":
"People who had nothing to do with the MAB had to Lose their apartments because fucking Josh and Megan from Ohio wanted Mommy to pay double the rent to live in 'edgy' neighborhood."
So, I reckon they are either the same person, or more likely, simply chips off the same shoulder.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 23, 2008 5:33 PM
Look you guys do what you want. I have only posted my beliefs. I have been pretty accurate on most of this thing. I have given actual numbers and wrote that we would crash after the Paulson plan was passed and we broke the 10400 tech range i suggested was important. We than blew up . I hope I am wrong I have absolutely no position in the markets at this point. I truly don't know what is going to happen. But the path of lease resistance is lower. At least for now. Hope that changes. I hear Russia and other countries look really bad. If we have an implosion in one of those countries the market goes down further...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 23, 2008 6:19 PM
Wasder, I'll have to ponder this. Gentrification isn't merely a rise in prices. It's relatively well-off people moving into a poor neighborhood, right? It's the reversal of the move to the suburbs in the '50s, '60s, and '70s.
Posted by: mopar at October 23, 2008 6:38 PM
So I'm actually here to get some advice from the What.
If things are going to get worse- what is the game plan? Try to be first in line at the food bank?
Posted by: 7andfive at October 23, 2008 6:42 PM
Whoever diehipster is, s/he is even funnier than The Burg.
Posted by: mopar at October 23, 2008 6:45 PM
Here's the New York Times' brilliant explanation today:
"This time, New York has been one of the last regions in the country to see weakness in housing. Across the country, housing helped lead the economy into recessionary conditions rather than the other way around. That’s largely because the nation actually experienced a “mortgage boom,” rather than a “housing boom,” which was brought about by a complete lapse of regulatory oversight, historically low mortgage rates and the disconnect by all parties including ratings agencies, commercial banks, investors, Wall Street and borrowers over the relationship between risk and reward."
The other expert in the story also characterizes the collapse of the exurbs as stemming from the flight TO the core cities. Well, OK, I'm misquoting. She says it stems from lower prices in the core. (Hm, seems like prices in the core didn't go down until after the exurb collapse.)
Here's the link:
http://realestateqa.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/expert-qa-a-downturn-for-new-york-real-estate/
Posted by: mopar at October 23, 2008 8:12 PM
Well Mopar, I would say that many of the great Brooklyn neighborhoods we talk about on this blogs have changed "hands" many times over the past hundred years, between differing ethnic groups, different classes, etc. Clinton Hill in my estimation has been a relatively successful example of gentrification in terms of many people staying in their homes and many others finding nice homes and welcoming neighbors. It is not perfect by any means but a neighborhood I am proud to call home. I find it both tedious and insulting to have to defend my position here to someone who would appear to have quite a bit in common with me in terms of location, age, intelligence etc.
Snarkslope--great catch. I checked out the diehipster website as well and there are definitely a bunch of thematic connections between diehipster and What when he writing with some semblance of grammatical sense. Who knows? The Josh and Megan from Ohio is either a rip off or a clue.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 8:23 PM
Oh and Mopar--to clarify this sentence (I find it both tedious and insulting to have to defend my position here to someone who would appear to have quite a bit in common with me in terms of location, age, intelligence etc) was directed at the What and not you. Should have added home-ownership.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 8:33 PM
"So I'm actually here to get some advice from the What.
If things are going to get worse- what is the game plan? Try to be first in line at the food bank?"
Well 7and5, how about those Euros huh? LMMFAO! How did anyone think a currency was going to unite Europe? Those MoFo's been trying to kill each other for centuries.
Whats the game plan? DEFLATION! Better get some dollars, they are backed by weapons of mass destruction! That's it..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Hey 7and5 you better pay for my prescriptions with the analyses I'm giving you...
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 9:46 PM
wasder: Dunno, I have no great insight. If you want to change What's mind, well, hmm, I dunno if that's possible. A certain dynamic seems to have set in, I don't know if it can change, but you never know. [shrug].
mopar: Thank you for answering my question - glad to see you're up on your Bushwick history - it wasn't 'pretty'.
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 23, 2008 10:26 PM
No chance I can change his mind cobblehiller but that's ok.
Posted by: wasder at October 23, 2008 10:57 PM
BTW I did get the "Josh and Megan" line from Diehipster.com. I will admit that!
Diehipster is a long time white New Yorker that saw his neighborhood ran over by fucking Asshats (Gee I wonder where else they went?). This site is a holla and I be LMMFAOROTMMFF!!
How REAL New Yorkers feel..
The What (Yes Wasder you are a Asshat)
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at October 23, 2008 11:15 PM
what makes me an asshat What? As opposed to just another white person?
Posted by: wasder at October 24, 2008 8:25 AM
Indeed, change happens constantly everywhere. And it has both good and bad effects. There is a fantastic book on gentrification in Clinton Hill -- maybe you've read it -- by Lance Freeman, an African American man who grew up in Harlem and is now a professor of architecture at Columbia, called "There Goes the Hood." My only criticism of the book is that it downplays the negative effects of a rise in rental prices on poor and elderly renters. (I've seen that first hand in the Bay Area.)
Posted by: mopar at October 24, 2008 9:29 AM
Dave! We've been away for a few weeks--when is Butternut aiming to open?
Posted by: housebywe at October 25, 2008 12:35 AM
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