Development Watch: 170 North 5th Street

I like it. this and nforth (stupid name) and the original toll brothers mini-development on n8th and the gene kaufman one overlooking the oil spill mess on n11th are the best looking new buildings in this part of williamsburg, IMHO.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 3:08 PM

that number--10,000--almost certainly includes units from planned developments that will not be built, at least not in the time frame you're talking about.

it is an amazing thing to be hold, but the data are available in the rolling sales reports. people are still paying upwards of $600K and even $700K for 2BR units, and definitely a lot more than $500 psf.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 3:12 PM

type "aged ipe" into GIS if you want to see what it will look like in a few years. better than teak.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 3:14 PM

I've been looking out for a 1BR for a sibling, and I think I'm going to advise her to make an offer on a particular condo resale. the developers may be slow to lower prices, at least list prices. however there are people here and there reselling condos they've purchases in the last 4-5 years, and they don't all have the luxury of being that patient. this place is right around $500 psf, but it's on the east side of the BQE.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 3:27 PM

just what would be included in shadow industry in williamsburg? buildings yet to be completed? buildings seized or in the process of being seized by the lenders?

I mean, I know pretty much every block and have eyeballed every single development, from empty lots to the nearly completed and already sold ones. unless you're counting the elusive third tower in NS piers (that will not get built) or the dominos development (that will also not get built), I don't see how you arrive at even half that figure.

considering a number of small to medium projects that have gone rental lately, and that number seems even more fanciful.

and 11217, it doesn't help your argument any that you're comparing (in your own words) williamsburg's "shadow inventory" to park slope's corcoran listings for effect.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 3:48 PM

most of the developments here are (way) under 30 units. certainly there are many that are sitting in different states of partial to full completion, some with money issues, some with sales issue. but it would take hundreds of such buildings for those numbers to make sense. you can count the number of mega developments in williamsburg on one hand--there are 2, NS Piers and the Edge. then there are a few more large ones, notably on lower Kent Ave.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:01 PM

I'm not saying the market in williamsburg is strong. I agree that condo prices have outpaced certain family amenities like schools, though those are coming along (public and private). you're wrong about the parks, of which there are more in williamsburg than any neighborhood not around prospect park. and no one can deny that it's pretty ugly, especially the ironically most pleasant part in which to live by the graham stop. I think the price cuts need to happen to move the overpriced 1BR and 2BR units that all look the same.

but I live in williamsburg and have for 12+ years and walk around a ton. if you add up the total number of units in all the little developments that have been built or are being built, including everything that's sold over the last few years, you might get 3500 units.

to suggest that the anecdotal evidence of, let's say, dozens of these mostly smaller developments sitting fallow bolsters a claim of up to 10,000 units of inventory/shadow inventory is crazy. you don't get to numbers like that without factoring in mega developments that aren't going to happen. the number is almost certainly half that, and probably even less than that.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:18 PM

the only successful aesthetic williamsburg could ever aspire to is some kind of urban electic, so I welcome all the different buildings, even the ones that (unlike this one) are pretty ugly on their own. anything that isn't gray brick, that is.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:29 PM

oh, and as for trees, that there awning might get in the way, don't you think? most of the new developments cap off with some sad looking saplings in front.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:31 PM

except that there aren't anywhere near 2,820 units for sale at the moment.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:37 PM

I'm saying that those estimates must be including what you're referring to as shadow inventory, and I'd still like to look at their methodology for estimating that. also, for estimating the volume of new units that are going to come on line.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:42 PM

> So Apts and Lofts (a real estate company) would like to inflate the number of apartments for sale to what advantage exactly...?

that's a good question. I would say to scare developers into using a broker and into lowering prices in order to increase sales volumes, if I were to speculate.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:52 PM

you can download the entire sales for brooklyn in 2006. there are only 1100 rows total in the document for 11211, the zip code of basically all of williamsburg. that's condos, coops, single and multifamily homes and dozens if not hundreds of phantom transactions.

if you're east of this zip code, you're in bushwick. north is greenpoint, and south is technically williamsburg, but it's hasid country.

gerrymandering zip codes may be one way these estimates are being goosed, say by including bushwick and greenpoint. even still, these numbers are highly suspect.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 4:56 PM

brokers may also be engaging in some expectations management re their developer clients.

absent some mega developments (like dominos) that will account for 3-5000 units, those numbers just don't add up.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 5:05 PM

I agree that most of the list prices from developers look silly to me. the only places I've looked at seriously for my sister have been condo resales and a few 2-family homes where I've watched the prices slide down from ridiculous to territory that looks interesting.

but if you're basing your expected price decreases in williamsburg and the duration of the price drops on future inventory, there is indeed a huge difference in what one might expect with those various numbers you posted. and I feel pretty confident that the reality will be on the lowest end of your estimates.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 5:11 PM

bah humbug indeed.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 5:23 PM

if you buy into 11217's numbers, existing residents will soon be taking up collections to pay people to occupy the empty units in order that we may have at least a potemkin williamsburg to show to the world.

Posted by: mt_molehill at September 30, 2009 5:43 PM