Prices will go down?

You can wait if you'd like but of the first rules of thumb in real estate is to not try to time the market.

Especially in New York. You have no idea if this is the bottom, the top, the middle until it's too late. If prices do drop 10%, we won't know until it's too late and I think most sane people can agree that in the long run , NYC real estate will go up.

If you have the money now, I'd suggest you look at enough places to know what the market it like and then buy something when you fall in love with a place.

If you follow that advice, you will never feel bad about your purchase. Even if you spent what you think was a lot of money for it. It's your home and the most important place and purchase in your life. Make it a home and enjoy everything Brooklyn has to offer and don't think about the financial aspect too much.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 3:13 PM

Agreed about not trying to time them market. Yes, your home is an investment, but its your home first and foremost. You won't be selling it the week after you buy it, so stop thinking like a day trader. Look for a house that you love at a price you can afford, and when you find it, take the plunge. There is no such thing as "real estate prices," just prices for individual homes. Whatever happens to houses and apartments in NYC collectively over the next 6 months may or may not happen to the house /coop/condo that you are interested in buying and living in. In my experience, there is always strong demand for homes in good shape at good locations, and prices reflect that.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 3:23 PM

I don't have any idea if the market will go down, and I don't think anyone else does either. I'm glad I didn't believe people who told me the market was going to go down when I bought mid-1995. (Which was certainly the peak of market hype, but apparently not the peak of prices.)

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 3:26 PM

All Housing will be worthless once AY is built!

Just Kidding, mimick of the AY Robot...

Seriously though, the best time to buy is when you are financially ready and find the place you really want at the price you can afford.

Many posters on this site have been waiting years to buy and now they are pushing this impending doom agenda so they can feel vindicated. Well, in reality they will be waiting forever. If you want something and you can afford it - go for it.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 3:28 PM

On the other hand, you didn't say whether or not you wanted to live it in, or just buy one (as an investment, presumably, and not necessarily for the long term.)

If you want to live in it, by all means, go find yourself a home you like and go for it. If you are at all picky, even if you are willing to spend whatever the market is, it is not as easy as one might think to find the right home for you, once you take into consideration size, layout, and condition of the apartment; light; street noise levels; proximity to subways, stores, and restaurants; financial and physical condition of the building; coop policies on purchasers (you may not meet them, or they could make finding the approvable buyer tough when you sell) and on subletting; and competition from others with more coop friendly finances who are willing to bid more for a really nice apartment.

But we who look for homes we love should be aware that not everyone is capable of thinking of a home that way - to some people, they remain mainly investments, even if they live in it.

If you are thinking soley (or primarily) as an investor, as it certainly sounds to me like you may be, then (1) don't buy a coop, because you may have to live there even if you don't want to, due to subletting restrictions, (2) don't buy in a small building, even if it is a condo, as because you will have to work with your co-owners to maintain and repair the building, something most investors don't think about, and (3) look to buy only something that you feel is underpriced compared to what you perceive as market at that time - because somebody wants a quick sale, perhaps.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 4:07 PM

"to some people, they remain mainly investments, even if they live in it"

and by some people, i'm guessing you mean idiots?

homes have never been good inventements. until 5 or 6 years ago, you'd have been doing just as well keeping your money in a CD. home prices historically have risen about 5% a year.

"If you are thinking soley (or primarily) as an investor, as it certainly sounds to me like you may be"

I see absolutely nothing in the OP's comment that would lead me to believe they are looking to buy an investment property.

I think you like hearing the sound of your own voice, so to speak.

Your advice was all childish.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 4:22 PM

Many people who buy coops and condos do so primarily as an investment, even if they live there, because they are buying their first property, and can predict that they will want to sell in just a few short years so yeah, that is buing primarily as an investment, if they are trying to be sure that they won't lose money on the sale when they sell in a few short years. Many hold on only to these apartments only two years before they move on to something bigger, and aren't interested in holding the property for the long run. I have found those are the usually ones who, like the poster, are trying to time the market. Others are just looking for a home they can see being happy in a decade from now, and aren't so worried about interim price fluctuations.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 5:08 PM

Well the original poster very clearly just stated they are not looking for an investment, they are looking for a home.

Everyone, in an ideal world wants to try to time the market. No one likes to overpay for things they don't have to.

You might want to quit while you're behind, 5:08.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 5:18 PM

I've known many couples who bought not-very-large apartments, and planned to sell in two years, once they had kids. Those who bought in the late 80s and sold shortly thereafter did sold at a loss - they had only seen the run-ups in prices in the 80's, didn't realize the market could fall so fast, and many regretted buying spaces they knew they would outgrow soon, only to sell at a loss. So it really does make sense to consider how much of an investor one really is, depending on the length of one's outlook. Even if the market does fall in 4 or 5 months, that doesn't mean it won't fall further. Not many people can time the market, though they try, so the length of time one plans to stay in the apartment is a critical factor in deciding whether to buy an apartment in this uncertain market.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 5:35 PM

A lot of people who were interested in our very reasonably priced (we'd already bought another place so we were motivated sellers) prime North Park Slope co-op last year, passed on making an offer because they thought prices in Park Slope would go down in early 2007. Because of all the doom and gloom people on Brownstoner. They actually told our broker they thought they could pick up great deals in early 2007 so they were waiting. Boy were those buyers wrong. Like everyone is saying, don't time the market if everything else financially makes sense for you to buy. But, if it's a stretch for you financially and you are in a cheap rent control apartment, it can be just as smart to keep paying low rent and sock away as much as you can in savings each month. I'm gung ho on buying, and even I can say that. Cheap rent control apartment in NYC can be the same as ownership if you are putting a lot of money into savings.

Posted by: guest at September 21, 2007 5:46 PM

We closed on Thursday without giving it a thought. It's your home, not a mutual fund!

Posted by: guest at September 22, 2007 6:11 AM

If you like a place and you can afford it; buy it. Then stop looking at anything real estate related in the paper or on-line for about 18 months. If you do, you'll inevitably see something else for cheaper and wonder why you didn't wait. It will give you undue stress. Wouldn't you rather just be happy in your new home? I guess what I'm saying is "Ignorance is bliss".

Posted by: guest at September 22, 2007 8:21 AM

this thread is pointless really

Posted by: guest at September 22, 2007 9:15 AM

In response to Chuck at 10:23 PM, of course it's about location, nobody would disagree with that.

The thing that differs wildly though, are the current prices in the already good location, and the current prices in the future good location. The future being speculative of course. It's the speculation part that the skill comes in. There's not much skill to buying in an already good location. You just need the money. Lots of it.

Posted by: guest at September 22, 2007 3:02 PM

I think the transactions costs involved in buying a house (i.e. title insurance + mortgage recording taxes at purchase and transfer taxes + broker fees when you sell) are so high that you need to own for more than 5 years. I think my closing costs were about 5% of purchase price and guess that costs at selling are 7%-8% of sale price. That means you need about 15% appreciation to break-even.

Posted by: guest at September 22, 2007 3:10 PM

or you can sell by owner.

i did it and it's simple.

my closing costs were $3000.

you got ripped off.

Posted by: guest at September 22, 2007 3:43 PM

There are two ways to look at buying a home: financial and emotional.

For financial components you should pull out a spreadsheet or look for some of the calculators online comparing renting to buying. The NY Times has one that has many of the variables including closing and selling costs to help give you some financial facts.

I'm not sure if their starting points are relevant to NYC - they seem a bit high since they're all % of purchase price.

For the emotional aspect - buyer's remorse is common. There's also non-buyer's remorse. These are typically not very long lived. Whereas uncomfortable financial decisions can have long repercussions.

I'd make sure the finances make sense to you and that you have some cushion - don't overextend yourself for a home.

Unless the person saying it is either a real estate psychic with a history of correct statements or has a firm offer themselves (they'll sell you something you want cheaper in a few months) then I'd stake more on your own intelligence and research.

Good luck!

Posted by: guest at September 23, 2007 2:54 PM

OP: not sure what your age group or your investment strategy style is? But, surmising if I may, take 8:21's advice.

Relatively young folks w/ 401k's who are closely monitoring and changinng their growth strategies daily right now because the stock market is volatile are being silly. In the real estate market right now, it is important to be clear on your investment style and strategy - growth, passive etc.

If you're in the growth strategy group don't worry so much right now - just recognize and accept there will be volatility (drop 15% in 1yr and up 10% in another) - then just LIVE for a while (don't worry about home value - worry about making a HOME). If the safety strategy (for short term players) is your play, then real estate is not an option for you now.

Posted by: guest at September 23, 2007 8:18 PM