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September 18, 2009

Open House Picks

house Brooklyn Heights
36 Joralemon Street
Stribling
Sunday 12-2
$2,495,000 (was $2,995,000)
GMAP P*Shark

house Park Slope
438 7th Street
Brooklyn Properties
Sat & Sun, 1-3
$1,950,000
GMAP P*Shark

house Prospect Heights
270 Sterling Place
Corcoran
Sunday 1-3
$1,500,000 (was $1,500,000)
GMAP P*Shark

house Bedford Stuyvesant
146 Halsey Street
All Points RE
Sunday 1:30-3
$795,000 (was $995,000)
GMAP P*Shark

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Comments

that Bed Stuy house looks very nice

Posted by: the chicken at September 18, 2009 1:17 PM

The Brooklyn heights house is actually 169 State Street, according to the Stribling listing

Posted by: NorthHeights at September 18, 2009 1:26 PM

7th street looks nice but pricey. Almost $2 millions for place that has only 1.5 baths and a kitchen that is coming straight from the 80s, this is pushing the envelop too far!

Posted by: WorkInProgress at September 18, 2009 1:26 PM

And 434 7th is actually 438.

Posted by: slopefarm at September 18, 2009 1:29 PM

Chicken, the BS house is nice but not 800k nice.

Posted by: more4less at September 18, 2009 1:34 PM

Also think 7th street is way overpriced given that it's only 16' wide.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 18, 2009 2:02 PM

Bed Stuy was HOTD on 4/14/09. Widget has a chance to make it's best showing yet ($748K)!

So that makes 3 out of 20 houses listed in Apr still on the market. Yes some were pulled, but they obviously don't "need" to sell and intend to wait out the world crisis. Or, if you're a pessimist, there are 6 houses in the "shadow inventory" category.

MM: you'd think that house were overpriced even if it were 30 ft wide! since the widget began you've been underpricing actual sales prices by 10-25%. we're at least a year into full on crisis in NY and we're not there yet. someday you may be right. or someday you won't. but pls don't tell us why you'll be correct eventually...i don't think we can take another recitation of the SOS... :)

Posted by: antidope at September 18, 2009 2:31 PM

I'm glad antidope has taken up my point of view and been able to reinforce it with the widget data.

I kind got a bit tired of preaching the story all through 2008, the Lehman crash, the market crash and now the market (stock) rebound where a lot of wealth has been created. Unless you were a real speculator in the stock market, most people's portfolios that I talk to are back to pre-crash levels.

Face it people, the bottom is not going to fall out of the brownstone market. The inventory is too small.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 2:45 PM

Classic Brownstoner conversation today.

MM: House is overpriced.

Dave: Prices are rising.

Posted by: mopar at September 18, 2009 2:59 PM

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: mopar at September 18, 2009 3:00 PM

mopar...I DID NOT SAY PRICES ARE RISING FOR HOMES. The stock market, yes...wealth is being created. My stance is that brownstone prices will bottom before the end of the year.

I'm sure the 4Q Douglas Elliman reports will show that.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 3:02 PM

Ok, ok, sorry. How about prices will rise at the end of the year, then?

Also, on Halsey: Isnt this the place with an island absurdly in the middle of the parlor, only now with better photos? Isn't it kind of pricey?

Posted by: mopar at September 18, 2009 3:14 PM

I think the halsey one is definitely too high. For one thing it's hard to see whether the door casings are naturally stained or just painted dark which, IMHO, makes a big difference. That said, it's too expensive for that part of Halsey.

I didn't say they would start rising at the end of the year, just stop falling. They will probably start rising 2H 2010. Just my opinion but so far, I've been correct that brownstone prices will not fall off a cliff (-50/70%) as many of the Team Bear people have speculated and some are on their last breadth of prayer hoping for.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 3:25 PM

Can't complain about lack of photos for 7th St. Lovely details and a good amount of space. It's just vertical space . . . like food piled high and delicately in a high end restaurant . . . beautiful, but how do you eat it?

OK, that's unfair. But with 16 feet, it does become awkward with what's left over after the stairs, and when there are two room filling the width. For one room, it's fine -- the kitchen, the larger bedrooms. I guess that's why people take down parlor walls, but that's a shame too.

Don't know about the price. We'll see.

Posted by: Nomi at September 18, 2009 3:35 PM

For some RE porn, this agency has some mighty fine places and GREAT photos...

www.brooklynbridgerealty.com

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 3:36 PM

Home prices will continue to fall as long as the NYC unemploymnet continues to rise. NYC unemployment rate is 10.3% and rising.

Posted by: ZooLander at September 18, 2009 3:39 PM

Mopar, now that you're an owner, please fall back in line and be bullish. hehehe. glad to see you taking membership on team reasonable.

Posted by: more4less at September 18, 2009 3:40 PM

Isn't a $2.5MM ask cheap (or at least not crazy) for a 19 footer in the Heights? Aren't these usually more?

Posted by: Mr Joist at September 18, 2009 3:41 PM

http://www.marketwatch.com/story//home-prices-wont-regain-peak-this-decade-moodys-2009-09-18

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service threw cold water on optimistic projections of a V-shaped recovery in the battered U.S. housing market, predicting it could take more than 10 years to get back to boom-level prices.

"For many reasons, the rebound will be disproportionately small compared to the decline," Moody's said this week in its latest outlook on the residential market. "It will take more than a decade to completely recover from the 40% peak-to-trough decline in national home prices."

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 18, 2009 3:44 PM

Many CEOs are beginning to state publicly that they probably cut too much staff. Inventories are very, very low. We are entering a cycle of higher production that is now being stimulated by government spending in one form or another. Even residential construction activity is rising after 12 quarters of shrinkage.

Unemployment is always the LAST of the indicators to turn.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 3:44 PM

Moody's.....AHHHHHHH, yes, the bellweather ratings agency that had all the high ratings on Fannie & freddie, AIG and all the other crap. Now there's a prediction you'd want to hang your hat on.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 3:52 PM

DIBS -- They do have a good photographer, but the site navigation bugs me to no end.

Also, I am/was bearish, but I don't think anyone was forecasting over 50% falls in brownstones. The most bearish forecast I heard was just over 40% (I think it was a report from Deutsche, but not sure.)

My prediction is there will be what looks like a bottom late this fall (in part due to a confidence bounce after Bloomberg buys himself another term and then some bank bonuses filtering into the Brooklyn market). However, inventory will continue to build well into next spring, and prices will slide a little more into late spring of 2010. Prices won't start to increase until 2011.

(Obviously take this with a grain of salt. Also, I think that good houses that show very well in their category will continue to move in reasonable amounts of time at prices near where we have seen them this year with no slippage next year.)

Posted by: Boerumresident at September 18, 2009 3:56 PM

DIBS is a perma Bull. He is impervious to evidence that counters his, and Larry Kudlow's, views. (OK wealth has rebounded somewhat with stocks. It is still off a cumulative 12 or so trillion from peak.) Would you want someone impervious to counter arguments managing your money? I still believe he is fibbing when he says he helps manage a hedge fund, one that is conveniently unregistered, so we remain unable to verify its size, returns, or even its existence. Setting aside his reliability, does he believe we're in recovery, and will it be a jobs recovery, will that cover NYC, and to what extent? Unemployment is rising, and a fair amount of anecdotal evidence backs up the stats: Wall Street is doing great, everyone else --including exactly the sorts of high end professionals who buy in the Heights, Cobble Hill, FG, etc. --is getting killed. Granted, the finest mansions will continue to move. But average to nice brownstones --worth more or less in six months?

I know it makes him feel like a bigshot to say some people are waiting breathlessly for Armaggedon. But I don't pick that up at all from, say, MM. I think some people are waiting to spend their money wisely, and until prices go UP --got that, Dave? --we're watching patiently as our dollars go further, and further, and further.

Posted by: Whuh at September 18, 2009 3:59 PM

> Moody's.....AHHHHHHH, yes, the bellweather ratings agency

Agreed. I wouldn't hang my hat on them. But I wouldn't hang them on your "green shoots" either.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 18, 2009 4:00 PM

The current evidence is beginning to support my forecast, WHuh, but don't get bogged down by facts. Have you noticed that the SP500 is up 60% from the March bottom???? Do you think you might take a hint from the most respected leading indicator??? Pull your head out of your ass.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 4:05 PM

Whuh, if you can prove you've got over $1MM in liquid assets I'll gladly send you the pitchbook and performance data for our fund.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 4:12 PM

Dave, how much of that gain is due to a combination of government stimulus and Fed reserve liquidity, and how much is due to a return of animal spirits? How long can the feds continue to prop up the economy? What is the growth driver going forward? If you want to momentum invest the S and P, please, be my guest. "Most respected leading indicator." You're funny.

Posted by: Whuh at September 18, 2009 4:14 PM

no such thing as NEED TO BUY vs. there really is such a thing as NEED TO SELL. Along with till you see prices go up, just chill, rack up savings, rent bigger place if need for more space then buy when it hits your target price or if you see prices go up.

if you got tons of $$$ and choose to buy now, more power to you and ignore people saying wrong timing, etc. if you're waiting for a price point that looks reasonable and comfortable on the affordibility, wait wait wait. No need to rush in

Posted by: more4less at September 18, 2009 4:15 PM

I sense sour grapes, Whuh.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 4:16 PM

Thanks, Dave, I'd love to see it. Can you give me something like a real address to send it to? Like many people with that kind of dosh, I don't send out statements to internet trolls.

Posted by: Whuh at September 18, 2009 4:17 PM

Why sour grapes? Look, this is an anonymous forum. There's nothing I can say to convince you it's not sour grapes. But trust me, I have nothing to complain about.

Posted by: Whuh at September 18, 2009 4:19 PM

m4l, I don't think there's any need to rush in either. If you fall in love with aplce that you plan to live in for many years, there's usually a likelihood you might overpay but it's all relative.

You yourself have said that recently you have bid on a few properties only to be outbid by some higher , typically allc ash offer. There are people out there, yourself included, who are pretty experienced in real estate that are now bottom fishing.

People whi sit there wringing their hands and calling for the end of the world are typical of the village idiot syndrome.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 4:20 PM

Meet me for coffee next week. The ten year return ending June 30 was 12.3% vs. -1.02% for the SP500.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 4:26 PM

DIBS, those ppties I got beat out on is ~30% below most asks on mkt currently. if even some (not all) of the deep pockets are in bargain mode, mkt still trending bearish till proven otherwise.

at the rate stk mkt is powering you, your ID will soon be DIFG (ft greene) or DIBH (Boerum Hill)

Posted by: more4less at September 18, 2009 4:34 PM

That's a nice return but doesn't compete with what I'm currently in, which is registered and above aboard, btw; I'd be happy to send you those docs.

Why "village idiot"? If I'd bought six months ago, I'd have lost money, esp relative to the very stocks you're now touting. Is a brownstone going to outperform the S and P over the next six months? If it makes you feel better to run together a know-nothing who wants prices to collapse with someone who thinks we still have a way to go, whatever, dude...

Posted by: Whuh at September 18, 2009 4:53 PM

Very happy for you Whuh. I wouldn't want to dilute your returns with our inferior record. We were -12% last year and are up 28% YTD. I'm sure your guys are doing better.

I didn't refer to you as the village idiot, just those with the lunatic fringe, end-of-the-world outlook that they still cling to. If you subscribe to that, well.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 5:06 PM

Brooklyn Bridge Realty drives me nuts. They keep listings up that they sold YEARS ago

Posted by: Ringo at September 18, 2009 5:19 PM

Whuh, you can send them to me. I'm never averse to making money :-)

Moodys sucks. I hope they lock them up.

dibs, I'd take issue with this statement:
"Unless you were a real speculator in the stock market, most people's portfolios that I talk to are back to pre-crash levels."

I'm back to end-of-2007 levels only because I dabble. I'm probably not back to 10/9/07 levels yet. A buy-and-hold investor still has quite a ways to go. Over 4000 on the Dow. The ten-year average return for most equity funds is flat. The ten-year average! The small guy really got screwed this time.

Posted by: denton at September 18, 2009 5:28 PM

You're probably right, denton. You did have to be a bit adroit to get back to those levels at this point in time.

Also you're right on the SP500. As i posted above, the ten year return for the SP500 to June 30, 2009 was -1.02%

I think Arkady posted the other day that she had recouped most of her losses.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 18, 2009 5:41 PM

Interesting conversation you two. Glad to see you can mix it up and keep it civil. you both sound pretty convincing to a non-finance person like myself. Hope you actually meet and hash it out face to face.

Posted by: wasder at September 18, 2009 6:59 PM

Mopar, you're an owner now?

Posted by: Nomi at September 18, 2009 9:02 PM

Mr. Joist-
My guess is the State Street house needs a lot of work. The first thing the listing says is: "A rare opportunity to either convert to 2 Family or renovate with some cosmetic updating for a fabulous single family residence." And it's only 2 houses in from the movie theater on Court (and across from the dumps that penson recently unloaded) so not a super premium location. The current asking price is probably in the ballpark - if there were a widget, I'd say $2.3 - but not cheap. This end of the block is a little hard to sell because the people who'd want to pay a premium for the heights might not consider it, and those who don't care about the heights premium can find nicer houses in cobble hill or boreum hill just a couple of blocks away on a different price scale.

Posted by: NorthHeights at September 18, 2009 10:45 PM

Yes, Nomi, we are. Closed about three weeks ago. Two family in Bed Stuy.

Posted by: mopar at September 19, 2009 7:03 PM

"Yes, Nomi, we are. Closed about three weeks ago. Two family in Bed Stuy."

Oh, wow, I didn't know (obviously)! Congratulations!

Posted by: Nomi at September 20, 2009 3:10 AM

Thank you!!

Posted by: mopar at September 20, 2009 10:50 AM