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September 22, 2009

Last Week's Biggest Sales

lwbs%209-22-09.jpg

1. BOERUM HILL $2,800,000
28 Butler Street GMAP (left)
According to StreetEasy, by the time this 3,000-sf, 2-family townhouse was listed in June—for $3.2 million—it was already in contract. It was last purchased for $950,000 in 2007. (Presumably the sellers renovated.) Entered into contract on 6/2/09; closed on 9/3/09; deed recorded on 9/17/09.

2. PARK SLOPE $2,200,000
213 Berkeley Place GMAP (right)
When this four-story brownstone was a House of the Day in April, it was listed for $2.475 million. The reader widget guessed it would ultimately sell for $1,984,668. Entered into contract on 7/23/09; closed on 8/28/09; deed recorded on 9/15/09.

3. PARK SLOPE $1,300,000
90 8th Avenue, #6B GMAP
This 1,860-sf, 3-bedroom co-op was listed for $1,395,000 in June, according to StreetEasy. Closed on 8/25/09; deed recorded on 9/14/09.

4. MILL BASIN $1,275,000
130 Whitman Drive GMAP
This is a 3,220-sf single-family, according to Property Shark. Entered into contract on 9/10/09; closed on 9/10/09; deed recorded on 9/16/09.

5. PARK SLOPE $1,250,500
133 Sterling Place, #4G GMAP
This 3-bedroom unit in the Vermeil condo was originally listed for $1.99 million in early 2007, according to StreetEasy. Entered into contract on 6/25/09; closed on 9/4/09; deed recorded on 9/14/09.

Photos from Property Shark

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Comments

All are extremely impressive, in my opinion.

Even Vermeil ended up selling for 700 psf (which is where it should have started at in the first place).

I noticed that Vermeil only has a handful of units left (maybe 5) and the Lincoln Place brothel looks very close to selling out as well (perhaps 3 left). So hard to tell anything with 100% accuracy on streeteasy.

Re: Berkeley Place - lechacal hit the nail on the head in the HOTD thread it looks like in terms of this house being a good indicator of the market. Glad to see my neighbors got a good price for their home.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 11:43 AM

the pic using for Butler St is nothing the way it looks now.
Expanded, gutted, etc. Look at Corcoran listing to see what was done. I was wondering what it did sell for. And nosey web browser that I am, did search on buyers name. From what I can tell, they graduated from college in 2003.
6 years outa college and buying a house. Maybe is a starter house for them. Only reason sold for so much is close to Baltic Street.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 22, 2009 11:49 AM

idiots everywhere.
when will the madness stop.

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 11:52 AM

Pete -- What do you mean "close to Baltic Street"?

Still $2.8M is a very good price for what is admittedly a large house that looks like it showed well (although probably not to taste for all the preservationists here).

Posted by: Boerumresident at September 22, 2009 11:53 AM

> (Presumably the sellers renovated.)

And the winner of the Understatement of the Year award goes to...

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 22, 2009 11:59 AM

I thought that house in the picture looked a bit unlikely for $2.8M. Here's the corcoran listing, which makes a bit more sense:

http://www.corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&listingid=1544457

but wow. Only detail left is in the facade.

Posted by: Frederick Law Homestead at September 22, 2009 12:00 PM

Boerumresident...did you not read thread from yesterdays coop of the day?

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 22, 2009 12:03 PM

11217 and Lechacal. You guys nailed the Berkeley Place house. Nice job.

Posted by: wasder at September 22, 2009 12:03 PM

Actually I did skip the coop post yesteday. My bad.

Posted by: Boerumresident at September 22, 2009 12:05 PM

Frederick--nice job on the corcoran link. Yeah, renovate doesn't really describe what was done to that building. That being said it looks pretty nice.

Posted by: wasder at September 22, 2009 12:05 PM

Re: 213 Berkley place you people really need to stop worshiping false widget gods. Parkslope is crazing glueing the bubble back together. I love it.

Posted by: jack slade at September 22, 2009 12:06 PM

^crazy

Posted by: jack slade at September 22, 2009 12:08 PM

almost 3 million dollars for that fugly brown box. okaaaaay

*rob*

Posted by: Butterfly at September 22, 2009 12:12 PM

Actually I just noticed that there are only 2 units left for sale at The Lincoln (former Brothel) at Lincoln Place and 7th Avenue.

I'm obsessed with that building. Such a gorgeous exterior.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 12:22 PM

Wow - that Butler reno looks great from the pics. I know some people want a BS to look exactly like it did in 1890, but I don't know how you can argue with that view. It looks like it was done in photo-shop.

Posted by: Rookie at September 22, 2009 12:23 PM

Also interesting (to me) since this rarely seems to happen anymore, but 35 Prospect Park West (unit 12A) was listed for $1,350,000 and closed on September 16th for $1,475,000...9.3% OVER asking price.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 12:24 PM

Seems like widget is pretty consistently 10% off. That seems to have held up when the sold price was 10% off ask or 30% off ask. Could be a surprisingly useful tool if the bias remains roughly 10%.

The Butler St place is 4500 sq ft. according to Corcoran. 622 sq/ft seems pretty strong for a large house in Boreum Hill. I would bet the reno was easily $300-$350 sq/ft., meaning the owner put in $2.2m-$2.4m total. With closing costs, broker fees, etc, still a decent profit.

Posted by: Brokedeveloper at September 22, 2009 12:31 PM

Broke - if that's true, how would the seller make a profit? they paid 950k in 2007. which would mean that they would need to sell at least at original ask of 3.2M in order to break even.

the place is absolutely beautiful.

Posted by: bkny at September 22, 2009 12:48 PM

on the first 11 houses, average price above widget is 15%.

brokedeveloper, if the market continues to stabilize (and i don't think there's much doubt that this is what we're seeing) i think the widget will start to do better. there was an overwhelming bias toward pessimism around these parts back in april/may/june.

the rhetoric has become much more balanced; in line with the national mood, imo.

even bho's stated metric has apparently stabilized as i see three months of improving ny data on case/shiller. is that why s/he's gone?

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 12:51 PM

"on the first 11 houses, average price above widget is 15%."

Are you particularly shocked that Brownstoner readers don't know their ass from their elbow?

Have ya READ the Open Thread before...??

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 12:53 PM

I want to hear what Miss Muffet has to say.

So interesting that BHO, brickoven, Muffy, etc. have all vanished now that the market seems to be stabilizing.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 12:54 PM

In Miss Muffet's defense, I think she will show up shortly and make her case as she has all along. Brickoven and BHO will surely not set foot in this thread.

Posted by: wasder at September 22, 2009 12:58 PM

Wow. Who would've thunk...
It must have been fairly costly to add a floor to that house...I'm sort of with the preservationists on this one...it's a bit of a shame the entire inside of the house was more or less done away with. But who knows. Maybe it was a complete wreck for all we know.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 1:00 PM

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 1:02 PM

I just like yankin' Muffy's chain, Wasder. She has every right to her opinion just like everyone else. I think she might have missed her opportunity as a politician though...her ability to spin every bit of factual data in her favor (even when it goes directly against her argument) is fairly impressive.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 1:04 PM

Why are people knocking Miss Muffet (except wasder)? You might disagree with her, but she's unfailingly polite and has clearly thought through her position.

Posted by: Rookie at September 22, 2009 1:08 PM

representative or not, I'm always amazed at the large amt of $$$ changing hands on these big sales. cant get a good read on mkt. on ppties south of 1.5M or so, some are moving at decent clip and a bunch are sitting forever despite the price cuts. Overall, I think prices are still dripping albeit not tanking.

anyone else notice that rents seem to be firmer recently vs a steady drop up to around 2 months ago?

Posted by: more4less at September 22, 2009 1:11 PM

Rookie, I wasn't knocking anyone.

But since you mention it, I agree, she is well reasoned in her position/thinking...but I don't necessarily find her all that "polite" or cordial. She's rather egotistical if you ask me...and it shows. She comes across as a "little too sure" or her opinions and is not very charitable when it comes down to it. She's posted some snide comments here and there...and the browbeating can be a little tiresome when she's obsessing on her point...just like me! ;-)

Hi Wasder! Was'der up?

***Someday bid half off peak taglines***

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 1:16 PM

VERY strong sales.

According to BHO, we are upgrading to having 5 suckers born every minute these days instead of one.

Posted by: Kensingtonian at September 22, 2009 1:17 PM

"some are moving at decent clip and a bunch are sitting forever despite the price cuts"

Isn't that always the case M4L? Seems normal to me. Some properties are crap and overpriced, and some are right on the money and priced wisely. This isn't a new phenomenon to have some properties go in weeks and others to sit and sit.

With regard to rents, I believe they are actually creeping up a bit. At least in PS where I am most familiar. In January, there were at least a few listing for 2 bedrooms in the 2200-2400 range, and now there seem to be few, if any. These same apartments seem to be back up in the 2400-2600 range. 1 bedrooms which had dropped as low as 1500 in the North Slope are back up to around 1700 or 1800. Those are just my very non scientific numbers from helping lots of people move and always looking at listings...

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 1:17 PM

pedantic pessimists who proudly proclaim palatial price chops are plopping psychadelic pills at this point.

puhlease.

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 1:19 PM

I'm gunna have to agree completely with BrooklynGreene on her take on Miss Muffet. She rubs me the wrong way, but I'm sure the same can be said of me for some of you, so I guess I should shut my piehole.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 1:19 PM

11217--never shut your pie hole. Your brand of confident opinionating is much needed around here. Just so everyone knows I am completely down with people who have strong opinions and can articulate them effectively whether I agree or not. Muffet is one of those.

Posted by: wasder at September 22, 2009 1:23 PM

re: widget, it's no surprise that actual price exceeds average prediction. you only need one person at the upper end for the deal to happen. it's not a stock!

Posted by: brownstoner at September 22, 2009 1:24 PM

Well then 11271,
Let them eat pie.

***Someday bid half off peak taglines***

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 1:25 PM

11217, agree completely on the badly priced junk sitting and well priced good condition ones moving quick. What puzzles me is the middle of the pack bunch (ok price and ok condition) where I'm seeing the divergent sales cycle times. the only thing that comes to mind is that the 2 family ones are selling best vs. the 1 and 4 families are sitting.

Posted by: more4less at September 22, 2009 1:27 PM

Housing always follows the market so this little echo bubble underway is not surprising. Unfortunately once the explicit and implicit government programs end, the downward trend will resume, probably next year. The 50% housing reversion to the mean will continue as higher unemployment continues, and credit continues to contract with banks fighting higher foreclosures rates and bigger loan losses.

Fortunately Brooklyn will not be impacted as much as other areas of New York and the rest of the United States since overall migration trends favor areas such as Brooklyn.

Posted by: cjmorris1201 at September 22, 2009 1:33 PM

And remember Jonathan (or whoever logs in at the office under that sign-on), a stock is usually valued only at the last price paid for it. I've always found it rather absurd that a stock price is the very last price paid when the activity/volume may be tiny. For large companies, all it takes is a small block of shares sold for either too much or too little to supposedly set the going rate...doesn't quite make sense. Maybe it's the same thing with homes...although, the mechanism/buying dynamic is probably quite different.
Any finance whizzes care to elaborate on this one?

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 1:33 PM

i think the widget will do better in the future.

early widgeting reflected rampant pessimism. in apr/may/jun, widget priced on average 20+% off ask. lately it's been 17%.

sept vintage could come in within 5% with continued market stability.

to me, this has served as a reminder of the power of psychology in matters previously considered purely financial or economic.

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 1:34 PM

CJ Morris,
I don't know if that explanation was comforting or hair-raising! Thanks though. I guess you're saying we're in for more declines...H'mm...but then Brooklyn won't get hit as badly? My G*d, what's the country going to be like over the next couple of years? Basically a depression or just a big drop in rents and home sales?

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 1:42 PM

quote:
Those are just my very non scientific numbers from helping lots of people move and always looking at listings... 11217

i just want to flat out state this here and now. you are single-handedly RUINING park slope

*rob*

Posted by: Butterfly at September 22, 2009 1:43 PM

> 1 bedrooms which had dropped as low as 1500 in the North Slope

Really? When I was looking in June, even studios in the North Slope at that price point were small and crappy. Perhaps there was a serious bottoming of the renta market in July-September.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 22, 2009 1:51 PM

antidope.... I did see a recent sale listed at 675 (or something like that) Sackett - that newish bldg between 4th and 5th...that was definitely lower than past couple years.
A 1290 sq ft place. So I now have 1 example of drop in price. Any other addresses I can research?
(and how come neighborhood boundary police didn't jump all over that Butler street called Boerum Hill?)

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 22, 2009 2:00 PM

One bedroom apartments in Fort Greene are well over $1500/mth, often at or above $1800/mth so Mr. 11217, where in Park Slope might someone had a one-bedroom on the rental market for $1500? Maybe you saw one of those come-on ads on Craig's List. Sometimes, as I'm sure you're aware, brokers list semi or totally fake super-bargains to get you to call them.

BTW, I was commenting on the Open Thread about the odd movie locations RV and the activity going on on Lafayette. There's no film crew but there are various people milling around on cell phones...and then a nanny brought a baby to the intersection and one of the seemingly important young women went off with her...I assume it was her baby in the stroller.

I could swear that one of the women is the pretty brunette actress on Sex and the City--the one with the goofy character. I can't remember her name. What's going on around here (ForT Green)? Is it the new Burbank?

Hhh...

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 2:00 PM

forget the boundaries. that place may not be boerum hill (who cares), but it is 1.5 short blocks from, horror, public housing projects. did the idiots not even take a walk around the block. bought without visiting? what is going on???

pbk, same answer as last week. but i'd be happy to describe units and dates and percentages...

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 2:04 PM

Mr. Brown, we all know it's not a stock. There is always only one buyer--we know that. The widget discrepancy is a function of the RE mood, and especially of the mood of the most fervent posters on this site.

As for MM, she dishes as much as she gets. And her logic was always anecdotal and specious.

Posted by: FatLenny at September 22, 2009 2:21 PM

Two 1 bedrooms in the building next to mine rented for less than 1500 this summer. One for 1450 and another for 1495. Nice apartments, but the bedroom in each is quite small...enough for a bed and dresser basically...

Prices fell quite a bit, but only briefly it seems. They are back up and yes Snark...now studios in my are around 1500 and they aren't always great, even at that price.

They go as high as around 1800 or 2000, as I did see one listed on my block recently for 1850. For a STUDIO!

Makes my mortgage payment of 1200 pretty easy to swallow.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 2:28 PM

And I was by no means saying that all 1 bedrooms in the North Slope were 1500, just that you COULD find a few at that price point, where you could not in 2007. You could find absolutely nothing in Park Slope (studio or otherwise) for under 1500 during the peak of the market, I don't think...

I think the average one bedroom in PS proper (especially North Slope) is probably closer to 2000 a month, but there were a few deals to be had.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 2:32 PM

does anyone know what happened with 53 Lincoln place, (in park slope) the modern building? did any of the units in there sell?

Posted by: DIBS sock puppet at September 22, 2009 2:37 PM

I don't expect the widget to change. During the boom years, most HOTD threads were full of comments predicting that teh house wouldn't sell until the price dropped 20, 25, 30% etc. I think there will always be a collective brownstoner comment bias of 10% below market.

Posted by: slopefarm at September 22, 2009 2:37 PM

As has been stated many times now (not only by me), "Biggest Sales" are by definition outliers. A very different story is told in the "Open House 6 months later" thread. For every property that sells at a high price (though still lower than peak), there are others that linger, sell for much less, experience ongoing price cuts, etc. This is hardly anecdotal and specious - there are loads of examples covered by this very blog, as well as sales data. I do not consider myself one of the more shrill voices on this site, predicting armegeddon. I have however, staked my bets on continued declines, of a percentage no one can know for sure. There are too many fundamentals that, in my analysis, argue for this to be the case.

I do not take the critiques of me personally since I know real estate can be a touchy subject and my position may ruffle feathers. But I respect other's opinions. I am simply stating mine publicly, as others do here. And when I don't comment, I am not in hiding - I actually have a busy job so don't always have the time to comment much (gotta make them donuts to buy our future house!)

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 22, 2009 2:41 PM

Slopefarm - you are probably right on the widget, and it will be driven, in part, by the split of owners versus non-owners on the site. Many non-owners want the prices to fall, either to feel better about not being owners, or to have a better chance of being an owner. Owners, of course, do not like seeing their investment tank. While there are some who take an objective view to the widget, their will always be a bias driven by factors above. I'm guessing this site is 80% non-owner, 20% owner.
Man, I love making up fake stats.

Posted by: Brokedeveloper at September 22, 2009 2:43 PM

"does anyone know what happened with 53 Lincoln place, (in park slope) the modern building? did any of the units in there sell?"

Of the 4 units, 2 are currently in contract...3rd Floor and Penthouse..

Remaining units are first and second floor...

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 2:44 PM

Yay--a miss muffett sighting! Why is it that real estate is such a touchy subject?

Posted by: wasder at September 22, 2009 2:45 PM

thanks 11217. those were the better units in the building. interesting. i'm not surprised they sold, but i can't imagine they got too close to asking. i think they were asking around 800 psf.

Posted by: DIBS sock puppet at September 22, 2009 2:46 PM

the "outliers" don't look more than 10-20% off what they would have looked like 2 years ago. material drop but not yet depression era.

most impressive to me is that these are trading despite the mortgage availability issue.

there is still a ton of negative pressure around that will not abate quickly.

market does seem to be approaching a more balanced relationship between buyer and seller, but these kind of conclusions are conjecture until data can prove it out (3-6 months hence).

it is possible that once jumbos become available again, we will note that a) obama has saved the banks, b) liquidity will return to the brownstone market, c) some people will be happy, d) others pissed off. this is probably a late '10 event. until then, let the cyber-fights continue.

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 2:55 PM

The Butler St renovation would suit me just fine and I don't think the proximity to the projects is a huge deal, but the middle school directly opposite certainly would be a dealbreaker for me. Since it went into contract over the summer my guess is the buyer didn't get to see the horror of that place in action...

Posted by: tricks73 at September 22, 2009 3:01 PM

Wasder - I think it's touchy for lots of reasons including:

- Real estate is often about buying a home, and the concept of "home" connotes tons of emotional stuff: what kind of environment you live with every day, where you spend time with love ones, what kind of community you have around you, notions of identity, etc.
- Real estate is often the largest financial decision people make so it hugely impacts their other life choices. Housing costs often translate into income pressure which in turn translates to time you have to spend working, and in some cases, even the kind of work you do (i.e. do I keep working at this higher-paid job to pay my mortgage or do I pursue my true love which is less money and thus means I have to live in a smaller place, less desired neighborhood, etc.)
- Real estate in NYC is especially fraught, given its: a) expense; b) class implications; c) access to good schools/public transportation, etc.

I could go on, but lunch hour is over - gotta get back to work!

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 22, 2009 3:03 PM

biggest sales are sales in priciest neighborhoods and in that sense outlier (not indicative of mean or average Brooklyn price). But does not mean they are outliers for the neighborhoods they are in. And they are real comps for future sales. Whether the biggest sales are up down or sidewides in price per sq ft for those blocks is important also when compared with other time periods.
It is not like there are 6 townhouse sales per week in Cobble/Carroll/Boerum. There are not even 6 sales per month. But if there is one, almost guaranteed it will make biggest sale list.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 22, 2009 3:05 PM

Agree, Pete. I never understood calling these biggest sales "outliers" as Muffy does relentlessly because brownstones, by their very nature and scarcity are outliers.

These are properties we've discussed here either as HOTD or in general terms (The Vermeil) etc. That doesn't make them "outliers," it makes them properties sold in expensive areas.

In any case, if properties are selling for these prices after the fallout from the past year, I think it's pretty safe to say that a crash in the Brownstone Brooklyn market simply never materialized despite what Muffy and BHO wished would happen.

And if you look through Streeteasy, these may be the "biggest sales" but there are many properties which sold just under these prices, and there are a huge batch of properties (mostly apartments) which sell in these neighborhoods for 800K - 1.2 million (and of course under that amount)...

Huge prices no matter how you slice it.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 3:11 PM

seems obvious that the widget would be wrong on the stuff that is selling no?

Posted by: bitter_bubble_buyer at September 22, 2009 3:12 PM

Well, 462 8th Street was in Park Slope and that had a 600K price chop, so that's a comp too. Again, there are many ways to view the current data but I think most if not all are in agreement about ongoing downward pressure.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 22, 2009 3:16 PM

Actually, MM, not everyone is in agreement about that:

BLOOMBERG NEWS
Home Prices Rise 0.3% in Sign of Halting Rebound

Five out of nine U.S. regions had price increases July from June, led by a 1.6 percent gain in the area that includes California, the FHFA said. New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania had the second-largest advance with a 1 percent increase.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 3:19 PM

'Well, 462 8th Street was in Park Slope and that had a 600K price chop, so that's a comp too."

I do not see a 600K price chop, and the listing went to contract after just 3 months on the market.

462 8th Street

03/10/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $2,396,000.
04/03/2009
Price decreased by 6% to $2,250,000.
04/29/2009
Price decreased by 9% to $2,050,000.
06/18/2009
Listing entered contract.
07/13/2009
Listing is no longer available.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 3:23 PM

Well, 11217, time will tell. Stimulus funds and low interest rates are factoring in the current mix and won't forever. Plus, New York in the Bloomberg report is state-wide, whereas NYC has its own specifics (i.e. much bigger bubble). OK, now I *really* have to get back to work...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 22, 2009 3:24 PM

Rehiring has started on Wall St and now GM. An "outlier" in Brooklyn would be $5MM +++

These are the places being bought by those that bklynplebe refers to as "fools" in the HOTD.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 22, 2009 3:30 PM

11217 - re: 462 8th Street (actually 462A) see the brownstoner entry:

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/07/last_weeks_bigg_71.php

As we all know (you especially), Streeteasy is often incorrect.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 22, 2009 3:32 PM

So you don't think 1.8 million for a townhouse on 8th Street is a good price?

I sure do.

Especially when we see that the market price (these days) for a North Slope (named street) home is 2.2 million.

2.4 million was an ABSURD asking price for that house. You don't seem to understand the difference between asking and sales price.

So if they had been asking 3.4 million would you be carrying on about a 1.6 million dollar price chop signaling the end of the world as we know it...? Do you see how silly basing all your evidence on ASKING prices is yet?

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 3:36 PM

In my opinion the easiest way to see price changes are with resales in newish condos. THere we have recent comps and little chance of improvements/renovations when in resales of townhouses or older coops.
I said earlier today that I saw a resale at 675 Sackett (I think right address) that certainly indicated down price % there. Would be glad to hear about other addresses also, because stats thrown out in media certainly do indicate lower prices. Yet, most addresses I have seen with these resale I have seen little movement.
Not disagreeing or being disagreable, MM...I'm just one of those analyst types that like to pour over real data.
It is much too difficult with the townhouse market.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 22, 2009 3:39 PM

Pete...I think they are two separate & distinct markets. Most condo owners don't want a brownstone & vice versa. The brownstone market IS much smaller and that has been my basis all along for saying that prices will hold up much better than condos.

I think new condo developments carry additional baggage as well and should be avoided. The unscertainty as to the developer and quality of construction in most of them is a huge risk. Older, well established ones do not have those sort of problems.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 22, 2009 3:43 PM

"Why is it that real estate is such a touchy subject?"

Anything that costs a great deal of money and has a bedroom is bound to be touchy ;)

MM has good points on this though, relating to the size of the investment, all the things a house represents...

Personally I am of the opinion that those who are waiting for the market to fall a great deal from here AND who expect to have the guts and agility to buy IF and WHEN that were to happen are bound to be surprised. As are those who expect a full recovery any time soon.

I am going to wager that rates on 30 year fixed loans have not seen their low, and that they will stay sticky on the low side for longer than people expect. That and the fact that many potential sellers either have been flushed out or will simply sit it out rather than sell below their uniquely personal view of what their house is worth. Prices can come "down" just by virtue of going nowhere for a good while, but the raw numbers stick in everyone's minds.

There is no sense debating whether there is a true recovery in prices until such a time as rates AND prices go up together.

As for someone who is waiting for the perfect moment to game the bottom, one has to consider one's time, one's ability to get financing at any given time, the cost of financing, the availability of an actual house that suits one......

Posted by: raphael9 at September 22, 2009 3:58 PM

Well said, raphael9

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 22, 2009 4:00 PM

there is a correlation between TH and Condos, though weaker than most might guess. Right now the price gap is increasing for lots of reasons discussed in these threads.

of course there are houses like 8th st that are mispriced but that happens in all markets. beware the ask.

as pbk correctly notes, to have an informed discussion one must look at the data from resales of comparable properties. Everything here in the stoner world is speculation since every house is different (really, it's true!) and there are very few TH that sold at peak and have already re-sold. pbk is also focused on condos where there is a much higher liklihood that we will start to see more useful data points. but it is not as tightly correlated as many think. supply issues, carry costs, developer issues make them seem riskier in a tougher market so their prices tumble more. when world improves the gap will shrink.

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 4:00 PM

i'm sorry i missed raphael1 through 8.

if you posted this two months ago, you would've been accosted.

spot on.

Posted by: antidope at September 22, 2009 4:10 PM

"1 bedrooms which had dropped as low as 1500 in the North Slope"

Late to the party - I've been looking for 1 bedroom rentals all over the place the past week or so (yes, even Park Slope) and I haven't seen ANYTHING remotely liveable in PS for under 2k.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at September 22, 2009 4:14 PM

have only read a few comments in this thread but have the following observations:

1. The Miss Muffett haters can kiss my ass. Muffett is articulate and determined. If you don't agree with her then your recourse is to be articulate and determined in your own position, not attack her personally.

2. I haven't commented on prices in ages, as I made the decision to rent for another year rather than but and I don't want to think too much about the market in the meantime. But I will reiterate what I have said pretty much all along:

- prime brownstones not going to fall too much more
- condos in non-prime areas going to take a beating
- new condos in particular are a very dangerous investment right now (but Lincoln Place probably OK)
- Vermeil was ridiculously overpriced out of the gate (don't know how many times I repeated this)

I will also offer my view that no one should feel the least bit pressured into buying right now on the threat that they might miss a run-up in prices, because they won't. Prices will be either flat or down from here, at least for a while. If you are in a place in your life where it makes sense to buy then go ahead, but there will be zero pricing pressure on buyers for a while.

Done. Back to endless banter on the OT rather than engaging in actual discussions about real estate.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2009 4:20 PM

I don't disagree, DIBS, but too difficult to see real data on townhouse resales. They don't get resold too often and really don't know what improvements are made.
Condos are more generic and it seems a bit more transient so I see resales and so easier to see trends.
I think they (townhouses and condos ) would trend direction-wise together(not necessarily at same rate)...except perhaps if a major glut of new development in an area.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 22, 2009 4:23 PM

DH:

What about these...? :

http://www.idealpropertiesgroup.com/property/details/13735#img_preview

http://newyork.craigslist.org/brk/fee/1386713683.html

http://newyork.craigslist.org/brk/nfb/1387042967.html

http://newyork.craigslist.org/brk/abo/1387022601.html

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 4:25 PM

11217...the first two are studios...dh said 1 bedroom. I didn't check the last two since the first two did reflect what he's looking for

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 22, 2009 4:37 PM

Thanks 11217 - the studios actually look lovely and the price is right. But those are def outliers. What I've been seeing is 1600 for nice studio and one bedrooms at least 2,000 (there's still a buttload of 2500 1 bedrooms floating around north slope)

I guess my point is - rents seem to be holding up pretty well in Brooklyn - despite everyone predicting a mass exodus to Manhattan due to their declining rents. (Based entirely on what i've seen in PS/WB/CG)

**goes to call about the 2nd listing**

Posted by: dirty_hipster at September 22, 2009 4:43 PM

DH - Stuff gets cheaper as you go further south in the Slope. Depends on what you're after. I lived for years on a numbered street off 5th Ave and really enjoyed it. It wasn't as picturesque as the streets up near GAP, but the price, location and landlord were great.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 22, 2009 4:50 PM

Lechacal - agree with your asessment. Rates and prices are not likely to rise any time soon, whether or not they crash - who knows. Add in the fact that rent is still less than the interest and common charges on an 80% mortgage in most places, it doesn't seem to make economic sense to buy right now. The sidelines are a comfortable place to sit right now. Long term NY muni funds earning 3.5% triple tax free for me.

Posted by: Brokedeveloper at September 22, 2009 4:55 PM

Agree with you there Ditmas. Really the *only* thing that makes North Slope far superior to the rest (in my mind) is being so close to the Q train at 7th Avenue and the 2/3 trains at either Bergen Street or Grand Army Plaza.

I can be in Union Square on the Q in under 20 minutes, door to door.

Any of those options are leaps and bounds better than the F. I lived near the F before and no matter how much I love the South Slope, I'd never want to live near that train exclusively again.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 4:58 PM

Yeah Ditmas/11217 - I enjoy the Center/South Slope just as much as North - but the Q train is much better than the F (but not 300 bucks a month nicer)

That reminds me - I saw a real dump on Prospect right around the corner from the Q and it was horrible! The broker wanted 1700 for it and he seemed embarassed to be showing it. Poor guy.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at September 22, 2009 5:04 PM

> the Q train is much better than the F

I hear ya. That's one of the reasons I opted for Ditmas Park over Kensington.

As for the Slope, you could look around the 4th Ave/9th Street stop. Then you can take the R two stops and change at Atlantic for just about any train you could want.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 22, 2009 5:15 PM

Yes, thank you Rafael9. Interesting. And everyone was relatively cordial today, sane...except for that little "KMA" outburst from someone above.

I agree that the Q is great. I know am/sound like a broken record...but Fort Greene has nearly all the trains so is super-duper convenient. I guess if you live in the western tip of Prospect Heights, the edge of Park Slope around 5th to 4th Avenues or in Boerum Hill close to the big intersection of Flatbush and Atlantic, you access those trains as well. It really is a plus if you need to get around.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 22, 2009 5:36 PM

the whole Miss Muffett thing is just strange. Her opinions seem to be pointless. you can talk something up - like an area, an architectural trend, etc... not sure that you can talk it down in the same way. it's hard to find everything you want in real estate in NYC for everyone. i've looked in 3 different time periods, and all involved a great deal of leg work. it never occurred to me to just keep saying over and over again that stuff out of my price range should be in my price range. MM - just go figure it out. NYC is pricey and will always be.

DAVE - where is your data for this NY Times like opinion pretending to be fact:
"I think new condo developments carry additional baggage as well and should be avoided. The unscertainty as to the developer and quality of construction in most of them is a huge risk. Older, well established ones do not have those sort of problems."

I have owned 2 100+ year old homes, one a brownstone, and what you've said it so far from the truth it's hysterical! The first time I bought in Brooklyn, I looked at like maybe 70 Brownstones and brought an architect with me if I was remotely serious. The average price quotes to fix the places was like $350K plus the price of having to carry a mortgage and rent somewhere else. Brownstones are freakin money pits and an ongoing commitment. I'm impressed that you've created rental income for yourself, it's smart, but, really brand new apartments are cake to live in and require little past decorating. Plus we have a management company and a super.

Posted by: wine lover at September 22, 2009 5:41 PM

Don't entirely disagree with Lechacal, however I have the following two points:

1. One factor that you are discounting is interest rates. They are unlikely to slide much more than where they are now. They can only really go up. If you have the cash now for a good sized down payment and can part with it safely, it may make sense to take advantage of interest rates.

2. New construction, the desperation to get rid of inventory that we are seeing with a lot of new construction now may disappear as the economy sures up. The prices of condos may be flat or go down on average, but the deals that people can find because of the desperation of the developers may dry up.

Let's wait and see!

Posted by: JENNYFROMTHEBLOCK at September 22, 2009 5:52 PM

"Her opinions seem to be pointless"

At least she isn't racist.

Have you noticed that no one ever responds to your posts wine lover and that no one cares what you think anymore after your racist outbursts and subsequent desperation to prop up your condo's price by shameless and irrational diatribes about how Williamsburg is the center of the universe.

It's absurd. People have called you out time and time again and you still continue to post.

Posted by: 11217 at September 22, 2009 5:57 PM

"1. One factor that you are discounting is interest rates. They are unlikely to slide much more than where they are now. They can only really go up. If you have the cash now for a good sized down payment and can part with it safely, it may make sense to take advantage of interest rates."

Prices go down when interest rates go up.

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2009 6:05 PM

Oh yeah, one more thing as long as I'm patting myself on the back for my predictions: all winter I was saying I like equities and don't like real estate (and I was buying equities and renting the whole time). How do you like me now?

Posted by: lechacal at September 22, 2009 7:42 PM

i don't see anything wrong with giving a gift to an attorney, if you want to. they certainly wouldn't expect one.

if you would like to select one from my website, enter "brownstoner" in the coupon code and receive a 15% discount on all purchases. there is no charge for shipping. pen 55, ab intra (from within, in latin) in particular is a favorite with attorneys, as is ph70 the scales of justice. www.jzpens.com

Posted by: jzpenscom at September 23, 2009 3:44 PM

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