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July 22, 2008
How long before the implosion of the Mutant Real Estate Asset Bubble?
What is the timeframe of the implosion of this Mutant Real Estate Bubble?!
Come on! You thought this was going to last forever?!
Comments
First of all, I hope it happens soon, so that more of my friends can buy houses!
But seriously, there's a serious trend toward urbanization that makes me think there is some straightforward supply-and-demand at work. The populations of large cities like NYC are growing and populations in more rural/suburban areas like upstate and Western NY are shrinking. Transportation and energy are becoming more expensive, and this is going to make the density and proximity of urban living increasingly desirable.
Cities are greener than suburbs or exurbs or farms, and financial incentive to live more efficiently will increase. Add to this the fact that there are only so many pre-war buildings, and I don't feel that bad about paying through the nose.
I do think there will be a short-term serious correction, though. I don't know when it will happen, but it has to. Nobody can get a mortgage and the cost of food, etc. is getting way too high.
Posted by: vanburenproud at July 22, 2008 4:42 PM
"But seriously, there's a serious trend toward urbanization that makes me think there is some straightforward supply-and-demand at work. "
That's funny but, I have a friend who works from home. She is a CPA (Very SMRT LOL) and pulls down six figures a year. Do you think in this age of computers we could work from home and not commute to work? I mean we do less physical work and more metal. Maybe the "urbanization" thing will reverse itself.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 22, 2008 4:49 PM
There are many, many jobs which will never allow working from home. Right now, 2% of the population works from home and the majority of those are on a part time home schedule.
You are grasping for straws, per usual.
Posted by: 11217 at July 22, 2008 4:55 PM
I work for a Fortune 50 company and almost everyone "works" from home at least several days a week. One guy even moved to a state (cheaper) where there is not even an office -- not business there art all). Our NY offices are half empty al the time. However, it is getting absurd -- conference calls while people are driving to get their kids or going to the gym or whatever. It may work for some jobs but you cannot know a business -- have a basis for good business decisions if you are so far removed from it.
Posted by: BH76 at July 22, 2008 5:08 PM
BH76 do you think people can work from home? And if you think they can, what effect this will have on Urban House prices?
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 22, 2008 5:14 PM
I think that you (The What) and maybe 3 other posters on this entire blog think that the mutant real estate bubble will continue forever.
You are actually the only person who talks about it any length. Everyone else seems quite content with the fact that the bubble is now deflating. Certainly all the people who would like to own are thrilled with it.
I am a homeowner, and I look forward to more people like myself who might be able to afford to live in Park Slope. I bought a home in this neighborhood because I found it a great place to live for me. I didn't buy it on the speculation that I'd cash out in a few years. I plan to be here for the foreseeable future.
I'd say most people in NYC have done the same. Bought because they want to live here.
You seem to lead a very unhappy life, and wish bad things on good people. I find that disturbing, and I find most of what you say to be irrational and very closed-minded.
Sure, people will work from home. I work from home a day a week. That doesn't mean I'm moving to Idaho because it's cheaper there. I love living in New York and think it's it's an incredible city.
You don't it would seem. So why do you stay?
Posted by: 11217 at July 22, 2008 5:20 PM
11217 two posts, two attacks on The What. Can you just have a dialogue without the attacks?
People don't understand the damaging consequences of this Mutant Real Estate Asset Bubble. Higher prices due to inflating the money supply. Higher Food, Rent and etc..
Our Banking System is on life support and is insolvent. This is the main reason that I vent! BTW To everyone I own a house too. What does that mean, nothing! That house is not a extension of myself, I make me! Some people buy things because, something is lacking in their life or they need to brag to others or be in the "Metoo" crowd ..
11217 Please if you don't have anything to add, please leave me alone and go somewhere else....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 22, 2008 5:33 PM
you people are just feeding the troll here. The best thing to do with entries like this is to move past it without a second thought so that the What doesn't get whatever perverse pleasure he/she gets from pissing on everyone else.
Posted by: wasder at July 22, 2008 5:45 PM
You say people don't understand it, and quite frankly, I think that's bull. People are not as stupid as you make them out to be.
I think more people than you give credit to, know EXACTLY what is going on, but choose not to dwell on it or blow it out of proportion. Right now, overreacting is THE WORST thing for our country.
Perhaps some people are being naive, but there are very few people right now who don't understand that the banking system and the housing sector are going through some MUCH NEEDED pain right now.
The way you bring the information to the table is absurd. People read the paper, listen to the news and are far more interested in this subject than you know.
You are speaking to a crowd of very educated people here on brownstoner. Your talks of the end of the world really make you seem like one of the least intelligent people on here by making it seem like you're bringing new information to the table.
You aren't.
You are regurgitating information from the New York Times that most of us already read hours previous.
Posted by: 11217 at July 22, 2008 5:49 PM
Clearly, there are many people still buying real estate in Brooklyn. The market is appears to be in pretty good shape comparatively. Unless all these buyers are stupid or ridiculously rich and uncaring they see long-term value in these properties. I would credit the buyers (and sellers) with at least average intelligence and with being very aware of the market forces they are facing.
If the banks and related financial institutions do not die of terminal greed, this will bubble will deflate at a livable rate and the country will work its way through this as it has done with other asset bubbles in the past.
As has been said many times on this board - these are homes, not merely investments and you gotta live somewhere.
Posted by: LM at July 22, 2008 6:11 PM
That poster is so funny. I mean, that cat doesn't even know that it hasn't properly capitalized the first person pronoun.
Posted by: Park Place at July 22, 2008 8:39 PM
I know The What is a pain in the ass, but I think he asks a valid question.
I live in it and everything, but my home is an investment. I do include the equity in my home when I am rebalancing my portfolio. And the market is tanking because too many consumers depended on the value of their homes increasing forever instead of getting a savings account.
I hope that we are all blessed enough to be able to invest in more than our homes.
And I trust that some parts of my portfolio are *guaranteed* to perform poorly in the short term (>5 years) if my asset allocation is correct. I think it's going to be better for the economy at large if my house is a bad investment that I keep paying into for many years.
I know that The What doesn't trust that homeowners can and have sat on their "bad investments" and continued to live in them without worrying before. And that's OK. It's fair to ask about it. It's a scary and interesting short-term situation.
Posted by: vanburenproud at July 22, 2008 9:00 PM
"Our Banking System is on life support and is insolvent" NO. Some individual banks are insolvent and will fail and/or be taken over. The banking system as a whole is not insolvent. Interest rates are not high by historical standards. Some banks have more loan growth than they can handle.
Its those type statements and rants that always make you sound so ridiculous and like a ranting lunatic. Clean up your act and start writing more like your other posts here and maybe you'd get more respect.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 22, 2008 9:18 PM
"Its those type statements and rants that always make you sound so ridiculous and like a ranting lunatic."
From What's World..
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121675734852874581.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"Wachovia and Washington Mutual were the latest financial firms to tally up their losses. The former posted a second-quarter loss of $8.66 billion. Much of damage was inflicted by write-downs and higher provisions for bad loans. Wachovia's current problems stem largely from its $25.5 billion purchase of California-based Golden West Financial nearly two years ago, a move that barreled the Charlotte, N.C., company into adjustable-rate mortgages near the peak of the housing market. "These bottom-line results are disappointing and unacceptable," Chairman Lanty L. Smith said Tuesday. "
daveinbedstuy, It's not a rant, it's reality. Major Banks are taking big losses... I know this subject hurts your bottom line but, I'm not ranting.
"Clean up your act and start writing more like your other posts here and maybe you'd get more respect."
Ok Dave, I understand. Your "Investment" is not going the way you planed. Your friends (If you have any) don't want to visit your because the safety concerns. Your neighbors don't like you (We can't stand you here). There is not enough Gentrification for your neighborhood and other things are not going your way.. Thats life Dave and I hope your investment can withstand the crashing of this MREB...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 22, 2008 10:17 PM
So what should we do about it then? What, you seem to be so down on people who invested in communities like Bed Stuy, yet you seem to also have nothing but scorn for those who buy in tonier nabes like Park Slope, because they may have vastly overpaid, by your estimates.
We've gotta live somewhere. Are we all either bitter renters, or sorry buyers? It would seem to me that the only people who will regret buying anywhere, in the near future, are those who are speculating in the market - investors and flippers who aren't looking for long term homes, but money making machines. It doesn't seem as if there are too many of them around anymore, at least not in brownstone Bklyn. It seems like even those who are looking to pick up more property are doing so to hold onto for the long haul, at least much longer than before.
But why the scorn for Dave and others who have chosen to buy in the hood? They are helping our neighborhoods to grow and revitalize. Gentrification is complicated and a two edged sword, but I for one, welcome anyone who wants to be here, respects those who are here, and tries to make the neighborhood better for all, not just themselves. Their considerable investments in real estate strengthen these neighborhoods. Of course I have issues with those who think "I'm here, now change", but that's another story.
I think you have good things to say, when you want to. I hope you can start to suggest solutions, as well as to be the town crier of doom.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at July 22, 2008 11:50 PM
"So what should we do about it then? What, you seem to be so down on people who invested in communities like Bed Stuy, yet you seem to also have nothing but scorn for those who buy in tonier nabes like Park Slope, because they may have vastly overpaid, by your estimates."
No Morris, Im not down on people who "invested" in communities like Bed Stuy. If you were paying attention most of my rants are against this "Hot Money" in this Mutant Real Estate bubble. BTW Morris where was all those Asshats in the 80' and 90's? The Brownstones was there why not come in and invest? Plus don't say they was crime ridden and crack invested because they still are! Yes in 2008 they do crime and sell drugs in Clinton Hill! The Hot Money brought these Asshats from everywhere and now these neighborhoods are desirable? Give me a break Morris!
"We've gotta live somewhere. Are we all either bitter renters, or sorry buyers? It would seem to me that the only people who will regret buying anywhere, in the near future, are those who are speculating in the market - investors and flippers who aren't looking for long term homes, but money making machines"
Yep Morris but those "investors" increased the "value" of properties across Brooklyn and people was felling wealthily! But the cost of this Mutant Real Estate Bubble is INFLATION! Yes morris inflation, higher gas prices, higher rent prices and other things I forgot.
You come off as disingenuous Morris! You on one hand feel people get a bad shake but you are always boosting Crown Heights North. BTW What the feck is Crown Heights North anyway?!
"But why the scorn for Dave and others who have chosen to buy in the hood? They are helping our neighborhoods to grow and revitalize. Gentrification is complicated and a two edged sword, but I for one, welcome anyone who wants to be here, respects those who are here, and tries to make the neighborhood better for all, not just themselves. "
Yep, please come in O Asshats.. Please make my property worth more Morris is your man. I will help you carry your furniture up the stairs at no cost.. Please Uncle Morris will serve you..
"I think you have good things to say, when you want to. I hope you can start to suggest solutions, as well as to be the town crier of doom."
No homeboy.. You was ass-kissing Brownstoner on the other thread. You see Morris you would never take a stand. For me it's a big thing and I know very very soon, the prophecy will be fulfilled..
The What (Yep The What, Brooklyn's Finest)
Someday this war is gonna end....
Posted by: what at July 23, 2008 1:04 AM
You always revert back to your low class, badly spelled, nonsensical, ebonics-laden, headline-pasting rants.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2008 7:46 AM
The way your posts devolve is unfortunate, What.
It's potentially interesting to have this discussion. You should have value here, because you are willing to point to major bank losses. The effects of this will ripple through the housing market. We are due for another serious correction.
This is interesting.
But you don't seem to understand the neighborhoods you denigrate, like Bed Stuy, and you don't seem to understand that markets are prone to bubbles and hype--that this has all happened before and will again.
Dude. First, the sky is not falling forever. If you know as much as you say you do about the market, then you know that the sky falls periodically.
Second, If you're going to talk about Bed Stuy, come to the neighborhood first. I have a forclosure on my block, but I also have a bunch of families who bought when their homes were $95K or less, who are paid off already. Those families because they have already paid for their housing, have a lot of time and energy to work with the vice squad to keep drug dealers off my street. I won't deny that crime and drugs exist, but there's crime and drugs in park slope, too. When you talk about Bed Stuy, you sound like a racist "asshat" who's doing nothing but shouting old cliches.
That's why nobody listens to you.
Listen back and people will have a conversation. Then we could get somewhere.
Posted by: vanburenproud at July 23, 2008 8:28 AM
If we are going to cut and paste then at least you should all have some reputable advice...from the Gartman Letter yesterday:
"Before we begin any other discussions here this
morning, let's note that after revisions in previous
data, the ratio of the Coincident to Lagging
Indicators released yesterday by The Conference
Board rose for the 2nd month in a row. This we
find important, for when the ratio has risen for two
months in a row it has often... indeed very often...
marked the bottom of the economy. Looking back
at The Conference Board's Business Cycle
Indicators, we note that the ratio of the Coincident
to Lagging Indicators called the economic bottom
to the very month ending the recession of '60; it
called the bottom to the very month ending the
recession of '70; it called the bottom to the very
month ending the recession of '72-'74; it anticipated
the bottom of the recession by two months in '80; it
was also 2 months early calling the bottom of the
'81-'82 recession; it called the bottom to the very
month ending the recession of '90-'91, and although
the Board said that it called the bottom of the recession
nearly one year early ending the recession of '01, we
say upon looking at the chart that it called the bottom
only one month early! In other words, this Ratio
has stood the test of time,and because it has now
turned up for the 2nd month-in-a-row we are
more optimistic about the economic future than
we've been in some while.
We've been generally negative about the US
economy since the ratio turned down back in late
'04 at the very height of the real estate boom, and
now that it has turned higher, we turn with it looking for better times ahead, not worse.
The only problem is that many of the economic data points that make up the media's headlines, such as unemployment and housing starts, are lagging indicators and will make for very ill economic news for several months yet into the future. But the worst is now behind us,if history repeats itself in any fashion and if the past is indeed prologue to the future."
The last poaragraph is what The What delivers to you daily.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2008 8:44 AM
What: I think it (telecommuting) will have no impact on real estate values in real cities. What it does impact are all those suburban office parks and the housing tracks that surround them. People move there for shorter commutes; if they do not have to go to the office park, they can live further out in more exurban areas. Cities attract people who thrive on the proximity of others -- whether in the office or in their neighborhoods. I think that the desirability of cities has much to do with the influx of so many younger people who grew up in surburbs and found them deadly and older ones who are moving back now that their children are grown. It is astounding to me how many people are in the neighborhood who work from home -- and pay so much more to live here in Brooklyn! It's why we are all here.
Posted by: BH76 at July 23, 2008 9:10 AM
If we are going to try to have a conversation about this stuff then I agree with Van Buren who said the What needs to listen a little. But I don't think that is the What's aim here. The what is not who he/she appears to be, willfully misspelling simple words and then tossing out a "disingenuous" or other multi-syllabic words in the same post. This is a mischief maker who is just trying to screw with your heads folks. Engaging on any real level is just going to make you frustrated and get the What's rocks off. Ignore ignore ignore.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2008 9:26 AM
Then what about having an actual conversation about the issue and ignoring The What?
I have questions about what other people posted:
daveinbedstuy: so you honestly believe that everything's basically okay? When I read the news, I see a lot of abstract indicators saying "everything's fine" but at the same time, gas and food (the basics) are skyrocketing... inflation is going up... and everyone's talking sluggish growth.
How do you reconcile this? I don't think anyone's going to be able to get a mortgage for awhile... credit is tightening. And credit tightening as inflation is skyrocketing is weird and bad, right?
Morris: you are a Bed Stuy resident extraordinaire. What's your take on continued gentrification and crime? I think it has more to do with renters than homeowners. But I haven't been here as long as you have. What do you think?
BH76: I agree with you that telecommuting is not really a factor here. Do you think people are moving to Brooklyn strictly for lifestyle issues? Because that seems unsustainable if prices keep going up to me. What do you think?
Posted by: vanburenproud at July 23, 2008 9:50 AM
Fair enough Van Buren. I wasn't trying to stifle honest conversation so thanks for your suggestion that we continue the discussion minus the unfortunate OP.
This discussion has particular meaning to me because I am right in the middle of negotiating to buy a house and obviously I am concerned and troubled by some of the economic indicators. I am not buying for the short term in any way but am buying to own for many years and have my children grow up in this house. I have no problem with the concept that the house might depreciate in the next few years but I would like to see it be a sound investment for me in 20. I don't understand enough about the micro elements of the housing market but I think I get the larger issues. I think that the urbanization trend due to increasing energy prices is a process that is real and will continue into the future no matter what new energy sources we create. Being in a creative field I can telecommute and am thinking about working entirely out of my new home soon.
Anyway, that's where I am at and I am sorry if it came across that I didn't want people to talk about real concerns and issues. I just don't appreciate real concerns and issues getting crapped on for fun.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2008 10:12 AM
I'm certainly not going to say that a lot of people aren't hurting here. But these issues of rising prices are self-correcting and there's already a lot of evidence of that occuring:
Crude peaked on July 11 @ $145 and is now $127
Heating oil peaked July 3 @ $410 and is now $363
Corn peaked on June 27 @ $754 and is now $552
There are a lot of people losing jobs yet the overall unemployment rate remains fairly constant. Economists are beginning to actually talk about deflation in a year or so because of the deleterious effects that the currrent numbers are having.
Remember, once we roll over into next year, if these prices aren't continuing to rise (which they are not as of now) then the year-on-year change numbers (inflation) will be close to zero or negative.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2008 10:25 AM
wasder, no worries. I didn't mean to sound like I was pooping on you. Your situation is interesting. I feel like I bought at almost the height of the market, in an area that is not gentrifying very rapidly, did a ton of work on it, and I still feel like I could unload it in the current market and almost come out even.
But I am not looking to do this because it's my home. The financial calculations are different than a stock. I think it's important to ask yourself:
*how much you're paying in rent
*how much you'll be paying in ten years (ie, are you rent-stabilized, have a great landlord, live in a not-so-great neighborhood already)
*how diversified your portfolio will remain if you put a substantial amount of money into a down payment
*do you want rental income (with its attendant responsibilities)
*do you need the tax break (if you are working from home (home office) and taking the tax deduction for your mortgage, this could really add up)
*can you really afford it as a way to pay your living expenses, which you'd be paying anyway?
There are short-term financial benefits to owning a house (for some not all people) that have nothing to do with the home's value on the market--that are a function of using it. If that applies to you and you find something you can afford, then why not? If you find that it doesn't, then I would rent for awhile and see what the market does.
Posted by: vanburenproud at July 23, 2008 11:25 AM
dave, help me understand why inflation will be zero or negative. Color me ignorant... I don't see it yet.
Posted by: vanburenproud at July 23, 2008 11:27 AM
vanburenproud....the simple example is that crude started the year at $99 and rose to $145 in July. Its now $127 which is where it was for most of May. Once we get to May of next year and crude is still at $127 (or lower) then the year-over-year change (or rate of inflation) will be zero or less. This is a simplified example but it can be extrapolated across all commodities. There will be leads and lags and volatility and these numbers won't begin to look like this until 2Q or 3Q or 4Q of next year but that isn't all that far away, economic cyclically speaking.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2008 11:38 AM
What, there really was no need to go the Uncle Tom route in answering my post. If you have read anything I have posted in the last 3 years, it is obvious that I kiss no one's butt. Never have, and never will. My defense and love of my neighborhoods, first Bed Stuy, where I lived for 17 years, and now Crown Heights, where I bought my home 6 years ago, is not based on seeing property values grow, but in the celebration of historic communities that have perservered and thrived in spite of some of worst conditions American society has seen. I have nothing but high hopes and admiration for both neighborhoods, an admiration that exists with full knowledge of the good and the bad that takes place here.
BTW, Crown Heights is an historic place name, not a real estate gimmick. Crown Heights North merely denotes the neighborhood north of Eastern Parkway, which is very different, architecturally, historically and demographically, than Crown Heights South. Nothing more, nothing less.
Furthermore, neighborhoods are not static. Part of BS/CH's history of being ignored by the city in terms of services, job creation, police, etc, comes from the embedded racist attitudes fostered over the years that let us simply stew in our closed communities, as drugs, gangs, crime, and hopelessness were allowed to eat us alive. In spite of that, ordinary law abiding middle class folks were buying and renovating homes, raising families, and joining with churches and civic leaders to get the protection and services we pay taxes for. I've been to many a community board meeting, police precinct council meeting and block association meeting in my day. We were determined to get our neighborhoods back from the thugs, and change the perception that we lived in a dirty, ugly, crime infested rathole. Well, we must have succeeded, to a great degree.
With this success comes new people. With new people come higher prices. I agree that in many cases, prices skyrocketed beyond what was sane for the slow, sustained growth of these communities. I hope that our economic wobbling in 2008, and a new appreciation by Joe Public of how the real estate market affects the economy, as well as some house cleaning politically and on Wall St, all add up to some sanity in the housing market. But we will never see the $300K brownstone in prime BS again. We've gone too far beyond that. But there is no reason that same house should be a million, six, either. That is indeed, insane.
Finally - regarding ass kissing Brownstoner (???), white folks like Dave, in the hood, or anyone else you may not approve of, you are entitled to your own opinion. As I said, I kiss no one's ass. I believe in working with ANYONE who is about the same business as I am - making my community better. If improved services did not come until the white folks did, then thank you, white folks. That says more about those who provide those services than it does about the people who move into the community. I can't change society by myself. Racist, classist, and sexist idiots will promote their agendas no matter what any of us do. If we band together with those who have the same goals, in this case, a safe, clean, and prosperous community, we will defeat them. If we insist on clinging to old ideas, old prejudices and old strategies, we will lose everything we have worked so hard to get and hold onto. It's that simple for me.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at July 23, 2008 11:54 AM
Hey VanBuren. I already own a two bedroom coop so the rental equation is not part of my thinking. But the fact that I am going to buy a two family house and that rents will presumably continue to climb over the years is what makes me feel like I am still making a good choice despite the downturn in the market. Provided the mortgage process goes as I hope (a big if no doubt) then I think that my decision will be a good one. As I said I plan on owning this home for decades.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2008 11:55 AM
Right on Montrose. I always appreciate reading what you have to say and that was a particularly loathesome charge by the What. At the same time he/she/they (and these days I think "they" is the most likely description of whoever is posting as the What) probably enjoyed getting you all worked up.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2008 12:02 PM
Morris you came in this forum attacking me. I don't know the reasoning but I shot back and now you underwear is twisted up in a knot.
You came attacking me first and I don't know the reason.. At this point Morris you disgust me! I think of you as a Uncle Yom and Ass kisser! I know that The Armstrong Williams of the world have a place too. Maybe you can get a guest appearance on the Bill O'Reily show showing that slavery was good for Black people. Blow Me!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 23, 2008 12:54 PM
Great post, Montrose! if ever anyone on this blog posts sanely and rationally, it's you. when I moved to Crown Heights North to be closer to friends, I didn't realize what a great neighborhood it really was. Other than stating, yes- I am well aware CHN has its problems, this is a gutsy, warm and strong neighborhood with a wealth of good-hearted, hard working people. CHN shows what happens when residents persevere throughout the years of crime, drugs, racism and city neglect. CHN stands on its own thanks to them and their hard won fight to get landmarking. White people didn't come and do that- that fight began years ago with long-time residents and homeowners who knew what a great neighborhood they had.
It's a little weird to be a white person who moved here and to say I don't want the neighborhood to change (well, ok- one great coffee shop with pastry would be nice) into the next place for trendy hipsters. I want crime to go down and life to be better for those who live here now. And I think one of the interesting things about CHN is that it doesn't need to be "discovered" by hipsters or gentrifiers. Landmarking made a lot of people take notice of CHN's can-do attitude. More services and businesses are coming here because of the people who are here already.
I do have to offer an apology to MM- er...I didn't notice that I brought along any services when I moved here. Hope you weren't depending on me for that great restaurant or book store! :-)
What- i don't see where MM says anything other than the truth regarding neighborhoods. You're arguing apples and oranges - It isn't only about property values- it's about quality of life values. No one is going to tell you CHN or BS will ever be Brooklyn Heights or the UES, but quality of life isn't just about what money buys you.That's what MM is referring to.
Personally I think he/she/whatever views their house as a home first, investment second. I assume he bought at a good price 6 years ago, and since it was a home, he is invested in the neighborhood itself. Because when you choose a home, that's far more important than if you simply look at a building as a financial investment.
Just my take as a not-bitter renter. I don't have to live in CHN, but I choose to. And of course I do realize I don't have the same perspective from a financial standpoint, but a home is a home is a home.
Posted by: bxgrl at July 23, 2008 12:58 PM
VanBuren, gentrification is extremely complicated. It involves looking at the history of a neighborhood. It also involves race, class, education, money, job opportunities, or lack thereof, land use, and so much more. I think it is inevitable, yet needs to be controlled. It is inherently unfair to those who are least able to do anything about it, yet the perks for those better off are undeniable.
Because Bed Stuy/Crown Heights are so huge, we will always have a higher crime rate than smaller neighborhoods with similar demographics. Because we will always have pockets of extreme poverty, usually centered around SOME housing projects, but not always, we are going to have street crime, violent crime, vandalism, etc. There are still too many drug dealers out there, and they live all over, not just in the projects. There is still far too much poverty, lack of education and lack of jobs and opportunities.
The victims of violent crime have not been the gentrifiers, or even the old timers. They have been the young, and often the innocent, who have been in the wrong place at the wrong time. We, as a community, need to be outraged at their deaths, or injuries. It's a fact that society, and the media specifically, does not treat victims equally. We only need to see the media frenzy over an attractive white female victim, and contrast the media INattention to a black or Latin victim of the same kind of crime. Until all life is precious, we will never lose the very real impression that these "lesser" losses of life are just par for the course for "those people". Is it not wonder that people in our communities are angry, bitter, and then in turn, lash out at some innocent hipster just walking home?
That's the down side of gentrification - that those who have nothing are constantly pushed out of their communities by mostly young people who are in turn, only looking for a cheap, reasonable place to live. The resentment is misplaced, but certainly understandable.
We have the space, the building stock, and the land to accommodate everyone, in a fair and equitable and livable way. Believe me, if I could, I would wave my hand, and people would be able to live together, respect each other, and get up and go to a decent job and come home to a decent home, and enjoy varied amenities that encourage investment and growth, as well as a good time.
I wish I had easy, doable solutions to these real problems. I guess all we can do is to do our best to be real neighbors, friends and community members. Join local community organizations, churches, block associations, etc. Be a pain in the butt to local politicians and get involved however and wherever we can. We, ultimately, make our communities what they are.
Sorry to preach, but this is something I have been thinking a lot about lately.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at July 23, 2008 1:00 PM
What, I did not attack you, I simply asked a question, and I asked you to provide solutions, not just diatribe. I asked nicely, and you called me an Uncle Tom. The panties in a wad are yours, not mine.
Uncle Yom much be a long lost Jewish relative I didn't know I had, but I can certainly assure you that I'd have to think about spitting on Bill O'Reilly if he was on fire. I hardly think anything I have ever said makes me an apologist for slavery, but you are entitled to your very erroneous opinion.
Hey, I ain't mad at you, either. You have your ways, I have mine. I think mine are better. I just ask for basic respect in expressing my opinions, as I have always respected you and your views. OK?
Posted by: Montrose Morris at July 23, 2008 1:10 PM
What you DB....MM's first post at 11:50 said nothing about you. Christ, how can you be so consistently wrong and such a consistent fool???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2008 1:13 PM
Wow, What. In all honesty, how did Montrose attack you? He simply asked for what you thought would be a solution, and if far more polite terms than say, Dave might. And Montrose is one of the posters who has never put you down or posted a response that didn't treat you respectfully. Nor did he do so today. So I don't understand why you feel someone asking you hard questions in a forum you started to get feedback is an attack? It clearly wasn't- Montrose even says you have good things to say. How does this make Montrose an ass-kisser or an Uncle Tom? Because you and I both know that is so not the case.
Posted by: bxgrl at July 23, 2008 1:14 PM
and yet again you are correct bxgrl...MM was far more polite at 1:10 than I was at 1:13.
I just believe he doesn't deserve the respect anymore, human being or not.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2008 1:18 PM
"So what should we do about it then? What, you seem to be so down on people who invested in communities like Bed Stuy, yet you seem to also have nothing but scorn for those who buy in tonier nabes like Park Slope, because they may have vastly overpaid, by your estimates."
This is not "asking me a question" bxgrl! Especially the part of "yet you seem to also have nothing but scorn for those who buy in tonier nabes like Park Slope," This is NOT ASKING me a question!
Here rattle this in your brain: "I think you have good things to say, when you want to. I hope you can start to suggest solutions, as well as to be the town crier of doom."
How in the hell is this "asking" me a question?!
"I just believe he doesn't deserve the respect anymore, human being or not."
Hey Dave, I thought you was going to leave me alone.
I will tell you Asshats something right now! If any of you have a problem with my post do not read them or respond to the. That will make your life easier and mine too! Don't respond just let it go!!!!!!!!
The What (Don't bother)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 23, 2008 1:41 PM
I bought my house in CHS last fall and have begun a major restoration process. I know I'm underwater but so is my personal trading accounts, 401k account and my tradebook at work! In contrast to that, last year was glorious....can't win 'em all. If you're alive right now you're probably down or flat this year.
Posted by: moreteasir at July 23, 2008 1:42 PM
..I look at it like this.....I'm 32 and I've been blessed enough to purchase a magnificent home as my first piece of property. If I didn't buy my house it'll all have gone to city rent or to a porsche dealer....or a combination of the two! ...as irresponsible as I can be, I still saved for a rainy day and I can afford to be underwater. I recognize most can't....but as a person that has benefited from bubbles....(stock and women) who am I to complain now!
Posted by: moreteasir at July 23, 2008 2:03 PM
I don't know why I'm doing this, but.....
What, my first sentence was a question - "so what can we do about it then?" followed by "are we all bitter renters or sorry buyers?" Nothing I said, including my statements in between, regarding your perceptions of people who buy in Park Slope or Bed Stuy, should have triggered your paranoia. If you're that touchy, then no wonder Dave and others make you go up in flames.
I'd like to think even people who vastly disagree can have an intelligent discussion about their ideas and philosophies. More and more, that does not seem to be true. Sad, really.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at July 23, 2008 2:41 PM
This is the smartest thing that the people referred to as "The What" have ever written and we would be very wise to heed it as it would make he/she/it/them go away...
"I will tell you Asshats something right now! If any of you have a problem with my post do not read them or respond to the. That will make your life easier and mine too! Don't respond just let it go!!!!!!!!"
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2008 2:50 PM
wasder- sometimes (and I should know :-) ) you just have to work through the stuff. Part of the problem is that it's difficult to discern the mood or attitude with which something is posted (I have offered conciliatory chocolates to MMTRH yesterday), and it becomes easy to read something into a post that wasn't meant to be. In this case it goes to the nature of starting a forum thread and then being upset by discussion. I don't mean the insults and such that have gone back and forth because those are upsetting - but for those of us who really want to have discussions, and both offer something and learn something from other posters, this is a real problem.
I've posted, just my own thoughts and opinions, like everyone else, and gotten maliciously raked over the coals for it. Not well, mind you, by people laying out ideas and points to counter mine- just arrogant a**holes who think insulting someone for the fun of it makes them automatically look so much more intelligent without having to do any work.
I have to say whenever I've asked What a question or posted one in general, he has been more than willing to give me information without telling me I'm loony or have hamsters in my head or I must live in a basement apartment and steal food from my landlord.
I am surprised he went off on Montrose because I think what he didn't see was that Montrose does respect his smarts and if he didn't, he wouldn't have asked What for his ideas on solutions.
What- when you're venting it's really hard to tell sometimes what the real point is you're trying to make. You know on brownstoner if you ask for feedback you're going to get it, and sometimes even when you don't ask :-). But there is a big difference between someone attacking and someone simply putting you on the spot for an answer, and again, if MM didn't think you had anything worthwhile to say, he wouldn't have bothered. It's a forum- without the back and forth it wouldn't exist. Besides, where would we be if you hadn't given us the classic "Asshat" and "Fucktard"?
Posted by: bxgrl at July 23, 2008 3:41 PM
I have to agree with What, I read the MM posts and I feel there was some animosity - slightly passive agressive, and a little defensive, to boot. What has good points to make, and the all the "asshats" and the 'fucktards" make it oh so much more entertaining to read...sort of like our own local "Lewis Black" only in Brownstone Brooklyn. Sputtering, stuttering angry words - we need more of that, not less. I for one appreciate that over the usual tight-lipped, white-knuckle, over-educated navel-gazing analysis. Look where all these smarty-pants bankers got us in the first place. Securitized debt. It's a joy and a wonder, isn't it. White collar crime, you gotta love it.
Posted by: cobblehiller at July 23, 2008 4:22 PM
bxgrl I kind of like ya (No seriously)! When we have a dialogue you don't try to throw rocks at me. You ask me a question without judging the outcome. Please re- read MM question to me. "So what should we do about it then? What, you seem to be so down on people who invested in communities like Bed Stuy, yet you seem to also have nothing but scorn for those who buy in tonier nabes like Park Slope, because they may have vastly overpaid, by your estimates. MM is a self centered Asshat that wants to score some points on me!
bxgrl for almost one year I have been fried on this Blog. I post facts from Main Stream Media to support my theory that we are going to have the greatest financial crash in American history. People want to ignore the dangers to our financial system because they had a hand in it. The Asshats are seeing their dream getting crushed everyday and guess what?! I will be here banging away on this topic!
"Look where all these smarty-pants bankers got us in the first place. Securitized debt. It's a joy and a wonder, isn't it. White collar crime, you gotta love it."
You know what cobblehiller. This statement hits the mark and the sad thing is they are doing it right in our faces....
To all Asshats! If you want to have a dialogue with me without the bullshit, then OK. But if you cross that line with me then, I will open up the .50 cal right at you!
The What (Brooklyn's finest!)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 23, 2008 10:57 PM
What, I have never treated you with anything other than respect. I don't call you names, I don't belittle your ideas or your intelligence. I don't know why one simple statement, in which I wondered why you single out the Park Slopers for overpaying, and the Bed Stuyers for buying in the hood, should cause you to have a meltdown. It's a legitimate statement. I was honestly asking you what you felt people should do: overpay in one nabe or buy in what is considered a dangerous ghetto. What is the alternative, as there seems to be no middle ground with you? You are, or were, in the RE game, you know people have to live somewhere, yet for the last year, every open house, every house or apartment of the day, every recent sale has a post from you warning us to beware the end, or deriding sellers or buyers for feeding into the Mutant Real Estate Bubble. I was simply asking you to elaborate on alternatives. Apparently, you can't do that.
For my pains, I get attacked by you, and psychoanalysed rather inaccurately by one of your fans. You may not like that I can deal with The Man, you may not like my politics, my neighborhood, or the way I write, you may not like anything about me whatsoever, I can't help that, and I really don't care. But - I will continue to treat you with respect, because that is how I want to be treated, in turn. If you can't do that, then you are the one looking like an royal asshat, not me. The ball is in your court.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at July 24, 2008 12:45 AM
Well, What- i seriously kinda like you too. And despite the rants and such, you don't make a point without posting a link to back up what you say. You have gotten fried on the blog- sometimes you're a sitting duck for it (don't feel bad- just look at my record on brownstoner!) but i see lots of times you post and get jumped on just because it's you. People egg you on because they have fun doing it (and again, there isn't a one of us who hasn't been on the receiving end). You're passionate and angry at what's going on- to tell you the truth if more of us had been angry earlier, maybe we wouldn't be in this mess.
People are afraid, What- I know I am. It's really scary out there and I would love most of what you say to not happen. So if I can rephrase MM's question, can I ask- what would you do? With all the points you've raised, what should we be looking at doing? Because really we need solutions and creative thinking on how to fix the system. I know MM, we've met at one of the b'stoner events and it wasn't his intention to score points on you. I know for a fact MM thinks you make good points and have even more to contribute. And he is just as passionate about what he believes in.
I just think you can't expect (actually no one can expect) everyone to agree on what the future holds. Part of the fun (?) of a blog is the give and take and it can get rough. But you must like the brownstoner community enough to keep posting and asking for feedback on your forum. well, in any case it's certainly more fun when you're posting than when you're not. (Loved the German accent!)
Posted by: bxgrl at July 24, 2008 1:07 AM
...I'll allow one kiss, no tongue bxgrl!
Posted by: moreteasir at July 24, 2008 9:02 AM
I have no fun anymore.
Posted by: bxgrl at July 24, 2008 9:56 AM
Ok Morris.. I was going to type a long winded response to your last post but, I don't want to. I think it's better for us no to have any dialogue. PLEASE JUST GO AWAY MORRIS!
bxgrl "People are afraid, What- I know I am. It's really scary out there and I would love most of what you say to not happen." This is a good thing. You see being afraid means you understand what the hell is going on! That means you are in tune with the now/.
What to do? I have little money in the bank (just to pay bills). I'm in all cash and metals (Mostly silver). I keep large jars of change (for metal content). I work for myself so I wont get fired LMAO. I got my house under PMI and now I trying to sell it, ether way no one will pay their mortgage LOL.
You see bxgrl if you go back to my old posts, I told the Asshats from last year that big Banks was insolvent! Most of the things I have said is coming true and when the implosion pops off the fall, no one will be able to deny it!
BTW Wow 48 posts in the forum! That has to a record...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 24, 2008 10:00 AM
What- Why sell now? And are you buying again or just going to wait and see what happens next? And what does metal have to do with it all? (Listen- you're dealing with someone whose understanding of the financial markets is :Jesus saves, Moses invests. So ya gotta be patient here). I've been in the arts all my life and I'm probably the classic "make art, not money" type and I'm always shocked to learn there are those who actually can do both.Oh well, maybe in my next lifetime:-)
Posted by: bxgrl at July 24, 2008 10:40 AM
What- Why sell now? Because CASH will be king in the next couple of months! Cash Cash Cash! Good ole FRN! I need to have as much cash that I can get!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 24, 2008 10:50 AM
Dear What,
I had a dream about you the other night.
In the dream, I somehow figured out that your name stands for w-HAT, with the "W" representing the shape of a pair of butt cheeks. In other words: "w-hat" = "asshat".
I'm not saying it makes sense. It was just a dream. But I thought you would be pleased to hear that you've invaded the subconscious mind of one of your readers.
Regards,
StuyMom
Posted by: StuyMom at July 24, 2008 11:23 AM
Sell...and do what? Live in the wilderness with a can of poke-n-beans and a boy scout knife? You make alot of sense (at times) but life still has to go on...even in bust cycles. So I guess I should sell my house, car, empty my trading accounts and sit on money that'll depreciate anyway? It's simply unreasonable to suggest that....even with as bad as it's gotten and will get in the coming months.
Suggestion: live life, why complain about the peas during a steak dinner? Is your life all about the equity (positive and negative) in your house? Does a car accident mean I should stop driving?
This isn't the first catastrophe for anyone on this blog. Life is a series of problems and every time you solve one, another is waiting to take it's place. Playing it safe is the riskiest choice we can make. Is it a good time to buy a house? If you have a good down payment, good credit, the financials make sense and someone will give you a loan, why not? You must learn to have confidence when you're only half sure. They'll always be someone with a reason why you shouldn't do everything...if the pitch looks good, swing the damn bat.....eff the peanut gallery.
Posted by: moreteasir at July 24, 2008 11:27 AM
I'll be blunt- I wish I were more like that. it just seems some people are more able to seize the day, as it were. Still- never too late.
Loved the line "if the pitch looks good, swing the damn bat..."
Posted by: bxgrl at July 24, 2008 11:45 AM
StuyMom I think Freud would like to talk to you...
moreteasir let me explain this to and others, At this point you do not have to respond to my posts. If you don't like my POV please just move on to the next post, it will make your life easier and mine too.
I'm not going to argue with people anymore. I know that time is short and that's the only thing that matters. If anyone want to have dialogue with me without the bullshit please feel free to respond but to others please leave me alone (I'm dead serious)...
Washington Mutual is dead...
S&P cuts Washington Mutual to just above junk
http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUKN2349502620080723
Volume is very high and as of this time the price of this stock is 3.77
WAMU INC 3.77 -18.92 137141504 <- volume
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
See why I not auguring any more this shit is in your face!
Posted by: what at July 24, 2008 12:05 PM
On the contrary, I do like your posts. Why would an optimistic view mean that I'm somehow not interested in your perspective? Can you only hear your own voice? I assumed you were interested in a discussion but your statement suggests this is a lecture. Unfortunate.
Posted by: moreteasir at July 24, 2008 12:15 PM
You know what moreteasir lets get into today, July 23 2008. I'm time like this extraordinary things happen!
I'm watching to fourth largest bank go down the drain. So screw you pompous bullshit!
Washington Mutual
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WM&t=1y
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at July 24, 2008 12:25 PM
Uhm, hello...What...so what's the answer? When is the implosion? How much worse do you think it's going to get?
(I'm a little worried about the hoarding coins part.)
Posted by: cobblehiller at July 24, 2008 2:51 PM
Ok so....just so I can understand this a bit better...
You want us optimists to ignore your pessimism on an optimistic site that wants you to ignore it....
life is good, even if your life sucks.
Posted by: moreteasir at July 24, 2008 4:37 PM
Ok moreteasir, here I come. I'm on track to make good money this year. The recession has hurt me a little and high gas prices are eating into my bottom line.
"life is good, even if your life sucks." See this is my point, how do you know my life sucks?
When I try to have a dialogue the Asshats come out in full force. Did you see the price action on WAMU?! I'm very happy not to bank there!
"You want us optimists to ignore your pessimism on an optimistic site that wants you to ignore it...."
America is being ASSRAPED right in front of you face. The Big Boys are stripping everything they can get their hands on and you know whats sad? If Obama takes office, you dumbasses will blame him for everything! This whole MREB is a God damn joke...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 24, 2008 9:37 PM
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