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August 6, 2009

An End to the Real Estate Recession in Brooklyn?

roundtable_080609.jpgThe Brooklyn Real Estate Roundtable, hosted by the Brooklyn Historical Society, met on Tuesday to discuss, among other things, whether the economy has finished receding, as some analysts conjecture. The Brooklyn Eagle reports that David Kramer, chair of the roundtable's steering committee, said: "Perhaps we are at the bottom [of the recession], and there’s a long journey ahead. But at least there’s a journey ahead.” Even if there is a light at the end of the tunnel, however, the real estate biz is still in the tunnel. Speaker Mark Caller of the GLC Group noted, for example, that despite relative success with nForth and professed optimism about an upcoming project at 163 Washington Avenue in Clinton Hill, developing in the city nowadays is a "nightmare." Of course, bad news for developers can be good news for buyers: the original plan at nForth included only hook-ups for washers, but in the current market, GLC also provided washers and dryers with every unit. This is good news, of course, only for buyers who can afford to purchase in today's economy.
Are We At The Bottom of the Recession? [Brooklyn Eagle]




Posted by jscheff at 10:00 AM | Comments (26)
Categories: Market

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Comments

I was on Team Bear, mostly because chaos, disaster, and ruination seem like fun times to me, but I have to say after seeing my portfolio etc. Team Bull may be winning.

Posted by: infinitejester at August 6, 2009 10:32 AM

Hello? Anybody here (ere ere ere ere)?

Posted by: slopefarm at August 6, 2009 10:34 AM

Sorry, jester, you slipped in ahead of me. But them's fighting words in the post, so it is surprisingly quiet.

Posted by: slopefarm at August 6, 2009 10:36 AM

Are the people saying the recession is over the same idiots who denied for months that we were in one?

Clowns to left of me, jokers to the right...

Posted by: DitmasSnark at August 6, 2009 10:45 AM

Didn't you hear? All the sad trolls who spend every day on Brownstoner finally realized they'd been wasting their lives arguing unprovable real estate minutia with the other sad trolls. It was an unprecedented dawning of self-awareness on all sides.

Posted by: Park_loper at August 6, 2009 10:48 AM

Second derivative people. Watch those second derivatives. The market has been telling us for quite some time that we are heading out of the recession.

You're actually missing one of the strongest rallies of the past 10 years here.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at August 6, 2009 10:50 AM

You may be right, loper. But what does that say about the lurkers? What are all the sad lurkers going to read now?

Posted by: slopefarm at August 6, 2009 10:52 AM

Huh DIBS, I checked the OED for "second derivatives", there were two definitions, here's what I found:

1.) Lurkers watching trolls.

2.) Altered usernames stepping on estabished ones.

Posted by: infinitejester at August 6, 2009 10:56 AM

My portfolio has been going gangbusters the last couple months. I'm pleased. :)

And in terms of the real estate market, I think everyone assumed it would be "cheap" in NYC after the bust. Thing is...even though we are already down 20%, you barely even notice it.

I was thinking personally that I'd be able to notice if I could find a 1 bedroom I could afford on my budget in PS.

There is nothing. 1 bedrooms are still over 400K for the relatively ok ones. I've seen a few for less, but they are pretty crappy.

I think some people thought it was going to be more noticeable (and I'm sure it's not over yet) but what some don't seem to realize is that since the last major recession NYC has taken a place among the world's most sought after cities and it's just an expensive place to live now, just as the other major cities of the world are.

NYC was underpriced before 2000, in my opinion.

Posted by: 11217 at August 6, 2009 10:57 AM

Don't fear, as you can see self-knowledge comes slower to some than others... And hey, enjoy the summer while you can. Maybe even take a walk outside?

Posted by: Park_loper at August 6, 2009 10:58 AM

11217 you own already right?

Posted by: infinitejester at August 6, 2009 11:09 AM

DIBS: I definitely haven't missed the rally. Remember, I was scooping up equities when the S&P was in the 600s.

Being short real estate doesn't mean I'm short equities.

But as I've established I don't so care so much about the whole real estate thing any more.

Posted by: lechacal at August 6, 2009 11:14 AM

I do, yes...infinite...

Posted by: 11217 at August 6, 2009 11:15 AM

A broker who fraudulently posted his "fee" ad listing under "by owner no fee" on Craigslist and THEN was late to show me the apartment he had tricked me into looking at assured me that if I didn't take the dark, dank, and dingy basement apartment he was showing me that "medical students would sweep in and take it by Friday" and that I "will never find what I'm looking for".

So, I'm guessing that the the real estate recession is being stopped by flocks of medical students swooping in and I'm totally hosed and will end up living in a cardboard box down by the river.

Or possibly the broker was full of shit.

Posted by: northsloperenter at August 6, 2009 11:43 AM

northsloperenter: Are you looking for a rental in North Slope? If so what are your parameters? My apartment is on the market (I'm moving to center/south slope at the end of the month). email me at lechacal2008 at gmail dot com.

Posted by: lechacal at August 6, 2009 11:55 AM

NSR: - ugh are you kidding? care to share which agency?
I have had great luck with Ideal Properties and Warren Lewis... -am hoping to seal a deal on a condo turned rental soon enough! just waiting for the damn closing date!

Posted by: gemini10 at August 6, 2009 11:59 AM

Ideal Properties is great. I have more than a few friends who have used them and been quite pleased.

Posted by: 11217 at August 6, 2009 12:03 PM

gemini -- My impression is that he is acting as agent directly for the owner and was not an employee of a real estate company; he wanted a 1 month fee. He had the usual slimeball broker hard sell patter down pretty well, so I'm sure he does this regularly.

From the look of the place, the owner is the type who prefers to maximize rental income by cramming as many 20 something singles as possible into the space and would rather have high turnover, high occupancy, and high rents than a stable building with long term tenants.

Which is fine. People can run their buildings however they like, but I certainly don't want to live there.

Could be a nice place. Building is a brownstone on Berkeley, but the interior is in bad shape, the entryway had been converted to a bedroom, the kitchen was depressing with a hideous flickering overhead fluorescent light.

The backyard was quite large and a complete mess -- would cost a few thousand dollars to make it some place you would actually want to spend time in, assuming you could get Time Warner to do something about the 7 or 8 cable wires that are actually running across the ground...

lechacal -- thanks, will be in touch.

Posted by: northsloperenter at August 6, 2009 12:21 PM

I'll also say that Ideal Properties was a good broker experience.

Posted by: DitmasSnark at August 6, 2009 12:25 PM

Well, perhaps I will contact Ideal if I don't find anything soon.

I had kind of a bad impression of them because they spam craigslist with so many ugly photos, but sounds like they could be worth checking out.

Although my real plan is for the place I'm going to see tonight (which really *is* a no fee from an owner) to be great so I can put in an application tomorrow.

Posted by: northsloperenter at August 6, 2009 12:55 PM

Northsloperenter, these guys are all over Craigslist. 9/10 of the postings in the owner section are from them. Thing is, they're not even licensed brokers. And managing agents don't charge a one-month fee.

It could be a scam. I found an apt I liked through one, then he wanted everything in cash, no contract -- forget it. I wasn't sure I would even end up with an apt after it was all over, since there was all this hoo-ha about some painters and the apartment not being ready and so they didn't want to give me a key immediately. Crazy.

If you're going to fork over all that cash up front to a broker, use a legitimate one with a storefront in the area.

Posted by: mopar at August 6, 2009 2:16 PM

I agree, much of Brooklyn was underpriced before 2000. I'd be surprised if prices fall much farther than they already have. But I don't have any great hopes for the economy.

Posted by: mopar at August 6, 2009 2:19 PM

Mopar:

Are you referring to Ideal, because they most definitely do have storefonts...one is on Berkeley Place and 7th Avenue (absolutely gorgeous office) and then they have another office down on 4th Avenue.

They are most definitely legitimate...like I said...I've had about 5 people I know use them and LOVE them.

Posted by: 11217 at August 6, 2009 2:24 PM

so the economic recession, if you're calling that two quarters of negative GDP growth, certainly looks like it's ending. Not exactly sure what a "real estate recession" is. Feels like prices are off the lows from March/April but I have the feeling it may be a little while before you see year over year increases.

Posted by: woodys at August 6, 2009 2:26 PM

11217, I was not referring to Ideal. I was referring to Northslope's original post about the scam artist posing as a broker posing as an owner.

Posted by: mopar at August 6, 2009 2:46 PM

mopar -- it's definitely possible the guy was scamming, although my gut feeling is he works for the owner who lets him charge any fee he can as long as he gets the place rented. He's almost certainly not a licensed broker but probably does have some type of relationship with the owner (probably relative or friend of family).

As for cash transactions... I don't do those.

And as for the recession... hopefully the worst of this is over and at the macro level things will begin going up from here. I'm suspicious of S&P 1000, but I'm certainly not going to complain if it stays above 1000.

But unemployment is not going to peak for a while yet, so until the unemployment rate starts moving down, I'm not expecting much more than stabilization at best in the real estate market.

Posted by: northsloperenter at August 6, 2009 3:04 PM

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