Corco: Signed Contracts Up, Inventory Down

"Condominiums and cooperatives continue to experience increases in the number of signed contracts per month, due in large part to sellers adjusting their pricing downward. The typical seasonality in the marketplace is likely also to be a factor. The availably inventory appears to have peaked, and is slowly retreating. However, it will take several more months to confirm the trend, as it may be due to other factors." — Corcoran Manhattan Monthly Market Snapshot

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DB meet Corcoran

Posted by: denton at June 18, 2009 10:21 AM

Noah at UrbanDigs has a more reasonable take on this.

Posted by: dittoburg at June 18, 2009 10:25 AM

"However, it will take several more months to confirm the trend, as it may be due to other factors"

Like the fact that real estate, especially in NYC, is seasonal and there are ALWAYS more contract signings/depletion of inventory in the spring/early summer?

Posted by: lalaland at June 18, 2009 11:14 AM

Corcoran website shows 2,127 properties for sale in Manhattan. Market snapshot says there are 6,068 listed properties in Manhattan.

Does Corcoran represent over 1/3 of sellers in Manhattan?

Not intended to be snarky - it's a genuine question.

Posted by: the chicken at June 18, 2009 11:18 AM

I see that Satori condo on Bond which your reported in April as having 6 or 8 in contract now show 15 on Corcoran site. So that one seems to have had uptick in activity.

Posted by: Petebklyn at June 18, 2009 11:27 AM

I don't think anyone is claiming that the housing market is back to the bubble times of 2001-2006 (nor should we want that), but it would appear to be stabilizing, at least somewhat.

According to urbandigs, there have been 1,073 contracts signed in the last 30 days, 255 in the last 7 days and 60 in the last day (in Manhattan). Those are very healthy numbers and do not in any way indicate the end of the world.

I think the point of the matter is that people are still buying homes, the world continues to rotate, people are still getting loans and all of the predictions by some of the most negative on this blog have ceased to come true.

Basically, we are back to normal.

Posted by: 11217 at June 18, 2009 11:43 AM

11217, I am cautiously optimistic as well. Time will tell of course, but it does appear that people are heading back in without the same fear and low expectations of the last 7 or 8 months.

Posted by: Nokilissa at June 18, 2009 12:35 PM

I'm sure there will still be some bumps along the way, Nokilissa, but housing goes up and down, as you know. The fact that we spend so much time talking so fervently about something which fluctuates constantly is rather funny in the first place.

I really only care to speak about it to prove those like the What wrong, because if we were to listen to his predictions, we should all be living in a cardboard box under the BQE by this time.

Posted by: 11217 at June 18, 2009 12:44 PM

"Basically, we are back to normal."

Guess that depends on what your normal is. Corcoran's numbers show decreasing inventory, but UrbanDigs' widget shows new listings consistently outpacing contract signings (albeit more slowly than two months ago ...).

UD's numbers also show dipping inventory, but that can't be accounted for by contract signings, regardless if more are happening or not. In other words, some of the properties disappearing from the inventory count are simply being pulled from the market, not sold.

My feeling is more deals are happening (at lower prices) but that inventory is still going to increase. With new developments releasing units and 'patient' sellers becoming less patient, there will continue to be downward pressure on prices.

I'd argue that that will continue to be the new normal going forward. Prices aren't going to stabilize, nor are they going to go up.

Posted by: JKB at June 18, 2009 1:24 PM

"After many iterations of trial and error with rather sobering data, we've created a way to 'report market conditions' that best serves our interest." - brkrpnkassbtch

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at June 18, 2009 2:21 PM

Well, there sure ain't any two families for sale where I'm looking. Everyone likes where they live, can't afford to move, and doesn't want to. There was more for sale a year ago, most of in horrible condition.

Posted by: mopar at June 18, 2009 6:30 PM

Until the banking crisis finishes playing itself out, we're not going to be fully back to normal.

Posted by: tonewlots at June 18, 2009 7:56 PM

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June 18, 2009

Corco: Signed Contracts Up, Inventory Down

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