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June 16, 2009

Last Week's Biggest Sales

biggest%20sales%20june%2016.jpg

1. PARK SLOPE $3,150,000
615 Third Street GMAP (left)
When this 4,552-square-foot brick and limestone two-family was a House of the Day in February, it was asking $3.8 million; the price was cut to $3.4 mil the next month. The house, which was built by an architect for himself in 1899, last sold for $2,850,000 in mid-2006. Entered into contract on 4/21/09; closed on 5/28/09; deed recorded on 6/10/09.

2. FORT GREENE $2,250,000
316 Cumberland Street GMAP (right)
House o' the Day writeup on this in April, when it was listed for $2,295,000, went as follows: "316 Cumberland Street has a huge parlor floor to die for, with intricate plaster ceilings and an extension that houses the modern kitchen. The house has also been upgraded recently with all new systems and windows as well. It's being used as a one-family but the ground-floor can easily be converted to a rentable apartment. All this sounds great but it will be interesting to see if it can pull off a price that's similar to some of the nicer homes currently on the market in Park Slope." Question answered. Entered into contract on 5/7/09; closed on 6/1/09; deed recorded on 6/12/09.

3. GRAVESEND $1,890,500
1927 East 1st Street GMAP
This is a 1,440-sf, two-family house, according to Property Shark. Entered into contract on 5/19/09; closed on 6/1/09; deed recorded on 6/10/09.

4. BAY RIDGE $1,300,000
135 86th Street GMAP
A 4,923-sf, three-family, according to PropShark. Entered into contract on 3/10/09; closed on 6/4/09; deed recorded on 6/10/09.

5. MIDWOOD $1,200,000
462 East 27th Street GMAP
A 2,385-square-foot, two-family house, says Property Shark. Entered into contract on 4/24/09; closed on 5/27/09; deed recorded on 6/10/09.

Photos from Property Shark.

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Comments

Seems that the "Brownstones Half Off" thang ain't going so well.

Can't deny the facts.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 11:33 AM

since you added that appraisal feature - Should have included that on Cumberland.
Now what did those ace Brownstoner appraisers think Cumberland would sell for? how accurate were they?

Posted by: Petebklyn at June 16, 2009 11:34 AM

$1,891,000 Pete.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 11:35 AM

and how much did the 3rd street house sell above 2006 price?

Posted by: Petebklyn at June 16, 2009 11:38 AM

Wow great for the Ft. Greene Place! - sellers obviously didn't have to come down much on the price

Posted by: gemini10 at June 16, 2009 11:38 AM

the park slope sale is, quite simply, bullish...

Posted by: 7182713 at June 16, 2009 11:38 AM

Hi all!

I'm back and just wanted to cut and paste this nice tidbit from Miss Muffet from the Ft. Greene house thread:

**
"Pretty house and I like that area. But I think more4less is right - any buyers with deep pockets will drive a harder bargain these days. That's my strategy since we'll be financing a small portion if anything, but as a result, can leverage that to our advantage in this climate. It works, from what brokers are telling me."

This was in response to M4L saying it would go for 1.8-1.9 million.

Any thoughts, MM?

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 11:39 AM

I am really shocked by this. These look and feel like last year's prices to me. We looked at the Cumberland place and loved it, but thought it was about 2 hundred over priced. Truly shocked. I guess this could bode well for sellers, not so well for buyers in the "luxury" market. Both of these places were essentially one family homes in impeccable condition and with very tasteful renovations. They're selling, and at big prices.

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 11:39 AM

No Nolissa, this does not "bode well for sellers," it means almost nothing. It makes no sense to extrapolate anything from the "biggest sales of the week." It's not a representative sample. It would be like highlighting which four stocks had the greatest gains of the week during the stock market dive last fall. Even then there were stocks hitting new 52 week highs and having good weeks. If you just looked at the top four or five stocks every week, (or on the other hand, the worst four or five) what would that tell you - nothing. You must look at a much larger sample and probably use the mean to even out the outliers.

Posted by: Brooklynnative at June 16, 2009 11:47 AM

It's a rout for Team Bull!!

Posted by: benson at June 16, 2009 11:48 AM

I think its pretty simple with these two properties. They are both very nice and there's a real lack of inventory out there of what is nice.

There are people out there with money who want "very nice" and at a price point of $2MM - $3MM, another hundred thousand or two hundred thousand makes no difference if you really like it.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 11:51 AM

Fort Greene, 2.25MM. If you have that kind of money, I just don't get why you'd spend it there. I lived there for three years. Two friends mugged, cops shot, etc. The massive housing projects around there are never going anywhere. Ever. Good luck with the "marauding teens" (in this morning's news links).

Park Slope, I kind of get it. But not fort greene.

Posted by: joe_the_bummer at June 16, 2009 11:55 AM

I like this one from Sam:

"The big question: is Cumberland Street a two million dollar street? At that price, it's all about prestige and showing-off. Is this likely to be perceived as a prestige address? I really don't know. Will mums and pops in Tuxedo Park be impressed? Will the best friends in Napa Valley be impressed? Or will they say: 2.3 miilion to live where??
It's all about ego at this price point you know."

The answer I guess was yes for these buyers. Either that, or they don't have as large an ego as Sam thinks all buyers of 2 million dollar homes must have.

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 11:56 AM

Brooklynnative, your point is well taken. BUT, how many brownstones/limestones sold last week in "Brownstone" Brooklyn??

More specifiaclly, to my point, how large is the inventory for quality properties like this?? I bet its somewhere between 20 - 50. That's pretty small given the population size here.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 11:56 AM

but, but, but ..... I keep telling people that real estate prices are only going down?

I guess my $1 million doesn't go as far as I think it should.

Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at June 16, 2009 11:57 AM

"There are people out there with money who want "very nice" and at a price point of $2MM - $3MM, another hundred thousand or two hundred thousand makes no difference if you really like"

I think this is dead on (and I don't often find myself agreeing with DIBS's market view.) But I would have thought that this is exactly why reading anything into the general market from this feature is a bad idea. On the margins price becomes less of an issue. As an anology, just because a few people still drop 400k on a Ferrari doesn't mean that 80k BMws won't need a price adjustment. Much less the 25k Mazda's. Doesn't mean they will, just that one thing really doesn't tell you much about the other.

Posted by: Ledbury at June 16, 2009 12:01 PM

Just to stir things up seems a great reward in itself.

Posted by: Expert Textpert at June 16, 2009 12:03 PM

Feeling good about my own prediction on the original thread:

"great house, great location. if any house of recent vintage on here deserves to sell for 2 million its this one."

Special houses in great locations still sell. The bubble bursting has taken the wind out of much of the market but certain houses are nice enough to overcome those forces.

Posted by: wasder at June 16, 2009 12:05 PM

Also, I agree that, now that we have some properties selling that have been "appraised" on here we should use those in the wrap up posts like these. Good or bad, it would be interesting to see whether prevailing opinion here mirrors sales.

Posted by: wasder at June 16, 2009 12:11 PM

How about a weekly listing of the properties longest on the market - check out streeteasy - it offers that as an option. Some very nice brownstones are not selling. Or, how about a listing of properties taken off of the market because they couldn't sell? I think the open house picks 6 months later are at least a somewhat random sample and offer much less support for team bull.
Even that weekly listing offers more attractive properties but week after week, the properties north of a million aren't selling. There are well-known finance hurdles right now. No way team bull advances without that working itself out first. Maybe it will, I have little to base my opinion on, but it seems to me mortgages rates are heaing north and there is little reason to think banks are going to open up the spigots again. Until then, team bear will ignore "last week's biggest" sales as an unrepresentative samplee.

Posted by: Brooklynnative at June 16, 2009 12:13 PM

I would have expected the 3rd Street place to trade for under $3 million. Maybe closer to $2.75 million, and frankly I wouldn't have been particularly shocked by a $2.5 million price. I am not familiar with the Fort Greene property and can't offer a view on that price. I have been predicting for some time that prices would hold up better for prime single owner properties on prime park blocks than in the rest of the market, though I question whether this particular buyer will be able to get his money back out any time soon.

These data points do not change my view that there is a very strongly negative bias in the condo market, particularly anything even close to a fringe area, and a negative bias in the medium to high end condo and coop markets.

In any event I don't think the biggest sales of the week are a good indication of the broader market. From what I see, there is, to my surprise, actually a fair amount of stagnation in the high-end Park Slope brownstone market. For whatever reason this buyer was willing to pay this price for this property. It would be reckless to extrapolate from this data point that there are many buyers being willing to pay similar prices for similar properties.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 12:14 PM

Posted by: Brooklynnative at June 16, 2009 12:16 PM

"In any event I don't think the biggest sales of the week are a good indication of the broader market."

Agreed Senor Jackal. Though it is interesting to track particular properties that you like. I really liked that Cumberland house. Would love to live in that area and loved the reno so for me its interesting to see if what I like sells or not.

Posted by: wasder at June 16, 2009 12:16 PM

lechscal - 3rd street closed in a month - suggesting a cash buyer - this is significant...

Posted by: 7182713 at June 16, 2009 12:22 PM

7182713: In that case I am even more surprised that they didn't get a much better deal. Sellers dream of getting buyers who are all cashed up and not particularly motivated by price. Maybe this was one. But extrapolate from this a broader market trend at your peril.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 12:27 PM

I don't see anyone extrapolating anything here. No one is trying to say that these 2 sales are indicative of the broader market I don't think. But to use these two sales as an indication of anything negative is also quite silly.

It is what it is...2 gorgeous houses sold fast and for great prices. End of story.

Lechacal...I am still a firm believer that there are some people who buy homes with no thought as to "getting his money back out anytime soon." For some, these homes are like collecting fine artwork or jewelry. You want to have it, and will pay a premium for it. Added bonus: you get to live in it and enjoy for as long as you please.

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 12:29 PM

11217 - I agree with lechacal that "Biggest Sales" are not a great barometer of the market since they are by definition outliers. Lack of inventory has been a big reason propping up some sales, but there seems to be growing inventory as many homes are asking too much and just lingering. But for sure, there are always exceptions to the rule.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 16, 2009 12:35 PM

am surprised by by how quickly & strong that ft greene place sold for. ft greene is hot now cause we even have a huge park slope booster cheering for it.

BTW, besides Nokilissa, who is shopping at this high atmospheric budget? This is nice to know transactions. As DIBS said these buyers couldn't care about 200-300k diff, that's a different world from us folks with modest budgets.

Posted by: more4less at June 16, 2009 12:37 PM

Miss Muffet,

But you specifically said that you agreed with M4L and that the Ft. Greene house would sell for 1.8 million. You were over 400K off.

You have also said repeatedly that we are down to what, 2004 prices, and the Park Slope house sold for 2,850,000 in 2006 and sold today in 2009 for 300K over its 2006 price.

I appreciate your viewpoint, but it doesn't really hold much water when you are proven wrong with specific data and then you brush it aside.

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 12:42 PM

agreed that the biggest sales are not a good indicator of general market trends. also, unusually strong (or weak) prices for individual properties illustrate the particular difficulty of price/sqft comparisons, or price/bdr comparisons. even within a given subsection of a single neighborhood, even when only considering renovated (or unrenovated) properties, there remain hard to quantify qualities that strongly affect the price of individual homes.

whether it's 'open house picks 6 months later' or 'last week's biggest sales', extrapolation to larger market trends is really speculative. you only start to get somewhere when you look at large aggregates of properties. but, of course, then you cannot account for the individual home that will sell for higher or lower than expected based on unique qualities.

as tempting as it is to take these posts as signs of some trend, you almost might as well be reading goat's intestines.

Posted by: perhaps at June 16, 2009 12:43 PM

Some things you can buy for the price of the 3rd Street house:

- Around 1,000 first class round trip tickets to Paris; enough to live in the first class cabin of an Air France jet, getting served hand and foot, for almost two years straight).

- Enough gasoline to drive around the world over 1,000 times.

- Over $150,000 in interest, every year for the rest of your life, if invested at 5%.

- College tuition for 30 underprivileged kids.

- Around 10 brand new Rolls Royces.

- A really nice car, a nice sailboat, a nice house on the ocean AND arond $75,000 a year in interest payments for the rest of your life -- if you live in Maine.

You get the point.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 12:46 PM

I find it amusing that the same folks who trumpet every cut in asking price (which is not tied to the market pricing) brush off ACTUAL market data.

Inconvenient data?

Posted by: benson at June 16, 2009 12:46 PM

I'm not brushing this off - sure I was wrong in this case. But these are the BIGGEST sales, not a statistical sampling. If open house picks 6 months later start showing data that support prices remaining high (which they do not), then I will be wrong in my overall predictions. But I think Biggest sales are inherently prone to being exceptions to the rule. Also, I certainly do NOT think we're at 2004 prices now, which is why I'm waiting - we are slowly sliding down (as the OH 6 months later threads show) but no way near a bottom.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 16, 2009 12:54 PM

Muffie;

If you want to base a discussion on statistics, as you state above, then I would ask you to refrain from citing cuts in ASKING price in future discussions. The asking price is NOT the market. Cite some statistics from market data.

Also, if you want statistics, then please do not cite anecdotes that a "broker" or "friend" provided.

Fair is fair,right?

;-)

Posted by: benson at June 16, 2009 1:05 PM

MM, we all understand the 3rd Street house is ONE sale - but it is a SALE - Benson is correct - ask has no meaning - what is entirely relevant is the comp vs 2006 - this is right in your wheelhouse and we have, clearly, a high end buyer, buying...I realize you are bid below, but, clearly, you will not be living on a park block in Park Slope. I don't care what you say, a cash sale like this has to make you nervous...this is not 50% off the highs...

Posted by: 7182713 at June 16, 2009 1:10 PM

But Benson, many of the OH 6 months later show reduced SALES prices, right? Is that not market data?

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 16, 2009 1:10 PM

Here again we have the same debate. These are prime houses, in beautiful condition, and they fetched good prices, even in this market. I remain skeptical of what MM and other think will happen in 6 months. I own two high-end properties in LA. Their value was way down 6 months ago, and has now recovered significantly. I just received a strong offer for one, although it is still 10% off what it would have been at the height of the market.( But, it is 10% more than it would have been at the bottom.) Things may be settling. Less desirable properties in less desirable neighborhoods always fall more and take longer to recover. The essentials of living in Park Slope or Brooklyn Heights have not changed. Yes houses were overpriced. This has been corrected, in some cases substantially. The biggest sales are not a statistic sampling, but they often set a tone that is compelling to both buyers and sellers.

Posted by: homey at June 16, 2009 1:11 PM

I wonder why that people who was involved with the "biggest sales" don't post on Brownstoner. I think the new owners would like to tell us about their experience.

Funny the the same collection of Jagoff's jerking themselves off! Reminding each other their is a new sucker in the gene pool...

The What (Fall is coming...)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at June 16, 2009 1:12 PM

Also, I do have specific examples of sales from friends (one recently sold her prime apt for over 15% less than same apt in the bldg sold last summer, and her apt was actually much nicer in terms of renovation) but do not particularly want to violate their privacy to the whole list. There have been many, many articles of late using actual market data to prove the same points I've been making.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 16, 2009 1:13 PM

MM - sellers have certainly been off on what they think their properties are worth - these asks are adjusting downward, for sure, but you can't have it both ways - asks are irrelevant, sales are not...

Posted by: 7182713 at June 16, 2009 1:14 PM

I'm not the slightest bit nervous. Lechacal's comments on last Friday's OH picks 6 months later were fascinating, regarding how these kinds of comments are more a commentary on the posters' psychology than my own. And I'm not seeking a mansion on the park - far from it. But more power to those few exceptional gorgeous houses that get a cash-flush buyer - they are indeed exceptional in the true sense of the word.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 16, 2009 1:16 PM

C'mon lecachal, do you really need to explain to us that $3 million is a lot of money? We're not children. It's like Republicans on the Senate floor whining about the stimulus package: "If you took a trillion single-dollar bills and stacked them up, it would rise to the moon!"

Posted by: FatLenny at June 16, 2009 1:24 PM

Miss Muppett : Please admit you are wrong. Then go straight to your Psychiatrist.

Posted by: sebb at June 16, 2009 1:44 PM

You can make claim these are biggest sales - outliers - but almost any house in prime brownstone brooklyn will end up on biggest sale list.
But significance is house sold for 10+% above 2006 price.
(and Brownstoner appraisers are a bunch of asshats).
I keep asking for evidence of resales to demonstrate this drop in pricing that some people say has occured already.
I am not necessarily arguing or believe that prices have or won't go down - but I really have yet to see much hard evidence.
In slow market which almost nobody will disagree that we are in - real estate becomes less liquid but only small % of people need that liquidity. And in those cases you may find a bargain, and some stat will suggest that prices dropped considerably. But very few props really end up selling at the distressed prices and most of them are not the trophy prop some people think they will find.

Posted by: Petebklyn at June 16, 2009 1:49 PM

I am still angry that no one chose me as their agent on these sales.

I wonder what $1 million could buy me?

Posted by: ghettoazzpnkbtch at June 16, 2009 1:52 PM

so everyone's hopes that ft greene would recede back to the old days with this recession have just been shattered (for the time being, anyway). It's possible that this tiny corner of NYC has legitimately crossed the desireability threshold into that X-factor territory of tribeca/soho . . . where no matter how crappy the ACTUAL quality of life might be (and I'm not saying it is, in Ft G, yet -- so far it's definitely the dreamiest neighborhood I've ever experienced), everybody wants to live there and almost nobody can.

Or the buyers are insane.

Either way, it's a bloody nice house.

The "Maurauding teenagers/projects" comment is kinda racist, no? I mean, every nice neighborhood in NYC has marauding teens and PJs. what the fk?

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 1:56 PM

Last Weeks biggest Sales is the same as Last weeks biggest outliers. It is fun to look at but its not the trend

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 2:01 PM

On a related note, what's up with that house on Washington Park (right on FT GREENE PARK)that's been for sale for like years now and they keep cutting the price and nobody wants to buy it? It must be a wreck I guess. Wonder what it'll take to catch a buyer.
http://www.brooklynproperties.com/house175.htm

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:04 PM

So brickoven, you're saying don't go by what's actually selling? go by what isn't selling or might be selling or could have sold? I mean, you can't do "average sales" because you don't have any leveling criteria -- average sales of 3,500 sq ft brownstones in the brownstone brooklyn area? maybe? I don't know it seems like calling the biggest sales "exceptions" is naive. It might not be sign of a trend but it's not irrelevant either.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:08 PM

Iz if you think Fort Greene is anything like SOHO all i have to say is BWAHAHAHHAHAH. anyway markets have hit there highs for the year and the state of California is about to go BK. But dont worry I am sure that all those models in Soho will start hitting the bars in Fort Greene to watch the gand wars

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 2:10 PM

a million and a half bottles of malt liquor, oh my

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at June 16, 2009 2:10 PM

"but there seems to be growing inventory"

Seems is not factual. Here is the inventory data which IS decreasing. Miss Muffet loves to trumpet what seems, but some of us still prefer the hard data.

1 day 7 day 30 day
New Listings 59 377 1,592
Price Cuts 20 173 515
Contracts Signed 40 222 981
Total Inventory 10,567 10,584 10,860

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 2:13 PM

So we have two prime homes selling like it was 2006.

These data points are irrelevant?

Wonder if they would still be "irrelevant" if the prices were down 40% off of 2006.

Posted by: MR at June 16, 2009 2:14 PM

Iz Iz Iz, I am saying when you buy something on Margin like a house you had better make sure you are not overpaying and if you are using outliers as a baseline you are going to be a schlub borrowing money from youre parents youre whole life. Iz do you know what an outlier is?

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 2:15 PM

11217 - thanks for the data, what was the source? I've been following specific properties and seeing many of them linger. But I'll be sure to check out your source.

That said, hard data has been reported by plenty of reputable news sources, which point to growing price declines.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at June 16, 2009 2:24 PM

Well, clearly we don't all agree on the direction of the market. Nothing to get very excited about. It looks like I may sign another 12 month lease, which will take me out of the market until at least next year. I am comfortable doing so because I am pretty confident that prices are going to continue to go down in the markets that are relevant to me. These sales don't change my mind for the reasons I articulated above. I have considered the risks and am happy to take the risk that prices go up rather than down. Bottom line: I am actually making a decision. And frankly, unless you actually find yourself needing to make a buy or sell decision, you're basically just playing with yourself. Not that there's anything wrong with that, of course, but I think we can distinguish those who have to put their money where their mouths are from those who are here for more recreational purposes.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 2:26 PM

Iz, I can't speak for everyone surely, but as someone who is looking at homes in Ft. Greene and the North Slope, I can tell you that the house on Washington Place is sitting because it is overpriced, is not in nearly the condition of the house on Cumberland (or that gem of a house that sold for 3mill back in March of 2008 on Adelphi) is broken up, and is located, to put it gently, a half block away from an enormous housing project. The one that just sold at 2.25 is on one of the prettiest and most convenient blocks in Ft. Greene - in our estimation - and about 20 steps from a subway entrance and a nice park with a playground.

I also think those of you who are dismissing this as indicating nothing important in the "higher end" market are kidding yourselves. These were two surprisingly high and quick sales which will be watched and definitely used for comps by buyers, sellers and agents alike.

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 2:29 PM

Here are a couple other high priced properties which have very recently gone to contract:

http://www.bhsbrooklyn.com/detail.asp?id=1002646

http://www.bhsbrooklyn.com/detail.asp?id=992516

Nokilissa: Have you looked at this one yet...?

http://www.bhsbrooklyn.com/detail.asp?id=1003873

The price has been cut, and it's starting to look like a good deal to me...

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 2:34 PM

Brickoven, I assume an outlier is an "exception" (see my comment) to the norm. As in this definition of outlier: "A value far from most others in a set of data".

And there's already plenty of models at those bars. Not so much the gang wars. Are you in wisconsin?

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:35 PM

"I am saying when you buy something on Margin like a house"

Now there's a new line from one of the semi-financially-literate Team Bear members!!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 2:42 PM

Noki, thanks for the insight on that house. It put a tiny dent in my drool.

But you mentioned the whitman houses. Is it just me or is that housing complex a pretty tame example of the big bad brooklyn projects? I only ask cause I hang out in front of them on a daily and nightly basis as a dog owner (walking in and out of FG park north and south at all hours of the day and night) and it seems like a pretty old established community with tons of regular folks, kids, etc. . . . Kinda noisy on the weekends due to families picnicking but never any trouble with gangs, crazed teenagers or drug dealers. Can someone correct me with some horrific statistics or recent experiences?

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:42 PM

DIBS, I totally missed that zinger! AWESOME.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:43 PM

Iz:

Did you miss this today?

http://fort-greene.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/the-week-in-crime-a-rape-and-two-park-robberies/

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 2:45 PM

have tons of money, can over pay. Have little stash, have to wait. have little stash but greedy expectation, keep on dreaming.

Posted by: more4less at June 16, 2009 2:47 PM

Oh and good luck Noki, be brave, it can be frustrating and terrifying but is also SO EXCITING to be in your shoes right now. Keep your nerve, and don't get scared -- if your instincts tell you something is right, it's right. I was there three years ago and when I got handed the keys to our house right before closing, the agent said "shouldn't you be happy or at least smiling right now? you look like you've just seeen a ghost." I told him, "I am happy, but I guess it's in a different way. When you make a huge decision like this, your happiness builds over a long period of time -- but starts out as just PURE FEAR!"

I am paraphrasing of course. But anyway, it's a great time in your life, I hope you enjoy it!

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:49 PM

That's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks 11217

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:50 PM

Why are so many people so rude to / about Miss Muffett? Her view is clearly somewhat extreme, but she always seems to express herself politely. She is often not treated with the same courtesy in return.

Posted by: etson at June 16, 2009 2:50 PM

"DIBS" what are you two dating? Iz is English youre second language? You are saying a lot of stuff that I think must be lost in translation?

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 2:51 PM

There are many reasons why someone HAS to sell. far fewer reasons someone HAS to buy. Is there even a legit reason why someone HAS to buy? This doesn't need to be a debate about over all mkt drop or not. It's really about can the prospective buyers here find that seller who HAS to sell and sell at a low price. Other than that, we're really debating for the fun of it

Posted by: more4less at June 16, 2009 2:51 PM

BY AN AQUAINTANCE?????!!!!!??!?!?!?!!!

The most disturbing crime reported this week was a rape outside Applebee’s at 395 Flatbush Extension on Wednesday night. A 30-year-old woman was treated at Woodhull Hospital after being raped and robbed of her cell phone and cash by an acquaintance.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:51 PM

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 2:29 PM

EXACTLY.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 2:52 PM

Um, brickoven, I just quoted webster's on that definition. Maybe it's too complex for ya?

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 2:53 PM

"DIBS" what are you two dating? Iz is English youre second language? You are saying a lot of stuff that I think must be lost in translation?

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 2:51 PM

brickoven, NOT ONE OF THOSE SENTENCES MAKES SENSE.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 2:54 PM

so then how did you know to respond DIBS? BWHAHAHAHA, you two go cuddle in front of the bank door and dream of refinancing.

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 2:59 PM

But brickoven, it's YOU I'm attracted to . . . .

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:01 PM

11217, we saw this one just last week! Love, love, love the block, but that was about the most we could say. Probably one of the - if not THE - prettiest block in the North Slope. Honestly we just don't want to have to do a lot of renovating. I know I'll get flack for that, but it is the truth. We want to move in and be all set - or only need to do minimal stuff (i.e. a bathroom or two, removing carpeting, re-painting, opening up a fireplace etc).

This one lacked a decent sized kitchen and it felt really dated and very removed from the home. The stairs were literally falling apart. We weren't allowed to see the garden rental or the back yard. The fireplaces were all mantels or didn't exist at all (as in the parlor) no powder room on parlor floor, no en suite bath upstairs and so on. It also felt really dark and narrow, though I do understand that can be a function of paint and renovations.

Iz, you may be right about your estimation, though I think they may be "blamed" in people's imaginations for a lot of the rather scary stuff that has happened in and around that part of Ft. Greene in the last year. I am unaware of the stats, or the particulars of the Whitman Houses - hell, we actually put in an offer on a house a bit further down the street last year (owner ended up unwilling to come down from a ridiculously high price and took it off the market - was right across the street from the playground). I just think that has likely played a big part in this particular house sitting. Hmmmm...that stretch of block also isn't as pretty or massively tree coated as the next either.

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 3:01 PM

The argument that "Biggest Sales" are by definition outliers is nonsensical. These houses are on the biggest sales list because they are in the highest price tier of Brooklyn real estate, not because buyers overpaid. If Slope and Fort Greene houses had gone for 40% under ask, they would still be on this list. But they did not go for 40% under ask.

Posted by: basementalist at June 16, 2009 3:02 PM

Thanks Iz! (I posted my last comment before reading your 2:49 comment).

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 3:04 PM

"But you mentioned the whitman houses. Is it just me or is that housing complex a pretty tame example of the big bad brooklyn projects?"

cop friend told me a while back that whitman houses aren't that bad - i think he mentioned that ingersoll was one to avoid ones and farragut houses were really really bad.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at June 16, 2009 3:08 PM

Good to know Nokilissa and totally understandable. I'm with you on the block, seeing as I can see this house from my apartment. ;)

It's a shame it needs so much work. There is a house right next to it (or maybe 2 away) which sold for around 2.7 million or so last year and has been undergoing a total (and what looks like a very expensive) renovation. I'm frankly surprised they are sinking so much into it, but as you say the block is near perfection, not only in its beauty but also convenience to trains, greenmarket, park, etc.

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 3:08 PM

brickoven. i think you're a "faux" brick oven, natural gas fired, not like the oak stoked wood brickoven at Saraghina. You make a second rate pie and a third rate argument.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:08 PM

Noki, this is exactly what you DONT want but I still think its a pretty cool house.
http://www.brownharrisstevens.com/detail.aspx?id=1016904

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:10 PM

DIBS, but he's still H O T. (pant pant pant pant droool pant)

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:11 PM

Has anybody in here ever taken a statistics class? I know many of you are in the arts but let me explain something to you. When you are looking at the most expensive sales of a group it is by definition the outliers. People read a Malcolm Gladwell book and think they are math wizards :)

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 3:11 PM

11217, you're kidding! We coulda been neighbors! ;)

You are lucky sir. That is one gorgeous block. Maybe some day we'll run into each other and not even know it. I'll be the really, really, REALLY polite and respectful stroller mom with the exceedingly handsome and nearly unbelievably well-behaved young boys in tow. :) Honest!

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 3:12 PM

"Has anybody in here ever taken a statistics class?"

aren't outliers +/- 2 standard deviations from the mean in a bell curve? I hated stats class.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at June 16, 2009 3:14 PM

statistics schmatistics. Tell me what you're wearing.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:15 PM

Nokilissa:

It's probably a little farther into Center Slope than you might like, but have you seen this one...?

http://www.corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&ListingID=1545546&ohDat=6/21/2009%2012:00:00%20AM;

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 3:15 PM

Noki, this is exactly what you DONT want but I still think its a pretty cool house.
http://www.brownharrisstevens.com/detail.aspx?id=1016904

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:10 PM

But that's exactly what I want and want it in that location, iz.

I just don't have the time for a renovation right now. maybe in a year or so.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:16 PM

Dirty Hipster, I heard the same thing from MY cop friend (a girl, tho, but they probably work in the same precinct). And apparently they're emptying the whitman houses out in some nefarious plot to convert them to some other more financially lucrative use. Which is disgusting and repellent and no matter how bad the stigma of PJs is, the people in the larger FT G community shouldnt stand for that kind of mass eviction. bUt that's another topic. Anyway . . .

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:17 PM

So far I think 10 people OTHER THAN brickoven have accurately defined outliers. He's just mentioned a bestseller.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:18 PM

I'm sure we would love each other in real life, Noki. I'm not nearly as obnoxious in person, and I'm actually a fan of all of the moms and kids in the neighborhood. They don't bother me one bit, and I'm known to help a stroller mom in need down the stairs nearly every morning at Grand Army Plaza train stop. ;)

I'll keep you posted if I hear of anything else around...the neighbors all talk, so occasionally I hear about a house going up for sale before it's even listed.

Posted by: 11217 at June 16, 2009 3:19 PM

hey brickoven....they may be outliers when trying to figure mean or average price of a house in brooklyn....but not so if trying to find trends as at least one is one of these us a recent resale.
And not outlier when trying to see how good at appraising Brownstone readers are.
I am looking for examples of resales where closing price is lower than last couple of years.
For example - there is a condo in bldg next to me where asking price is 925k....which is only 25k higher than closed for in 2006. I would then expect final sale to be lower than 2006 (but yet to happen-but when it does I may have one ).

Posted by: Petebklyn at June 16, 2009 3:19 PM

Oh wow. Seriously Iz, that is really one of those romantic old beauties with nearly perfect dimensions. And the front porch is to die for. This would take a buyer with some serious ovum (or balls) though. Think they can get a million for it? I cannot fathom what needs to go into restoring it in terms of cost and time.

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 3:20 PM

DIBS, buy it and live in the attic or something for a year, take it slowly. Man I LOVE that house. ANd it's a stone's throw from my fave house in the neighborhood, that little federal one with the porch that's "behind" olea on Adelphi. I've stood in front of that little piece of heaven like a stalker at least 100 times already.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:20 PM

Noki, I think it'll take a good mil to bring it back, unless you're an architect or contractor by profession, then you can probably creatively do it in half that, over a long period of time.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 3:22 PM

You are all getting way to twisted up in this "outlier" thing. The point is, at least for the 3rd Street place, that the transaction is pretty relevant for top-end houses on park blocks in Park Slope, but much less relevant for a lot of other real estate if you are trying to look for comps. It's not a statistical anomaly, it's just relevant for a narrow class of similarly situated properties. If you are trying to sell new condos on 4th Avenue, you shouldn't be out buying champagne because of this news.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 3:23 PM

iz....my favorite is the one on vanderbuilt, yellow, with the widow's walk, Can't emember the original owner's name by which the house is referred

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:24 PM

Iz - re: whitman houses

wow - how exactly are they getting away with that? there is public housing all over nyc in areas that are now "desireable" emptying out one could set a dangerous precedent.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at June 16, 2009 3:28 PM

Lechacal, I'll definitely agree with you on that one. It would be like saying Michael Phelp's pot smoking is effecting adversely the World Cup.

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 16, 2009 3:28 PM

It's not a statistical anomaly, it's just relevant for a narrow class of similarly situated properties. If you are trying to sell new condos on 4th Avenue, you shouldn't be out buying champagne because of this news.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 3:23 PM

YES...that's exactly the point I've been trying to make all along. The brownstone market will continue to behave differently from the condo market. They are not fungible. The majority of homeowners, especially in NYC, do not want the responsibilities of a townhouise, they want the convenience of a condo. And, there are far, far more condos on the market at any given point in time than townhouses, especially in the $2mm-4MM price range.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:35 PM

Pete Real estate is a big tanker and it takes a while to turn. My estimates are that from 2005 on is froth. I have already sold my place and will rent for the time being. If I could buy puts on the building next to you I would. I think the best way to value places now is based on rental income and we are very far from where there is true econimic value in owning a place in Brooklyn. I would guess 35 percent down from here is where stuff makes sense again but that is not factoring in deflation

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 3:37 PM

brickoven, you can buy puts on real estate. You can also short stocks and buy short ETFs.

However, you would have LOST money. SRS, the 200% leveraged short real estate ETF is DOWN 60% year to date.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:46 PM

DIBS, that yellow house is hte Skillman house. owned by 2 elderly sisters albeit I haven't seen them in a while. They probably hate the FLEA

Posted by: more4less at June 16, 2009 3:53 PM

m4l, "two elderly sisters" reminds me of the movie "Whatever Happened To Baby Jane." Do you know it??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YeDBtOun-E

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:56 PM

Dave it is too funny that you mentioned SRS. I have been killing it on that dog. Ultrashares are all great shorts but I think the fun is done with that for now. Most of SRS is not res. RE though it is commercial. If I could short Brooklyn real estate I would short Clinton Hill and Fort Greene.

Posted by: brickoven at June 16, 2009 3:57 PM

I've mentioned this data before, but I guess I'll have to put it up again. I suggest that all take a look at the SALES record for the City View Gardens condominium at 4th Ave and 2nd/3rd Street. For Property Shark, the address is 306 2nd Street, even though it is actually a 5 building complex that straddles both 2nd and 3rd Street. If you do so, you will find the following SALES data:

-2004/2005 initial closing prices from Sponsor for 3 BR simplexes: in the neighborhood of $650K.

-sale of 3BR simplex in the fall of 2007: $1.05M

-sale of 3BR simplex in the wineter of 2009: $1.03M

-asking price for 3BR currently shown on BHS website: $1.05M

I'll ask folks again: please point to your SALES data that shows that condo prices on 4th Ave are cratering.

Posted by: benson at June 16, 2009 3:58 PM

Dirty Hipster, I dont know the details so I won't say anything until I do some research. Gossip is bad, especially where the roof over people's heads is concerned.

I can assume though that there are laws by which inhabitants of public housing must abide; laws that, if not enforced, become forgotten and ignored; and laws which can suddenly become very useful tools by which to evict or "relocate" residents.

Anyway, public housing itself is problematic. There must be a way for longterm residents to be able to secure ownership of their housing at some point. The only way that communities get strong is if people feel rooted, not at the whim of some money-run gov't.

Posted by: iz at June 16, 2009 4:07 PM

benson - There are no recent sales data. As you have pointed out, sellers are not selling because they are not happy with the prices the market will pay. It's impossible to point to sales data when there are no transactions because of a valuation gap. If what you are proposing is that a seller in the market today could get over a million dollars for one of those units I would just respond that I find that unlikely and leave it at that.

Posted by: lechacal at June 16, 2009 4:11 PM

A lively and amusing discussion today without too many curse words from certain quarters I'm happy to say.

Hi Noki! Iz and Lecachal were amusing.

I have to say, I was a little stunned (though not surprised, mostly just sad) to see Woody and Dan's house is finally on the market. I never really expressed my condolences and feel guilty. Anyway, I wonder what is going on.

And, of course, how could I not mention Minnie's old house on Cumberland. Her brother bought and renovated it many years ago. He passed away and she continued to live on the ground floor for many years. The backyard had a wonderful grape over a big pergola...the kids who then bought and now just sold the house did a mod, not to my taste, yard redo.

I don't know if Minnie has Internet access but I'm sure if she finds out the asking price and now the sale price she'll promptly fall off her chair, although she wouldn't have very far to go. She's real salt of the earth. I wonder how she is doing.

I noticed the house had sold when I saw a wicker chair and table with artist's paintbrushes in a can or something like that in the front parlor floor windows. It was immediately clear someone new is living there...a real change from the mod renovator kids.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 16, 2009 5:09 PM

"They are not fungible.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 16, 2009 3:35 PM"

HEY! That's my line!

Posted by: the chicken at June 16, 2009 5:53 PM

ps I know exactly what is going to happen to house prices. But I'm not telling. It's a secret....

Posted by: the chicken at June 16, 2009 5:55 PM

Closing poetry
Haiku rolls from inner eye
Fungible orange

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 16, 2009 6:08 PM

That the LWBS feature has stayed bullish is as predictable as DIBS coming on here and doing a little chicken dance the minute it posts. It makes sense that the very most unique properties in the borough are being sold at solid if slightly softened prices; we'd be in the midst of a massive crash if they weren't. The spring selling season is over and the pattern is clear: until a combo of divorce, unemployment, and asset depreciation starts to hit the prime market, and set new comps, some people with the dosh are going to throw it at the new "It" digs in NYC, a brownstone in Brooklyn. Unlike Dave I can't pretend to know the future -from the way he talks one wonders why he isn't (and I'm serious) worth north of a hundred million dollars, he knows so much about imminent price action --but if you have the money to buy some of these houses, go ahead, put your money where your mouth is. I just don't want my money anywhere near your mouth. I'll be looking seriously in the fall, when reality sinks in. If I miss the boat, so be it.

Posted by: Whuh at June 16, 2009 7:09 PM

You can miss the boat
Another one will arrive
Invisible thread

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 17, 2009 10:25 AM

I'm in the bullish camp relative to brownstones and a big factor is the Manhattan Luxury Downgrade. For a couple living in Tribeca or the UWS that has a kid and is about to have their second or third, they can literally save money by selling their lux 3 or 4bd apt and pick up a whole, fully renovated house, for LESS, even now. So in addition to first time buyers and upgraders, due to the economy, I think you actually get downgraders buying these houses too. The bottom line is that there are not a lot of them and they are nice. With the transformation of lower manhattan to a luxury neighborhood for super wealthy parents, it is no surprise that lower brooklyn, which is right nearby, is attractive to them. All that said, of course they are not immune and asks and sales would of course be much higher had the crisis not happened. Still, the drop is not as severe as the rest of the market and the appreciation will be steeper, once (if) the market starts to recover.

Posted by: Colonel at June 17, 2009 12:09 PM

The interesting thing about both the PS and FG house is that the purchases appear to either be well over 75% cash or all cash deals.

Also, the PS house came down 20% from its initial ask. A comparable initial ask for the Cumberland house would have been $2.8 or so, which might have been floated if they had listed it last summer.

Are there enough high downpayment buyers out there for the over $2.5 million market in brownstone Brooklyn that these sales are trend indicators for the overall area?

Or are we seeing a split inthe market where great houses on great blocks are still able to command 2006 prices, but other houses are not going to move above 2004 prices?

Posted by: Boerumresident at June 17, 2009 12:11 PM

Five or four more years
The depths of our suffering
My mother made it

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at June 17, 2009 12:52 PM

"You can miss the boat
Another one will arrive
Invisible thread"

BrooklynGreene is the poet laureate of Brownstoner.

Posted by: mopar at June 17, 2009 3:30 PM

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June 16, 2009

Last Week's Biggest Sales

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