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July 23, 2008
Why such low inventory?
We are dying to buy a modest townhouse, ideally in PS area since we're already sold our previous place and are renting for now. When I say modest, I mean we could live on upper duplex with a garden rental, and don't need lots of fancy old details, nor super prime location (south slope and down towards 5th Ave is fine with me). But there is nothing to buy right now! What's up with that? Are sellers afraid of the market? I don't get that since prices shot up so much the last few years that anyone who's owned more than a few years will still do just fine (we're not waiting for a total crash of NYC market, even though we do realize the market has softened). Is it just the time of year? Is it always such slim pickings this time of year? Any tips for how to find stuff outside of trolling the usual real estate listings and trying to walk around the neighborhood, and of course, spreading the word to all we know?
Comments
Miss Muffett - we were in the same boat. In all the years I've been following Brookyln real estate (let's say the last 12) this is the longest dry spell I have seen. (By dry spell I mean shortage of interesting listings) And anything that seemed remotely interesting was always snapped up pronto. Sort of like the good old days. I think many, many people are sitting and waiting. There's a lot of stuff sitting on the market that's of little interest to us - properties that we feel are way overpriced, and evidently others do too, because the same listings have been sitting since January. We think we've found something but it took more leg work than I would have believed neccessary for someone who's pretty well in tune with the Brooklyn market. My advice - keep doing what you're doing. Maybe place a House Wanted on Craig's List. Check out Zillow and see if there are any "Make Me Move" tags in areas you are interested in. For what it's worth, I know a couple of people who have listed their houses under "Make Me Move" - they're overextended. Their "Make me Move" prices are somewhat unrealistic for this market, but perhaps you can approach with a price you think is fair. Good luck!
Posted by: brooklyny at July 23, 2008 6:11 PM
great suggestion, I posted my own make me move price, I should see what others are asking. Thanks
Posted by: bqe1970 at July 23, 2008 8:33 PM
Thanks brooklyny. We'd thought of posting a house wanted ad on Craigs List before, but my husband was terrified that we'd be besieged by spam - did that happen to you?
Anyway, I'll probably create a new email address (missmuffett@gmail, natch) devoted to this search. It is weird how little is out there, but at least we're in a good position to buy since we've done our real estate sales so our financials are ready to go. Just wish one of these old-timers would decide to sell!!
Posted by: Miss Muffett at July 23, 2008 9:18 PM
"I don't get that since prices shot up so much the last few years that anyone who's owned more than a few years will still do just fine..."
No offense but this is typical "frustrated potential buyer mentality": 'They are sitting on such a large gain, why don't "they" (owners) just price it a bit lower and sell it already?!'
I agree there is a bit of a standoff right now between buyers and sellers but you seem to be confusing an owner's basis with fair market price. One has nothing to do with the other. The market will determine supply of houses and the market-clearing price.
Posted by: Mr Joist at July 24, 2008 9:16 AM
There's just not any motivation to sell. Sellers do often overprice a bit and need to come down. But I've been hearing about tons of lookie loos who can't make a decision, and absurdly lowball offers that waste sellers' time. Homeowners hear enough stories of that from neighbors selling their places they sure won't be in a hurry to sell. They'll wait this out.
It doesn't seem there was much logic applied to the strategy to wait to buy. I kept thinking during the chatter of the last couple years about waiting to get better prices on houses because the market will take a hit, why did people think there will much for sale at all? From what they'd say they plainly thought prices would drop and despite the tougher market for sellers the same number and quality of houses would be for sale. But that shouldn't have made sense, really.
It just means it takes longer to find something. Good luck, keep at it. I always tell people if the photos and listing don't look great, go anyway. Take a look. That's how we found our place. And because the listing was done so badly done nobody else made offers which was helpful to us.
Posted by: traditionalmod at July 24, 2008 10:53 AM
are you open to other neighborhoods besides PS?
Posted by: redbone at July 24, 2008 11:34 AM
I also think a lot of people who once might have thought about leaving Brooklyn are seeing what's happening in the rest of the country (large housing price declines, gas prices shooting up, unemployment, the divide which is shaping up in the November election between liberals and conservatives and those in this country who would never vote for a black man for president, and the general feelings of some that the suburbs and exurbs are not the place to be right now).
I think all of these things are going to keep people here in New York. If you've been out in "the real world" lately...to small towns, or to places like Cleveland or Philadelphia or Phoenix, you can really get a sense of what this economic situation is doing to many communities across this country.
It is devastating for many places, many of which were prospering just a few short years ago.
Posted by: 11217 at July 24, 2008 12:09 PM
some people and or their agents dont advise that you put a home on the market during the summer since many people go on vacations. Then you may end up with a home sitting on the market for a long period of time. People always ask how long has it been sitting on the market, the longer the more weary people are of purchasing. Thats what I've heard from friends in the industry.
Posted by: caseycrespo at July 24, 2008 12:22 PM
We are open to other neighborhoods (WT, PH, CG) but have to be careful because of school (we have young kids, and while one is enrolled at a great school, it's risky to assume younger one will get in on a variance). Yeah, I figure summer has a lot to do with it - already I've been getting feedback from various sources that a lot of people are waiting til the fall to put their places on the market. I do realize something will come up soon, but it is a weird time. As for the city argument, I see that, but there are definitely more affordable cities - Boston for one, which has great quality of life, great jobs, and much more affordable housing. Even the Bay area is more affordable now since things have softened more out there than they have yet in NYC. I actually know people who are leaving NYC to live in these more affordable cities - it's not always a choice between NYC and the burbs, but rather NYC and another city, not to mention places commutable outside of NYC where you can currently get great deals and take public transport (so gas is not a huge issue). And FYI, we're not lookie-loos nor are we expecting a rock bottom price (so are not frustrated in terms of being unable to afford something - our budget is actually pretty healthy given our wish list which is pretty flexible/modest) - we really are ready to buy ASAP (no dawdling on an offer over financial worries i.e. having to sell or expecting the market to crash), but we just need to find the right place. The Zillow suggestion was a good one, as is walking around to look at "for sale" signs from smaller brokers (apparently, there are more of these in South Slope) but I do suspect we mainly have to wait til summer is over, when more properties should hit the market...
Posted by: Miss Muffett at July 24, 2008 12:38 PM
Unless I'm mistaken, your post seems to imply you should be able to purchase something for what you feel it is worth not what the seller is asking. The number of sales in Brooklyn may be down a bit but the average price has increased by 6% or so this year.
There is no "timing" the market. Like most people, you must have a budget. If your budget or pocketbook match the market, well you will certainly get frustrated. There are no deals in Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights or any of the other "prime neighborhoods" such as Prospect Heights or Carroll Gardens, which you listed. These are very desirable neighborhoods. You are not the only person who wishes to live there.
There's plenty of product out there, but it seems you feel you will get a bargain especially made for you. Good luck with that.
Posted by: bilk at July 24, 2008 9:50 PM
Bilk, actually you're wrong - my question was really about why inventory is low. Our budget is perfectly generous given our wish list, and we've certainly seen listings or friends of ours have found properties in the range of 1.3-1.5 in these neighborhoods (we are willing to go higher, by the way, but this is just to say that we know these listings have been out there very recently). We didn't buy before for various reasons though we came close, and now we're ready but there's just less on market. Anyway, I do suspect a lot of it is simply summertime, but I simply wondered if others could offer other tips (like brooklyny).
Posted by: Miss Muffett at July 24, 2008 11:17 PM
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