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August 18, 2009

Looking for the Bottom

Ever since the real estate bubble burst and market indicators across the board started plummeting, everyone has wanted to know when the market was going to reach bottom. Well, maybe we're there, nationally speaking. Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, thinks so; he told AP via Fox News that "the freefall is over." AP cited several nationwide statistics from the past two weeks: "home resales in June are up 9 percent from January, on a seasonally adjusted basis; sales of new homes have climbed 17 percent during the same period; and construction, while still anemic, has risen almost 20 percent since the beginning of the year." In the Northeast, "home resales in June hit a seasonally adjusted pace of 820,000, up 28 percent from the beginning of the year. Sales of new homes were also up slightly and construction in the region more than doubled." It is the amateur statistician, however, that reads too deeply in short-term statistics. The improvements in the market, so far, can only provide hope that the worst is behind us, but economists warn that even if this is the bottom of the barrel, we may stay down there for a while longer.
Welcome to the Bottom [Fox News]
Photo by AvarieRiot

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Comments

From what I see on the listings on Brownstoner, house prices, at least in Brooklyn, remain preposterous and far out of reach of ordinary people--even houses in highly problematic neighborhoods. A drop of even 25% or so in something whose value was inflated by, what, 50%?, is progress, but the bubble is still only partially deflated. What some would call the "bottom" I would call "sanity." When cops, firemen, and teachers can afford to buy a home in NYC without incurring terrifying mountains of debt (or renting out an apartment at a princely sum), that will be a good sign that we're back to a realistic valuation. Perhaps it will also put a permanent end to the gold-rush mentality, and people will go back to buying houses as homes instead of lottery tickets.

Posted by: Brenda from Flatbush at August 18, 2009 9:40 AM

Again with this meme?

Many cops, firemen, and teachers make in excess of $100,000 and have retirement benefits that far excede anything available in the private sector. Real estate prices are one thing but cops, firemen, and teachers are more than fairly compensated.

Posted by: eh at August 18, 2009 9:46 AM

they be making 100K, but it's still not enough to buy even a crappy rowhouse in the outborough ghettoes.

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at August 18, 2009 9:49 AM

NYC is not made up of "ordinary people," Brenda. I hear what you are saying but the market is the market. It does not clear at what some may deem a "socially acceptable" level. Brooklyn is an extension of Manhattan, and probably the most desirable of all the alternatives to Manhattan. Bronx & Queens will always sell at a discount to Brooklyn. There are homes affordable by "ordinary people" within subway reach of Manhattan, but probably not brownstone Brooklyn.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 9:50 AM

Don't cops, firefighters and teachers OWN Staten Island? And, last time I checked, it was part of NYC.

Posted by: new2hood at August 18, 2009 9:57 AM

Personally know several teachers who own homes in Park Slope - and don't rent anything out. Work for NYC public schools.

New grads - different story, but now there is a glut of pretty damn affordable condos one can buy or apartments one can rent...

Posted by: bupe at August 18, 2009 9:58 AM

DIBS,

I agree with Brenda. Prime hoods in Man, BK, Qns, BX expensive / out of reach is understandable. but when one struggles to come up with an answer of where can one buy a regular house in a good safe neighborhood without making big bucks, we've got issues.

Posted by: more4less at August 18, 2009 10:00 AM

> a glut of pretty damn affordable condos

HA! They aren't affordable. Yet. Keep sitting on the sidelines, the bottom still awaits us all somewhere down the road.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at August 18, 2009 10:03 AM

m4l, Manhattan = Hong Kong Island...Staten Island = New Territories....very similar situation.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:03 AM

shoot, I bet you some people own residence in west village or near central park and not make big bucks but that doesn't mean those areas are affordable for the regular Joe looking to buy something. Rather it means, those particular folks in those prime areas were lucky or smart enough to buy their residence when prices were not Massive.

Posted by: more4less at August 18, 2009 10:03 AM

"Many cops, firemen, and teachers make in excess of $100,000"

I don't know many NYC teachers in this category, except those at the very end of their careers.

"Personally know several teachers who own homes in Park Slope"

Bupe, so do I. They fall into two categories: those who bought a looooooong time ago, and those who were born wealthy or married into wealth.

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at August 18, 2009 10:07 AM

DIBS, where in Staten Island can some one afford to buy something with out making some big bucks (ie 100k+)?

Posted by: more4less at August 18, 2009 10:07 AM

Where are BHO, cornerbodega & Miss Muffett to refute this evidence?????? Maybe they are still trying to understand what a second derivative is.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:08 AM

> refute this evidence??????

Refutation begins when actual evidence is presented. Nothing to see here, folks, move along.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at August 18, 2009 10:13 AM

"Maybe they are still trying to understand what a second derivative is."

What will happen to interest rates? That's your "Second Derivative"!

"Where are BHO, cornerbodega & Miss Muffett to refute this evidence??????"

Like the Forte Condo??????

Whatever..

The What (Yawn)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at August 18, 2009 10:14 AM

What is your prediction for rates What? And, more importantly what is the timeframe??

If you don't answer I'm going to assume you're busy putting together your dance video to "I'm a Barbie Girl."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:20 AM

"What is your prediction for rates What"

The US Government borrowing cost will rise sometime in '11. Two things must happen- Cut back on programs or pay higher interest rates. I think as money gets scarce rates will rise.

Higher rates=Low Housing prices.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at August 18, 2009 10:24 AM

Rates will rise. To say "sometime in '11" though is really not a valid prediction. It's too far out and lots can change between now and then. If you just consider the price of oil, it'll be +60-80% YOY at these prices in December and that won't be good.

The FED is going to keep short rates very low for another 2 years.

This is why the banks that will survive, BAC, JPM, C are such strong buys here.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:32 AM

PPI today was -0.9% and expected to be -0.3% MOM. PPI was -6.8% YOY for July. and had been expected to be -5.9%.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:37 AM

people who saw prices plummeting helped (and are helping) us save thousands of dollars. these people are always here to remind us what the reality is because every day someone calls the bottom. they deserve respect.

Posted by: bklplebe at August 18, 2009 10:38 AM

If you were really in the condo market, you actually saw prices in manhattan start to soften in mid to late 2007.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:39 AM

"The FED is going to keep short rates very low for another 2 years."

The Fed does not control interest rates Jackass, the Bond market does. Remember I told you to look at the 13 WK (IRX)! Well the IRX and the Fed's Fund Rate is the same thing!!

Dave I going to take GREAT pleasure watching you get smoked!

Ask the other three people in your "Hedge Fund".

"This is why the banks that will survive, BAC, JPM, C are such strong buys here."

2 out of 3 is insolvent..

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at August 18, 2009 10:41 AM

expect the free-fall to have stopped for now but not the "malaise". that has just begun to set in. we are EASILY looking at 5-8 years of price stagnation with some periodic up's and down's qtr vs qtr and yr v yr. bottom line is that this market (brooklyn) ain't coming back any time soon and probably still has an easy 20-30% downside.

Posted by: martis at August 18, 2009 10:45 AM

IRX is 13 week T-Bills. The Fed can keep that where it pleases. They cannot howerver keep anything much beyond 1 Year where they please. You don't understand the Treasury market. It has been 1.69-1.75 since April. It ain't moving.

BTW, we are +9.6% in our L/S fund as of June 30.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 10:49 AM

Deflation means that housing prices are going down. If the price of everything else is falling why should housing prices resist? People are trying to save as cash is the king.
Inflation means that housing prices are going down. Higher interest rates means low housing prices.

There will be no stagnation yet as prices are wildly unaffordable. Houses have to reach a new clearing level where a substantial number of buyers agree to buy. One leg 30% down at least then stagnation.

Posted by: bklplebe at August 18, 2009 10:50 AM

I love how all of Team bear know such things with such certainty.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 11:01 AM

I wish this article was entitled "Looking for a bottom" instead

Posted by: dittoburg at August 18, 2009 11:04 AM

dibs - basic economics my friend. there will be no V shaped recovery ... wishful thinking. you don't just shake off the largest economic disaster since the Great Depression in a year or two or three. bloated NYC housing prices will not recover faster than the local economy which will remain F'd for a long time.

Posted by: martis at August 18, 2009 11:05 AM

Not all the time, ditto.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 11:06 AM

martis, if you could really predict things with such certainty you wouldn't be trolling on brownstoner. Please, give us your stock picks too.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 11:07 AM

> I love how all of Team bear know such things with such certainty.

Pot. Kettle. Black.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at August 18, 2009 11:09 AM

housing prices are predictable as they always revert to historical norms. Comparing housing prices with with stocks, commodities, weather, etc is misleading. What is uncertain is the size of the bubbles and the time it takes for the correction.

Posted by: bklplebe at August 18, 2009 11:44 AM

"Where are BHO, cornerbodega & Miss Muffett to refute this evidence??????"

Way up here where there's oxygen, DIBS!

"Maybe they are still trying to understand what a second derivative is."

That would be the rolling NY Case-Shiller YOY (month-to-month change which is a rate of change, aka second derivative) which absolutely will not and cannot spell bottom until it gets out of the red and into the green (change sign). It's still deep in bloodshot red. Understood.

BTW, which bottom are we talking about? That in number of sales or that in sale prices? A bottom in number of sales is the prerequisite for capitulation (a race to the bottom - last one to sell is a rotten egg!). You can't have price declines if nothing sells. One by one, sellers are realizing that it's no longer about squeezing out a profit or breaking even. It's about minimizing loss (I-beam depth) or simply doing what Morris Day told you to do in the 80's.

I will digest the data (from NAR of all people) and comment later.

(Is this all Team Bull has? My intelligence is insulted!)

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at August 18, 2009 11:47 AM

LOL...what are the historical norms for housing prices??? That's just crazy talk.

Are they 1950s, 1960s, 1995, 2003 prices??? Do you actually believe that???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 11:48 AM

Last Week's Biggest Sales^^^^^^^

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 11:53 AM

"Last Week's Biggest Sales^^^^^^^"

Where did the average price in each set peak? Where are we from the peak?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at August 18, 2009 12:03 PM

We are not near a bottom, why? Cause NY is just entering the 3 yr retrenchment the rest of the country experienced and when the rest of the country begins to recover, interest rates will rise and this will put further downward pressure on NYC RE (which requires more finanicing)

That being said please STFU with 'woo is the teacher, policeman, fireman'...since they already can afford NYC....

a 2 income teacher family of family/home buying age 32+ should be making somewhere around 175K (not including $ from summer jobs, coaching, tutoring or whatever else you can do with an approx 180 day work schedule).

Taking the standard metric of housing being 30% of your gross - they have approx $50,000 a year (or 44166 a month) for housing. Plus they should have more disposible income than most because of the amazing pension and healthcare benefits that comes with such civil service/public employee Union members get.

Posted by: fsrg at August 18, 2009 12:19 PM

fsrq, we got a teacher posting above who can attest 175k is not the typical income for 2 income teacher family. NYC doesn't pay teachers that well. Westchester, Long Island,.. yes. NYC - you teach for the love cause it aint the money. This is what 2 young teachers living in my bldg told me.

Posted by: more4less at August 18, 2009 12:33 PM

what historical norms? 1950?1960?1970?

Here is the graph SINCE 1890

http://www.investingintelligently.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/a_history_of_home_values.png

as you can see prices always revert to the historical average

Posted by: bklplebe at August 18, 2009 12:39 PM

where are you getting these figures from, fsrg? i am a teacher in nyc (for 10 years), and unless i was married to someone who made over $100,000, which in my mind, is a pretty nice salary, a combined salary of $175,000 would be impossible. i would never complain about what i make, because i think teachers are treated pretty well in nyc, in terms of compensation, but unless i bought my house 30 years ago, there would be no way i could live comfortably here with my family, once you factor in childcare. we do make a decent salary, at the end of the 30 year rainbow, but there is a lot of time in between.

Posted by: sunsetpark76 at August 18, 2009 12:46 PM

more4less - personal anecdotes are nice but if you've been a teacher for 10years (making you around the average buying/family age - then your range is approx 67K-79K, so I acknowledge that 175 (w/o any "extras") was a bit high - so I'll redo the math - combined you are at 140K; your housing allowance is 42K annual/3.5K mo, there is plenty of good housing in that price range - w/o even taping into any special programs or anything (which many teachers, civil servants can)

oh and btw the full schedule of salaries is available online along with this additional relevant note:

Along with competitive salaries, the New York City Department of Education offers ways to earn additional income through incentives, bonuses, and school positions outside of the regular contract day. Teachers in selected high need schools who raise student achievement may be eligible for a performance bonus of up to $3,000. Teachers can also earn additional income from after-school, weekend, or summer school employment, paid at a contractual rate of $41.98 per hour.

Posted by: fsrg at August 18, 2009 12:53 PM

Where is it written that brownstone prices have anything to do with teachers' salaries? Is it possible that teachers are permanently priced out of owning a brownstone in Brooklyn? Does anyone really believe that this is the metric that matters?

Posted by: cambridgeplaceholder at August 18, 2009 1:07 PM

Cops, firefighters and NYC teachers at top pay, which comes after five years for most of those civil service titles, do make over 100K. For police, fire and correction for that matter, 93K is just the base top pay. Add to that night shift differential (3K), seniority pay(5K), holiday pay(3K), uniform allowance (1K) and overtime ($$K), all well deserved in my opinion.

There are many places (Brownsville, ENY, Bensonhurst, Sheephead Bay, etc...) that with a working spouse or partner they can afford to purchase within the city limits. When it comes to cops and firefighters in particular, they prefer to live outside of the city or in Staten Island. In addition, these civil servants are eligible for Officer Next Door/Teacher Next Door programs sponsored by the federal government as well as special discounts offered by banks via their unions.

It's the school bus drivers, home health aides, library clerks and other lower middle class workers that will never be able to purchase anywhere in the city. Not being facetious here but is owning a home a right? When I grew up in Brooklyn, although my parents owned their home as did my grandparents, most people were renters. If you never purchase a home it does not mean that you are somehow a less worthy class of human being.

Posted by: Chaka at August 18, 2009 1:17 PM

DIBS: Not sure if I follow your persistent interest in the second derivative. I for one don't want to buy until the first derivative is flat and rising. Second derivative is just predictive of when that might happen.

Posted by: lechacal at August 18, 2009 1:21 PM

dibs - stock picks? seriously? you're asking me for stock picks because i think the nyc real estate mkt is going to be down and out for 3-5+ years. dude i'm not outside the range of most credible analysts. jobs and real wages are not going anywhere (up) soon while the the rates outlook doesn't bode well in any kind of general US recovery in the medium term. then bake in all the other delayed factors that have yet to really take hold here and it don't lookie too good. i'm not some kind of glenn beck doomsday bunker nut just being realistic with regard to local real estate decision making.

Posted by: martis at August 18, 2009 1:27 PM

That being said obviously prediction is important here. But it's that first derivative that tells me when to buy.

Posted by: lechacal at August 18, 2009 1:31 PM

It's the second derivative that gets you in before the buyers who rely on the first derivative. :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 2:35 PM

yeah right, buy now or priced out forever

same old but only works when loans are given to anyone with a pulse :)

Posted by: bklplebe at August 18, 2009 2:54 PM

We're probably saying the same thing. Second predicts the first. But buy when the first is flat and rising. Buying when second is rising doesn't help you if first is still below zero. Losses can be decelerating and you can still lose a lot of money.

Posted by: lechacal at August 18, 2009 2:55 PM

Posted by: lechacal at August 18, 2009 3:05 PM

Per Dibs as late as July 08 "We're not in a recession", Oct "Nyc housing immune", "Brooklyn immune", Jan 09 "Prime Brownstone immune" (even though his brownstone is in the ghetto), Feb09 "We'll get Minor cuts", Apr09 "maybe -10%", June09 "bottom is in", July09 "we'll see the peaks again in 3 yrs". This my friends is the track record of an idiot, errr I mean money manager. LOL hahhahahaha

Posted by: cornerbodega at August 18, 2009 3:16 PM

bodegaboy...we bought AXL last week!!!! That's really all that matters anyway.

I'll give you another tip....CRXX

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 3:39 PM

Who the f*uck cares dibs, I got in on BAC @5 and change so whats your point? Since you believed there was no recession as late as early fall last year I'm sure you rode equities all the way down. So you've gotten hammered on your peak ghetto speculation as well as equities. Thats your track record. Any more advice?

Posted by: cornerbodega at August 18, 2009 4:04 PM

Hammered???? ROTFLMMFAO. But you're the savvy real estate guy with all the properties.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 18, 2009 4:19 PM

FSRG and Chaka,

I realize I'm late to reply, but:

"Cops, firefighters and NYC teachers at top pay, which comes after five years for most of those civil service titles, do make over 100K."

Not teachers - it takes us 25 years to get to top pay. FSRG, your math assumes no student loans or any other obligations other than savings, AND that someone started teaching right out of college, which is not usually the case. And that bit about 180 days of work is a crock. First of all, during the school year at least half the weekend is taken up with work, in addition to many if not most evenings. First and second year teachers, forget having a life. If you think you can just waltz into a classroom and do a good job of it, you're so impossibly out of touch with reality I don't even know where to begin.

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at August 18, 2009 4:45 PM

"It's the second derivative that gets you in before the buyers who rely on the first derivative. :)"

Guys - Watching Case-Shiller YOY pass through zero is a proven method. And as you can see below, there was no rush to get in.

MONTH, READING, FROM PEAK, YOY

Sep-88 85.54 PEAK
Oct-88 85.14 -0.47%
Nov-88 84.82 -0.84%
Dec-88 84.33 -1.41%
Jan-89 84.32 -1.43%
Feb-89 83.77 -2.07%
Mar-89 83.27 -2.65%
Apr-89 82.94 -3.04%
May-89 82.97 -3.00%
Jun-89 82.95 -3.03%
Jul-89 82.67 -3.36%
Aug-89 82.63 -3.40%
Sep-89 82.38 -3.69% -3.69%
Oct-89 82.36 -3.72% -3.27%
Nov-89 81.85 -4.31% -3.50%
Dec-89 81.32 -4.93% -3.57%
Jan-90 80.89 -5.44% -4.07%
Feb-90 80.53 -5.86% -3.87%
Mar-90 79.99 -6.49% -3.94%
Apr-90 79.34 -7.25% -4.34%
May-90 79.05 -7.59% -4.72%
Jun-90 78.96 -7.69% -4.81%
Jul-90 78.78 -7.90% -4.71%
Aug-90 78.21 -8.57% -5.35%
Sep-90 77.41 -9.50% -6.03%
Oct-90 76.80 -10.22% -6.75%
Nov-90 76.14 -10.99% -6.98%
Dec-90 75.60 -11.62% -7.03%
Jan-91 74.59 -12.80% -7.79%
Feb-91 73.69 -13.85% -8.49%
Mar-91 72.87 -14.81% -8.90%
Apr-91 72.29 -15.49% -8.89% ACTUAL BOTTOM
May-91 72.63 0.47% -8.12%
Jun-91 73.50 1.67% -6.91%
Jul-91 74.39 2.90% -5.57%
Aug-91 74.90 3.61% -4.23%
Sep-91 75.06 3.83% -3.04%
Oct-91 75.01 3.76% -2.33%
Nov-91 74.84 3.53% -1.71%
Dec-91 74.74 3.39% -1.14%
Jan-92 74.59 3.18% 0.00% BOTTOM PICK (only 9 months late!)
Feb-92 74.38 2.89% 0.94%
Mar-92 74.27 2.74% 1.92%
Apr-92 74.40 2.92% 2.92%
May-92 74.69 3.32% 2.84%
Jun-92 75.14 3.94% 2.23%
Jul-92 75.47 4.40% 1.45%
Aug-92 75.79 4.84% 1.19%
Sep-92 75.74 4.77% 0.91%
Oct-92 75.48 4.41% 0.63%
Nov-92 75.38 4.27% 0.72%
Dec-92 75.35 4.23% 0.82%
Jan-93 75.54 4.50% 1.27%
Feb-93 75.42 4.33% 1.40%
Mar-93 75.32 4.19% 1.41%
Apr-93 75.34 4.22% 1.26%
May-93 75.71 4.73% 1.37%
Jun-93 76.44 5.74% 1.73%
Jul-93 76.84 6.29% 1.82%
Aug-93 76.99 6.50% 1.58%
Sep-93 76.99 6.50% 1.65%
Oct-93 76.92 6.40% 1.91%
Nov-93 76.88 6.35% 1.99%
Dec-93 76.71 6.11% 1.80%
Jan-94 76.61 5.98% 1.42%
Feb-94 76.43 5.73% 1.34%
Mar-94 76.60 5.96% 1.70%
Apr-94 76.88 6.35% 2.04%
May-94 77.55 7.28% 2.43%
Jun-94 78.20 8.18% 2.30%
Jul-94 78.78 8.98% 2.52%
Aug-94 79.08 9.39% 2.71%
Sep-94 79.08 9.39% 2.71%
Oct-94 78.87 9.10% 2.54%
Nov-94 78.50 8.59% 2.11%
Dec-94 78.36 8.40% 2.15%
Jan-95 78.28 8.29% 2.18%
Feb-95 78.29 8.30% 2.43%
Mar-95 77.95 7.83% 1.76%
Apr-95 77.77 7.58% 1.16%
May-95 78.03 7.94% 0.62%
Jun-95 78.58 8.70% 0.49%
Jul-95 78.99 9.27% 0.27%
Aug-95 79.17 9.52% 0.11%
Sep-95 79.17 9.52% 0.11%
Oct-95 79.11 9.43% 0.30%
Nov-95 78.85 9.07% 0.45%
Dec-95 78.70 8.87% 0.43%
Jan-96 78.63 8.77% 0.45%
Feb-96 78.73 8.91% 0.56%
Mar-96 78.90 9.14% 1.22%
Apr-96 78.94 9.20% 1.50%
May-96 79.36 9.78% 1.70%
Jun-96 79.52 10.00% 1.20%
Jul-96 79.97 10.62% 1.24%
Aug-96 80.31 11.09% 1.44%
Sep-96 80.45 11.29% 1.62%
Oct-96 80.35 11.15% 1.57%
Nov-96 80.02 10.69% 1.48%
Dec-96 80.03 10.71% 1.69%
Jan-97 80.08 10.78% 1.84%
Feb-97 80.08 10.78% 1.71%
Mar-97 79.97 10.62% 1.36%
Apr-97 80.03 10.71% 1.38%
May-97 80.53 11.40% 1.47%
Jun-97 81.53 12.78% 2.53%

WOW! Didn't really pick back up until '97! +10% is nothing! There was no rush to get in after the bottom pick or the actual bottom!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at August 18, 2009 5:25 PM

...you had 5 whole years to enter the market before it took off. Bottoms are long and flat.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at August 18, 2009 5:29 PM

sixyearsandcounting thank you for displaying the defensiveness and self righteous indignation that so permeates our civil service workforce....

I didnt say that teachers reach TOP pay in 5yrs - I said that after 10 yrs (which is when most professionals reach a good wage and when most people look to buy a house and have a family) teachers make enough to afford very nice housing in NYC (albeit not a Brownstone in the absolute prime area of Brooklyn or Manhattan)

Of course my math didnt include student loans - that is an expense that EVERYONE who financed their education is forced to endure - it has little relevance to the discussion and obviously if you havent paid off such a loan after 10yrs then obviously you'll be able to afford LESS housing.

No one talked about teachers coming "right out of school" - of course they cant afford to buy a nice house in NYC - how many professions or careers can any significant # of people come out of school/training and right away go and buy RE?

As to the 180 days (or whatever it actually is).....Sorry kid but teachers work less regular hours than most. In any worthwhile career especially in the '1st year or two' you have to put in extra time, work weekends and occassionaly burn the midnight oil....but many teachers can eventually (and certainly by their 10th yr) use their non-school hours to supplement their incomes through - summer employment, coaching, tutoring, and the other myriad of ways offered by the system (at $42 an hr) or outside. (this is income that is generally NOT available to workers in private companies, given the set work hours all year)

If you can put today's Chief down, and go back and look at what people wrote - no one was saying that teaching is easier or that teachers are overpayed or anything like that - it was simply an ECONOMIC discussion in which I and a few others were pointing out that it is FALSE that (many) civil servants like teachers can not afford to own a home within NYC.
Personally, I have taught a few classes to NYC kids, and I am fairly confident you couldnt pay me enough to do it as a vocation (I dont have the patience to do it) so I respect teachers immensely (even if I note how defensive and indignant many Union teachers can be) nor do I think teachers are overpaid...ALL I am saying is that Teachers (and FF and cops) are far from broke, can make a decent living and can certainly afford decent housing here in the greatest (and most expensive) city in North America.

Posted by: fsrg at August 18, 2009 5:39 PM

"Hammered???? ROTFLMMFAO. But you're the savvy real estate guy with all the properties."

Yes, getting hammered on your ghetto speculative buy and getting hammered on your equities yoy. Your known track record speaks for itself. Only somebody with issues comes on here bragging about success with your track record. Such a high roller you need to sweep the stairs for your bitter renters...

Posted by: cornerbodega at August 18, 2009 5:52 PM

You are all so ridiculous. Brooklyn Heights is not the only neighborhood in New York City. And prices are going down because that's the cyclical nature of real estate, but that's not going to change the fact that New York City is an expensive place to live.

Posted by: mopar at August 18, 2009 6:22 PM

"Bottoms are long and flat."

Try telling that to J. Lo!

Posted by: wasder at August 18, 2009 6:36 PM

Ha ha ha!

Posted by: mopar at August 18, 2009 7:07 PM

LOL wasder!

FSRG, if your alleged respect for teachers was grounded in any sense of reality, you never would have mentioned an alleged "180 day work schedule". By the way, if teachers live so comfortably in NYC, why do they keep leaving their profession and the city? Then you go on to make an irrelevant point about union workers' indignation. Come to think of it, as a teacher, I have very little respect for my union, which is one of the main obstacles to educational success in this country.

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at August 18, 2009 7:26 PM

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August 18, 2009

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