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September 14, 2008
The end of the Mutant Asset Bubble...
Crisis on Wall Street as Lehman Brothers Totters....
Comments
Eh.. Oh boy... One thing folks, do you really want to buy a house now? Do you believe that "Real Estate always goes up"? Do you believe that "this time is different"?
Well... Lube up!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at September 14, 2008 9:10 PM
Is rent gonna get cheaper now?
Posted by: Steve at September 14, 2008 9:57 PM
You know somethings folks.. I may have underestimated the destruction! Holy shit!!!!
I just remembered that the FDIC is a bunch of IOU's and is underfunded.
I hope that some of you will go back to my post from the beginning of this year and look at the institutions I wrote about WAMU, Citibank, Wachovia and others! They are done, finished and kaput!
Our Banking system is broken and will take generations to fix it. I told you that this period of time will be used for Doctoral Dissertations.
To the people who listen to me and understood what was going on, you will be OK. To the Asshats, you are going to get Anally Raped!!!!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 14, 2008 11:23 PM
He's dead Jim..
Lehman Brothers Files for Bankruptcy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26708143
"Among details to be worked out: the accounting treatment for certain derivatives and repurchase positions, an area not currently covered by bankruptcy laws; and the orderly netting out of a variety of securities positions to which Lehman Brothers is contractually obligated."
Thats gotta leave a mark!! LMMFAOROTMMFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 15, 2008 12:52 AM
It appears my own bearishness may have been significantly understated in an attempt to sound reasonable (and to distinguish myself from The What, who is a hyperactive and undereducated child who doesn't seem to show any actual understanding of the financial news he regurgitates in his posts).
A lot of people who work (or used to work) in the finance industry are going to be selling. A lot. And not many people will be buying.
The impact of these events will disproportionately affect NYC. The combined loss of income and wealth in the City is staggering.
Apart from that, the world is not ending, and if you are not too leveraged (and if you don't work in finance) you will be fine. In the long run, NYC real estate will be fine. But can you survive to see the long run?
Posted by: lechacal at September 15, 2008 7:46 AM
"Apart from that, the world is not ending, and if you are not too leveraged (and if you don't work in finance) you will be fine. In the long run, NYC real estate will be fine. But can you survive to see the long run?"
Hey thanks lechacal. The Asshats will not go down without a fight. And BTW NYC RE will not be fine, it will not be....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 15, 2008 8:50 AM
Lechacal--thanks for stepping in and commenting as an adult on this very difficult subject. Its going to be a wild ride here for a while. I agree that if you have not stretched yourself too thin housing wise and if you don't work in finance you will probably be OK in the long run. I would hope that this crisis brings out the best in people everywhere (this board included).
Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2008 8:52 AM
Hate to be greedy here (yet, after all the investment types had their chance, maybe it's my turn), but what do you guys think that the effect will be "on the street" as it relates to condo prices, etc. in Brooklyn??
Posted by: sjtmd at September 15, 2008 8:59 AM
I would have to believe that a Fed rate cut is not too far off. Sept Empire State Mfg. Index took a nosedive largely b/c there's no lending to businesses anymore. A cathartic selloff in the market is what's necessary to reach any form of a bottom.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 15, 2008 9:03 AM
"Lechacal--thanks for stepping in and commenting as an adult on this very difficult subject. Its going to be a wild ride here for a while. I agree that if you have not stretched yourself too thin housing wise and if you don't work in finance you will probably be OK in the long run. I would hope that this crisis brings out the best in people everywhere (this board included)."
Hhahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OK yeah, it's going to be OK...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at September 15, 2008 9:19 AM
If you don't receive my comments I'm being block by Brownstoner...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at September 15, 2008 9:28 AM
What--I would strongly suggest that you enjoy your moment of glory with some a-typical restraint. It might even make for some interesting reading if you could get out of your own way. But I suspect you are too much of an asshole to actually heed this advice. In that case, enjoy away and I will see you around the neighborhood.
Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2008 9:32 AM
I agree with wasder.
The What , you would have spoken VOLUMES if you stayed away from you computer today.
alas
Posted by: CobbleHilller at September 15, 2008 9:38 AM
What's the big deal? My block was gorgeous this morning, I waved to my friends in the neighborhood, they waved back, I went to my job on Wall Street, everyone was doing whatever they do all day long, and my bank balance was just exactly where I left it Friday. Nobody died. If anything, its the mortgage lenders who are getting roasted on the fire, not the borrowers.
Sure, some merrill and Lehman employees will be laid off, and that will affect the local economy, but this is the system at work, i.e. this is HEALTHY people. What is unhealthy is what they did in Japan -- paper over it and try not to admit it exists. That led to 20 years of stagnation for its economy that it still hasn't escaped.
This whole thing is actually bullish to me. When the bankruptcies start, things tend to get better (maybe not right away though).
Posted by: slopenick at September 15, 2008 10:41 AM
Slopenick--bravo for having a different attitude than the prevailing one around here. Lets hope your interpretation has some merits.
Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2008 10:46 AM
What's the big deal? Instead of working for Merrill-Lynch they'll be cashing their paychecks from the Bank of China.
When I was househunting in 1998 my priority was a fixed-rate mortgage payment no higher than a LES 1BR rent, before deductions. That's why I closed on a beat-up house on a nice block in Bay Ridge. With all the costly renos completed here, I should be okay even if Chicken Little's dire predictions prove to be correct.
Posted by: Steve at September 15, 2008 11:22 AM
The What did you make any money on this downturn? I stopped shorting the market on thursday and am in all cash. Do you think I will be able to get that brooklyn heights townhouse now with about 400k in cash?
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at September 15, 2008 3:35 PM
HOR, This whole thread is funny because whether or not you like his style the What has proven to be right.
Nevertheless I asked him not long ago if he was making money, suggesting several ways he would have made plenty, but he doesn't have the cojones.
That 400k will be a nice downpayment. But you may have trouble selling that house in Hoboken.
Posted by: denton at September 15, 2008 4:32 PM
HobokenRocks... Keep dreaming.
Posted by: buttermilk channel at September 15, 2008 5:07 PM
Hey Denton, wasder & others while I think the What's abrasive and profanity laced posts are really annoying and sometimes plain rude I have to say the dude is proving to be right about the Markets & RE. I agree lechacal it is absolutely true Wall street is in SERIOUS trouble (hence my 401K plus most of my investments). The major banks are failing exponentially so I cant see why this will not be profoundly reflected in our local RE given how tied the areas economy is to Wall st.
Wasder do you really think 6500 people getting laid off from Lehman (50%) and the stock taking such a massive nosedive is not going to affect the NYC economy especially RE? Merrill Lynch is next to go just take a look @ the stock price folks.
Please remember I am NOT happy about these changes unlike the What and I know it is not the end of the world but I am NOT in any denial whatsoever.
Posted by: pierre de taille at September 15, 2008 6:46 PM
YES, If have the cash and don't work in banking (the majority of us), start looking for a house because you won't see buying opportunity like this for another 20 years. If I listened to you on this board I should invest in pallets of canned food, water, gas generators instead and live in the woods in Montana. You need to get back on your meds!
Posted by: ou812 at September 15, 2008 8:08 PM
I don't own a home in Hoboken, I rent a waterfront apartment. But I do own a home in jersey city. Though I have no reason to sell since I collect over 3600 in rent on my two family home is only valued around 500k. I have no problems with my Jersey City home going down since my mortgage is almost paid and im making good money on this home. I must admit I love Brooklyn Heights a bit more than even my great Hoboken apt. So stop messing up my dreams of buying that Brooklyn Heights townhouse for half a million.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at September 15, 2008 8:23 PM
Denton its the doers that reap the rewards. I was lucky enough to get my mom out of the market in her 401k last November. Part of the reason was she just at the pt where she should go to guaranteed interest. And the other part was I felt things were going to get crazy. Now I feel we are going to get a time 6-18 months of deflation. But easy money will come back, it has to and unlike the depression the USA can keep printing, no need to have gold to back up the currency. China will be forced to cut and so will the european central bank. Usa too. Then we will have the biggest run of inflation to ever hit this country... And I will profit by watching the technicals which have proven to be the only way to read this current market....
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at September 15, 2008 11:16 PM
"Wasder do you really think 6500 people getting laid off from Lehman (50%) and the stock taking such a massive nosedive is not going to affect the NYC economy especially RE?"
Of course I think that this is going to have a negative effect on the economy. Why would ask me a question like that? I never said that there wasn't anything true or possible to what What was writing. I objected strongly to the way he went about it and the manner in which he attempted to demonize anyone who was considering buying a house.
Also, while the many of the things that What was writing about have happened in one form or another there are many people on this board who have been predicting similar things but in a way that allows for response and commentary. The What reduces everything to its most childish level and makes phantom strawman enemies of so many on this board. I am not sorry to see him go.
Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2008 11:26 PM
AIG is going down now. things are starting to get nova ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122148503202636197.html?mod=special_coverage
Posted by: werner at September 16, 2008 12:16 AM
It's not as though most of the financial pundits haven't been warning us about this for years. We knew these companies were leveraged to the hilt. Fannie Mae was busted for $4.5 billion in accounting hacks back in 2003, the same year this was written:
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the only two Fortune 500 companies that are not required to inform the public about any financial difficulties that they may be having. In the event that there was some sort of financial collapse within either of these companies, U.S. taxpayers could be held responsible for hundreds of billions of dollars in outstanding debts. A recent investigation by the Justice Department and the SEC into the accounting practices at Freddie Mac revealed accounting errors in the amount of 4.5 to 4.7 billion dollars and resulted in the termination of three of the company's top executives. Ongoing investigations by Congress, particular the House Finance Services subcommittee that oversees the activity of GSEs, will determine the future role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the secondary mortgage market that they dominate."
Prophetic or a "duh" moment?
Posted by: Steve at September 16, 2008 2:42 PM
I dunno wasder, as wacky (ok, out-there) as What sometimes is, it was a nice counterbalance to some of the other attitudes that we get around here daily. And, he was right, and he deserves his "moment in the sun". To gloat, to rub it in, to dance a little jig...whatever.
But I wasn't at the butt-end of his wrath, and I mostly thought he was funny.
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 16, 2008 4:14 PM
Fair enough cobblehiller. I didn't see the comments that Brownstoner used to ban him so I can't comment on that. In re his moment in the sun, like I said I never said there wasn't any truth to what he was saying, but he took it to another level with the "I hope you all f--cking die" stuff. Is that "being right?" He was right about the fact that our banking system is in collapse but not right about the fact that that makes me, a film-maker and generally nice mellow fellow, his enemy. Do you get what I am saying?
Posted by: wasder at September 16, 2008 5:17 PM
I agree that the effing die stuff was taking it too far, as I have said before. Hmm, along with the ruder comments. They clearly offended quite a few people. Comments which apparently actually worried some people re What's mental health - see THL's comments to this effect. I kind of understand the root of his anger as I have been here about the same amount of time as What, I'm guessing we're about the same age from statements What made over time. I may not agree with the method in the madness, but I got the point and didn't throw the baby out with the bathwater, to mix a few metaphors badly.
But again, I wasn't the butt of the anger, so I defer to those who were.
That said, I would have enjoyed watching What glory in his moment. I also see it would have been at the expense of other people, and disturbing their peace.
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 17, 2008 9:29 AM
There is no doubt that it would have been spectacular theater and all of us should be able to have enough of a sense of humor and tolerance to deal with it. But I also have appreciated the ability to have conversations here the last few days that haven't had to navigate the minefield that What inevitably creates.
Posted by: wasder at September 17, 2008 9:49 AM
What's a presence even in his absence. Especially in his absence perhaps? I think he's amusing, but take away the rococo expletives decorating his posts and he's never said anything about the meltdown that isn't readily available (not to mention more intelligible) elsewhere. We may not be in the midst of a financial collapse, but it sure looks like one.
Posted by: bridges at September 17, 2008 3:51 PM
"Rococo expletives decorating his posts", pretty funny, I like that, good one bridges.
It's the delivery guys! Lots of people say stuff, most of them are not funny. Mr. What has a certain 'je ne sais quoi' that cracked me up pretty regularly. I like Lewis Black, as I have mentioned numerous times. It's the delivery. It's that sheer force of head exploding, synapses short circuiting, sputtering, anger, he can't effing believe the stuff that's going on, and WOW! - he's off and running. It's a rant, it's a ride, it's the inimitable What.
However, as I've also said before - I wasn't on the receiving end - that is a very different thing. And there is a part of me that hopes, like Lewis Black is a comedian, that this was a steam valve and not his natural mode of existance. Or perhaps I'm slightly de-lu-sional - as Lewis might say.
And if there were violent threats, well I can't support that. Although I will say this about that - What said some pretty atrocious stuff over time, so I'm having a little disconnect imagining what he could have said that was much worse, and would finally push Mr. B over the edge after putting up with some pretty c/rude stuff for quite awhile. But I never saw the comments, so I just have to guess that they must have been way way way off the chart. In fact, I'm not sure I'd want to see them at this point 'cause it sounds scary.
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 17, 2008 8:31 PM
I smell Napalm....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 23, 2008 10:20 PM
Yeah, you, me, Whuh and a few other people.
So how much worse do you think this is going to get? You said at one point that you thought you may have under-estimated this disaster. What do you think now?
And what happens if Congress doesn't buy Paulson's plan ASAP? I'm trying to find articles that explain this to a non-financial person. Do you have any faith in Bernake, or does that even matter now that Paulson wants to/may be "Kinged".
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 24, 2008 10:43 AM
"So how much worse do you think this is going to get? You said at one point that you thought you may have under-estimated this disaster. What do you think now?"
It's really fucking bad! Damn, I underestimated the dynamics of this Mutant Asset Bubble.
I said before "you are watching a Depression unfold in front of you" and the greatest transfer of wealth in history.
This is DEFCON 5 shit!
Please don't tell anyone I'm around. I'm on Covert-Ops...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 24, 2008 3:48 PM
"And what happens if Congress doesn't buy Paulson's plan ASAP? I'm trying to find articles that explain this to a non-financial person. Do you have any faith in Bernake, or does that even matter now that Paulson wants to/may be "Kinged"."
Like I explained before: The BIG BOYS don't lose, ever!!!! They have hijacked the American Republic and are Ass raping every thing in sight. Bernake and Paulson are the "Hit Men" and the American Taxslave is the "Mark"!
The next President will have some tough choices to make because the Bush Cabal is leaving a steaming pile of Shit for them to clean up....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
BTW They anit fucking teasing me now, huh!
Posted by: what at September 24, 2008 3:53 PM
Covert Ops - you're a riot! You got it.
Why not do the RTC/HomeFed plan a la S&L bailout? My sister worked on that years ago. I mean any idiot can see why they want a blank check - can i have one too. [smirk]. This 'section 8' business is beyond belief. I knew they were brazen, but they have surpassed my cynicism with this one.
Nope, no one's teasing you now What. No siree bub.
Can Barack do it? I don't trust McPain one bit.
So how do you like our friend Whuh?
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 24, 2008 7:13 PM
"Why not do the RTC/HomeFed plan a la S&L bailout?"
Yep but, where is the money coming from? Taxes, Investment Banking, Real Estate, Bonds???? LMMFAO!!!
"I mean any idiot can see why they want a blank check - can i have one too. [smirk]. This 'section 8' business is beyond belief. I knew they were brazen, but they have surpassed my cynicism with this one."
Nope cobblehiller, the average American is a fucking retard (I mean that). They splash this shit all over the news and the Ass-heads can't comprehend what's happening. This thru the "Dumbing Down" part of America. remember the movie Idiocracy? That why the Big Boys will get this deal done, it's been in the work for months.
"Can Barack do it? I don't trust McPain one bit."
I think McInsane is your next President. Remember about the "Retarded American" thing! I rest my case..
"So how do you like our friend Whuh?"
That's my new friend! He's me with a education (LMMFAO!). I loved the way he just POWED DIBS! Just lovely!
Anyway I'm back to Cover-Ops, What out.....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Oh one more thing! I'm glad that people are now understanding that your "elected officials" don't work for you, they work for the Corporate interests of the world!
Posted by: what at September 24, 2008 10:09 PM
Taxes, sigh. Or... I know, I know! Let's borrow it from China! [retch]
Ugh, don't even joke about McPain, it gives me nightmares.
Mmm, that was a lovely moment. I'm a fan.
Good news! Bush is finally getting better at reading the teleprompter.
Over and out, What - come back and visit from time to time, as the drama unfolds...
P.S. I'm guessing you've had an education, too, just a guess.
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 24, 2008 10:41 PM
The starving proletariat will drag the drunk bougeroise out of their seats at Blue Ribbon grill and eat their sashimi!!!
Daily Hangings at Grand Army Plaza
This will occur sometime in the future. 2012?
nostradamos? anyone?
Posted by: Springs at September 24, 2008 11:48 PM
I doubt any of this will prevent the putsch-excuse me, bailout--Nevertheless, I've been emailing and faxing our elected representatives to express my, er, reservations. This little taxpayer will go down swinging!
Kevin Phillips' new book Bad Money is a good one-stop explanation of this unfolding disaster and why we are all affected, even supposedly bullet-proof New York City. Not hatin', just sayin
Posted by: bridges at September 25, 2008 4:40 PM
Hey cobblehiller- maybe you and What should get a room somewhere. You keep making comments about why Mr. B blocked What, "Although I will say this about that - What said some pretty atrocious stuff over time, so I'm having a little disconnect imagining what he could have said that was much worse, and would finally push Mr. B over the edge after putting up with some pretty c/rude stuff for quite awhile." what is your problem with Mr. B? You seem to be having plenty of fun on his blog/dime. Get over it already.
Posted by: lurker in the mist at September 25, 2008 6:57 PM
test
Posted by: what at September 26, 2008 10:58 AM
I don't think we have a choice but to have a bailout. By merely announcing a bailout the Fed put would markets on notice. If there weren't on the brink before, well they are now with anticipation of a bailout. Most people in the market now believe that Wall Street won't survive without a bailout. Whether that's true or not doesn't matter, confidence has been eroded and without a bailout we will have massive meltdown.
Americans say goodbye to even the idea of universal health care, better infrastructure. The up side is that I got Fannie Mae at the bargain basement price of 1.30 per share for my retirement fund.
Posted by: 7andfive at September 26, 2008 11:03 AM
Hi lurker,
Wow, OK. I'm pretty stunned by your note. I think my statements have been pretty reasonable/fair. Your response has shocked me.
Have I ever been nasty to anyone here, yourself included?
I have absolutely no problem with Mr. B blocking anyone. I think I've been clear about that. And I think my note above from over a week ago says that.
I asked a few regulars if they had seen the "final straw" comments. I did not, at any time, make any statements that Mr. B should not have blocked What, if he wanted to do so. I questioned what happened, that's all.
I do have a good time reading this blog, and commenting with people. I like most everyone and I'm pretty civil with everyone. I think if you were talking to me in person, you might not have been so harsh towards me. I'm a pretty nice person.
I'm amused by and curious about what What has to say. I've actually engaged him in some bits of conversation. We seem to be a little friendly. Unlike a lot of people here I haven't been shitty/nasty to him, so maybe that's why he's nicer to me. So if that inspires insulting comments from you, so be it. But I wish you wouldn't. I've been nice to you, we've had a few fun little exchanges ourselves, as I recall.
take it easy lurker.
Posted by: cobblehiller at September 26, 2008 2:23 PM
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