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October 9, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Comment: Better than some weeks!
Open House Picks 4/10/09 [Brownstoner]
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The 2nd St. house's sale price points up the argument people were making earlier this week about the HOTD in Carroll Gardens. 1.08 for a house in a more desirable part of the neighborhood is a pretty good benchmark.

Posted by: infinitejester at October 9, 2009 12:45 PM

don't these buyers know that prices are collapsing?
have they been living under a rock?
how idiotic does a buyer have to be to pay $172,000 above the appraised value?
surely, the pool of idiot buyers will dry up soon?

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 12:48 PM

I thought the South Oxford house was already listed in a previous "Where are they now?"

I'll point out that many thought this S. Oxford house was too narrow and wouldn't sell...Maggie is terrific. The owners had moved with their kids out of NYC. I'm glad they sold their house and can move on. Considering the house's small floor plan, they did a nice job with the renovation and the garden is really pretty.

That Carroll Gardens house looks tiny? Did anyone who visited it care to comment?

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at October 9, 2009 12:52 PM

bho/m4l : care to comment on your april comments?
i think m4l is coming around but
bho will remain incorrigible / determined / set in his ways; kind of like our last, non npp winning prez.

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 12:59 PM

Anyone have a clue about what prices should be on Classon, which I believe is the dividing line between CH and BS these days? I have my doubts about the basement rental floor plan, and the owners would surely have to put in a deck for garden access.

Posted by: mopar at October 9, 2009 1:06 PM

Oh, the 2nd Street house sold. I kept passing by that one wondering. Those little two story houses really appeal to me. I wish they were a little wider and higher-ceilinged, but still. Wow, and over a million .. . hm. I think there are some three bay two story ones on the same street . . . I can dream.

Posted by: Nomi at October 9, 2009 1:09 PM

"I'll point out that many thought this S. Oxford house was too narrow and wouldn't sell..."

Oh, yeah, that's the poor house that got all those insults for being so narrow .. . . one was particularly memorable, except, damn, I can't remember it. Owners DID do a great job with renovation considering the limitations.

Posted by: Nomi at October 9, 2009 1:13 PM

I know the Verandah Place carriage house well. There are pros AND cons to living right on Cobble Hill Park, plus the house is small and has virtually no outdoor space. It's nice, but IMHO, it's NOT $3.1 million or even $2.795 million nice. I'm totally mystified by the pricing. Granted it was 13 years ago, but in 1996 you could've had your pick of carriage houses on Verandah Place for $500,000. I'd much prefer to take my +/- $3 million and buy a "real" house elsewhere in Cobble Hill, or even in Brooklyn Heights these days.

Posted by: CarrollGardened at October 9, 2009 1:17 PM

Yes, Antelope, it is certainly fascinating what is going out there.

I guess financing costs are still very worthwhile. *I'm* certainly glad houses are selling at decent prices.

The South Oxford house is a one-family with no real possibility to be converted. I'm not sure about the other house that sold but I assume it's a one-family as well.

It seems the 1 to 1.5 million dollar range in good locations (either recently renovated, or an older renovation in need of new-owner update, or houses even needing a complete renovation) are still selling.

On another note, although it was bought when the market was higher last year, I am amazed that such a large renovation was done on the oddly laid out, double duplex clapboard on Cumberland. I knew past owners from many years ago. At the time the house was very interesting inside to say the least. I used to love the country cabin-like kitchen in the back with the little wood/coal stove in the middle of the room with the flue pipe rising to the ceiling, a lean-to woodshed in the back...cute like Francis Guy's paintings of Brooklyn (Heights) or a Currier and Ives print.

The house got quiet a redo and was in pretty good shape when it sold for a nearly 2 million dollars. Maybe the new owners wanted to combine the two duplexes into a one-family.

In terms of where the market's going, I'm not sitting here "crunching the numbers", so what do I know? I'm sure there are people out there keeping spreadsheets on all the sales and could give us a better idea of the state of things.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at October 9, 2009 1:42 PM

IJ -"The 2nd St. house's sale price points up the argument people were making earlier this week about the HOTD in Carroll Gardens. 1.08 for a house in a more desirable part of the neighborhood is a pretty good benchmark."-
Don't really understand the point you are trying to make??
This is a small house and not the most desirable part of CG.
(right CGar?)
And CGar - so which house are you gonna buy with your 3m$?

Posted by: Petebklyn at October 9, 2009 2:00 PM

[waiting for yougetwhatyoupayfor, i mean, moneyfornothing to walk in and start slamming doors]

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 2:04 PM

Antidope, 1 out 2 for me aint bad. my venom was for that stupid classon house's price and a little for the small carroll garden one (am still surprised by the very healthy sales price). Overall, I see the outcome as a draw, btwn the bear bull debates, on these 4 ppties.

I do admit the buying interest so far is stronger than I anticipated but I myself remains in greedy bargain hunter mode. some folks might be willing to drop $1M or more some of these so so houses, I expect more bang for my own bucks.

Posted by: more4less at October 9, 2009 2:04 PM

ROFL, Pete. Actually, I love that little Carroll Gardens house, which, as I recall, was renovated really nicely. And I don't think the price was bad when you consider buying an entire house versus buying a comparably priced co-op or condo nearby. And to be fair to me, Pete, I never said it was "not the most desirable part of CG"; I only expressed my PERSONAL PREFERENCE for a slightly different part of CG, as you and I have since discussed in person. (I haven't picked out my $3 million house yet, but I'll let you know when I do.)

BTW, Pete, I wanted to email you last night to invite you to join us at Henry Public but couldn't remember your email address, though I was sure you gave it to me at Ratifico.

Posted by: CarrollGardened at October 9, 2009 2:09 PM

parse if you like and by all means keep hunting for your bargain. which is something that should/can be done in any mkt.

however, u did refer to all the sellers:

"Odds are that these sellers will see the easter bunny sooner than the now extinct rich & loose sucker

Posted by: more4less at April 10, 2009 1:53 PM"

guess the "rich & loose sucker" is not yet extinct, right?

or they all saw the easter bunny. :)

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 2:11 PM

[waiting for yougetwhatyoupayfor, i mean, moneyfornothing to walk in and start slamming doors]

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 2:04 PM

-----------------
Man, you really spend your time trolling a real estate porn blog and wait for people like me to make a response? That's sad, man.

But since you insist:

Always a buyer willing to purchase a place, never stated otherwise. And as I've often mentioned before, each and every one of them that has in the last 18 months is, without question, negative equity (and paid a higher interest rate as they've kept plummeting).

May be fine for most people in a long-term situation. But unless you are severely pressured to purchase, I see no need to put yourself in that position.

But in the meantime, let's be sure to point out here that 50% of these did NOT sell, and the 50% of them that did both sold for under ask.

So until you start seeing places go at or above ask, the trend is down.

So, Dope, I'll sit in my 600SF rent stabilized apartment in Soho, walk the 3 blocks to my design firm, and use the time I save commuting to spend more time with my lovely 22 month old daughter.

All the while, squirreling away thousands in cash to increase my purchasing power.

Not so much a door slam as a bitch slap, but there you have it.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at October 9, 2009 2:21 PM

Antidope,
that appraised value on 2nd street in is the widget appraised value,,,not a real one.

Posted by: Petebklyn at October 9, 2009 2:22 PM

Oh, and for the record, not a single negative comment 6 months ago by me on either house that did sell, so again, what exactly is your point?

That prices continue to drop? Yes, we can all see that. Congratulations.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at October 9, 2009 2:24 PM

i hope you read more carefully before you sign binding contracts; there was no mention of you or your EGO in the april comments. got it?

poor, poor girl. would you even consider spending your money on her therapist? i thought not. i feel bad for the innocent.

yea, got it on the widget appraisal, collective wisdom was off by 19%. par for the course. of course, folks like yougetwhatyoupayfor or his cousins guess 700K, and missed by 55%. but they'll be right some day on at least one prop, I predict. here's looking at 65 prospect park west or 174 clinton ave.

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 2:36 PM

Antidope, 2 of the 4 listed has not sold. the classon one dropped price big time - ie proving that seller admitted the rich sucker who would pay that stupid price is indeed extinct. The cobble house is off market so it's ultimate state is TBD. so 2 sold for better prices than I expected - wins for you. 2 didn't - wins for me. 2 vs 2 is a draw

Posted by: more4less at October 9, 2009 3:01 PM

i hope you read more carefully before you sign binding contracts; there was no mention of you or your EGO in the april comments. got it?

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 2:36 PM

---------------------

More about your lack of ego I think than any show of one by me. Poor fella feels the need to post about waiting on me to "start slamming doors"

Does poor baby need a little attention?
Got me on your brain even when I'm not here?
Sad.

But thanks for confirming what I just said: There were no comments by me on the houses 6 months ago. So what exactly were you expecting me to slam doors about on this 6-month update? Please enlighten us all, I'd like to know where the silver lining is here.

Here are the facts:

--50% sold below ask,
--50% continue to twist,
--buyers who purchased this year have paid higher interest rates than needed.

And this was WITH one of the great reflation trades of all time. Heaven help those with large payments to make when the stimulus runs out.

So, seems like sitting and waiting continues to be a great decision for any would-be buyer. Nothing to slam a single door on, just sit, wait and to use one of my like minded poster's handles, get "more4less"

Sorry to burst your bubble.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at October 9, 2009 3:04 PM

m4l- you are moving goal posts...again.
2 non sellers from unrealistic and way-above-market asks are not equivalent to distressed sales, which is what you were predicting and are still waiting for.
look, on average things ARE taking longer to sell and are coming down a bit. so patience for buyers is appropriate but bottom fishers need to find the unadvertised, distressed property. and they'll get a potentially great deal if they're willing to renovate.

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 3:07 PM

antidope, I throw the stupid buyers comments left and right back then. post some feedback from you & others, I curtail the "stupid" references. you & I have had multiple exchanges on what is my goal so let's not make these moving goal post comments. in case you forgot those exchanges, let me repeat it for you. My goal is "I" hope and am confident I will be buying a house at distress prices. I actually prefer the mkt to do well while I'm able to buy a house for cheap cause that would be a bargain - ie cheaper than comparables others see and buy in the mkt. If I don't find the distress priced ppty, I'll buy what I can afford comfortably when prices go up.

Posted by: more4less at October 9, 2009 3:25 PM

'Dope is nothing, if not predictable. Posting on every weeks largest sales or every six months later board that has more than 1 sale with "when will this idiocy stop" or some other version of it.

Its going to be a while before we know for how long and how far prices are going down. I haven't seen anything in any of these type of threads (or actual NYC data) that show a major collapse, nor have I seen any evidence of firming. I am thinking we had an initial 20% drop which will be followed by another slow decline of another 10-30% more, but hey, who knows. I wouldn't buy right now unless its a real steal.

All I really know is that they government is propping up housing right now. Just have to see if their arms get tired before we have an actual non-government induced economic recovery.

Posted by: Brokedeveloper at October 9, 2009 3:41 PM

fine. but this week was not a draw. if i were one of the four sellers from that awful week in april either a) i priced fairly and sold well or b) i priced extravagently and didn't need to make a sell so i am not terribly unhappy.

i guess there is option c) which is that the seller set such a high price bc they used their home as an atm machine to fund a lavish lifestyle and are now hanging on, just barely, resisting all market offers...until, the bank takes over.

peace.

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 3:49 PM

"I am thinking we had an initial 20% drop which will be followed by another slow decline of another 10-30% more, but hey, who knows. I wouldn't buy right now unless its a real steal."

------
Thank you for succinctly stating the relatively sane, obvious position. Why people seem hell bent on these boom or bust predictions is beyond me.

Real estate bottoms take 5-7 years to complete typically. We're in the early stages, and downward-trending stagnation is likely the next leg down. Patience and smart bidding and negotation will be rewarded.

Unrelated, I do find Dope putting "peace" on his last post to make himself feel good after starting more pissing contests to be very funny. Whatever you need to make yourself feel good, I guess.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at October 9, 2009 3:56 PM

antidope, so what's your goal? are you looking to buy? when would you be buying? renting forever? already own and not looking? already own and looking to trade up?

Posted by: more4less at October 9, 2009 4:04 PM

Also wonder, you an economist for the Fed or a supply-side think tank?

You seem to consistently be of the "less bad = bullish" persuasion.

"Buy now or be priced out forever!!" has been replaced with "Buy now or you'll miss the bottom!!"

Lol!

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at October 9, 2009 4:14 PM

i am enjoying life, brother, in my humble brooklyn abode.

part of that enjoyment is unmasking the self-righteous who think they know more than the market just because they've been shopping.

looks to be a lifelong battle.

[closes door gently, smiling goodbye]

Posted by: antidope at October 9, 2009 4:15 PM

antidope, self-righteous label would be wasted on me. I'm selfishly greedy is what I am. 1st hand shopping does rank higher then side line banter in my book though.

If & when I do buy a house (distress price or mkt price,...), I'll invite you over. I am confident it'll be a case of "the damn blind squirrel did manage to find that juicy nut"

Posted by: more4less at October 9, 2009 4:27 PM

I will go on record and say that the 2nd st house is definitely not in the better part of CG - east of Hoyt, more Gowanus than CG, and not one of the deep-fronted garden blocks. North of $1M for that tiny place is astounding.

Posted by: vanessa at October 9, 2009 4:34 PM

The buyers of the houses are not stupid, its just that they have TARP money delivered to them in the form of fat wall street bonuses, which by the way, comes out of the pockets of ordinary families who pay taxes. These families are unfortunately getting priced out of desirable neighborhoods where they are hoping to send their kids to a good public school and to raise a family.

Posted by: dandel at October 9, 2009 4:46 PM

i am enjoying life, brother, in my humble brooklyn abode.

part of that enjoyment is unmasking the self-righteous who think they know more than the market just because they've been shopping.

looks to be a lifelong battle.

[closes door gently, smiling goodbye]

----
non answer to the question. and talk about self-righteous.

[returns to work, thinking what a total tool]

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at October 9, 2009 4:54 PM

MFN, it was answered - happy renter and not looking to buy at all. Answer didnt matter to me as I was asking out of curiousity.

Posted by: more4less at October 9, 2009 5:13 PM

vanessa: I agree that that block is not the nicest in Carroll Gardens, but it has it's charms. We live right around the corner, and it's quiet, close to the subway and the rest of CG is still quite convenient. This block in particular also has a lot of families & seems well taken care of.

17 1st Street (next block over, btw Hoyt & Bond) closed a few months for well over 1 mil also. Granted, that house is a bit bigger, but I'm not astounded at these prices.

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/03/house_of_the_da_651.php

Posted by: bivouac at October 9, 2009 5:28 PM

carrollgardened - i agree about the verandah place. in 1996 i did indeed pass up similar on that block that needed full reno for $500K and thought that it was too small, no yard.. etc... clearly some liked it then and some like it now. fyi, bought a small completely renovated 4 story that i thought was way better for the money.

on the whole tho, feel that CH is a great hood for convenience to city, restaurants, schools, beauty, and love the mix of brick houses vs. all brownstones, and can understand dropping bucks there.

Posted by: wine lover at October 9, 2009 9:03 PM

"Real estate bottoms take 5-7 years to complete typically. We're in the early stages, and downward-trending stagnation is likely the next leg down. Patience and smart bidding and negotation will be rewarded."

We're about 3.5 years in, if you count from mid-2006, which is when people with subprime mortgages in Brooklyn and elsewhere in the US started defaulting on their mortgages.

"I am thinking we had an initial 20% drop which will be followed by another slow decline of another 10-30% more, but hey, who knows. I wouldn't buy right now unless its a real steal."

I agree, this is a very likely scenerio.

I just bought a place though that's slightly cheaper than renting. It's affordable but the schools are not considered good.

I think it's all about the schools. Even with terrible unemployment and a real estate crash, I would be surprised if areas in the city with top-rated public schools drop so much in price that owning costs the same as renting.

Posted by: mopar at October 10, 2009 12:31 AM

"I would be surprised if areas in the city with top-rated public schools drop so much in price that owning costs the same as renting."
==========================================================

The problem is that rents are also dropping at the same time so you have two moving targets, one chasing the other's tail, or some would say "race to the bottom".

Posted by: dandel at October 10, 2009 9:25 AM

They don't seem to be dropping that much. Aren't family size apts in Park Slope still $3500? Aren't one-bedroom floor throughs in Cobble Hill, Fort Greene, etc., still $1900?

Posted by: mopar at October 11, 2009 11:55 AM

It'll take years for the real estate market to bottom out.

In five years, prices will be half what they are today.

And that's still a huge price increase from a decade ago.

Posted by: IronBalls at October 12, 2009 3:44 AM

The NYC real estate market lagged the nation wide trend by a few years. Most people will agree that we peaked in August of 2008, one year before lehman's bankruptcy. Real estate cycles last 5 years on average and we just finished with year one of the process.

Posted by: dandel at October 12, 2009 9:17 AM

I've talked to some big shot investment bankers who think it could take fifty plus years for the real estate market to recover. Apparently, things are much worse "behind the curtain" than the media reports.

Posted by: IronBalls at October 12, 2009 7:22 PM

"big shot investment bankers"

query: are these the same dudes that a) invented securitization, b) invented sub-prime asset class, c) said real estate prices would never synchronize negatively on national scale, or d) the other other big shot investment bankers that we should listen too?

iron balls, who knows what will happen, but I will say your opinion is worth as much as the duds on wall st.

Posted by: antidope at October 13, 2009 11:04 AM

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October 9, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

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