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October 10, 2008
I told you so...
Boy don't you hate when someone says "I told you so". The same person you thought was dumber than you. You was so smart and just dismiss the warring and now you are getting murdered!
The our financial system is broken...
Comments
you nailed it.
so you still can't log in on the main page? that's very strange. you should be able to.
Posted by: brownstoner at October 10, 2008 9:28 AM
I must admit I really like the Whats POSTS...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 9:35 AM
"you nailed it."
WWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have achieved nirvana........
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 9:46 AM
Has anyone's life really changed? Is there a great depression? Does it look like the Brooklyn real estate market has come to a complete halt?
NNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
If this is your idea of nirvana then you have set for yourself very low goals.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 9:49 AM
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 9:51 AM
"Has anyone's life really changed? "
Yes it has.
"Is there a great depression?"
Yes it is.
"Does it look like the Brooklyn real estate market has come to a complete halt?"
Oh hell yeah.
Dave you are going to make a fool of yourself (I should know LMAO). Quit while you behind..
Brownstoner, it take big heart to come out and say that "you nailed it.". I'm always teeing off on you but for that I will give you major props. But the was is still on.....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 9:57 AM
"Has anyone's life really changed? "
Yes it has.
"Is there a great depression?"
Yes it is.
"Does it look like the Brooklyn real estate market has come to a complete halt?"
Oh hell yeah.
How does one argue with such strong logic???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 10:01 AM
Ah, see I came here especially today to hear what the What had to say. I even followed some of his financial advice and got rid of some Euros the other day. He's actually smarter than my dumb broker who keeps saying hold while he sold everything three weeks ago.
Posted by: 7andfive at October 10, 2008 10:13 AM
I told you guys a long time ago he was easily the funniest poster on this blog. He still cracks me up! Also you have to admit, many of the things he predicted to happen have indeed occurred. Big respect.
Posted by: East New York at October 10, 2008 10:49 AM
Good morning What, hope you're enjoying the moment!
It's been a fascinating ride reading your posts. I remain amused and intrigued!
Cheers!
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 10, 2008 10:55 AM
Wow What. The ultimate compliment. Its almost like your work here is done if Mr B tells you you nailed. Somehow I get the feeling that the we will all have room for each other on this blog after all and that makes me feel all warm and fuzzy (not really but whatever). Peace?
Posted by: wasder at October 10, 2008 10:57 AM
"It's been a fascinating ride reading your posts. I remain amused and intrigued!"
Yeah but I'm very worried. what is going to the psychology when the MAB implodes?
Strange days indeed..
Nobody Told Me - John Lennon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s10t32X5wvI
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 11:01 AM
"Its almost like your work here is done if Mr B tells you you nailed."
Nope Wasder just one more thing. You need to hear from the Lt Col Kilgore..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 11:05 AM
Wow, didn't realize that would be such a big deal. We've never taken issue with the substance of What's financial prognostications, just the style of his non-market-related rants.
Posted by: brownstoner at October 10, 2008 11:18 AM
Mr. B--Me too. I have tried to recognize the predictive aspects of his posts while decrying and/or making fun of the anti-social, paranoid parts.
Posted by: wasder at October 10, 2008 11:25 AM
What--you will have to fill me in on the Lieutenant if you want me to understand that reference.
Posted by: wasder at October 10, 2008 11:25 AM
Check this out. This is Paul Volcker the former Chairman of the FED. He is advising Obama now and you better pray to GOD that he doesn't appoint him! He is the "Angel of Death" and will kill all asset bubbles...
We Have the Tools to Manage the Crisis
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360251805321773.html
"Today, the financial crisis has reached a critical point. The sharp decline in the stock market and its volatility dramatically make the point. More important if less visible, the flow of credit through the banking system and the financial markets is seriously impaired -- even in part frozen."
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 11:27 AM
Oh, don't get me wrong What, I'm deeply concerned, worried and anxious. I just have to hand it to you and other people that saw this coming and actually spoke up about it.
Posted by: cobblehiller at October 10, 2008 11:31 AM
"Today, the financial crisis has reached a critical point. The sharp decline in the stock market and its volatility dramatically make the point. More important if less visible, the flow of credit through the banking system and the financial markets is seriously impaired -- even in part frozen."
Yesterday's news.
Time to start looking forward What.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 11:31 AM
dave, c'mon, give the guy his due. his october prediction was dead on. you can acknowledge this while still considering him a dillweed.
Posted by: z at October 10, 2008 11:59 AM
I always loved The What's posts. He makes me laugh -- and was right.
Posted by: Ringo at October 10, 2008 11:59 AM
z...he predicted a depression and the bottom falling out of the real estate market.
Neither has occurred yet, nor are they likely.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 12:09 PM
Dave- he predicted exactly what is happening. You can call it a recession, a depression or whatever. But let's give some credit he predicted the utter collapse of the financial markets and the utter failure of the real estate market. Now, some will say that New York has not fallen but let's be real here, prices are seriously declining.
Posted by: 7andfive at October 10, 2008 12:26 PM
So the big question is, The What for president !!!!!
Posted by: werner at October 10, 2008 12:34 PM
"Neither has occurred yet, nor are they likely."
You must forgive Dave. The Piper is outside of his Hedge Fund office with a Joshua Tree and a Baseball Bat!
BTW Dave I heard thru the grapevine that there was fraudulent Hedge Funds setup to mike people. All they has was a Cayman Island LLC, Fax Machine and a Telephone. Also I hear that the FBI is warming up the lasers for your boys. I hope you don't get caught up in this and get sent to "are you gonna pound me now?" prison.
Dave=Fail.....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at October 10, 2008 12:41 PM
On the way up I will be using a new phrase What...
"Bitter CD Holder"
WOW...a fraudulent hedge fund. you really heard about one? Couldn't your sources have at least drummed up 2 or 3?
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 12:54 PM
I think Dave's viewpoint is affected by the fact he's launching a new business in this worsening economic environment.
"You must forgive Dave. The Piper is outside of his Hedge Fund office with a Joshua Tree and a Baseball Bat!"
Again....funny.
Posted by: East New York at October 10, 2008 12:55 PM
WHAT do you read in the media that all hedge funds are corrupt? Please, show us that clipping. You're as insightful as Sarah Palin sometimes.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 1:05 PM
So I just transferred a bunch of cash from my MMA to my checking and I'm ready to put some cash in play over the next few days. Let's get some trade predictions. We are here now, so let's try to make the best of it.
Total Market index fund?
Spiders?
S & P index fund?
GE stock?
Financials?
What's the trade people?
Posted by: Adam Dahill at October 10, 2008 1:33 PM
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/gbdreport/download/GBD0306.pdf
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 1:46 PM
Hey I am a CD holder. Just not bitter. Wow this market is crazier than even I thought it would BE. Though I called this last friday... I would rather have had a 20 percent drop on monday and then up. I would have made alot more money that way... This market is just too hard to trade.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 1:49 PM
Hoboken...Like I said a few days ago, Marc always has a few BUY names in his back pocket like Thai Beverage this time. Certainly not a stock for the faint of heart.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 1:52 PM
No, not bitter yet. I'll be using that after the market turns and there's all this whining and questioning as to how far up is it going, have I missed it, why didn't i see the bottom, blah, blah, blah
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 2:00 PM
so no trade predictions? Is everyone just holding the status quo?
Posted by: Adam Dahill at October 10, 2008 2:16 PM
Dave for the record I am using a straddle on MS , AND X.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 2:21 PM
God I love this blog. And props to you What.
To Adam no predictions, although I've been making money this week shorting the Dow. Aside from that I'm all cash, gold (accumulated since late 2005 props to me) and bonds.
Posted by: bridges at October 10, 2008 2:21 PM
You are now seeing a big time hit in the silver market. They are liquidating those babies. If it goes down to historical prices I am back in...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 2:26 PM
Dip your toes in with some QQQQ, BAC & PFE
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 2:33 PM
Thank you The What.
I’ve lived in Clinton Hill for decades in a nice rent regulated apartment. No need for me to be saturated in real estate until a gentrifying ‘asshat’ developer bought my building and came at us tenants with guns blazing trying to evict us from our home. The fact that we have lived here for years through thick and thin in this nabe and were being sh|t on by some shmuck from god knows where, made our blood boil. We are fighting back…yes; The Brooklyn Wars are VERY REAL. One thing this has done is fast forwarded me and got me looking at the huge amount of RE development in this neighborhood. We got a quick education on developers and their Brooklyn Warfare techniques. In the midst of this transformation, I happened to be waiting in line this spring at the supermarket and saw the cover of the New York Mag pictured above.
Brooklyn Wars? I started to skim the article and that was my introduction to Brownstoner and…The What. I lurked and started learning a bit more, day-by-day. I slowly acclimatized to the personalities and temperaments, but I was instantly drawn to reading the engaging strident posts by The What. His posts were making sense to me and educating me in economics so I started following the news more. In our building many tenants were living in denial, lulled into complacency by false promises and BS, getting setup to be bent over and reamed…just like many investors in this bank pyramid scam. Some of us anticipated the harsh treatment we could expect. Similarly, when I read The What I started to see that his - often highly intelligent - opponents were collectively delusional, living very comfortably in denial of the facts. Such is human nature…
I became a fan! Each day as I read The What’s explanations and referenced articles I could see the unthinkable WAS occurring. And let’s face it, who else on this blog was predicting the catastrophic collapse of the US banking system and the economy? The optimists were thoroughly delusional, eyes and brains neutralized by their own dreams and desires. Here’s a toast to the grand tradition of skepticism…and perhaps a well-informed logical pessimism as well.
Bravo!
Posted by: Oxygen at October 10, 2008 2:42 PM
BAC is looking good today. X is trading at 2 times this years earnings. Though I realize those earnings will decline next year , they will still be trading at 5 if they stay in this 40-50 range.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 2:50 PM
daveinbedstuy
how can you say that a depression or a fall in the Bkln housing market has not occurred, when the DOW has dropped 40% in a year - much of it in the last month?
Why would you think that economic reaction to this would be instantaneous, and if not, then therefore NOT going to happen.
I have no clue if we're heading for a literal depression or if the bkln market will "bottom out" but at this point how could you honestly rule out ANYTHING!?
simply to be contrarian to The What?
you give off a vibe that "you've seen this before and no big deal". Well, you're the only one left to say that on the planet.
Posted by: Pastabatman at October 10, 2008 3:01 PM
You and I have a different definition of depression. Look it up and see how it relates to money supply, both M1 and M2. You can say this "feels" like a depression or a recession but that's where the actuality ends!
Am I really the only one left on the whole planet to think this???
There's no responding to these generalisations that are not supported by some kind of evidence. Throwing words and phrases around that you hear on FOX doesn't support the case that you want to argue.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 3:11 PM
Depression would be 20 plus percent of unemployment. Though If these markets keep diving we will in turn get close. 886 sp broke it will go higher
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 3:17 PM
How is this crisis going to effect the elderly?
Do you think this demographic will be amongst the hardest hit: loosing value in pension and retirement funds when they do not have the longevity to endure long term rebounds?
Not to become a conspiracy theorist, but it was mentioned to me yesterday that this banking scam/crisis will ultimately target the elderly. Grab their money, crash the market, get a bail out, bleed the value, then bring the system back online when wealth has changed hands.
Kills two birds with one stone: profit off the elderly and hasten the demise of a huge social demographic that is a burden on society's collective resources. What to do with all the elderly, and their upkeep?
Posted by: Oxygen at October 10, 2008 3:23 PM
UP UP AND AWAYYYYYYYY
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 3:37 PM
Oxygen...the elderly should not have their money in the stock market to begin with. They should be practically 100% in relatively safe fixed income Treasuries (which have gone up in price) if they are living off the interest of their investments. That said, many of the elderly actually have pensions which will continue to pay the defined benefits. Whether or not the pension is underfunded or not is a completely different story.
So there are a lot of other factors in play with regard to people already retired and those considered "elderly" which I would put at 70+
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 3:38 PM
DOWN DOWN DOWN AND OH THIS BABY IS GOING DOWN NOW, I LOVE IT.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 3:40 PM
You need a lithium pill today Hoboken!!!! BAC +7% Boooyah
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 3:45 PM
dude I won't let go of my straddles. Whatever happens next week, I will be protected on the upside and downside. Which way it will go nobody knows. Dave your right when this market goes up you won't be able to catch it
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 3:50 PM
everyone needs a laugh today, check this out
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 10, 2008 3:53 PM
"Even a broken clock is right twice a day"
Posted by: crimson at October 10, 2008 4:44 PM
who was buying GE??? benson?? wasder???? Congratulations. Nice move on the close!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 10, 2008 5:20 PM
DIBS;
It was me. I'm happy with my GE move!
I joined this dialogue late, but you are right on regarding the definition of a depression. I work in the industrial sector, and we have yet to see a slowdown. Matter of fact, our sales are above budget, at least, so far. One of our biggest customers is IBM, who reported nice profits yesterday, and was able to float a $4B bond.
My broker advised me today to take a look at muni bonds. The spread over treasuries is really nice.
Posted by: benson at October 10, 2008 7:23 PM
I was talking about it and I missed the trade because I'm a pussy. I was ready to pull the trigger at 18 today and got caught up in my real job slinging mortgages LOL. That would have been a good trade, I plan on going long on it so maybe I'll have another opportunity this next week. Still relatively cheap considering.
Posted by: Adam Dahill at October 10, 2008 8:34 PM
wasder has never bought any sort of stock in his life.
Posted by: wasder at October 10, 2008 8:40 PM
Crimson nailed it.
Posted by: troll at October 10, 2008 9:09 PM
daveinbedstuy
1st off, that was not what I was saying. I was saying: You may be the only one left on the planet that pretends to understand what in fact is unfolding in front of us. Not whether or not we are headed for a depression or recession.
2nd. There is no absolute definition of a "depression" anyway. So i guess we CAN in fact not agree there. But that's really besides the point.
My only point was that you seem to argue with The What for the very sake of the argument. You also seek him out on the forums to do just that. I believe you have no clue what is going to happen on a broad scale, because I think that nobody does.
Unless of course this an amazing moment in history where there is some condescending "internet tough guy" named dave that lives in a brownstone in bedstuy brooklyn who has all of the worlds economic answers.
I smell a movie deal when this is all over...
Posted by: Pastabatman at October 13, 2008 8:29 AM
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