« Weekday Events Open Thread »
June 8, 2009
Manhattan's Bounce Detectable in Brooklyn?

The cover story in this weekend's real estate section of the Times is about how the Manhattan market is showing signs of recovery. Brokers say that in the past couple months deals have been picking up for most kinds of properties (pricey new condos are the big exception). Still, prices are off about 30 percent from the same period last year, and there were 55 percent fewer closings recorded in public records at the end of May of this year as compared to the same quarter last year. Appraiser Jonathan Miller isn't seeing anywhere near a full recovery yet: "'You did see an upturn in activity this time of year,' he said, but 'it was not a robust spring.' Mr. Miller said that the spring did not 'undo the damage that occurred last fall' during the banking crisis, and that prices still appeared to be slipping, though at a slower pace than earlier in the year." Still, brokers say there have been bidding wars in recent weeks and that would-be buyers who sat on "the sidelines" in the past few years are now looking to buy property in Manhattan based on the idea that they can now get more bang for their buck. The question for us, unaddressed in the article: Is the Brooklyn market showing any of the same tentative signs of rebounding?
Honk if You Think It's Over [NY Times]
Photo by Amazin' Jane.
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.brownstoner.com/mte/mt-tb.cgi/10068
Comments
[Opening the door to see where the Team Bear members are]
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 8, 2009 9:24 AM
From the same paper but one day later so can we assume that the NYT changed it's mind again?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/business/economy/07view.html?em
Posted by: the chicken at June 8, 2009 9:29 AM
c'mon -this is a non-story just a fluff piece backed up by no data just broker quotes.
I am no 'team bear' but this is another one of NYTimes b.s.
pieces. ( and so is that trustafarian w'burg one).
Just go out and get quotes for some story reporter thought of. Facts and stats don't matter. Just rely on human interest and stereotypes.
Posted by: Petebklyn at June 8, 2009 9:33 AM
Come on, Pete. you're no fun.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 8, 2009 9:35 AM
Interests rates up around .75 in the last two weeks. Wonder how negatively that effects things if it stays at this level or goes higher.
Posted by: dosteov at June 8, 2009 9:35 AM
anyone catch Bernanke on 60 minutes last night?
I felt this NY Times piece was fluffy, however most people don't understand fluff and will beleive it and might spark people to "pull the trigger" instead of trying to wait it out.
Posted by: gemini10 at June 8, 2009 9:40 AM
Chicken, thanks for posting that article, though I don't necessarily think that the info is counter to what is in the one Brownstoner posted, which merely talks about increased deal-making, not rising prices. The article you posted is exactly the kind of analysis that makes me be on Team Reasonable. Most reasonable people value their lives and the details there-in more than the absolute price of their house and for this reason, all of the theories about when to buy and sell to "maximize" market return are just not valid for most people. When to sell or buy is almost always connected to some real world event, positive or negative, and not a market driven decision. For the very lucky few (Miss Muffett or BHO say) finances, timing and opportunity all line up (they hope) to provide the perfect storm of value. But most are not in that position, nor care to upturn their lives to get in that position.
Posted by: wasder at June 8, 2009 9:43 AM
Wasder, I totally agree with you. Sign me up for Team Reasonable.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at June 8, 2009 10:01 AM
People keep mentioning to me how next year is when a lot of the effects are going to start showing - this year's budgets were already allocated and the shrinkage of the markets will pay forward into 2010.
Posted by: infinitejester at June 8, 2009 10:03 AM
I slogged through that whole Times article looking for anything of substance at all and was totally disappointed.
wasder I believe your logic is relevant to my parents' experience, not mine...
back in the day you didn't have prices randomly tripling in ten years, and then wiping people out going the other direction. If prices just rise 2 or 3 % a year, it's easy: you're always better off than renting in the long run, and as long as you stay at least a few years you can ride out any bumps. Buying a house used to be more like reaching puberty -- different times for different people, but it's gonna happen and you'll end up fine.
different times now. You could STILL buy and get your whole equity wiped out, and then be bum-rushed out of the NYC job market. we're not talking about maximizing return so much as avoiding avoidable financial ruin.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at June 8, 2009 10:04 AM
Typical of Dibs to be a bull on "getting worse more slowly" news. What an idiot.
Posted by: cornerbodega at June 8, 2009 10:22 AM
"we're not talking about maximizing return so much as avoiding avoidable financial ruin."
Good points Joe and I totally see what you mean about our parents generation rather than ours. But many of the same factors still apply. Yes, its more extreme in NYC these days with huge shifts up and down but still many of the same real world scenarios still apply (or at least they did for me).
Posted by: wasder at June 8, 2009 10:24 AM
Ever hear of first and second derivatives, cornerbodega? No, I thought not.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 8, 2009 10:25 AM
pssst DIBS, wanna buy some Gamma?
Posted by: the chicken at June 8, 2009 10:27 AM
NYTimes is on Team Bullsh*t. Until prices are more reasonable (relative to income & savings) and job security restored - aint going to believe this crap of things are good,....
Posted by: more4less at June 8, 2009 10:29 AM
"Honk if You Think It's Over"
[sound of crickets chirping]
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 8, 2009 10:38 AM
there had to be 20 broker quotes in that article. really, what a disappointment for anyone who has tried to find real information, and from the Times too.
I got more value out of the Duane Reade coupons.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at June 8, 2009 10:51 AM
"there had to be 20 broker quotes in that article. really, what a disappointment for anyone who has tried to find real information, and from the Times too.
I got more value out of the Duane Reade coupons."
Brokers AND dibs!
Posted by: cornerbodega at June 8, 2009 10:56 AM
You never answered the question about derivatives, bodegaboy.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 8, 2009 10:59 AM
Lol dibs, your opening post furthers your credentials as the alpha retard (nickname courtesy of What;) ) on this board. Keep going off on tangents you idiot!
Posted by: cornerbodega at June 8, 2009 11:04 AM
cornerbodega, here's a hint, below: A) the last 12 months of year-on-year NYC housing price changes by case-shiller. B) the differences between the respective changes. You are supposed to answer whether prices are falling faster than before, slower than before, by the same rate, or rising in any of those three ways.
A
-8.0%
-7.7%
-7.0%
-7.0%
-6.6%
-7.1%
-7.7%
-8.6%
-9.2%
-9.6%
-10.2%
-11.8%
B
-0.3%
0.3%
-0.5%
-0.1%
-0.9%
-1.0%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.2%
-1.7%
-2.7%
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at June 8, 2009 11:13 AM
oh, right -- then you're supposed to go: "stick this in your inflection point, biotch"
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at June 8, 2009 11:15 AM
Forget it, joe. cornerbodega is here to maintain the far left tail of the intelligence bell curve.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 8, 2009 11:18 AM
I don't think you understand what "tangent" means either. This is a really sad commentary on our education system, or it could just be your inability to learn.
BTW, that was "going off on a tangent."
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 8, 2009 11:22 AM
every generation thinks they have it worse than their parents and of course the exact opposite is true. The past may seem like a bowl of cherries from our vantage point but if you were there then, you would face as many problems, and probably worse problems, as today. There was never a sure bet, never a time devoid of uncertainties. Today, as ever, you just have to make your best bet and hope you are not hit on the head by a falling safe on the way home.
Posted by: sam at June 8, 2009 11:31 AM
sam -- thanks grandpa but no one's really comparing our lives to our parents' here. that was just an illustration to show why it may be more important to keep the economics in mind these days when you are looking in to real estate.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at June 8, 2009 11:39 AM
At best we are at the bottom and we will flat line for the next five years. At worst we have another 20% to go. Horrible, horrible article.
Posted by: Suburbandude at June 8, 2009 11:49 AM
The Sunday Real Estate article that Brownstoner refers to states that prices will continue to drop for the next few months and probably for a year or more. It is saying that there are more deals now, but that prices have dropped 30% from a year ago and will continue to decline. So there is no contradiction between the two articles--just a different spin.
A friend who lives in the northern burbs and has a RE blog said that the number of deals in May was almost double the previous month--so the spring bounce seems to be pretty widespread.
Posted by: shillstoner at June 8, 2009 12:19 PM
"anyone catch Bernanke on 60 minutes last night?
I felt this NY Times piece was fluffy, however most people don't understand fluff and will beleive it and might spark people to 'pull the trigger' instead of trying to wait it out."
The banks understand fluff and are not 'leaving their feet'. They have locked the trigger on safety and have thrown away the key.
"all of the theories about when to buy and sell to 'maximize' market return are just not valid for most people"
But 'most people' bought into "buy now or forever be priced out" and the security of "prices only go up". The boom needed that to do what it did. The decision to buy in these cases was almost purely market-based. Home ownership is almost never a necessity. There are always alternatives, maybe not in the toniest parts of Brooklyn.
I guess to qualify for Team Reasonable, you have to already own a home. No? Any such members out there rent?
"Ever hear of first and second derivatives, cornerbodega?"
I have, DIBS. f''(NY Case-Shiller) << 0. Prices falling faster and faster and faster than before. It means nobody's honking and Manhattan's bounce is nowhere to be found in Brooklyn (all-out exodus of the high-end seller/buyer/renter).
If giving cornerbodega a calculus quiz wasn't 'going off on a tangent', I don't know what is? In no way are those numbers bullish.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 8, 2009 12:21 PM
"At best we are at the bottom..."
Not when f'' < 0 (price drops accelerating).
"the number of deals in May was almost double the previous month--so the spring bounce seems to be pretty widespread"
A spike in volume in this environment means only one thing: plummeting prices. Data not yet available but you will see.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 8, 2009 12:26 PM
Summary: it's fucking over....
The What (Why are we arguing this shit???!!)
Someday this delusion is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at June 8, 2009 12:30 PM
What,
this morning on the subway I saw someone reading a book titled "what is the What". Have you read that book? Is that where you got the name?
Posted by: sam at June 8, 2009 12:51 PM
"I guess to qualify for Team Reasonable, you have to already own a home. No? Any such members out there rent?"
Not at all. Had I already been renting I would have continued to do so for the foreseeable future but I needed to sell a coop last year and made what I thought was the best decision I could make about where to buy next (replete with compromises a plenty). Team Reasonable is a mindset rather than a Team with a financial agenda to pursue. The mindset is one of inclusion and understanding and is therefore open to anyone who chooses to look at living in Brooklyn from a broader perspective than housing prices, and who chooses to set aside the finger pointing and derision one sees on both sides of the argument. I personally am sick of being lumped in the caricature of the marauding yuppy masses just as I am sure Miss Muffett is sick of being ridiculed and abused for her choice to sell at peak market and wait out the fall. If life had a rule book to follow that applied to everyone all the time it would be easy to say one person or another made a bad choice but every person faces a completely different set of variables that render their options unique from everyone else's. Team Reasonable seeks to lessen the rancor found on this board and to foster a broader understanding of what living in Brooklyn is all about. Renters absolutely welcome. As are you BHO, provided you can resist the urge to poke us buyers in the eye at any given opportunity.
Posted by: wasder at June 8, 2009 12:52 PM
"The What" is a song by Notorious BIG.
Posted by: mopar at June 8, 2009 2:11 PM
"The mindset is one of inclusion and understanding and is therefore open to anyone who chooses to look at living in Brooklyn from a broader perspective than housing prices"
But this is a market thread. I don't intend to poke you buyers in the eye. I responsd to nonsense (not particularly from you) with sense. I'm just a home price activist speaking the gospel about the market as I know it. Prices need to come down, way down, to make sense.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 8, 2009 2:37 PM
"a home price activist" !?
Posted by: mopar at June 8, 2009 3:43 PM

Post a comment
Please be patient while your comment is published. It may take a moment.