Last Week's Biggest Sales

Pete and all;

I know that you've been asking for some time that we compile some real data on the trend for condo sales. Well, I've been doing just that, and I hereby present it. I want to see how Muffie tries to spin this data!

The condo in question is the one I live in: City View Gardens. It is a five-building condo complex, with three buildings on 2nd Street between 4th and 5th Ave, and two buildings on 3rd street between 4th and 5th Ave. All of these buildings are closer to 4th Ave. This condo complex was built in 2003-2004. While this condo is in Park Slope proper, it would not be considered "prime" Park Slope by some.

My condo complex is a very good market indicator for the following reason: 30 of these units consist of identical 3 BR, 2 BA apartments of 1350 to 1400 square feet. These apartments were initially offered for about $630,000 by the sponsor (the infamous Boymelgreen), and then he later upped the offering price to $680,000 due to the hot market at the time.

All of the data I am about to list below is a matter of public record, if anyone wants to do some fact-checking:

-September, 2005 (the first flip): apartment 4B in 306 2nd street sells for $911,000.

-Fall, 2007: Apartment 2J in 309 3rd Street sells for $1,050,000. This is the highest price recorded for one of these 3 BR apartments.

-January 2009: Apartment 1C in 306 2nd Street sells for $1,030,000.

-September 2009: Apartment 3H in 305 3rd Street goes into contract for $989,000.

So, let's review the situation, shall we?

a) One year after Lehman, the actual SALES price is 6% less than the peak SALES price (No nonsense about cuts in asking price, which is meaningless). A little better than 50% off peak comps, I would say (BHO???)

b) One year after Lehman, the actual SALES price is still higher than 2005 levels.

I leave it to Muffie now to try to spin this data. Please inform us with those anectodotal stories "begging" you to offer 20% off the asking price. Please try to obfuscate with your talk about asking price, which, as I've tried to inform you so many times is MEANINGLESS.

Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 12:20 PM

Antidope;

I'm going to keep posting this data every time certain people on this site try to "talk their book", if you know what I mean.

Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 12:32 PM

Antidope;

If my memory serves me correctly, that Fall 2007 deal went into contract about 5 months earlier. The reason is that the seller of the CVG unit was having trouble closing on the house into which they were moving. So, that fits with your statement.

I agree with you that general price level is probably around 20% below peak. If one studies NYC real estate history, that is the typical fall-off in a correction.

Those who seriously believe that we will see a 50% fall-off in prices should probably go join a wacko militia unit. If we do indeed that type of price drop, I'm not sure one would want to buy a house ,as we would be talking about enormous social dislocation.

Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 12:48 PM

Brokedeveloper;

All of the apartments I list above are identical in feature, layout, etc. The ONLY variation between them is a very slight one in size. Some are 1350 square feet, others are 1400 sqaure feet (this is due to a slightly different width of some of the buildings).

When they were priced by the sponsor, they were all priced the same. As I mentioned above, the sponsor jacked the general price level up (from around $630K to $680K). That is what so great about this data: these are true apple-to-apple comps.

Dandel;

I do not claim that this is the final word on the market. However, unlike some folks here, I am presenting real data, a sample of data, AND, as I just discussed, true apple-to-apple SALES data, not "spin" on cuts in asking prices.

Note that I said that my condo is not located on blocks that would be considered "prime" Park Slope by many. If these condos in a non-prime area have taken a 6% hit, I think some inferences can be made. I agreed with Antidope's hypothesis that the average hit is in the neighborhood of 20%. Those who talk about 50% cuts should join a wacko miliia group.

Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 1:07 PM

Snark;

I answered your two questions in my follow-up e-mails to the data.

Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 1:43 PM

Make that "follow-up posts".

Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 1:44 PM