Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Not too shabby!
Open House Picks 9/18/09 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
57 Comments
By BoerumHill on March 19, 2010 12:47 PM
By Park_loper on March 19, 2010 12:52 PM
The sky isn't falling, it's just drifting down slowly...
By BSD on March 19, 2010 12:59 PM
Halsey place says its in contract.
By smug on March 19, 2010 1:34 PM
along with boerumhill, i am also waiting for more commentary filled with buzzwords from economics textbooks without understanding of the real meaning.
By more4less on March 19, 2010 1:46 PM
bullish outcome - 3 out of 4
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:09 PM
1) State street sold at big discount
2) Park Slope house was very pretty, 4 stories, great location, during super slim inventory
3) Sterling final price unknown
4) Halsey TBD
So I'd hold the cheers, bulls.
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 2:10 PM
Broker for 270 Sterling pretty much sums up my analysis...
"This house has been reduced from $2,000,000 to $1,500,000 to bring it in line with today's economy!"
And "in contract" for what, $1,500,000? Maybe, maybe less.
Same thing for Halsey, what did it go into contract for?
State and 7th closings show how everyone's getting an upgrade provided their income hasn't come down. Park Slope shoppers are more and more affording Brooklyn Heights. Fort Greene shoppers are more and more affording Park Slope.
The crash is happening even before the fugazi reGOVery ends.
By and large, it takes a loss to clear the inventory.
How is outcome bullish if prices are reduced, more4less? Volume HAS to peak before prices bottom. That's how this slow motion capitulation is going to work.
smug,
capitulation = market-wide firesale
insolvency (our banking system) = submerged in losses (hidden from the general public for now - like what Lehman did 'til they could'nt...like Greece did 'til they couldn't...like Enron did 'til they couldn't...like Worldcom did 'til they couldn't...)
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:16 PM
Also, Mr. B - you should fix typo on Sterling to show it was orig $2mil. 25% discount off latest ask, not to mention final price... As for PS, 4-story houses in that prime location were more at peak, so getting even that much under ask shows a still cooling market that could just as easily cool more - what economic fundamentals are there to support otherwise?
By smug on March 19, 2010 2:17 PM
i bet the 70% rise in the S&P last year really cleaned out BHO's short positions.
No wonder he seems so angry.
By antidope on March 19, 2010 2:22 PM
mm-
1) big discount to what? its own ask. is that a comp? that ppty had serious issues like a big fat bldg stealing light next door so i think it was hard to price.
2) go read your own comment on park slope house. this is how you drive people nuts. way overpriced now means 6% off ask?
3) price unclear but we can probbaly all agree it will probably close, thereby helping define market price.
4) ditto.
this is not data but anecdotal evidence that volume is coming back to the market. we'll have to wait for the 3-6 month reporting lag to confirm, but i have no doubt.
there is no doubt that where we are today form 12 months ago is a big surprise to any bear willing to be honest with herself.
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 2:30 PM
"without understanding of the real meaning"
Oh, I misunderstood you, smuggie wuggie. I thought it was you who didn't understand. Hence, the glossary.
No, I know better than to fuck around with those margin calls. Market's too manipulated to time.
Not angry, just patient. I'm impressed with the government's ability to buy time though.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:33 PM
Antidope - Re: 7th St when I first said it was way overpriced, I hadn't seen it yet. I went to the OH, and must confess I loved the house. Also, weirdly, the brokers on the website understated the width which was almost 17' (not 16' as they stated). Those few inches do make a difference! In person it had a great layout, beautiful details, felt sunny, etc. And the location couldn't be beat. That said, I do still think it fetched a high price in this market - I would have pegged it, after seeing it, in the 1.7s (and thus, still a significant discount from ask/peak comps). So am I surprised? Yes, to be honest. But I chalk up the sale to such slim pickings. An uptick in inventory could change that. And I also think the properties that cause surprises in this market tend to be the gems (like this one), not the "diamonds in the rough".
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 2:33 PM
Bottom line, apart from any non-evidence that BHO spouts, the market has bottomed, inventory is low and THINGS ARE SELLING.
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:35 PM
Yes, DIBS, cheer on. And then come up with excuses next time there's bad news, which is usually the case with OH6ML.
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 2:38 PM
Asks tend to be comps when they're first set.
Where we are since 12 months ago is a big suprise indeed. We're nowhere! The losses are still out there, uncleared. Legalized accounting fraud, like from 1929 to 1932, has us all giddy thinking there's nothing but sunshine ahead. Another big suprise is how Bernanke and the NY Fed knew that Lehman was about to collapse months before it did but gets reconfirmed!
That's honesty. The so-called "recovery" is not.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:43 PM
Well, if we're going to talk economics, what about the report Moody's is talking about downgrading US debt ratings:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/business/global/16rating.html?scp=1&sq=AAA%20bond%20rating&st=cse
Longterm interest rate rise = housing prices damped further?
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 2:43 PM
Miss Muffett, apparently all of today's OH6ML have sold and Halsey St is in contract.
How hard do you need to be hit over the head?????
By slopefarm on March 19, 2010 2:44 PM
"Asks tend to be comps when they're first set."
That's a cop out. Post some comps if you think these are waay off peak. I have no idea but I'm not staking out a position the way you are.
By more4less on March 19, 2010 2:44 PM
BHO, aint speaking for others but just for me. when I see stuff selling for prices that I deem "wow, expensive", I'm impressed and when it's 3 out of 4, bullish.
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 2:46 PM
Evidence, DIBS.
http://lehmanreport.jenner.com/
Accounting games are everywhere.
"the market has bottomed"
vs
"THINGS ARE SELLING [at losses]"
Contradiction. Bear market has everything to do with the direction of price. Higher volume means sellers are having a cognitive dissonance attack.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:48 PM
But DIBS, only 2 of the 3 prices is confirmed. One (7th) is admittedly, IMO high for this market, but still well below peak. State St seems well below peak as well. And Sterling may be even more below peak. So doesn't seem bullish to me.
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 2:50 PM
I know, m4L, but when compared to peak, prices are less expensive. That's bearish. Rising volume doesn't necessarily mean it's a bull market.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 2:51 PM
Of course they are below peak. that's not the issue. the isssue is that there's no inventory (yeah I know, it's coming, blah, blah, blah...you gyuys been saying that for 18 months) and things are selling quite rapidly now at prices 5-15% below ask.. THESE ARE NOT SIGNS OF A WEAK MARKET.
I don't care about condos/coops.
By more4less on March 19, 2010 2:51 PM
if I use my own place as reference, it can probably sell for more than it would've prior to the crash. don't understand it but aint complaining either until I realize that means the house I want to buy is not dropping either.
Oh well, there's still my Lotto fallback plan - since my waiting strategy hasn't pan out yet
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 2:53 PM
below dropping asks, DIBS.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 2:56 PM
DIBS - what on earth do you think is grounds for turnaround? I can see, best case scenario for bulls, stabilization as an argument, but turnaround? Based on what? Whereas there are various shoes that could still drop to cause further slide and thus risk still seems to be tilted toward additional softening.
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 2:58 PM
I hope you people are happy where you live now because you are not going to see lower prices for brownstones.
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 3:00 PM
"yet". I love that word!
You got me on inventory, DIBS. I never thought that Washington and the FEDS would allow banks to sit on preforeclosures so long. In Detroit they're fucking bulldozing houses like they did crops during the GD! (Ah ha! Conspiracy theory: Macdonough!)
If the NYC market is turning around can you at least provide data that shows preforeclosures down from peak?
ANYBODY!!! Can we get a thread on this? It might just be bullish! ("Careful what you ask for, BHO")
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 3:03 PM
2:58 is all he's got, MM. Oh, and GE's dividend.
The fact that no one wants to discuss preforeclosures has me very suspicious. Even if they haven't spiked locally, the national epidemic will affect Wall St when it finally hits the balance sheet.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:03 PM
MM...inventory for brownstones is low and ain't going to dramatically increase. I didn't say prices were going to rise, just that they have bottomed.
My next prediction, seeing that my prediction that the end of 2009 would be the bottom for brownstone prices is apparently correct, is that prices will definitely be rising by the end of 2010.
By 2012 I will be able to sell mine at a profit including the extra $100k I put into it.
I don't know how long you've been buying and selling. I started in 1985. I smelled this in 1997-1998, more so in Philly than here. This market for brownstones is very, very tight and the contract activity is definitely accelerating.
You just wait. The tell tale sign will be the first time you see an open house cancelled-contract pending!!!!!!
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:04 PM
DIBS - based on what? Your wishful thinking? You can accuse me of wishful thinking too, but at least I am relying on a pattern of evidence that is pointing in one direction. How can you say with certainty that prices have bottomed?
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 3:05 PM
"I started in 1985."
Generations after the Great Depression. You are in unchartered territory my friend.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:07 PM
Wait for the Prudential Douglas Elliman First Quarter report, MM.
BHO, how old were you when interest rates were 18-20%?????
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 3:11 PM
"This market for brownstones is very, very tight..."
It was always tight, like lending was 'til 2003. Why didn't prices triple trough-to-peak before then postwar?
"...and the contract activity is definitely accelerating."
This is what happens when sellers lower their prices. The stalemate ceases. Fascinating, isn't it?
There will be another stalemate blinked away by buyers after the market bottoms years from now.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:13 PM
OK, DIBS, predicting a profit in 2012 + $100K is really straining your credibility now. Keep on wishing - we will indeed see.
By antidope on March 19, 2010 3:14 PM
1) state st. held for 40 years by same owner. no loss.
2) 7 st sold for 1.3 at end of 2004. no loss
3) 270 sterling = ? looks like it might have been a lot. no #s available
4) 146 halsey st sold for 775 (not still listed) and last traded for 500 in 2004. no losses
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 3:16 PM
"You can accuse me of wishful thinking too, but at least I am relying on a pattern of evidence that is pointing in one direction."
PWNED!
Age undisclosed, DIBS. To your point: rates will certainly go back up towards, not necessarily to, those numbers. High risk commands a high return. Fed will not continue to buy MBS's indefinitely. Private investors/bond holders want more than zero!
***Bid half off peak comps***
By Brownstones Half Off on March 19, 2010 3:22 PM
'dope,
1) You assume no refi of equity back down to water table. And no adjustment for inflation.
2) Where did comps peak out at though? Well in to the two's I bet.
3) Nice pad but they usually brag about high contract amounts.
4) 500k in '04 during headier times. That comp will return, easy.
***Bid half off peak comps***
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:24 PM
Rates may go to 6.0-6.5%. They will not approach 10% which is where they were in the late eighties/early nineties. Not many of you are old enough to remeber the late seventies/early eighties rate levels.
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:27 PM
MMhere's what will happen...
One of a few things....
1. The economy will continue to gradually improve albeit with small hiccups along the way. Brooklyn brownstones will be selling above peak comps in 2012. 33% probability
2. There will be a larger hiccup which would be Greece PLUS Spain PLUS Italy & Ireland defaulting...not just Greece alone. 33% probability
3. Israel will start a war with Iran. Oil will go to $200. 33% probability.
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:27 PM
Just to demonstrate the insanity of the peak - a 15' 3 story house between 5/6 in PS sold pre-crash for over 1.8! So a 17' 4 story one selling for less is well under that kind of nuttiness. I do see a boomlet of optimism right now so maybe that will indeed be reflected in the 1st Qtr Prudential report but really, where are the fundamentals to sustain this? Antidope, you actually prove a point I've made many times which is that, even at big discounts, many owners will still do just fine, given the crazy run up between 1998-2008.
By antidope on March 19, 2010 3:28 PM
1) no record of any mortgage on acris. mortgages get recorded. you can adjust for brazilian inflation, this guy still made money. no losses.
2) who knows but that house is not that big. i'd say it's 10% off peak comp, but just a guess. no losses.
3) who brags about contract prices. wtf are you talking about. really. who brags? show an example. personally, i've never seen a principal or agent talk about the contract price in a media article. not even in a blog.
4) 775 is > than 50% higher than 2004 price. something seriously malicious will need to occur to get there again. no losses.
sorry to burst your bear bubble, but these are solid #s.
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:33 PM
Look DIBS, we can talk til we're blue in the face (and I actually have to go now) but the fact is, your predictions are clearly coming from a place of wishful thinking. Granted, mine are too albeit girded by a lot more press about the situation in my favor. But even you admit that an increase in house prices by 2012 only has a 33% chance, so according to your logic, 66% chance that prices won't increase by then. The fed gov't has just poured TONS of $$ into the banking industry and interest rates are historically low - we'll see what happens when all the price supports wear off, and the chickens come home to roost with interest rates.
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:37 PM
So MM, you're basing all your assumptions on chickens coming home to roost????
Assumptions based on calculated probabilities are the worst assumptions you can make. You will almost ALWAYS be wrong.
The market has bottomed.
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:39 PM
Oh, and I forgot to mention in my comps post (about the 3 story 15' house that sold for over 1.8) that the 7th St house above was better location (between 6/7 Ave). 7th St house was not a small house BTW - about 17x45, and 4 stories - so almost 3000 feet.
By antidope on March 19, 2010 3:40 PM
your little story at 327p is an example of cherry picking you so often accuse others of. just saying.
any rate, i'd like to see that *comp* if you have an address.
and dibs is right, no one is arguing we're at peak pricing. i've been saying things look stable (since 12 mos) to upward trend (last 6) with pricing bottoming at 10-20% off depending on class (th/condo/coop and turnkey/needs work).
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:40 PM
Sorry DIBS, but how are your assumptions not based on probabilities? Your certitude is silly. Ugh, why bother - I'm signing off or I'll be late for my appointment!
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:43 PM
360 5 Street - sold for 1.875 in Feb 2008 - arguably right around the peak of the peak here in Bklyn.
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:44 PM
Ciibank just cut jumbo rates from 6.975% to 5.875%!!!!!! This was breaking news at 2:45.
**Brownstone Market Has Bottomed**
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 3:45 PM
Additionally, they announced a big program to expand the entire home mortgage business, including buying pre-existing mortgages from other banks.
By antidope on March 19, 2010 3:49 PM
360 5 street does not appear in se or acris. pls double check
By Miss Muffett on March 19, 2010 3:52 PM
See property shark. I think it might actually have been 362A or something like that, but in PS it shows up as 360.
By Petebklyn on March 19, 2010 4:22 PM
I think my 1st mortgage in 1986 was 11% and refi in 1991 at 9.25%.....conforming not jumbo
By antidope on March 19, 2010 4:30 PM
mystery comp doesn't appear as a sale, though some of those ppties are indeed 15 ft wide! just not sold recently.
By raphael9 on March 19, 2010 4:31 PM
"DIBS - based on what? Your wishful thinking? You can accuse me of wishful thinking too, but at least I am relying on a pattern of evidence that is pointing in one direction. How can you say with certainty that prices have bottomed? "
No one can say anything like that with certainty. If they were that successful they wouldn't be wiling away the hours on a blog in brooklyn.
Still, you have to look at historical trends over a long period. A lot of the houses that had to be sold are gone and there is a very good chance that would be sellers now can wait it out. You don't always need buying to turn a market, you just need the selling to stop.
That said, I believe we are closer to the bottom - in park slope vicinity - than one might think. That doesn't mean prices are going to rocket up, and they don't have to.
Let's all meet back here in a year and see what happened....
By daveinbedstuy on March 19, 2010 5:01 PM
"Let's all meet back here in a year and see what happened...."
There will be much weeping & gnashing of teeth by those who missed the bottom.
By BoerumHill on March 19, 2010 5:31 PM
Bottom line...THINGS ARE SELLING.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at March 19, 2010 2:33 PM
Deals are getting done. Without question we have moved past a period of stabilization, owners/realtors becoming more realistic in pricing, bids coming in closer to ask, and inventory (though still thin/low) is moving.
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Maybe 6-7% discount off original ask is the new 10-15% we had been seeing?
BHO, we eagerly await your analysis.