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September 15, 2009

Last Week's Biggest Sales

lwbs%209-15-09.jpg

1. FORT GREENE $2,395,000
49 South Portland Avenue GMAP (left)
This house sold quickly, and for more than its asking price: The large 2-family was listed for $2,200,000 in late May, according to StreetEasy. Entered into contract on 6/25/09; closed on 8/21/09; deed recorded on 9/11/09.

2. COBBLE HILL $2,225,000
132 Pacific Street GMAP (right)
This 3,350-sf, 2-family was asking $2.75 million. Entered into contract on 6/12/09; closed on 8/14/09; deed recorded on 9/10/09.

3. BROOKLYN HEIGHTS $2,000,000
9 Pierrepont Street, #2 GMAP
It looks like this sale is probably of the large lower duplex that was a Co-op of the Day a couple of times, most recently this June, when the price had been dropped from $2.95 million (that was in April '08) to $2,335,000. Closed on 9/8/09; deed recorded on 9/11/09.

4. CARROLL GARDENS $1,750,000
277 President Street, #1B GMAP
This 2,235-sf, 3-bedroom condo was first listed for $2,195,000 last July and was asking $1,849,000 by this March, according to StreetEasy. Entered into contract on 5/12/09; closed on 8/31/09; deed recorded on 9/8/09.

5. CARROLL GARDENS $1,745,500
355 Degraw Street GMAP
This 2-family townhouse was first listed for $1.95 million in March, according to StreetEasy. The price was cut to $1,875,000 in May. The house last sold for $1.36 million in 2004. Entered into contract on 6/19/09; closed on 8/19/09; deed recorded on 9/9/09.

Photos from Property Shark

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Comments

Post Lehman. :)

I stand by my prediction that Brooklyn brownstone prices will bottom by December.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 15, 2009 11:36 AM

that seems like bargain on Pacific St. (very expensive block)
Is because used sub-par unknown realtor - and/or
lower duplex has kitchen parlor on garden level and bedrooms on parlor level?

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 15, 2009 11:36 AM

Oh Brickoven, wherever have you gone? We now have the first set of data coming from some of the darkest days of the downturn…

With the closing of 216 Maple St (HOTD 4/30/09) at 10% over widget (7% off ask for those interested)…

And the closing of 743 Eastern Parkway (HOTD 4/20/09) at 12% over widget (6% off ask)…

We now have 9 closings since the widget was begat. (Side note, to those who claim property is sitting: that is 9 out of 20 from April 1- May 4, with another in contract, 7 others have been pulled, one perhaps rented. Still offered: grand total of 3, including the grossly overpriced 65 Prospect Park West.) (Side side note: this group includes properties in all price ranges, including 3 over 2mio and 5 over 1.5 mio.)

In aggregate, that is nine properties that have sold for $11.4 mio versus a collective widget price of $9.9 mio, or 15% above widget; not a single sale price less than 10% above the widget. The collective ask was $12.2 mio, so average sale price was 6.5% off ask.

Perhaps Brickoven has ridden off into the sun already? I look forward to hearing the cacophony about how stupid buyers are, it’s just a matter of time, headwinds/tailwinds, can’t catch a falling knife, etcetera…

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 11:38 AM

At $1,906,172, for once, the widget wasn't too far off on the Pierrepont Street duplex.

Posted by: CarrollGardened at September 15, 2009 11:39 AM

Thank you for that data, antidope. I hope cornerbodega can understand it.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 15, 2009 11:42 AM

I feel that Team Reasonable should say that this data could be interpreted in many ways and that to be reasonable one should not try to spin any kind of dramatic narrative either way. Certainly high end houses appear to be selling at close to asking prices if they are quality properties, but beyond that it would seem prudent to refrain from calling bottom yet. Just my 2 cents...

Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2009 11:55 AM

One above ask, one below ask, three below ask after price chops. Interesting.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 15, 2009 11:59 AM

The widget is silly. There are always 5 silly people who pick the absolute lowest price and a handful of people who pick well above ask, which is equally silly.

You guys are a bunch of Silly McSillymeisters.

As for these sales, it shows there is still a rather strong market for high end homes, but I would guess these prices are still probably 20% off peak. Not bad.

Posted by: Brokedeveloper at September 15, 2009 12:06 PM

my $0.02.

the only way to "know" what's happening in real estate is to catch a house (or coop) that's resold.

that is the methodology used by CS. it leaves unresolved the fact that many homes receive upgrades/investment but it is not possible to adjust for that.

since we have so very few resales in any given neighborhood (or category), it is difficult to say anything definitively.

to me, this data says that the collective mood on this website reflected a typical market overshoot as of april.

and that was what i was saying at the time.

i was not saying it was a bottom.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 12:09 PM

I agree antidope about the resales. And why I think more possible to get that data on newish condo bldgs....
and those I have seen are nowhere near 20% drop...flat pricing is about what I have seen. Does not mean that others are not trying to sell and not able to get orig price.
SO again..anyone from these new condos...chime in with any resales in your bldg.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 15, 2009 12:13 PM

regardless of ask, what it was bought for b4, etc, these sale prices look strong. $2M bucks is 2M bucks and in my book, that's a serious conviction/commitment to shove that much $$$ into a residence.

DIBS, we might need to have a friendly wager on the brownstoner bottom out in Dec. Let's discuss details on the side

Posted by: more4less at September 15, 2009 12:19 PM

I'm with you wasder. I do think the data is taking on significance as to the performance of the widget vs. sale price though. Maybe my new tag should be bid widget+10%. I wonder with BHO's and what's hiatuses (hiati?) whether the widget will become more accurate. We're a consistent bunch -- widget is fairly consistent in how low it is, not a lot of variance and it is not wildly low.

Posted by: slopefarm at September 15, 2009 12:21 PM

antidope--I hear you. And I agree that the collective mood on this site was an over-reaction to the data available. Still, given the over-abundance of exuberance on the way up I am loathe to replicate that mood when the bleeds looks to be easing.

Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2009 12:22 PM

i have seen condos that are 20%, maybe 25% off peak, actually. we will have more data on this category, for sure.

single families in good condition, 10-15% off.

my gut is that very few of the 1-family homes were bought at peak prices and the vast majority do not turn over that frequently (and therefore have tons of equity, even post lehman correction). certainly sellers with any options are not putting up their family's biggest asset in this market unless i) they are picking up and leaving the best city in the world or 2) they are of the bho/brickoven/cornerbodega opinion that we are about to enter armegeddon.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 12:22 PM

i think the widget will get smarter as time passes because the panic seems to be abating. april mood was miserable.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 12:32 PM

I'm still a little surprised by that cobble hill house. that price looks cheap relative prices in that area. pic's and flr plan looks good to me

Posted by: more4less at September 15, 2009 12:35 PM

The widget will not get any smarter because the widget is not properly designed to guess how much a property will sell for. Doesn't make it a bad thing, it will just never do what some people seem to want it to do.

Posted by: Ledbury at September 15, 2009 12:36 PM

The widget will not get any smarter because it relies on The Wisdom of the Crowds, an oxymoron of epic proportions.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 15, 2009 12:37 PM

DS, you have it half right. However, in non-volatile moments (less emotional times) it will approach the actual selling price.

Led, i don't necessarily agree with you. if people who are active in the real estate market are not being whacked by psychological overshooting associated with booms and busts, then i see no good reason why the widget couldn't do a better job.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 12:53 PM

You may well be right, antidope. But I suspect it will be at least a couple of years before we approach that sort of calm.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 15, 2009 1:03 PM

Ditmas--totally agree...Several years will need to go by before that kind of calm will be seen around here.

Posted by: wasder at September 15, 2009 1:09 PM

The owner that turned 277 president st and the building next door into condos has made a lot of money. Those units sold for big bucks.

Posted by: sebb at September 15, 2009 1:14 PM

Flat pricing, Pete? I highly doubt that. I could be sold on antidope's 10-15% (versus my WAG of 20%)on nicer places without compromises, but flat prices from the peak is just silly.
I rent in a condo building from an individual owner, and I know what the owner paid for the place, and I can say there is no way they could get anywhere near what they paid for the place now. They would have to drop the price by 35% or more.
I bought a condo in 2003 and sold it in 2005 for a 60% profit, and have since followed the sales in that building. The asking prices there are now about where they were when I was selling my unit. They certainly went up and down in between.
I am no "half-off"-the-world-is-falling-apart type. But to say prices are flat, even on prime properties, is just plain crazy.

Posted by: Brokedeveloper at September 15, 2009 1:17 PM

Anti -
Can't have a wisdom of crowds style predictor with a one sided boundry. The asking price, in this market, is essentialy that one sided boundry. Even taking the idea that every guess is in good faith for granted, you need to be able to balance those who honestly think the house will sell for $1.5 with those who honestly think it will sell for $2.5. If they are only asking $2.35, the $2.5 guess will never be made and the resulting "prediction" artificially low.
Now if we are in a market where 50% of sales are above ask then fine, we may have something. But it not working now isn't a matter of sentiment, but reality of the marketplace.

Posted by: Ledbury at September 15, 2009 1:21 PM

The Cobble Hill place is very close to LICH. Its very noisy on that block with the ambulance sirens heading to the hospital. Definitely not prime, leafy Cobble Hill.

Posted by: ilikeslices at September 15, 2009 1:31 PM

L-
I follow your logic, but disagree. I am NOT saying the widget WILL accurately reflect price but that in calmer times it will more closely track.
Also, who cares what the ask is? why does that matter? your argument would only make sense if the bounds placed on the range of any given property were not wide enough to capture the "actual" sales price. That is not the case now.

It works both ways. In a bubble (ie, if this widget existed 2-4 years ago, the widget would have reflected the wide-eyed optismism often lamented by the bigger bears here and over-priced by comparable levels.

W-
we'll see about calm, but i think we are now effectively in a calm market -- negative sentiment will abate, but healthy skepticism will remain -- and i expect it to stay here for a while. unless another economic shoe drops. Derivatives, anyone...

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 1:39 PM

> i think we are now effectively in a calm market

Calm? It's practically comatose.

- http://nymag.com/realestate/realestatecolumn/58963/

"One excellent indicator of a neighborhood’s situation in the near future is how many closings are taking place there, because it measures both activity and ease of sale. And according to data compiled by the team at StreetEasy.com, between April and June the number of closings dipped 77.9 percent in Tribeca, compared with the same period last year. Three other well-established neighborhoods were also high up in the pack: 52.7 percent in the West Village, 44 percent in Carnegie Hill, and 50.8 percent on the Upper West Side."

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 15, 2009 1:43 PM

DS-
I don't disagree, but I stand by my description. Comatose and calm are not mutually exclusive. What you will note is the absence of panic selling even in the Apr - May HOTD data. Equal numbers pulled as sold. Equity is providing the cushion that is supporting the market. Without that, surely there would be a lot more pressured sales than we are seeing. If you believe more bad news to come then the market price can fall precipitously from here, no doubt. I don't believe that scenario is likely anymore, but I grant that it looked more likely/possible in March/April.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 1:51 PM

Ledbury,

I still think your logic is flawed. If no one thinks that anything will go above ask, then the asking price is acting as a correct, and not distorting, barrier. The skew comes from an excess of lowball guesses, not a dearth of high guesses. Even before the widget, and even in the bubble,you could always count on a bunch of folks to complain that the asking price was too high. Often, they turned out to be wrong, pre and post Lehman. The widget reflects a real bias, not a design flaw.

Posted by: slopefarm at September 15, 2009 1:53 PM

Anti - The ask matters becuase once you hit the ask, you are generally done. So if a house is asking $2.5 and three people think the house will sell for $2.4, $2.3, and $2.2, they will guess $2.4, $2.3, and $2.2. If three other people think the house will sell for $2.6, $2.7, and $2.8, they will all guess $2.5 because they know that aren't a lot of bidding wars nowadays. Now instead of a $2.5 million result (which is the actual average of sentiment) your widget returns $2.4.
As for the otehr direction in the bubble, I agree that might be the case. Which is just more evidence that the widget doesn't do what you are suggesting it should.

Posted by: Ledbury at September 15, 2009 1:54 PM

All the widget does is spit back what is put into it.

GIGO.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at September 15, 2009 2:01 PM

disagree about Pacific St. sale ..that is definitely a leafy prime quier block. And why would ambulance go down that street when ends at Henry?---not at e.r. room entrance.
Not that LICH e.r. is so popular anyway.
I still think cheap price because parlor used as bedroom floor and noname realtor.

Brokedeveloper: I said perhaps people would have trouble getting their orig price but fact is that since they are not willing to sell at lower price means no deal.
Please supply the resales that show the drop in price at these bldg....I have asked many times but nobody has shown me the sales yet.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 15, 2009 2:05 PM

L-
all you are saying is the range of available bidding should be wider. and it started wider, but was reduced bc of non-serious bidding over the ask. slopefarm has the math right.

finally, i was one of the first to doubt the accuracy of the widget. my thesis was basically described by that laughable snark: wisdom of the crowds. there was no lament ever that it wasn't doing what it should be doing. who would ever think that? hello Brickoven. anyone home?

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 2:07 PM

I didn't take you for a spitter, Snark.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 15, 2009 2:19 PM

PBK-
perhaps nobody wants to show you the data in their own building bc they think it will weaken the building or potentially affect future sales?

i will say generically that i know of multiple (4) resales in one newish condo in prime park slope that sold 10-15% off peak comp sale in building, but that peak comp was from mid 2007. making an adjustment for subsequent year of market appreciation, i get to 20%. One of the sales didn't require the hoops, it sold 20% off 01/08 price.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 2:33 PM

Anti and Slope - The answer would be to not include the asking price. If I am selling a sweater and ask how much you think I might get for it, Anti might guess its worth $20 and Slope might guess $40. The "wisdom" would put the price at $30. The minute I tell you I will sell to the first guy who gives me $25 for it, is Slope still going to guess $40? No. His opinion of its worth hasn't changed, but he has be cued into the fact that his guess is too high and he naturally adjusts. There is no other side to that right now. So saying that the widget means that people who are bearish are more incorrectly bearish than the bulls are bullish is not a fair conclusion.

Posted by: Ledbury at September 15, 2009 2:41 PM

so - what is the address antidope? all this is public record.Don't need to hide it.

Posted by: Petebklyn at September 15, 2009 2:46 PM

yes it is public record, but one thing this website has taught me is that a lot of people active in bk real estate don't really pay much attention to the actual numbers!!!

i have a lot of friends still over there and would not want to post about ONE building that has shown decreases. even if i believe it is no different than all other condos, until everyone starts posting about all condos it becomes the one target.

i will hunt for numbers on some other condos though. I really don't think it will be hard to find comparable data.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 3:02 PM

the trend in prices is down across the board, I dont see anything good about these sales. i hope we have hit a bottom but I have a bad feeling we have not

Posted by: bitter_bubble_buyer at September 15, 2009 3:24 PM

Well, I have to say, I'm not so scared about selling with prices like these!

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 15, 2009 4:03 PM

Although, I should qualify that. We are part of the old(er) guard so we have what the young(er) guard calls "a lot of equity". Still...we would probably sold for more eighteen months ago.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 15, 2009 4:16 PM

which supports the point that many sellers a) may not achieve top dollar, but b) will not be pressured into a forced sale.

Posted by: antidope at September 15, 2009 4:26 PM

I represent "many sellers"? I guess that's nice. I wouldn't mind selling and have been talking about it for ages. But, yes, for now, we're not "pressured" into a forced sale.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 15, 2009 5:05 PM

« Street Clutter in Brooklyn? Condo of the Day: 84 Front Street, #8C »

September 15, 2009

Last Week's Biggest Sales

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