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June 19, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Comment: At least deals are happening.
Open House Picks 12/12/09 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]

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3rd st is in contract for $1,687,500

Posted by: longtimelistenerr at June 19, 2009 1:00 PM

The bulls and the bears should have a field day with this list.

Posted by: iz at June 19, 2009 1:03 PM

-10.9%. Rack another one up for Team Bull. Thanks longtime.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 19, 2009 1:04 PM

so maybe just the bears.

Posted by: iz at June 19, 2009 1:05 PM

This is why Deutschebank said yesterday we still have a long way to fall in NYC - this is just the beginning.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 19, 2009 1:19 PM

Comps, people, comps. You need to compare closes to comps, not asks. We've been over this.

I don't prognosticate on the RE market, but I do care a bit about logic. MM, it seems entirely tautological to take the fact that the market has not fallen as far as you think it should as proof that it still has further to fall. It could just as easily be proof that it won't fall as far as you think it will. We don't know yet; time will tell. Your conclusion may prove correct but your logic is flawed.

Posted by: slopefarm at June 19, 2009 1:29 PM

My logic is based on numerous recent market analyses (yesterday's DB was just the latest) from respected sources.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 19, 2009 1:40 PM

what's with the teeny type, can barely read it, is it just my computer?

Posted by: sam at June 19, 2009 1:41 PM

What I see: This admittedly unrepresentative sample accords with recent news reports that sales have picked up but prices are still low.

Slopefarm, exactly what I was trying to say the other day, but you put it much more clearly.

Posted by: mopar at June 19, 2009 1:45 PM

That's not what you said, today, MM. Perhaps if you explained what "this" refers to in your statement "this is why Deutschebank . . ." It seemed to me you were referring to the sales listed above as proof that the DB statement is correct. What is it in the sale prices in this thread that prove the DB statement to be correct in your mind?

P.S. Thanks, mopar.

Posted by: slopefarm at June 19, 2009 1:50 PM

6 3rd Street is in Carrol Gardens, not Park Slope. Great nabe, just a different one from the one you listed it as being in.

The rental has a great configuration: 2 bedrooms and they did an excellent job of preserving access to the cellar for the owner's triplex. Good price considering it's a smaller lot, too--the dimensions are only 19x80.

I just dug up a Brownstoner HOTD thread that had it listing at $975k in November of 2007, and PropertyShark says it closed in August 2008 for $975k. If the above closing price of $1.68 is correct, this looks like it would be a solid flip, in spite of going on the market at a terrible time. I can't imagine they had anywhere near $600k in reno, financing, & carrying costs.

But yowza, how much work did they really get done in the 4 months before they put it on the market? Did they put it out before they were done and keep working?

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2007/11/house_of_the_da_407.php

Posted by: bkrules at June 19, 2009 2:01 PM

"This is why Deutschebank said yesterday we still have a long way to fall in NYC"

Prediction minus snapshot. Makes perfect sense to me.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 19, 2009 2:07 PM

so things are chugging along. those hurt by the recession are in bad shape but those who aren't, aren't.
the question is where is the local economy headed? how long until the next round of multi-million dollar bonuses?

Posted by: sam at June 19, 2009 2:08 PM

Prices won't fall if deals don't get done. Everything's going down down down if at all. Nothing new here.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 19, 2009 2:17 PM

Little Miss Muffet
"...this is just the beginning"
Every day is new

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 19, 2009 2:30 PM

BrooklynGreene,

when can I stop by to check out your place for that 999k you mentioned? Is it now 1.999M given mkt is a lot better? how about I rent your lower duplex?

Posted by: more4less at June 19, 2009 2:56 PM

Amazing that some idiots don't realize that when reports calling for 40-50% down, its for the next few years. And yes the sales trends sure are looking that way. Amazing we still have people like Mopar and slopefarm who continue to engage without this basic understanding. WTf!?

Posted by: cornerbodega at June 19, 2009 2:58 PM

RE: "This is why Deutschebank said yesterday we still have a long way to fall in NYC - this is just the beginning."

Isn't listening to the folks at Deutschebank one of the reasons we're in this whole mess? I'd be very cautious paying any attention to their, ahem, "predictions," from past experience.

Posted by: iz at June 19, 2009 2:58 PM

"Slopefarm, exactly what I was trying to say the other day, but you put it much more clearly."

Yup--slopefarm is the most cogent, clear thinking writer we have here on these pages.

Posted by: wasder at June 19, 2009 3:00 PM

Bonuses will be coming back in 2009, I think. I work at UBS Investment Bank where morale is duly terrible. Now that other financial firms are making money, everyone is leaving here in search of bonuses. Other Fixed Income trading desks are cashing in on wide spreads and government backing. That's not to say that everyone is making money or is even safe, but there will be bonuses next year. Even UBS is starting to pay again because of the exodus.

Posted by: FatLenny at June 19, 2009 3:09 PM

FatLenny, bonuses will help the bank balance, etc. but do you feel confident in enough (job security and continuing of bonuses,...) to go buy an very expensive house? That's the key for NYC prices. if folks at the banks are confident to buy, prices will stabilize. if not, I see no other group of buyers big & rich enough to stop this downward trend in prices

Posted by: more4less at June 19, 2009 3:17 PM

Thanks, wasder, but don't overdo it. I'm not paying you that much. We still need to meet for a drink.

Posted by: slopefarm at June 19, 2009 3:17 PM

Hello More4Less,
Past performance, no guarantee...
Nix on the duplex

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 19, 2009 3:36 PM

Honestly though m4l - don't you think it's a sign prices are out of whack when only ONE group of people in the city can afford to buy anything substantial?

Posted by: dirty_hipster at June 19, 2009 3:53 PM

Buyers will neither have the appetite nor the ability to leverage as they once did, but if the worst is behind us (a big "if" in my opinion), then there will be an uptick in consumer confidence, including confidence in housing. It seems conceivable that we'll hit a bottom this year or early next year. That anything is selling at a good price right now is a positive sign. I don't think it's because of "idiot buyers," as Team Bear would have it.

Posted by: FatLenny at June 19, 2009 3:56 PM

DH, my point is I view the bank employees as the single biggest group who has the ability to be loose with their $$$ (ie paying good prices to ppties to stop the drop). Let's not kid ourselves, they'll remain the biggest group of big spenders in NYC. If they're loose with their $$$, it puts big pressure onto rest of us buyers in either come join in on the big bids or stay out. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), one has to make big $$$ in order to CHOOSE to be loose with the $$$ and bid big on a ppty

Posted by: more4less at June 19, 2009 4:19 PM

FL is right - the banks are in for a bumper year. Q2 has been rocking for the reasons mentioned, bid offer widened and increasing market share for remaining players. Tarp repayment makes some shops even stronger. Only issue could be the payment of bonus in restricted stock which typically takes 3 years to vest. Having said that we're seeing staff departures at a good clip to hedge funds as people look for cash $ rather than stock compensation. There will be more $ around come early 2010, question is how will real estate as an asset class be impacted. ? My guess is that more $ will come in but nothing like 06 / 07 vintage. As with any point in peoples lives they should look at all asset classes and their own risk tolerance and invest accordingly. If may be foolish to simply ignore real estate in that regard.

As for DB commentary, they are hardly top tier. Check out their conviction buy list, it typically changes daily without explanation.

Posted by: 10thStreetReno at June 19, 2009 4:40 PM

slope--email me. Would love meet up.

Posted by: wasder at June 19, 2009 4:58 PM

DB's argument is that prices are unaffordable, hence they must fall. That's rich. It's been that way for over 200 years, and the people who write these reports are among the elite in terms of buying power.

Posted by: mopar at June 19, 2009 6:16 PM

Bromance meet Guy Date
Haiku high jinks on the web
Slow Food meet Pub Grub

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 19, 2009 6:45 PM

Miss Muffet,what do you want to bet that everything looks better for a while and then when all this money being injected into the economy is spent, or no one wants to buy US bonds anymore, things nosedive? Say maybe in a year or two. And then in even more years, after the US switches to another currency, things really crater? Say maybe in three.

Can't predict, though. Anything could happen. But that's my pessimistic feeling.

Posted by: mopar at June 19, 2009 11:36 PM

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June 19, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

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