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July 23, 2009
Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now our second data point shows an equally bearish disposition: 93 2nd Street, which generated a predicted selling price of $914,379, just closed for $1,086,312; in our defense, we said at the time that "We could see it getting pretty close to" the asking price of $1,125,000. Interesting, eh?
House of the Day: 93 2nd Street [Brownstoner]
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Comments
You know, you try and 'splain things to Team Bear as to why the prices for brooklyn townhomes will remain firmer than they expect and it just never seems to sink in. Even the factual data doesn't seem to sink in.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 9:35 AM
if you two are going to use 2 homes as youre sample pool I would love to play either one of you in Poker. Its like trying to predict the basball season based on the first week of play. Brownstoner I would say the first 10 homes will be your first hint of how it works.
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 9:40 AM
Wow - was I off! I said it would sell for 900K and usually I'm a bull - well good for the sellers - am happy for them!
Posted by: gemini10 at July 23, 2009 9:44 AM
i think someone got an F in quantitative statistics.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at July 23, 2009 9:45 AM
Not everyone is good with their $$$. The buyer is probably an easy-come-easy-go type person with his/her stack of $$$.
Posted by: more4less at July 23, 2009 9:45 AM
BO- i'll make a bet that the average of the first 10 homes comes in well over the widget price. There is a massive herd/stampede mentality on this board.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 9:47 AM
This is basically a real estate porn website and I imagine that many of those who comment are bitter renters who A- have no idea what things cost and B- can't afford these places anyway. Of course they are going to undervalue the properties listed. They want the prices to fall.
Hilariously, I would hazard to guess that those who own homes in these neighborhoods, if they bothered to log on and post, would probably over value the places. They have the most to loose from a perception of drastically falling property values.
That said, it's fun to watch the reader appraisals. I always look forward to them.
Posted by: krislaz at July 23, 2009 9:48 AM
antidope define well over?
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 9:52 AM
homeowners seem more bitter these days than renters actually. krislaz.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at July 23, 2009 9:54 AM
Maybe these people pay these "exhorbitant, outrageous, clearly stupid" prices because they have money and just want a home of their own and find ones that they like!!!!
Could it be as simple as that???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 9:54 AM
why dont you two put some $$$ where your mouth is. that's what I did with Mr Joint
Posted by: more4less at July 23, 2009 9:55 AM
Have you considered using the median instead of the mean in the appraisal widget? Given the distribution of prices in the widget for both houses, I think that'll help remove some of the noise at the low end (and in better markets, it'll remove some of the noise at the high end).
Posted by: nsanch at July 23, 2009 9:56 AM
I think it is interesting that there were 406 appraisals...
Who cast multiple ballots??
For what it's worth, places that sell quickly will be those selling close to ask. Most sellers won't accept a low ball offer right away -- they'll wait for a while to see if they can get a better one. This could skew early results.
Although I do think a bunch of people just use the widget to pop in 25% off ask or whatever without considering if the ask is reasonable or if the ask is Corcoran.
Posted by: northsloperenter at July 23, 2009 9:58 AM
Who pays $1,086,312?
Buyer: "I offer $1,086,137."
Seller: "I won't go lower than $1,086,487."
Buyer: "OK let's meet in the mdidle at $1,086,312."
Posted by: NorthHeights at July 23, 2009 9:59 AM
Its because people are entering the price they WISH properties were selling for, not what the actually think the seller can reasonably expect in the market.
Posted by: clintonhillbuyer at July 23, 2009 10:00 AM
Appraisal Rules Spark Confusion
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124830543450973871.html
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are seeking to dispel confusion over a new code of conduct for home appraisers that has sparked protests from real-estate brokers and others who charge it is further weakening the housing market.
Brownstoner never profiles the house in his neighborhood. It's always Park Slope, Cobble Hill or (Name High Priced Hood Here) but never around his own house!
The Retards time is very short and I can't wait for this fall. The Jackasses who overpaid is going to have a nasty surprise!
"There is a massive herd/stampede mentality on this board."
QOTY!!!!
The What (Clinton Hill and Bed Stuy Brownstoner!!!!)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 10:01 AM
I think Biff was about right on his quick calc that he mentioned a while ago. Take the widget price and multiply by 1.2 (20% increase from the widget price). It seems to come close to the closing price so far.
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 10:01 AM
The prompt in the widget says "your appraisal", not "guess what it sells for".
Posted by: Smudge at July 23, 2009 10:03 AM
NorthHeights, ACRIS sometimes incorporates transference fees or transference taxes into the price so maybe the house went for $1,080,000 and $6,312 were the taxes or some sort of a fee.
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 10:06 AM
Northheights: Closing adjustments. Assume the contract price was an even $1.08mm or something like that.
Others: It really doesn't matter what the buyer's motivation is or how stupid or uninformed you may think he is. This is a very recent trade. Don't fight it. This, as of the date this went into contract, was the market price. If you are of the view that prices are going down, this doesn't mean you are wrong. A prediction means you think something will happen in the future. This price isn't "wrong" - it is irrefutably the current market. I predict that market prices will continue to go down for some period of time. That doesn't mean they are already at whatever bottom I think we might reach -- clearly they are not, which a fortiori means market prices are above where I think they will be.
Posted by: lechacal at July 23, 2009 10:06 AM
widget +/- 5% you win 1x;
+5% 10% 15% I win 3x AND you have to admit you're wrong publicly.
you name the size of the bet.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 10:06 AM
Funny you should say that, What. We've got a house on Washington all teed up for today's HOTD...
Posted by: brownstoner at July 23, 2009 10:06 AM
I think most people input their prediction as to near future market values into the widget, not their assessment of current market prices. The two can be very different.
Posted by: lechacal at July 23, 2009 10:09 AM
don't know WTF happened to that post. i'll try again (maybe the symbols screw things up?)
widget +/- 5% you win 1x;
5% 10% 15% I win 3x AND you have to admit you're wrong publicly.
you name the size of the bet.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 10:09 AM
HEY WHAT....you missed this headline...
"Existing Home Sales in U.S. Rise for Third Month on Lower Borrowing Costs."
Comment??? And make it an intelligent one, please.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:11 AM
Funny you should say that, What. We've got a house on Washington all teed up for today's HOTD...
Posted by: brownstoner at July 23, 2009 10:06 AM
What PWNED again. it's getting easier and easier. ROTFLMMFAO
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:12 AM
ignore those truncated posts. Less that 5% over widget price you win. Greater than 5% I win. Loser makes public admission. In your case, that you are not smarter than the market. In my case, that the brownstoner bears are right. No caveats.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 10:13 AM
I love going back to the original thread and seeing just how ridiculous the lowball comments are:
"A very very modest house on a not so great block of carroll gardens for over a million dollars? I do not think it is likely. You can get a pretty nice condo for 1.1 million these days. This house is a little worker's shack really.
Posted by: sam at March 31, 2009 1:32 PM"
"I think it will go around $900K - the block is eh
Posted by: gemini10 at March 31, 2009 1:38 PM"
"FWIW, I would bet $799,000 is the best they'll do for such a small place. At that price, people can look at it as the condo alternative it's meant to be.
Posted by: Maly at March 31, 2009 1:44 PM"
"800-875 tops.
Posted by: Xander Crews at March 31, 2009 1:59 PM"
"$850k - street is quiet and lovely - these streets btw hoyt and bond (where I live) are just heaven for children because they are empty with no cars and they can play outside without you really having to watch them. However, house is tiny (although there is probably lots of FAR and wouldn't cost too much to add a floor) But 1.125 is crazy.
Posted by: gkw at March 31, 2009 2:05 PM"
"kind of a weird hood but i like the interior shots. 700,000
Posted by: brickoven at March 31, 2009 2:26 PM"
"I appraised it at 799,000.
The PS is nearby facing the little carroll gardens park. It' an OK school I believe.
Posted by: sam at March 31, 2009 4:13 PM"
**HILARIOUS!** At least now I know who *not* to take seriously around here.
For the record, CGGirl nailed it:
"My guess is that will sell slightly below asking, maybe 1.1
Posted by: cggirl at March 31, 2009 2:02 PM"
Posted by: bivouac at July 23, 2009 10:13 AM
I was just wondering if we'd eventually get feedback on these appraisals vs. actual selling price. Will be interesting to watch!
Posted by: belleville at July 23, 2009 10:15 AM
"Funny you should say that, What. We've got a house on Washington all teed up for today's HOTD..."
Funny you started to post those houses after I tore into your ass about them Brownstoner!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 10:16 AM
antidope thinks that Team bear is smarter than the market!!!!
Please, drop the "anti" part.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:16 AM
antidope you said well over to me that would mean 10 percent or more. how about this i will make you a bet that the next 10 so that would not include these 2 will come in within 5 percent of the widget. 5 - 10 percent is nobody wins and 10 percent over you win? I lose i change my handle from Brickoven to loser until you give me permission to change it back. You lose you change youre handle to loser until I give you permission to change it back? 5 to 10 percent its a draw?
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 10:16 AM
Clearly the idiots who bought these places are so rich that they don't know how much money they have, just like all rich people. They are so stupid and rich that they have no idea what they bought, what the market is, or what it is really worth according to the good faith geniuses on this site. The buyers probably didn't look at any other properties, don't know Brooklyn, can't count or add, or are 'outliers' of some kind. Maybe they're French. Because clearly any indicator that doesn't point straight down is always wrong for some reason.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 10:16 AM
That ostentatious place sure is deserving of mansion tax.
Posted by: dittoburg at July 23, 2009 10:18 AM
I'm going to repeat this, just because it is right:
It really doesn't matter what the buyer's motivation is or how stupid or uninformed you may think he is. This is a very recent trade. Don't fight it. This, as of the date this went into contract, was the market price. If you are of the view that prices are going down, this doesn't mean you are wrong. A prediction means you think something will happen in the future. This price isn't "wrong" - it is irrefutably the current market price. I predict that market prices will continue to go down for some period of time. That doesn't mean they are already at whatever bottom I think we might reach -- clearly they are not, which a fortiori means market prices are above where I think they will be.
Posted by: lechacal at July 23, 2009 10:19 AM
Dave, he actually thinks Market is smarter than Team Bear. He is wagering Brickoven about that.
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 10:19 AM
Thanks, Kens, I'll have to go back and reread the posts. i didn't even see brickovens post.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:21 AM
That's one smart jackal. Listen to him and you'll learn something.
Posted by: the chicken at July 23, 2009 10:23 AM
Ok, seeing it. Apologies, antidope.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:23 AM
MR you hit the nail on the head with your comment, lol. As Adam Incognito pointed out in our conversation in Draft Barn "If these people are buying a million plus house, they are not idiots and must of done SOMETHING right in their lives".
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 10:23 AM
>i think someone got an F in quantitative statistics.<
Rob please explain this. A sample size of 406 is more than enough responses to make this claim valid.
Granted the entire process is very unscientific but I am curious as to your statistical take on this.
Posted by: WrathOfGates at July 23, 2009 10:25 AM
Sorry, HOTDs are written at least 24 hours in advance...
Posted by: brownstoner at July 23, 2009 10:25 AM
Bivouac, you forgot Miss Muffet: $750,000!
Posted by: NorthHeights at July 23, 2009 10:27 AM
I will give you 10% over on your silly appraisals on the next ten houses. That one I can take to the bank.
Oh heck I'll take your bet anyway.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 10:28 AM
Wrath you def got an F. The sample you need to look at is the actual house sales so you are looking at a sample of 2!
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 10:28 AM
Thanks Kensingtonian, I really just miss ghettoazzpnkbtch.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 10:28 AM
man, all you two wager is "Loser" ID - that's not a lot of conviction.
Posted by: more4less at July 23, 2009 10:32 AM
If these people are buying a million plus house, they are not idiots and must of done SOMETHING right in their lives".
What kills me is no one is looking at the distortions of house valuations! Most knuckleheads are not concerned with the math but with the feeling of "Heard Mentality".
Look at the monthly nuts of those place and in most times it's cheaper to rent than to "own".
2.5 million dollar house have a carrying cost 15,000 + per month and the sad this is the income only covers 50% of that, the jackass "Landdebter" must puke rest up.
BTW Now that Team Retards is cheering this nonsense on when the market crashes I don't want to hear anybody whining, OK!
So have fun Retards your time is very very short..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 10:33 AM
brickoven continues to ignore the actuals maintaining that the ship will hit the iceberg even though it is passing it day in and day out with actual sales.
When you're trying to navigate through uncharted waters, you don't use the rear view mirror.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:34 AM
wrath i honestly have no answer to you. hahaha.
on the other hand, it's a fugly tiny house with just three small windows on a boring block in suburbia. blah
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at July 23, 2009 10:36 AM
dave its a little early in the morning to be drinking no?
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 10:37 AM
No brick - the post is about Brownstoner claiming that he was correct in stating that the owner would get close their asking price. He then goes on to show the lower widget price. In this case he is correct and his claim is more than valid given the number of responses. If he made a bold statement such as "based on this house the predicted widget price will be off X% on futures sales", well then the sample size would be 2.
Don't look at the big picture here. He is not predicting anything about the future accuracy of the widget.
Posted by: WrathOfGates at July 23, 2009 10:39 AM
wrath you are the dumbest person on this thread now. Go take a stat class before you even try to talk to me about this again.
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 10:43 AM
Why is it that so many of you can't understand that many people just want to own a home for the long term and have enough money to pay for what they want when they find it??? People have money, maybe you don't but many people do; and they spend it the way they want to.
Serious buyers aren't going to wait for an additional 10% loff that may or may not happen. Unless you've owned your own home and have done so for many years, i suspect that many of you non-homeowners just don't understand that.
It's not always weather it makes economic sense in the short term, its a lifestyle decision that you pay for.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 10:44 AM
Brick-
I am sorry if you had difficulty understanding my reply.
By your response I assume you have passed a Stat 101 class.
Instead of calling names please give us your expert take on this. Please stick to the details of the post and not your assumptions.
Posted by: WrathOfGates at July 23, 2009 10:49 AM
no it's a "lifestyle decision" that causes everyone else who just wants to live comfortably "pay for". rich idiots plopping down two million dollars for a crappy house like this one make it harder for everyone else.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at July 23, 2009 10:51 AM
"So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget" Brownstoner said
so we are looking at the predictive powers of the the widget. The widget tries to predict what a house is worth. 2 homes that the widget has been used for have sold. The sample size is 2
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 10:54 AM
I love the logic of some of the team bear extremists. If a price is low, that is proof of the market heading down fast. If a price is unexpectedly high, it's just proof the market still has a way to go. Team bear has set up a perfectly insulated argument that is internally consistent and impervious to facts. Right or wrong, they always know what to say.
No one's arguing statistical significance, brick. But the data point may be interesting enough to watch to see if it holds.
If I ever need to sell, I will take some comfort in the fact that the rantings and ravings on this site don't actually seem to drag down the price. If you want to buy a HOTD, you offer the widget price at your peril.
Posted by: slopefarm at July 23, 2009 10:56 AM
"For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street...which sold for...a shade less than the asking price...but...more than widget voters predicted..."
It's not a seller's market. It's not a buyer's market. It's a sucker's market.
One more notch. The bottom must be in.
***Bid 3X peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 11:01 AM
I'll admit that this house went for more than I expected.
I still think they overpaid, and the value will decline over the next few years.
But what do I know?
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 23, 2009 11:03 AM
I agree with Dibs
we can all argue about the housing market and what we might think a particular house is worth on a given street, but he's right - there are MANY buyers out there who have money and are buying with emotion and their needs in hand. I don't call that stupid at all. Sure, we would all love a discount on things we buy, but if the item is worth it emotionally, we will buy it. The buyers still got a deal as they didn't pay asking - so there you go!
Posted by: gemini10 at July 23, 2009 11:03 AM
Since I'm not savvy about finances or real estate, when I was looking I only considered places w/in my price range & then made decisions based on how much I liked the house & what kind of condition it was in.
I imagine that other buyers do a similar thing.
It took 3 years but I've been happy here for 25.
Posted by: Arkady at July 23, 2009 11:04 AM
Smudge: the prompt in the widget says "your appraisal", not "guess what it sells for". True.
Plus if you took all the bids on any property, only one would usually be the highest - the sale price. All the other bids will be below the sale price. The sale price is the highest bid so I'm not sure comparing it to this widget this is any kind of an indicator at all of the real estate market. Sure ain't Case Schiller.
Posted by: Brooklynnative at July 23, 2009 11:04 AM
DIBS is right. I sold my house in '06, and I'm ready to own my own home again. I've made offers on a couple of properties I like (outbid on one, awaiting counter on the other). I don't consider myself a member of Team Bull or Team Bear. Like lechacal, I believe market prices will continue to go down for some time. Nonetheless, when I find a property I really like, at a price that works for me, I'm ready to pull the trigger now rather than wait for the possibility that the price of THAT property MAY go down another 10%. Sales like 2nd Street are about the wants and needs of the buyer and seller involved in THAT transaction, NOT about what the overall market is doing.
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 11:05 AM
Is it a market bottom, yes or no? If no, then these people overpaid. They may need housing now; they may have fallen in love with their particular pile; they may have money to burn. But those are separate questions. Unless you're willing to call the bottom here, then they overpaid, period.
Who thought this would all play out in four or five quarters? This is a fun parlor game, but really, do you think this is the end of economic hardship, service cuts, and credit complications? I know one good swallow makes your month, Dave, but one swallow doth not a summer make.
Posted by: Whuh at July 23, 2009 11:06 AM
It's not a seller's market. It's not a buyer's market. It's a sucker's market.
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 11:01 AM
This is about the stupidest thing you've said.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:06 AM
Actually, I believe he is opening with a disclaimer about the "predictive powers" of the widgets (as in it is too early draw any conclusions) and does not make any claims about them following that comment. So in fact he and everybody else is agreeing with you on this point.
What he does go on to talk about is the two specific cases he does have data for - which you obviously have an issue with.
I doubt you will ever be able to grasp this concept so I will leave it at that. Maybe an adult ed stat class is in order?
Posted by: WrathOfGates at July 23, 2009 11:07 AM
Anyway, isn't the widget a bit skewed because of the person who always goes to the high end?
Posted by: Arkady at July 23, 2009 11:09 AM
"This is about the stupidest thing you've said."
Beats DOING something stupid like overpaying in Bed Stuy.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 11:10 AM
Dave, you're boxed into an illogical corner with your idea about markets. If you're saying a market is a perfect discounting mechanism for future cash flows --or whatever Larry Kudlow said this morning on monkey TV --then you have to explain why the Naz hit 5000 and why the Dow dipped to 6 and change...Why can't these transactions, in an illiquid market to boot, represent a sucker's idea of future price appreciation?
Posted by: Whuh at July 23, 2009 11:13 AM
"I think Biff was about right on his quick calc that he mentioned a while ago. Take the widget price and multiply by 1.2 (20% increase from the widget price). It seems to come close to the closing price so far."
Kens, thanks for remembering Biff's Law (widget plus 20% = actual selling price). Let's see how I fared:
First place:
Widget = $1,890,000
Widget * 1.20 = $2,268,000
Selling Price = $2,250,000
First place:
Widget = $914,379
Widget * 1.20 = $1,097,255
Selling Price = $1,086,312
Posted by: Biff Champion at July 23, 2009 11:14 AM
This entire exchange is pointless. Why are people arguing about this price? It is what it is. Like it or not it's market price. It's like we're standing around in the middle of the night arguing about whether it's really the middle of the day. A less pointless discussion would be where prices are heading in the future.
Posted by: lechacal at July 23, 2009 11:15 AM
Money isn't everything, BHO. I got a beautiful place and I love it. I got a LTV ratio of 46% and my downpayment wasn't in the stock market.
I've got 1,600+ sq. ft. to myself with a deck & a yard and two bedrooms and two baths for about $1,400 a month with the tenant on the garden level, $2,000 in real estate taxes. Tell me where you, as an obviously bitter renter, can find a place like that???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:16 AM
Hey 'tards the writing is on the wall..
UPS Forecasts Profit Less Than Estimates; Sales Fall (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaEmdyRqRbNE
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- United Parcel Service Inc., the world’s largest package-delivery company, forecast lower profit than analysts projected and said second-quarter earnings fell 49 percent as the recession cuts business demand.
49%!!!!??? Green Shoots is Crack!
"U.S. package volumes slid for a sixth straight quarter as the recession caused businesses to curb orders amid the highest unemployment rate in 26 years. The company said shipments will remain “significantly below” last year. UPS is considered an economic bellwether because its deliveries span from clothing to auto parts to financial documents."
Well well well! Here is is dumbasses from UPS the largest shipper in the world!
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 11:16 AM
I agree with Arkady too: "I only considered places w/in my price range & then made decisions based on how much I liked the house & what kind of condition it was in."
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 11:16 AM
Oops, seems I didn't fare so well in my post! Second one should have said "Second place:"
Posted by: Biff Champion at July 23, 2009 11:17 AM
More company's are beating the estimates than are not, What.
Can you understand that is what is important, not how much they are off from the prior year. If you can't understand that you really need to just STFU.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:21 AM
"More company's are beating the estimates than are not, What."
Set low estimates and "Beat" them Dave?
"If you can't understand that you really need to just STFU."
The data from the UPS Dust-up means people are buying less items, which means less things are being shipped, which means people are being laid off, which means the unable to help underwater landdebters with the mortgage, which means the values go down.
See how it works Dave?
"Can you understand that is what is important, not how much they are off from the prior year. "
Case closed..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 11:27 AM
Fair enough, but seems obvious that the first datapoints on realized price vs widget price will be the most bullish ones.
Posted by: etson at July 23, 2009 11:28 AM
Divorcing the widget from sale price is the nuttiest piece of logic to float around here in a while. I'm no rabid free marketeer, but a market, whether for houses, stocks, or shoelaces, is about buyers and sellers meeting at a price. It is pointless to try to relate the widget to what failed bidders offered -- they didn't offer the market price because the market price is what the house sold for. And it is pointless to distinguish the word appraisal. An appraisal is an assessment of the house's worth -- i.e., what the market will pay for it. Home sales, not the widget, are the real data points, folks. If you think the sales price of this house is too high, come forward with some comps to prove it. But the widget is no substitute for actual sales as an assessment of the market. It's just a bunch of guessing from folks with no skin in the game.
Posted by: slopefarm at July 23, 2009 11:33 AM
I love the people saying that buyers are stupid for spending large sums of money on homes.
Do you feel the same way about spending $1.50 on a can of Pespi which costs 6 cents to make?? How about that shirt from the Gap which retails for $49 and is made for $3.25?
You do realize that people overpay for EVERYTHING, right? In MUCH higher percentages than in real estate. Get a freakin' clue.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 11:34 AM
See how it works Dave?
"Can you understand that is what is important, not how much they are off from the prior year. "
Case closed..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 11:27 AM
AND YET, THE DOW PUSHES THROUGH 9,000.
THAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE REAL WORLD AND YOUR VIEW OF "HOW IT WORKS."
It's really sad that you remain so dense because otherwise you could be making a lot of money here and you could buy that Clinton Hill house that you otherwise will never be able to afford because the Asshats moved in and drove the prices up.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:34 AM
And he knocks it out to deep left field...
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 23, 2009 11:36 AM
Also, BHO, every sale that does not fit your criteria of half off peak comps further sets up a comp that people will use in future purchases
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:36 AM
What Krislaz said at 9:48.
Posted by: jack slade at July 23, 2009 11:46 AM
I say this house is worthless. That someone bought it makes them an idiot.
I inherited my house from my mommy so I have no idea how to actually buy one using my own money.
I worked in real estate once. Awaye Realty. Have you heard of them? I am an expert on real estate even though I no longer have access to MLS.
I see that the DOW is down $.01. See, the world is coming to an end.
I hope no one notices that I have stopped my countdown clock on the end of the world. This will allow me to move the goal posts when I am wrong again about the end of the world.
(I'm still here MR)
Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at July 23, 2009 11:46 AM
"It's really sad that you remain so dense because otherwise you could be making a lot of money here and you could buy that Clinton Hill house that you otherwise will never be able to afford because the Asshats moved in and drove the prices up."
Ok Dave I'll bite. Remember a few they had 107% financing (Including closing cost), one day out of Bankruptcy, 500 Fico scores and fog a mirror Mortgages?! Well Assdip those sweet days a long gone!
Today you need Cash, Credit and Income to become a Home Slave! If you was paying ATTENTION to the Fannie and Freddie new appraisal guidelines then you know it's just about over!
I ask you Dave to put your own Brownstone on the market and let's see if you clear 1.1 million after transaction fee's and taxes.
If you live in 11216 or 11238 you are F*******ED! Noticed this weekend all the gunplay around the "Hood" the good ole days of the '80s is making a roaring comeback!
Heroin use among the Retards is Skyrocketing (Williamsburg Punks anyone?)!
See me in November around the start of the 09-10 season and let's see of you "Feeling good" about you "Investment" Dave
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 11:49 AM
Not sure if this has been mentioned already or not, but anyone who was expecting the widget to accurately reflect the final sales prices was not really thinking this through. It is a completely one sided metric. The whole wisdom of crowds thing requires people to miss on both sides. In todays market nobody is guessing that things are going to go for over the asking price so you have a fundemental problem in that every incorrect guess is going to pull the widget down more than a correct guess pulls it up.
If there was a house asking $4 million that was going to really go for $2, then you might have soemthing, but for anything that is asking within 20% of reality, the widget will never be close really.
Posted by: Ledbury at July 23, 2009 11:50 AM
I hope no one notices that I have stopped my countdown clock on the end of the world. This will allow me to move the goal posts when I am wrong again about the end of the world.
Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at July 23, 2009 11:46 AM
Are you saying that the October 08 End Of The World Party was premature???? I don't get it, the What is always right about everything. I lust after him.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:51 AM
What, I don't have anywhere near $1.1MM invested in my ghetto property. I THOUGHT YOU WERE A BROKER AND KNEW EVERYTHING ABOUT BED STUY????
You apparently don't know diddly about Bed Stuy prices.
You have again PWNED yourself.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:54 AM
ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy ghettoazzpnkbtch= daveinbedstuy
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 11:56 AM
wisdom of crowds = oxymoron
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 23, 2009 11:57 AM
I agree that I am a ghetto ass punk biatch, but I am not ghettoazzpnkbtch.
I think you are one too, What.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:58 AM
I am also in awe of your cut and paste and copy skills. This is another reason why I lust after you.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 11:59 AM
"If you live in 11216 or 11238 you are F*******ED! Noticed this weekend all the gunplay around the "Hood" the good ole days of the '80s is making a roaring comeback!"
**
The official NYC murder stats for 2009 continue to be considerably lower than last year, according to NYPD. So far when compared with 2008, the murder rate is nearly 22 percent lower this year, a fairly large increase and, if it continues, this year could break the record for lowest number of murders ever recorded in NYC. The record low was set in 2007 with 496 murders recorder.
The question is: why has it dropped so? Better policing? The economy is making even killers depressed? President Obama?
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 12:01 PM
i don't know the people who bought this house, but i doubt very much that they are among the very rich sitting around with piles of cash to throw willy-nilly. they may indeed have had an inheritance, or made some money from a prior sale or had a dp built up which they saw doing nothing (or worse) while invested in the market. but my bet is that beyond that, they've got a nice double-income situation with either no kids or small ones, and they saw that a nicely renovated house in a decent neighborhood at a condo price (sustainable on one professional income, if necessary) is a good and pretty rare find even in this market. the market over the next couple of years may make it seem they overpaid, but it is my guess that further declines won't be so quick or so incredible that they won't be able to enjoy the home in the meanwhile.
Posted by: i disagree at July 23, 2009 12:04 PM
I hate it when people call me out on my sh!t so I accuse them of being someone else.
I had the chance to talk about a house in 11233 yesterday in the HOTD, but I actually had nothing to say. Even when some Jersey loser was being a racist. I gave him a pass! I am losing my real estate cred and losing my mind.
(I am not Dave, tWhat)
The maker of pampers diapers lost money in the quarter. That must mean no babies are being born and no one is having sex. I am a financial wizzard.
Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at July 23, 2009 12:05 PM
11217, don't confuse the What with the facts.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 12:06 PM
"The official NYC murder stats for 2009 continue to be considerably lower than last year, according to NYPD."
11217-- 7 people got shot at block parties this week end! Four of them died! Last weekend was the most violent this year and I don't need "stats" to tell me. I know from the street level dumbass! The Helicopters was in full force, did you hear them?
ghettoazzpnkbtch you made yourself look like a ass yesterday! Maybe I would have some respect for you if you had an idea what you stood for but you are my Doppelganger, that's your claim to fame!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 12:13 PM
See, I told you, the What doesn't need facts, he's operating from the street level. What a dumbass.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 12:15 PM
4 people dying (although horrible) does not make up for a 22% reduction in murders over last year.
We are still on track for a record low number of murders for 2009.
You can twist things all you want, but everyone here knows you are a child.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 12:16 PM
"Money isn't everything, BHO."
Exaaaaaaaactly. Remove whatever shrapnel you can and move on. But don't try to call people stupid. Lead by example.
"Tell me where you, as an obviously bitter renter, can find a place like that???"
Court steps.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 12:18 PM
"4 people dying (although horrible) does not make up for a 22% reduction in murders over last year."
11217 We'll see about that.
"We are still on track for a record low number of murders for 2009."
Yeah but when you become a statistic the numbers and knowledge still add up!
Dave I'm going to say this-- One day maybe we can discuss our differences face to face without the barriers of the internet.....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 12:23 PM
I put everyone on mute then respond to their posts.
If I didn't post, would anyone care about the What? I keep him in the mix. He is this b!tch's b!tch. I own him and she needs me more than I need her.
I complain about racism on this site, but I run when someone actually engages in it. Perhaps I am too busy hanfing out with people with guns. My criminal past follows me everywhere.
Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at July 23, 2009 12:23 PM
"Also, BHO, every sale that does not fit your criteria of half off peak comps further sets up a comp that people will use in future purchases"
No shit. But I'm "throwing the ball where the receiver will be, not where he is right now". Gotta pass through -20% to get to -50%. Comps are trending down. It's sad I have to explain this to you like a 3-year-old. You're not a numbers guy (Kellogg is a management school, not a finance one). You're a salesman and a gambler (and The House is closing in on you).
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 12:26 PM
ghettoazzpnkbtch = brownstoner
Posted by: NorthHeights at July 23, 2009 12:31 PM
Hey BHO remember this one thing-- When the massive crash happen this fall the retards are going to whine (Not Dutty) about the schadenfreude!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 12:37 PM
ghettoazzpnkbtch = Aquaman
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 12:38 PM
ghettoazzpnkbtch = NEMO
Oh yeah, ROTW. Commercial RE is gonna devour FDIC. Single file line everybody! No pushing, no shoving.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at July 23, 2009 12:42 PM
A million bucks plus for a teeny little house. Now that's MY kind of Depression!
Posted by: Brenda from Flatbush at July 23, 2009 12:47 PM
I guess the What is West Indian, huh?
Posted by: gemini10 at July 23, 2009 12:52 PM
"Commercial RE is gonna devour FDIC."
Did hear what Bernanke said about that?!
Bernanke Says Commercial Property May Pose Risk for Economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a2mAhkgbWDXc
Bernanke, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today, urged lenders to modify “problem” mortgages to avert defaults. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the panel, told Bernanke that “some have suggested” the commercial market “may even dwarf the residential mortgage problems” in the U.S.
Notice the empty Circuit City space at Atlantic Center! There are several empty spaces there and no one is in a rush to occupy them.
Hey Brownstoner where is that house on Washington you was going to post liar!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 12:57 PM
Another intelligent discussion.
Posted by: East New York at July 23, 2009 1:05 PM
11217, welcome back. "you" were back last time but think you left the venom at BA. Glad to see you're spitting fire again.
Posted by: more4less at July 23, 2009 1:07 PM
Seriously I cant belive you 2 spazzed out with your alter egos in front of the World Wide Web.
keep banging
Posted by: jack slade at July 23, 2009 1:11 PM
LOL, ENY.
Posted by: Arkady at July 23, 2009 1:12 PM
Man I want to go grab lunch but this is tooo good to miss.
M4L, you must be lovin' this. Probably forgot what ESPN is by now :o).
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 1:13 PM
Kens, OT action is great too.
Posted by: more4less at July 23, 2009 1:16 PM
"Its because people are entering the price they WISH properties were selling for, not what the actually think the seller can reasonably expect in the market.
Posted by: clintonhillbuyer at July 23, 2009 10:00 AM"
Pretty much this and the comment that the price is the price and not something else are pretty much all you can say about this. Everything else is just silly arguing about What's (and everyone else's) ego.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 1:40 PM
I have no idea what other people's investments in real estate are, but I will take a stab at it. I will be wrong, but that hasn't stopped me before.
I will post something and then respond to myself. I am so smart. No one will ever guess I have two screen names.
Now where did I put that aveno? I have to please my wife somehow since I will never be able to afford the house she has been expecting me to buy her.
I am a scrub.
Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at July 23, 2009 1:45 PM
Circuit City was bankrupt pre-Lehamn
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 1:49 PM
Did you all hear that Best Buy is taking over the Circuit City space in Union Square and that NORDSTROM RACK is making their Manhattan debut in the former Virgin Megastore space right next door.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 1:53 PM
Yes, I did, 11217.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 1:59 PM
i read about that 11217, and the third part of that space is in the works for somethign else, not named yet. union square blows major chunks tho
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at July 23, 2009 1:59 PM
Nord Rack sucks. Try Gilt Groupe.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 1:59 PM
I'm on Gilt Groupe. But I do like Nordstrom Rack also. They sometimes have some decent shoes for men.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 2:03 PM
Circuit City was bankrupt pre-Lehamn
Man.. Dave what's wrong with you seriously?
Can you admit to some small truths or is that hard? Damn Damn Damn Dave! Now I understand you will go down swinging.
Circuit City went Bankrupt this past February.
"Everything else is just silly arguing about What's (and everyone else's) ego."
Mopar do you find your "Dream House" yet in Ocean Hill?
"Did you all hear that Best Buy is taking over the Circuit City space in Union Square "
11217 I said Atlantic Center you know, the future home of the "Brooklyn Nets".
Why do I bother with these people. Greed, Denial and Stupidity rule Brownstoner.
The What (Damn)
Someday this delusion is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at July 23, 2009 2:05 PM
Nord Rack wanted a locale in Chelsea because my office building had/has open space and couldn't come to price per square foot agreement so they jetted.
Circuit City has had problems for a long long time. They just couldn't get their shit together.
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 2:05 PM
Here's another widget HOTD price point, from PLG. also a sale under a million. 29 Maple St sold this week for $830k. Ask was $899k, widget was $727k.
http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/04/house_of_the_da_667.php
Miss Muffet wrote "I'd say 700 tops, and quite possibly less."
wherever the market is headed, clearly the widget skews bearish.
Posted by: Frederick Law Homestead at July 23, 2009 2:08 PM
What, do you shop at Nord rack?? Do you wear Allen Edmonds shoes??? I lust after you. There's a sale going on at diesel. i want tot see you in some tight hipster clothes!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 2:10 PM
Interesting Frederick Law. Not at all surprised that Miss Muffet was so off on her prediction on this and the other house. She doesn't respond to real data anyway...she goes by hunches.
Would love to here her excuses...I mean response to how she could say 700K tops and it sells for 830K. Just a fluke, I'm sure. She'll come up with something. Always does.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 2:18 PM
At the risk of stating the obvious, people have continued buying homes in America the last 3 years.
Most believe they caught the market bottom or close to it.
And nearly every one of them thus far has been proven wrong...
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 2:19 PM
Trying to predict the price of a house by some photos is absurd.
Commenting on how near or far from the mark individuals are in their soothsaying is worse.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 2:21 PM
I somehow recall guessing 875-900k on that PLG house. The ask must not have been 899k cause it would be very strange for me to guess that close to ask. I'm assuming this is that corner house, nice details, garage.
Posted by: more4less at July 23, 2009 2:25 PM
Not when people come on here and exclaim time and time again how right they are about where the market is (even when data is shown to the contrary).
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 2:26 PM
The What in Diesel? Ha ha ha I don't think so.
Steve and I went in there together one time and he asked for something in his size, and the sales clerk looked at both of us and said "Are you shopping for your son?"
We have not gone back.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 2:26 PM
(THis was several years ago so of course we both looked 22.)
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 2:26 PM
MoneyForNothing, what person could have possibly bought a house sometime in the last three years and thought they'd caught the bottom? What I see is a lot of people sitting out, convinced they've seen the top.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 2:27 PM
At the risk of stating the obvious, people have continued buying homes in America the last 3 years.
Most believe they caught the market bottom or close to it.
And nearly every one of them thus far has been proven wrong...
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 2:19 PM
And I'll bet the vast majority of them could care less that it has declined in value as it's their home and they plan on living there for many years and they no longer have to put up with a landlord's rules and they can remodel as they please and, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, many will likely make capital gains on these places in the next 5 years or so.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 2:28 PM
Another point about 29 Maple. It traded for 595k in 2004.
Hasn't MM and others said that we are back to 2004 pricing??
830K doesn't sound like 595K to me.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 2:28 PM
More facts What:
Panama Canal CEO Says Auto Shipping Showing ‘Signs of Recovery
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Panama Canal Authority has begun to see “signs of recovery” in shipping traffic, including from freighters transporting cars, said Alberto Aleman, the authority’s chief executive officer.
Aleman said he expects traffic in the fiscal year ending in September to total about 295 million tons, up from a previous range he had given of about 290 million to 295 million tons.
Traffic in the 95-year-old canal totaled 310 million tons in 2008. Revenue this year will be “similar” to last year’s record $2 billion, Aleman said.
“Amid the crisis, amid the recession, this is good,”
Aleman, who’s run the canal since 1996, said in a telephone interview from Panama City. Car shipments have “declined as was to be expected given the problems that we’ve seen in the automobile industry worldwide but we’ve seen signs of recovery in this segment.”
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 2:29 PM
11217:
2 widget appraisals hardly qualifies as enough data to show us where the market is.
The real market data is that the ask/bid spread is quite far apart in the NY market. It's illiquid, harder to finance, and it's hard to see where any economic tailwinds are that are going to propel us forward in any meaningful way.
Risk is heavily on the downside. Doesn't make it a guarantee, but if you're into risk management, seems fiscally wise to wait.
Assuming a large % of people sense this, speaks to a downward trend in real estate.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 2:34 PM
Good reading at Urbandigs today...
http://www.urbandigs.com/
Manhattan inventory has dropped below 10K (from a high of over 11K a couple months ago) and there were 2,120 SIGNED CONTRACTS in Manhattan over the last 8 weeks.
Granted we are going into a slower season and it seems that a lot of people who were looking to buy, did...but considering some of the bears on here make claims to this being worse than the Great Depression, over 2000 signed contracts in 2 months is pretty good. Especially since we're talking about Manhattan only.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 2:42 PM
DIBS;
I'm not trying to qualify or pigeonhole those people. I'm willing to buy myself (for reasonable value) and accept near term loss of equity.
My point is, we're trying to have an absurd discussion about a trend in the market based on 2 widget appraisals.
Nearly all sales in NY specifically over the last year thus far has "predicted" the exact opposite of the reality.
So the idea that this one place going for above what a bunch of blog trollers like us guessed it would as some sort of predictive indicator of the NYC real estate market is just silly.
That people are willing to puff up their chests and sling darts over this sort of stuff is even more so.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 2:42 PM
MFN,
The point isn't whether the widget is telling us anything about where the market is heading -- it isn't. The question at hand -- for those of you that forgot or got sidetracked -- is whether the collective wisdom of Brownstoner widgeteers is worth anything. We now have 3 data points that say the widget skews well to the bear side of the market at the given point in time. We have 0 data points showing the widget close to or above sale price. Statistical significance, not yet. A pattern sufficient to base a hypothesis upon, surely.
I say the widget is uncanny. Take the widget mean, multiply by 1.15 and there's your opening bid. Be prepared to go up to 1.25, but don't go over.
Houses are not like stocks. Most people aren't flippers, they are looking to buy to live in them. You don't sell just to avoid bigger future losses or to take profits at a small uptick. You hold them and live in them. So it is pointless to say "well, in six months it will be worth less" because, if it sold now, it won't be on the market in 6 months (unless it is 237 14th Street). The only intellectually honest way to understand the widget is as an aggergation of estimates of current market value, i.e., what it will sell for.
Posted by: slopefarm at July 23, 2009 2:51 PM
Money For nothing...you need to relax and get some Chicks For free. You sound like a relatively sane poster here compared to the lot of them. I think you are taking things too seriously here. Within every one of these real estate threads, the adamant viewpoints of the Team Bull members contain a certain amount of "tongue in cheek" while the Team bear members seem to actually believe every bit of their dire predictions without ever pointing to any support for prices to be down 50-70% or "back to 1994" levels.
That said, we Team Bear, or Team Reasonable, seem tocbe able to continuously surprise the Team bear predictions on pricin and, have been doing so for quite some time.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 2:51 PM
"Thanks for the data point FLH.
BO- that makes it 3-0." Antidope said
Hey dope do you not know how to read?
"antidope you said well over to me that would mean 10 percent or more. how about this i will make you a bet that the next 10 so that would not include these 2 will come in within 5 percent of the widget. 5 - 10 percent is nobody wins and 10 percent over you win? I lose i change my handle from Brickoven to loser until you give me permission to change it back. You lose you change youre handle to loser until I give you permission to change it back? 5 to 10 percent its a draw?" I said
you should learn how to read before you jump to bigger things dope
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 2:59 PM
Don't get the statistical significance of 2 widget predictions. Out of a total of how many? Etc etc. Silly thread, Bstoner's just baiting...
Posted by: bridges at July 23, 2009 3:00 PM
Me and The What are going to start offering OTC derivatives based on house of the day prices.... Gonna make Goldman's AIG payout look like chump change.
Posted by: lalaland at July 23, 2009 3:01 PM
if you two are going to use 2 homes as youre sample pool I would love to play either one of you in Poker. Its like trying to predict the basball season based on the first week of play. Brownstoner I would say the first 10 homes will be your first hint of how it works.
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 9:40 AM
You proposed, I accepted. I even gave you 10% leeway. Now you want 2 freebies. You're a weasel as I suspected all along. But I'll even give you that one too.
We agree it's 1-0 then?
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 3:04 PM
DIBS.
That comment made me so mad I almost ripped my computer monitor off of my desk and hurled it across the room.
I am so effin' pissed off now!!!!!!!!!!!! ;)
That said, I think team bear posters are forecasting about 3-4 years worth of price declines like they are going to happen this month. So team bull will continue to surprise.
The real thing to look at is the number of delistings. Illiquid market.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 3:05 PM
MFN, I've noticed an increase in delistings lately. Many properties I've been following have lingered on the market for a long time, with no reduction in asking prices, and have been delisted seemingly out of the blue.
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 3:12 PM
antidope dont take it out on others that you dont know how to read what you agree on. Be a big boy now, and read stuff when you are entering into a contract. Are you sure you understand all the wording there? That frosted Flakes decoder you have been using aint gonna work here in the real world. Get it?
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 3:13 PM
CarrollGardens, what do you think the delistings mean?
I have noticed a little uptick/surge of buying here in Brooklyn at low prices in the last few months, spurred by low or rising interest rates, but I don't expect it to last.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 3:15 PM
Just got in from a long business trip. Wish I had gotten in on this conversation from the beginning. So classic. Biff was spot on about the 1.20 ratio. And What, the herd mentality you mentioned as QOTY was actually intended to be a commentary on the herd mentality of the bear side of the argument. But anyway, this is neither here nor there in the larger picture. IT is but one sale, but a trend could emerge from further widget-predicted sales. The larger issue for the recovery of the market is the sheer number of properties featured as HOTD or COTD that haven't sold at all. Until we start to see these moving more regularly it won't be too much to cheer about. But still, I am happy for these sellers and hope this indicates a stabilization in housing prices, though I remain cautious and skeptical.
Nice to see everyone by the way, feels like forever since I have been able to post.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2009 3:16 PM
Well I think the takeaway from this entire thread is that the "Average Reader Appraisal" is absurd. I'd venture that it doesn't even accurately reflect what posters really think. There is so much posturing going on here that a lot of posters (most? all?) will appraise a property way above or below their actual belief in order to counter an appraisal from the other "team". In fact I'd go so far as to say that the "20% more than widget price" valuator, which seems fairly accurate, really means that we all pretty much know what a place will sell for, but the bears have 20% more posting power here than the bulls.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 3:22 PM
CGed:
Many that get reductions also get delisted after painful reality that all the cuts just won't make the property move.
Others sit with no reduction forever--sellers just fishing to see if they can get a bite.
I'm tracking upwards of 100 houses in 5 nabes, about 35 of which I've seen. Most are cut and/or delisted. I'd put sales in the 5% range of my sample, and those are usually really standout properties that are not absurdly priced. A bit more statistically valid than 2 widget appraisals.
Reality is, there's no reason to buy quickly unless you've got enough spare cash after a massive down payment and just don't give a f*ck.
As SlopeFarm said, houses are not like stocks. He's right, but not just for the reason he stated——you have little chance of "missing" the bottom and getting quickly squeezed on the upside by any significant price appreciation.
If you are a buyer (like me) with time to spare and reasonable rent, you are in the driver's seat, plain and simple.
The downside risk far outweighs the upside risk, plain and simple.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 3:24 PM
"Reality is, there's no reason to buy quickly unless you've got enough spare cash after a massive down payment and just don't give a f*ck."
or unless you need a place to live
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 3:31 PM
"The downside risk far outweighs the upside risk, plain and simple."
And some people don't think about buying a home as a risk at all, they think about it as a roof over their heads and a place to raise a family.
People like you who seem to equate them to stock purchases is how we get into trouble.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 3:35 PM
Or, unless you want a home of your own to remodel as you please and not want to be a tenant of a landlord in a place that you probably have outgrown.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 3:37 PM
You are so right MR.
It's impossible to live somewhere by renting. And worse off, it's ALWAYS the financially worse decision.
Take me for example.
12 long years frittering away my hard earned cash in a 50%-below market value, rent-stabilized place in Soho, and absolutely nowhere to live.
Whatever will I do with the $200,000 in saved rent I've socked away the last dozen years?
I know, TMI, and I hate to gloat, but let's just say their are alternatives to overpaying.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 3:37 PM
"If you are a buyer (like me) with time to spare and reasonable rent, you are in the driver's seat, plain and simple."
Very true MFN, despite any data points on the widget. A patient buyer with reasonable rent still has the upper hand.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2009 3:41 PM
11217 buying a house carries a lot more then buying stocks.
Posted by: brickoven at July 23, 2009 3:41 PM
Whatever will I do with the $200,000 in saved rent I've socked away the last dozen years?
I know, TMI, and I hate to gloat, but let's just say their are alternatives to overpaying.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 3:37 PM
If you could have mustered up just 1/10th of that 12 years ago (1997), $20,000, you probably could have bought a place that would have been around $200,000 and now is probably worth $600-800,000 depending upon location. Don't argue with me on this one. I bought my Manhattan condo for $165,000 in 1997.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 3:42 PM
Let the sniping begin.
"People like you who seem to equate them to stock purchases is how we get into trouble."
Ah, no?
How about a 1+ million dollar purchase is the biggest financial decision you're likely to make in your life 11217?
NOT considering the risk factor in your purchase price for said asset is EXACTLY how we got into the trouble we're in. Because as you said, most people are not FLIPPERS.
But we can agree, MOST people purchasing homes they can;t afford is how we got into this mess?
Man, that was a really, really stupid comment.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 3:44 PM
DIBS:
No argument here. Thanks for educating me that since 1997, real estate in NY has appreciated significantly. I hadn't noticed.
But 12 years ago I couldn't have mustered up 1/10th of that, so what's your point?
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 3:50 PM
Despite the problems in the housing market across the U.S., MOST people DID NOT purchase a home that they cannot afford. And, that percentage who purchased but cannot afford is even lower in NYC.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 3:53 PM
mopar - For whatever it's worth, I asked my broker about a few of the delistings that had been her firm's, and she told me that the sellers weren't getting the prices they wanted, and so decided to take the apartments off the market for a year or so. I've noticed that a few delisted apartments I was following were then relisted as rentals. Like you, I've also noticed a lot of deals being done in recent months, in many cases at prices substantially below the original asking prices. This seems to be more the case with co-ops and condos than with houses though.
MFN, as I said earlier, I'm ready to pull the trigger when I find the house or apartment I love at a price that works for me. I'm not waiting for a so-called market "bottom".
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 3:54 PM
> If you could have mustered up just 1/10th of that 12 years ago (1997)...
Time to fire up that time machine.
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 23, 2009 3:55 PM
CGar...I'll gladly take you ona tour of bed Stuy. What are you looking for??? i think you mentioned it last week but I can't remember. Senility goes hand-in-hand with delusional thinking that I'll ever come out whole in the ghetto.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 3:59 PM
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 3:53 PM
"MOST people DID NOT purchase a home that they cannot afford"
No, just a statistically significant enough percentage to throw a our over-leveredged derivatives market into turmoil, sending 3 of the worlds largest investment banks into bankruptcy, requiring the rest of our major financial institutions to receive in the nabe of 1 trillion dollars in taxpayer-backed government guarantees to make themselves solvent, and ruining our long-term prospects for a healthy economy.
But agreed, most home buyers are good people, and that is worth a lot.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 4:06 PM
DitmasSnark, some of us live in the past. That's what I like about my antique furniture. It reminds me of the days when I could have bought my brownstone for $350.00 new in 1889.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 4:06 PM
Hey BO. Take a whiff of this sale.
4/18/09 HOTD 489 16th St
Widget: 1,243,011
Actual: 1,500,000 (+20%)
Ask: 1,595,000 (-6%)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/489-16-street-brooklyn
Notice a pattern yet? 4 nothing.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 4:12 PM
MoneyForNothing you should never move. Seriously why would you unless you have grown to hate SOHO (which I personally do, but you probably don't). If you've got a sweet pad that's permanently cheap you should just stay. Don't buy in Brooklyn. Go buy property outside the city as a vacation home or buy an investment property when you feel the market is right.
Lots of people have to move for various reasons, frequently in Brooklyn it's because of an expanding family. For those people it's actually a great time to buy. Sure they could rent somewhere, try to time the market to save 5-10-15%, but that means moving twice (which can be hard for kids) and since interest rates could be going up it might not make a big difference on your monthly payment anyway. Plus for people renting today (as opposed to already living in a rent stabilized place) the cost of living in a crappy rental really might not look that great.
What I don't get is that with so many people like yourself on this board and around NYC that are waiting to buy...when exactly is the bottom going to drop out? If prices continue to tick down slowly more people are going to decide it's the right time, which will keep the market from tanking. There are so many potential buyers waiting to get into the market I just don't see it taking a huge dive.
Sorry if you were trying to pick a fight, I'm not one of those types on this board, just a civilian trying to talk real estate.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 4:12 PM
Thanks, DIBS. LOL re: senility! I would love to take you up on your offer since I know nothing about Bed Stuy. Truth be told, I'm torn about what I want. Part of me wants another house; I agree with all the virtues you cite about a house, from the space to the detail to the garden to no board approval for anything; the question for me is whether I want to deal with tenants and repairs again. On the flip side (no pun intended ;) ), though I suspect you'll think me crazy, there's something to be said about the right turn-key condo - e.g., take a look at this one, I'm curious to know what you think: http://corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&ListingID=1527336&ohDat=#).
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 4:16 PM
I do agree with MR about buying something outside NYC. It depends on how old you are and how far in the future you can think regarding "retirement" and what that is likely to look like. I won't be retiring in NYC, I'm sure of that, so I have already thought through the issue of taxation in other states, climate, lifestyle, proximity of retirement home to nearest watering hole, etc, etc, etc.
If you are young, these things may not be a high priority but if you're in a jobe where you will have a pension or can realistically plan for your retirement then this thinking should be paramount at times like these when real estate bargains can be had. FL & NV are especially cheap, I just don't want to live in places like that.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 4:17 PM
P.S. DIBS - funny you mention the furniture since most of mine is suited for a Brownstone parlor, not a modern condo!
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 4:19 PM
CGar...that's a very nice place with very low CCs (tax abatement). I see its already under contract. :(
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 4:27 PM
"Lots of people have to move for various reasons, frequently in Brooklyn it's because of an expanding family. For those people it's actually a great time to buy. Sure they could rent somewhere, try to time the market to save 5-10-15%, but that means moving twice (which can be hard for kids) and since interest rates could be going up it might not make a big difference on your monthly payment anyway. Plus for people renting today (as opposed to already living in a rent stabilized place) the cost of living in a crappy rental really might not look that great."
This is so true.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 4:29 PM
This thread proves that folks on Brownstoner are so heavily emotionally invested in their position as to the direction (and magnitude of that direction) of the Brooklyn RE market that they will fight over the meaning of any morsel of data that they think bears (no pun intended) on the question. It's tiring -- like the Sunday morning political talk shows --- News item: Obama sneezes. From the left "he's human" from the right "he's lying to us about his health."
The widget says nothing about what anyone thinks about the direction of the market. Appraisal is about where you think the market for a particular house is now. Get that through your skulls, folks. The sole issue of the original post of this thread is the accuracy of the widget. You can be 20% wrong about the current market value and still right about market direction and vice versa.
On that question, given that we now have 4 data points, all of which put the widget 15-25% below sale price, are we getting closer to a pattern yet? Anyone have a counterexample yet?
Posted by: slopefarm at July 23, 2009 4:30 PM
DIBS, unfortunately, I know all too well about the contract. I'll tell you the story about this condo during our house tour or when I meet you in person, whichever comes first.
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 4:32 PM
slopefarm - ROFL on your Obama analogy! So true, both as to Obama and the real estate market!
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 4:34 PM
MR,
Anyone who's seen me here knows I'm a total non-fight picker.
I think that trash is pure silliness. Hell, DIBS called me "reasonable," and for this forum, that's saying alot. I'm probably one of the most ardent supporters of talking fundamentals, not jr real-estate appraising and how tacky people's decor is.
I can't stand SOHO. Have watched the nabe become a tourist trap loaded with eurotrash and russian oligarchs. But $1,575 rent a month for a large 1 BR cures a lot of ills.
I have an expanding family—I'm one of these people you're mentioning. I have an 18-month old daughter, in an apartment I'm outgrowing and a very large 6-figure pile of cash waiting to go.
But the 5-10% savings you're capping out at seems optimistic when I'm seeing homes get cut for 10% and still not move. By your argument, I should have bought 3 months ago, overpaid by about 10-15% already, and probably have another 10-20% downside to go.
And if rates go off, general estimate says that for every 1% in mortgage rate adjustment, lop 3% off the home value (I believe that's the #). So increased rates mean lower prices and a more advantageous position for the buyer: Lower down payment and deductibility for the increased interest payment, which is spread over 30 years, and further depreciated by the time/value cost of money.
But even if you're right, and we only have 10% to go, $150,000 off a 1.5 million brownstone (and that's cheap) is hardly something to shrug off.
Put that 150K into a diversified portfolio and watch it compound 7% per annum for 30 years and I say the moving twice was well worth it.
I want a home here for my family. But again, there are so many reasons to wait if you can. If you can't, you can't—buy that home and enjoy it for everything it's worth. But don;t dare overreach for home you can;t afford.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 4:36 PM
CGar I think you can get way more bang for your buck in BedStuy than the condo link that you posted.
You should definitely take up Dave on his offer to see his "ghetto money manager crib", especially his deck and garden. Something tells me your opinion may change very quickly.
I was very happy that I actually got to walk the streets a little bit (courtesy of DIBS, DH and M4L) last weekend (a little piece in Crown Heights and a little piece in BedStuy). Prior to that, I only drove through the area.
Having said that, I can respect the architecture of both BS and CH but I think I prefer Kensington, Windsor Terrace, Ditmas Park area more. It's a personal choice and I grew up in the area so I am a bit prejudiced towards that.
Posted by: Kensingtonian at July 23, 2009 4:42 PM
"This thread proves that folks on Brownstoner are so heavily emotionally invested in their position as to the direction (and magnitude of that direction) of the Brooklyn RE market that they will fight over the meaning of any morsel of data that they think bears (no pun intended) on the question. It's tiring -- like the Sunday morning political talk shows --- News item: Obama sneezes. From the left "he's human" from the right "he's lying to us about his health."
Couldn't agree more.
Posted by: East New York at July 23, 2009 4:43 PM
Yes we have a pattern and it starting to prove that what we have here is called a herd of bears.
not much different than the prior herd of bulls, just a little more grating in tone.
there are a couple more April HOTDs in contract so stay tuned folks.
Posted by: antidope at July 23, 2009 4:44 PM
I wouldn't bank on 7%. It's likely to be more like 5% and for the past 15 years has been less than that for the S&P500.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 4:44 PM
Kinda like you and the Yankees, ENY. :)
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 4:44 PM
Kens, no question you're right, and I'm going to take DIBS up on his offer. I saw on the OT the other day that you guys had a great outing last weekend. Funny thing is, I didn't even want to look at that condo, but my broker insisted I go, and then, to my shock, I loved it. That's why I say I'm torn about what I want. If I stay in the B'Heights-C'Hill-C'Gardens rectangle, and go the apartment route, for better and worse that condo is my yardstick. But, I get the allure of a house. As for the other neighborhoods you mention, I have to dig up a link to a Victorian I fell for in Ditmas Park.
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 4:54 PM
MFN-
Sorry if I misinterpreted your tone.
I def see your dilemma.
Obviously we all here can't know and disagree with where the market is heading. If you think it's got more than 15% down to go then I guess you stay put. And I know that $150k is huge money. But the $1.5mil mortgage at today's 5% means $8k-ish per month. The 1.35mil monthly at a still very low 6% is...$8k-ish. Keep in mind that real estate is not the only asset that can go up or down. Where is your large downpayment? Stocks? Not so large anymore. Savings account? Getting eaten up every day. If you are getting 7% for it per annum then that is even more valuable than your sweet SOHO pad and you are double blessed.
You are in the catbird seat and like I said earlier, waiting is pretty safe for you.
When I was in the same position I figured I'd do better financially if I waited, but would lose my sanity, warp my child, and wreck my marriage. But then again the rentals I was seeing for the price were horrible at the time.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 4:54 PM
Hey, it's really nice around here when the fighting people take their shrill back-and-forth to another thread.
CarrollGardened - take a look at Windsor Terrace. I live there and find the plus/minus equation well well worth it.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 4:59 PM
DIBS:
I completely agree, future investment returns will be punk.
Though, I did say diversified, not US Equities
Allocate proper percentages of High-Yield and Investment Grade Bond funds, tilt a Total US index with additional dividend-yielding equities on the small and large-cap side, go 8-10% TIPS, add some commodities, including a nice position in Gold and REITS, and last but not least, get yourself a nice tilt towards emerging markets, which will boost growth and also currently offer about a 3.5% dividend.
Total return might get you 7% per year. Set up each asset in the appropriate tax-handled account and I think you jsut might get there.
Either way, 150K saved returning even 5% per year seems like a hell of a lot better use for the money than waiting for your home equity to build back up once you've overpaid (since we're all agreeing it's a foregone conclusion if you buy now, that's what you're doing for the lifestyle benefit trade offs).
Cash is King.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 5:02 PM
Given that life is short, I don't understand the concept of "hating" where you live.
For me, I wouldn't pay any price to live in a neighborhood I hate. And soho is pretty high up on that list.
But to each his/her own. I suppose some aren't so sensitive to their surroundings.
Posted by: 11217 at July 23, 2009 5:03 PM
Thanks, MR. I like Windsor Terrace. Funny, you're right about the rentals. Mine is fine (but only fine, and overpriced), and as DIBS points out, I've grown tired of it, and I'm ready to be a homeowner again.
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 5:06 PM
I hate what SOHO has become. That's a recent development. Used to be a great nabe. Now it's a tourist trap.
That, along with the fact that my wife and I have a little girl are why I am looking to move.
But again, paying far below market rent buys a lot of patience. Saving something like $4,000 a month off the cost of the home I envision my family living in eventually seems worth ignoring the tourist parade while I minimize my downside risk.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 5:14 PM
Lots of EM high quality telecoms out there yielding 4-7%.
CHT, TLK, PHI
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 5:16 PM
I know about waiting, MFN. When I bought in Bed Stuy I knew that I'd be waiting for good restaurants. They are starting to appear.
The most ironic thing about leaving Manhattan is that we just moved our offices and they are now 1 1/2 blocks from where I lived in Manhattan!!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at July 23, 2009 5:22 PM
If I was slightly annoyed at my rental but not desperate right now I think I'd look a lot, try to find a great bargain, bide my time for another 6-12 months and see what happens. Worst case is the market flattens and you pay the same price next summer for what you could be living in and enjoying today. If I hated my rental or was losing my lease then I'd probably buy.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 5:25 PM
11217 u r correct that murders r down in NYC from last year.but most discussions on here r about BK.and in Brooklyn murders r up from last year.so the What was right.crime is on the rise.the biggest uptick in homicides is in Brooklyn south
Posted by: buckfast at July 23, 2009 5:29 PM
MFN-
Tough call. That's a lot of money. Add the $4k with the savings that you expect from the market...
We felt like we had to move out of our smallish one bedroom when our son got about to walking age. Plus we were being kicked out. I knew the market was going to go down, but I guess I made a lifestyle choice. I mean what is money for anyway?
I think if I were in your position I'd probably end up staying "just another month" for a year or so. Until my wife started threatening my life.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 5:32 PM
MR, that's just the game plan I'm following. I personally believe the market will go down further, but I'm not going to wait if/when I find the right property. On the other hand, if I don't find something for another year, while prices may have stopped falling, I'm not worried about them climbing up again within my time frame. I may have to contend with rising interest rates, but I'm not terribly worried about that yet either. Meanwhile, I enjoy good real estate porn, and I like exploring neighborhoods I'd never considered before.
Posted by: CarrollGardened at July 23, 2009 5:37 PM
> That's what I like about my antique furniture.
Same here. Though my chosen time capsule is buried somewhere between Mad Men and The Brady Bunch.
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 23, 2009 5:49 PM
Well done on a reasonable discussion about renting vs owning. Like MR I was in the position of outgrowing my apt and decided to buy regardless of a falling market, partly because the house I bought had already fallen several hundred thousand under its original ask and partly because with a second baby on the way I just needed more space. But there are many different ways to approach this situation and they are all valid. I just get sick of folks on both sides of the argument who can't seem to understand that there are no universally valid reasons to buy or not. Its all relative to one's own circumstances.
Posted by: wasder at July 23, 2009 5:55 PM
wasder, you are entirely too reasonable. Cease and desist!
Posted by: DitmasSnark at July 23, 2009 6:34 PM
Most sane people have gone home, but on my phone. Thought I'd add one thing people don't mention.
By waiting in a likely overpriced market, you don't just hopefully save money. You get to buy more house. My sitation is that most 2 family places are a touch too pricey for me. And I'm in a pretty good position financially. So I suspect they are too high for most buyers.
I'll likely spend the same amt. I have a ceiling i will go to. Waiting makes it far more likelyy my dream home falls to my range, and long term, my quality of life is that much better.
Worst case, market goes sideways and I buy that smaller place, but at least tried for the dream.
Posted by: MoneyForNothing at July 23, 2009 7:12 PM
Personally, I am not interested in a 2 family. The rent generally won't cover the share of the mortgage and I don't want the headache.
Posted by: MR at July 23, 2009 8:21 PM
Not sure anyone's still reading - I had a very busy day at work and am trying to digest this huge thread.
A few quick points:
11217 - I did not say we are AT 2004 pricing but that I am betting we will get at least to that point, if not lower.
Yesterday's biggest sales included 2 primo Park Slope houses that sold for way under ask. The one on 4th St, which sold for just above $2.2, was HOTD last summer at $3mil and many, including 11217, thought that $3mil was a bargain at the time, and that it would have gone for significantly more had market not started to soften. The 8th Street house chopped $600K from ask to sell within several months - that 4 story house wound up selling for $1.8mil - which suggests that a primo 3 story house in gorgeous condition could credibly go for 1.3-1.4 (and thus getting closer to the 1million end of the spectrum than the 2 million end, which bulls used to say was the minmum price of entry for a brownstone in prime Bklyn). Mind you, these prices are based on peak spring selling season, so I think it's also highly conceivable that they could fall significantly more in the next year or so.
There is a consistent pattern in the Open House picks 6ML thread that shows that properties linger, cut prices gradually, or sell for significantly less than initial ask.
So yes, there is the anomoly in data in any market (so some houses will do better than expected, even in a bear market, just as some will do worse than expected, even in a bull market).
But I for one think the direction of the market in NYC is clear and it has further down to go.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at July 23, 2009 9:39 PM
Hi. Still reading.
Posted by: mopar at July 23, 2009 11:43 PM
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