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August 10, 2009

Condo of the Day: 1 Northside Piers, #15D

Here's one casualty of the real estate bubble in Williamsburg: After buying this two-bedroom, two-bath unit in the first Northside Piers building last summer for $1,082,490, the new owner is now trying to unload it. She put it on the market ten days ago for $1,299,000 but by Friday had cut the price to $995,000. So now even if she gets ask for it, with the brokerage commission she'll be out $130,000 or so. Painful. Nice views though!
1 Northside Piers, #15D [Halstead] GMAP P*Shark

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(Shadow Inventory)

Per Crains, some stats from the glutted posterchildren of Williamsburg and FiDi:

· In addition to 10,445 unsold condos, there may be as many as 7,000 more condo units, per a spring report by market maven Jonathan Miller;
· In the Financial District, 410 condos are for sale—with up to 1,000 more lurking in the shadows;
· In Williamsburg, where there are 2,820 condo units currently for sale, 2,760 more will come online next year.

I would not buy anything in Williamsburg for ANYTHING CLOSE to the prices they are asking until those 2,750 additional units come online and prices drop by another 50%.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 12:47 PM

anyone know how does this price vs. comparable units offered by the developer or even at the Edge? Last week, there was a 3 bdrm 2 bath at the Edge asking 949k which I assume doesn't have comparable views but it was bigger and cheaper.

funny this is listed on Halstead as "Investment" in the Type field

Posted by: more4less at August 10, 2009 12:47 PM

Wine lover, where are you?

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at August 10, 2009 12:52 PM

11217, those 2,750 additional units are from that same inexplicable "report" cited in the NY Mag piece from last month. I would love to see how they arrived at that number, because frankly it doesn't make any sense unless they're counting Domino. Which isn't happening anytime soon of course, if ever.

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 12:53 PM

At the risk of sounding nasty... if someone is in the market for a MILLION DOLLAR home and can't hold onto it for more than a year or two, this person should get what's coming to them.

Yeah, that does sound nasty. But I stand by it.

Posted by: tybur6 at August 10, 2009 12:56 PM

the numbers are all BS.
just go to the actual listings.
i find 575 listings of condos for sale right now.

in the new blogoshere age, incorrect information is endlessly repeated as facts because someone wrote it. it's just unethical nonsense.

on this apartment, it's a recession, so apt prices are falling. this is not news.
this is a cool apartment, but it may trade around 700-750 per sq. foot. Maybe 650. That puts it below the widget price.

Posted by: wine lover at August 10, 2009 12:58 PM

11217, another 50%? That's fantasy land.

Posted by: Nomi at August 10, 2009 12:59 PM

Not sure how much outdoor space this place has, but the sponsor is still sellings units 22b/25b with western exposures, 1100 sqft with no outdoor space for 700K-ish.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 1:00 PM

Per Crains:

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090809/SMALLBIZ/308099970#

I'm much more apt to believe them and Jonathan Miller, than "wine lover" on Brownstoner. But that's just me.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 1:13 PM

DH, western exposure would have similar views right? if so, this seller in trouble cause out door space can't bridge the massive price diff

Posted by: more4less at August 10, 2009 1:15 PM

Hey, I'm not J. Miller - but I don't think we'll see anywhere close to that amount of condos come on the market.

The crap on the waterfront and the other well done buildings, sure. And they will languish on the market until they are priced realistically.
The rest? Rentals. And if they are priced correctly they will lease the entire building in a day.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 1:17 PM

I would think they could get $820,000 for it, for the pretty views and the terrace. At this price, with 20% down you would qualify for a conforming loan of $650,000 which many banks are comfortable with. That would put their monthlies at $4,200 ($3,700 after tax), which isn't out of line for this sort of place.

Posted by: Maly at August 10, 2009 1:19 PM

Yeah m4l - actually i rechecked, and the units i mentioned have 'northwestern' exposures - so I'm not sure if the city views were blocked by NSP2.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 1:21 PM

I'm not sure some of you realize how many apartments are sitting vacant in buildings in Williamsburg, which people THINK are already sold out. Some of those buildings along McCarren Park are 20-30% empty STILL.

And DH, if those 2800 instead become rentals, do you have any idea what sort of downward pressure there will be on rentals?

I guess that's great news for the new college grads.

In any event, I'm not sure why people are brushing aside the numbers so quickly. Everywhere I turn when I'm up there, there are buildings which look completely empty.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 1:21 PM

Yeah - I realize 11217. the rental market is going to get really interesting in N Brooklyn.

However, I think you're going to see the biggest drops in rents in the 'fringe' areas of north brooklyn (east williamsburg beyond graham, greenpoint, bushwick) as people start to move back to the areas in williamsburg they were priced out of.

also - isn't 20 bayard almost fully sold/rented? I think they only have 2 units still on the market. I can see that building out of my bedroom window and most of the lights are on during the night.

and i think most of the units in 30 bayard are in contract.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 1:36 PM

I feel bad for this seller. There must be some reason they have to do this. Why would you want to compete with all the other undsold units in the building, especially since you can buy other units directly from Toll Brothers and benefit from that "live free for one year" deal. Granted, the D units are nice (and way better than the B units mentioned above).

Meanwhile, 24D is also a resale in the building (according to SE), but very ambitious. They want more than they paid a year ago.

Posted by: cheeseburger at August 10, 2009 2:05 PM

What terrace? Nothing mentioned in the listing.

Posted by: BH76 at August 10, 2009 2:06 PM

16D is on the developer's website for 940k. You'd be an idiot to pay more than that for a lower floor.

Posted by: thwackamole1 at August 10, 2009 2:14 PM

Can I put "Ugh" in the widget?

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at August 10, 2009 2:16 PM

Can I put "FAIL" in the widget?

Posted by: DitmasSnark at August 10, 2009 2:33 PM

Quick tally of northside condos that are currently available, or in a state of completion that should put them on the market in the next year or so (I'm sure I've missed a smaller development here and there, feel free to add):

1 Northside Piers = ~50 units left
2 Northside Piers = 270 (don't think anything's in contract)
The Edge = ~475 (tough to know exactly, given limited info)
125 N10th = ~45
20 Bayard = 21
268 Wythe = 12
Warehouse 11 = ~100 (??), unclear what will happen
80 Met = ~70
Ikon = ~12
101 N5th = 7
Rialto = 11 left
129 Met = ~10 left
111 Kent = 63
14 Hope = 20
Aurora = 2
Aqua = 3
229 North 8 = ~50
90 North 5 = ~8
North 8 = 3
Sevenberry = 4
Mill Building = 3
218 N8th = 3
136 Met = 9
349 Met = 21 (??)

Total comes to 1,272; let's say 1,400 to be generous. Now that's quite a lot, but where are these 1,400 additional units coming from?

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 2:40 PM

"I feel bad for this seller."

I feel sorry for the working poor who don't have proper health care. Or just about any other segment of society than people who purchased 1 million dollar condos in the North East's version of Miami Beach.

If they couldn't afford it, shouldn't have bought. If they have to move, short of deserving pity for serious illness, maybe they should have bought somewhere with a snowball's chance in hell of renting to weather the storm.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at August 10, 2009 2:43 PM

I forgot to add...one other reason I feel NOOOOOO Pity?

"She put it on the market ten days ago for $1,299,000...."

Tells you a little about the mindset of the seller, now don't it?

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at August 10, 2009 2:44 PM

Jesus Christ! That many??

Posted by: infinitejester at August 10, 2009 2:47 PM

infinitejester, it's a ton, obviously, but compare to what Crain's is "reporting" (especially when the 2,800 is supposedly new listings, which would be on top of what's already out there, which makes up much of what I counted). It's clear there's a lot of bad info out there.

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 2:52 PM

Let me rephrase... I feel bad for anyone who must put their home on the market - especially in Williamsburg - right now. I can't think of any reason that would lead a rational person to sell at this time, other than serious illness or a similar crisis.

Posted by: cheeseburger at August 10, 2009 3:05 PM

I believe it's closer to 2800.

I think you are a broker trying to prop up the neighborhood, bjw2103.

You are counting just the most well known places. Go walk around and you'll find another 50 buildings here and there on every side street with a tons of empty units.

I think it's absurd how you don't comment on anything else, but these threads about Williamsburg saying the same thing over and over.

And I believe you do the same thing on streeteasy, if I'm not mistaken.

Wouldn't your time be better spend actually trying to sell units, than count them?

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 3:26 PM

"I believe it's closer to 2800.
I think you are a broker trying to prop up the neighborhood, bjw2103.
You are counting just the most well known places. Go walk around and you'll find another 50 buildings here and there on every side street with a tons of empty units."

First, believe what you want, but I've actually presented some facts up there. Until you come up with anything better, you're somehow corroborating 2800 just from "walking around"?

Second, this "you must be a broker" paranoid bs is hilarious. Just because I post to debunk some highly dubious "stats" I work in the industry? No, sorry. Are you a Park Slope broker trying to scare people away from Williamsburg? See how ridiculous that sounds? Enough.

Third, I don't think my list just counts "well-known places." I did specify that anyone should feel free to add if I missed anything, so please, go ahead. You really disqualify yourself from reasonable conversation when you use blatant hyperbole so often.

"I think it's absurd how you don't comment on anything else, but these threads about Williamsburg saying the same thing over and over.
And I believe you do the same thing on streeteasy, if I'm not mistaken.
Wouldn't your time be better spend actually trying to sell units, than count them?"

I think it's absurd that you care so much about where I post. I live in Williamsburg and care about the neighborhood; sorry if my comments offend you, but I'll post to threads I'm interested in. Get over yourself.

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 3:40 PM

So when can I rent one of these empty condos for really cheap? I'm ready.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 3:46 PM

Nope... Cheeseburger, I'm with MfN... easy come, easy go. If it wasn't a 2-bedroom luxury apartment that she bought for ONE MILLION DOLLARS... maybe I'd have a little twinge of sympathy.

But someone that buys this sort of place and has this sort of cash (or thought she did) should just suck it up. No sympathy.

Obviously at some point she had the means to buy this property. This isn't a workingman's property. If she didn't figure in a contingency plan, then that's her fault. Buy a place for $700,000 instead of $1,000,000... with a similar down payment... and you have a mortage payment that's HALF as much. Pay absurd amounts for real estate and your get slapped in the balls. This shouldn't be a surprise.

Posted by: tybur6 at August 10, 2009 3:48 PM

Why would a non-broker go around and count every single available unit he can find for sale in the neighborhood of Williamsburg, Brooklyn?

You are one bored mofo.

Don't buy it.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 3:53 PM

It's actually a fairly quick exercise. Adding numbers up doesn't take a lot of time (who knew?), especially when the information is easily accessible on public websites. But hey, if you're completely paranoid and want to go ad-hominem to prove whatever point it is you think you have, go nuts. Notice you still haven't provided any actual facts - solid effort.

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 3:58 PM

Seriously, I would love to see the business plans for these developments -- the rational for building so many million-dollar 1000 sg ft two- bedrooms -- or $500-600K one bedrooms. Was the assumption that Manhattan would be overtaken by off-shore investors (all those Irish carpenters!) so the middle-rung wall street crowd would flock here?

Between Williamsburg and Downtown Brooklyn (Oro, BellTel, Hanson, Forte, be@, Toren), there are far too many condos sitting empty. [And I know that you all love Toren and it isn ot completed yet.] And that doesn't even touch the new rental buildings...

Something has to give.

Posted by: BH76 at August 10, 2009 3:59 PM

"I can't think of any reason that would lead a rational person to sell at this time,"

Posted by: cheeseburger at August 10, 2009 3:05 PM

How about lack of insufficient funds to cover their liabilities? Or fear of future losses and trying to get out before the roof caves in?

Agree, no rational person would look to sell in this market. But that assumes a rational person purchased a year ago in williamsburg at 1 million bucks. SO I think we can assume that's not the case.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at August 10, 2009 4:22 PM

If they doubled the square footage on all of this crap, I think it would sell. The real question is, who wants to spend $1MM for 1200 square feet?

Re: unsold inventory, does that count all of the half-finished projects and vacant lots that have turned what used to be a solidly blue-collar neighborhood into a horrific example of urban blight? Because that's what gets me: Williamsburg was never traditionally pretty, but it used to be vital and alive. Now, aside from admittedly nice restaurants and ridiculously overpriced boutiques, it is kind of a worse neighborhood than it ever was.

Posted by: Heather at August 10, 2009 4:27 PM

"Notice you still haven't provided any actual facts - solid effort."

The "facts" are provided above in that this apartment is going to sell for less than what it was bought for.

And that's without the 1400 or 2800 additional units.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 4:41 PM

I love the asshole broker photos... only a broker would take pictures of vies like that on a rainy day.

Posted by: denton at August 10, 2009 4:44 PM

I wonder how potential resales in Belltel lofts, oro and forte would fare right now

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 4:48 PM

"The "facts" are provided above in that this apartment is going to sell for less than what it was bought for.

And that's without the 1400 or 2800 additional units."

Yeah, as you yourself put it, that has NOTHING to do with what the inventory is/will be. And of course, you are the one who started posting about shadow inventory in the first place, on a thread that really didn't address that at all. Furthermore, you're very confused as to what a fact is. I totally agree that the unit is/was overpriced, but the actual resale hasn't happened yet.

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 4:50 PM

"I totally agree that the unit is/was overpriced, but the actual resale hasn't happened yet."

So what...you think this place is going for over ask??

LOL.

Good lord, man. I don't see what your issue is. You are arguing that Williamsburg as what...3 years of unsold inventory instead of 5?

Ok, that's great. Enjoy it. I'm done.

The article I posted was from CRAINS NEW YORK. I didn't make the numbers up myself. How about reading it first before you post nonsense.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 4:53 PM

(I can't believe I'm arguing with the Northside Piers broker)

Doh.

Posted by: 11217 at August 10, 2009 4:58 PM

11217, look, I don't get into ad-hominem bs usually, if you insist on thinking I'm a broker, you should probably seek a little medical attention. I'm not - get over it.

And yes, there's quite a difference between 1400 units and 2800 - I've always been cognizant about the large amount of inventory in the neighborhood, but it never ceases to amaze me how carelessly people start repeating gross exaggerations as fact. I read the Crain's piece (thanks for assuming I didn't) and saw they quoted the same report you cited last time.

(I can't believe I'm arguing with a paranoid Sloper).

Posted by: bjw2103 at August 10, 2009 5:10 PM

The ironic thing about this is that the majority of people who really want to live in billyburg anymore are the kinds of people who could never afford those places in the first place.

It's rental hell for years to come or an absolute crushing decline in prices to attract people who see value. Otherwise why not wait to buy a condo-box in Manhattan?

Not nearly enough quality development/infrastructure to support the prices, plain and simple. It's bedford street's charming 20-something strip plus an overgrown blob of half-built high-rises that have ground to a halt.

It's just kind of a boring place to walk around after 15 minutes.

Posted by: MoneyForNothing at August 10, 2009 5:12 PM

What needs to be taken into account for first time resales such as this is the incredible cost of transfer taxes and the like on new construction. Mansion tax, NYS transfer tax, NYC transfer tax, mortgage tax on top of the other closing costs (title insurance, mortgage insurance, legal fees, document fees) - we might be looking at $60,000-70,000 or more in a case like this. One more "ouch factor", but can also be looked at as a "discount" by any buyer. Any thoughts?

Posted by: sjtmd at August 10, 2009 6:41 PM

"However, I think you're going to see the biggest drops in rents in the 'fringe' areas of north brooklyn (east williamsburg beyond graham, greenpoint, bushwick) as people start to move back to the areas in williamsburg they were priced out of."

DirtyHipster, this makes perfect logical sense, and I'm waiting for it to happen. However, so far, what I see is more new hipster types arriving in L-train Bushwick every day, and also more hipster-oriented retail along the JMZ in Bushwick every day. Maybe people genuinely want to be in Bushwick, or more likely the prices in Williamsburg just aren't cheap enough yet. They need to get down to $600 to $800 per person for impact on Bushwick.

Do you think that might happen, Dirty Hipster?

Posted by: mopar at August 10, 2009 7:59 PM

Bushwick is really fun and nice. It has a higher concentration of studios then any other area in the boroughs or city, so you know you're going to run into people you want to talk to at the coffee shop. there is a sense of freedom, community,and possibility here that you don't get anywhere else in New York. For example, most people who live here know our local reporters. It's kind of the perfect melding between small town life and city life. But it's not like Redhook, where people are basically isolating themselves and trying to pretend they live in some quaint fisherman's village. It's much more lively and has more vitality. Williamsburg is convenient and lovely, but lacks the quality of an artist's community, so I would guess there are people who would rather be in Bushwick then Williamsburg. http://bushwickpainters.blogspot.com/
It's fun here! I might move to Manhattan someday, because that's really unbeatable and ultimately the heart, but for now, I really really appreciate the chance to be in Bushwick.

Posted by: sweetheart at August 10, 2009 9:04 PM

Re: why a rational person would choose to sell right now - because it might get worse, so it could very well be best to cut your losses now.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at August 10, 2009 9:20 PM

I really don't know Mopar - as I wrote that statement, I realized I know a lot of people out in Bushwick and way up in Greenpoint that probably wouldn't move back to the Northside if it did become much more affordable. I guess we can't really predict what crazy, hungover, stoner young kids will do when faced with options (which hasn't really been the case for renters who don't make at least 100k in this city for the past 5 years).

But back to Bedford - The vast majority of that inventory is going to go rental. And I'm going to go out on a limb and say there are enough young people who will rent these if they are priced correctly. 2k for a one bedroom and 3k for a 2 bedroom would do it.

People here make a lot of convincing arguments that Williamsburg is doomed, everyone is moving to brownstone brooklyn, and can find articles to support their theories with impressive stats and pie charts - but everytime I walk around I can't help to think I'm in a different neighborhood than what's portrayed in the blog universe.

Okay - I'm done, gonna go grab a porkslap ale at K&M, which was pretty busy for a Monday when I walked by ;)

Posted by: dirty_hipster at August 10, 2009 9:53 PM

This may shock some of you but sometimes people actually sell because they either want to or just have to, regardless of Profit or loss:
A job elsewhere, a job no more, love, change of mind, health. If we all used the this "rational" nonsense, to choose when and where we live, most of us would be living in Atlanta, or worse Jersey..

Posted by: Crownlfc at August 10, 2009 10:01 PM

I think the people who can afford/are ignorant of the market enough to afford 1.2k/sq ft condos in Williamsburg are the same type of people who find time in their ostensibly busy days to anonymously engage in forum post wars on Brownstoner.

Get over yourselves, who really gives a s hit?

We are talking about some superfluous floozy who paid way too much a year ago, and is going to take a hit in a crap market on an overpriced apartment. Not really news.

Wake me up when you guys stop talking about the petty upper middle class.

Posted by: zachgee at August 10, 2009 10:21 PM

"At the risk of sounding nasty... if someone is in the market for a MILLION DOLLAR home and can't hold onto it for more than a year or two, this person should get what's coming to them."

"Yeah, that does sound nasty. But I stand by it."

So, if someone is in the market for a $150,000 home and can't hold onto it for more than a year or two, should that person "get what's coming to them" as well? Whatever that means?

The disdain by some on this site for people who have bought homes that they deem "sucker expensive" is obscene and often seems illogical. Let alone lacking in compassion.

Posted by: Nomi at August 11, 2009 12:53 AM

I wasn't expecting to feel confident about rental prices in Bushwick, but that's the unintentional side effect of this post. $2000 for a one bedroom in Williamsburg. Makes sense.

Sweetheart, thank you for the pean to Bushwick. I love it too.

Posted by: mopar at August 11, 2009 3:48 PM

« 360 Grand Avenue Goes Into Contract House of the Day: 66 Clifton Place »

August 10, 2009

Condo of the Day: 1 Northside Piers, #15D

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